Contracts for the Big-3

[Frank E]

And another option that Nik was talking about is just gathering some picks and prospects for Nylander, and maybe then using those when the "good defenseman" market opens up a little more down the road.

This is all under the assumption that Nylander's reported ask of $8m is palatable to some team, and that the return they're willing to give for an $8m Nylander is palatable to Dubas & co.  And I think that's a dubious assumption at best.

Just to add to the conversation earlier in one of these threads, I do think Nylander is the one to play chicken with here.  You can't not play chicken with Nylander, then try to with the other 2. The Leafs are setting the bar with Nylander, and if they give in, Matthews and Marner will know to just stick to their high-bar.

What would be interesting is if Dubas can get Matthews signed shortly here, then Marner.  If the Matthews and Marner camps collude and tell Dubas to get Nylander signed first, then they'll deal afterwards, Dubas is in a bit of a pickle.

I'm hopeful that the Leafs have gamed out these scenarios carefully, because goodness knows these 3 guys' agents sure as hell have spoken to each other about it.  If they all agree that they're sticking together with their "market price" asks, and at this point it looks like this is the case, then the Leafs are probably going to have to make a decision on one of them. 

At this point, it looks like Matthews, Marner, and Nylander, are putting the screws to Dubas, and Dubas hasn't decided what he's going to do yet. 

 

[herman]

Team getting the best player wins the trade right? Which defensemen out there are outright better at driving wins than a RW/C at 22, whose performance basement is 60 pts? And of that group, how many of them are a) on a team that needs to trade them b) going to come in more affordable than Nylander?s apparently too-high ask (~8M) because our issue is the cap crunch apparently c) has enough development curve left to grow and win with our core for years?

 

[Kin]

Just to add to the conversation earlier in one of these threads, I do think Nylander is the one to play chicken with here.  You can't not play chicken with Nylander, then try to with the other 2. The Leafs are setting the bar with Nylander, and if they give in, Matthews and Marner will know to just stick to their high-bar.

I don't personally think that's true. I think that if there was one of the three to play hardball with, it's Marner. First off, I think that if you have Nylander and Matthews signed long term the "Don't you want to play with these guys for the next 7 or 8 years" thing works better if the deals are already worked out. Secondly, by doing it with the guy you sign third, presumably next off-season you increase your chances of being able to use the team success card.

Lastly, and maybe most significantly, Marner figures to have the strongest connection the one unique thing Dubas can really offer which is playing in Toronto.

 

[sickbeast]

Team getting the best player wins the trade right? Which defensemen out there are outright better at driving wins than a RW/C at 22, whose performance basement is 60 pts? And of that group, how many of them are a) on a team that needs to trade them b) going to come in more affordable than Nylander?s apparently too-high ask (~8M) because our issue is the cap crunch apparently c) has enough development curve left to grow and win with our core for years?

No, the team getting the best player does not always win the trade.  We lost the Phil Kessel trade, big time.  Those drafts picks turned into Tyler Seguin, Dougie Hamilton, and another high pick that hasn't panned out (yet).  There are other examples of this also.  Boston went on to win the cup after this trade.  And we all know what happened to the Leafs.

 

[Kin]

Given that neither Seguin or Hamilton were particularly important in Boston's cup win and that they traded both guys for pretty unimpressive returns it's hard to really say they were huge winners there.

 

[sickbeast]

Given that neither Seguin or Hamilton were particularly important in Boston's cup win and that they traded both guys for pretty unimpressive returns it's hard to really say they were huge winners there.

Given that you argue and disagree with everyone on here constantly I'm not going to worry too much about anything you have to say.

 

[Kin]

In fact, if you look at what those respective teams have right now to show for the trades it looks like this:

Toronto:

Kasperi Kapanen
Half of Frederik Andersen
James Greenway

Boston:

Zachary Senyshyn
Jakob Forsbacks-Karlsson
Jeremy Lauzon

So right now, I think the Leafs look like long term they're doing better by the deal.

 

[mr grieves]

Team getting the best player wins the trade right? Which defensemen out there are outright better at driving wins than a RW/C at 22, whose performance basement is 60 pts?

Karlsson
Doughty
Subban
Giordano
Klingberg
Fowler
Burns
Jones
Josi
Ekman-Larsson
Pietrangelo
Hedman
Petry
Letang
Keith
Werenski
Byfuglien
Lindholm
Barrie
Parayko

Y'know... Berkshire's Top 20 defensemen, more or less.

And of that group, how many of them are a) on a team that needs to trade them b) going to come in more affordable than Nylander?s apparently too-high ask (~8M) because our issue is the cap crunch apparently c) has enough development curve left to grow and win with our core for years?

Karlsson
Doughty
Subban
Giordano
Klingberg
Fowler
Burns
Jones
Josi
Ekman-Larsson
Pietrangelo
Hedman
Petry
Letang
Keith
Werenski
Byfuglien
Lindholm
Barrie
Parayko

Dang.

Well, howsabout Valimaki/Andersson + Frolik/Czarnik + a 1st?

 

[mr grieves]

Given that neither Seguin or Hamilton were particularly important in Boston's cup win and that they traded both guys for pretty unimpressive returns it's hard to really say they were huge winners there.

If I trade you a handful of magic beans for your condo and then burn it down because I have spiders in my brain, I still won the trade, no?

The Kessel deal, from Boston's side, would probably be the ideal sort of trade for the Leafs to make with Nylander, if they have to make a trade with him. Find some GM desperate to make an impact to jump start his team by taking a shortcut. Just, y'know... skip the stupid part.

 

[Frank E]

Just to add to the conversation earlier in one of these threads, I do think Nylander is the one to play chicken with here.  You can't not play chicken with Nylander, then try to with the other 2. The Leafs are setting the bar with Nylander, and if they give in, Matthews and Marner will know to just stick to their high-bar.

I don't personally think that's true. I think that if there was one of the three to play hardball with, it's Marner. First off, I think that if you have Nylander and Matthews signed long term the "Don't you want to play with these guys for the next 7 or 8 years" thing works better if the deals are already worked out. Secondly, by doing it with the guy you sign third, presumably next off-season you increase your chances of being able to use the team success card.

Lastly, and maybe most significantly, Marner figures to have the strongest connection the one unique thing Dubas can really offer which is playing in Toronto.

We'll disagree here because I'm not sure that you can give Nylander a market deal, then give Matthews a market deal, and then try it on with Marner with any reasonable expectations of success, even given the Toronto thing.

I think they're going to play their hand as long as they can with Nylander, but maybe plan B is your way...but I don't think your strategy is plan A.

I think it's obvious the 3 of them are sticking together here, given none of them have signed a deal yet.

 

[Kin]

Given that neither Seguin or Hamilton were particularly important in Boston's cup win and that they traded both guys for pretty unimpressive returns it's hard to really say they were huge winners there.

If I trade you a handful of magic beans for your condo and then burn it down because I have spiders in my brain, I still won the trade, no?

Seems like a pretty hollow victory to me. Especially if I then trade the Magic Beans for something better than a burned down condo.

But more to the point with the Kessel trade, if you give me 100 dollars for a 10 dollar raffle ticket and you end up winning 125 bucks with it, did you win the trade or did things just sort of ultimately work out for you?

 

[mr grieves]

I think it's obvious the 3 of them are sticking together here, given none of them have signed a deal yet.

Doubt the players are that organized, but I think maybe you're right about the agents.

If the Leafs' cap structure is going to look like other top-heavy contenders, how much money do they have for the 3 of them? $34m or so? Dubas should just let the players figure it out. I'm all for that.

 

[Kin]

I think it's obvious the 3 of them are sticking together here, given none of them have signed a deal yet.

I think the fact that none of them have signed is a better indication that Dubas is going to try his best to negotiate with all three of them for as best as he can do, rather than there being some sort of conspiracy afoot.

 

[mr grieves]

But more to the point with the Kessel trade, if you give me 100 dollars for a 10 dollar raffle ticket and you end up winning 125 bucks with it, did you win the trade or did things just sort of ultimately work out for you?

If the Islanders or Red Wings offered you their 2019 1st and 2nd and their 2020 1st for Nylander, would you not take it?

 

[Kin]

But more to the point with the Kessel trade, if you give me 100 dollars for a 10 dollar raffle ticket and you end up winning 125 bucks with it, did you win the trade or did things just sort of ultimately work out for you?

If the Islanders or Red Wings offered you their 2019 1st and 2nd and their 2020 1st for Nylander, would you not take it?

With the Leafs as close as they are to competing seriously I would probably not choose to leave such a big part of their future up to something entirely beyond their control.

 

[Frank E]

I think it's obvious the 3 of them are sticking together here, given none of them have signed a deal yet.

I think the fact that none of them have signed is a better indication that Dubas is going to try his best to negotiate with all three of them for as best as he can do, rather than there being some sort of conspiracy afoot.

I don't think conspiracy is the right word there, unionizing is what I was describing. 

 

[Hobbes]

But more to the point with the Kessel trade, if you give me 100 dollars for a 10 dollar raffle ticket and you end up winning 125 bucks with it, did you win the trade or did things just sort of ultimately work out for you?

If the Islanders or Red Wings offered you their 2019 1st and 2nd and their 2020 1st for Nylander, would you not take it?

I can't imagine Nylander signing any offer sheet either of those teams could make unless it was really silly money. Can't believe Lou would open the vault like that; nor would Holland (not to mention that would be 4 non-lottery-protected 1sts at that kind of money).

 

[Bates]

Just using round  number How much will we have available next year for Nylander,  Marner, and Matthews plus the rest of roster fill out.
Assuming Gardiner not coming back. 

Sizing up our Cap situation can we even sign Nylander, Matthews, and Marner? And fill out the roster for next year?

Of course we can: http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=5002.msg337220#msg337220

 

[herman]

Is math hard?

Just using round  number How much will we have available next year for Nylander,  Marner, and Matthews plus the rest of roster fill out.
Assuming Gardiner not coming back. 

Sizing up our Cap situation can we even sign Nylander, Matthews, and Marner? And fill out the roster for next year?

Of course we can: http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=5002.msg337220#msg337220

 

[Bates]

Ordinarily not for me but for some reason I can't get my head around Capfriendly or the Cap in general.

Is math hard?

Just using round  number How much will we have available next year for Nylander,  Marner, and Matthews plus the rest of roster fill out.
Assuming Gardiner not coming back. 

Sizing up our Cap situation can we even sign Nylander, Matthews, and Marner? And fill out the roster for next year?

Of course we can: http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=5002.msg337220#msg337220