Coronavirus

[Arn]

The U.K. government outdoing themselves again:


https://twitter.com/jimmfelton/status/1322640935172378624

https://twitter.com/deirdreheenan/status/1322595281897164800

https://twitter.com/david_conn/status/1322623505607909380

Why does every country think they can stop the virus by not taking a hard line stance? It ends up biting them in the ass every single time without fail. If the oven is hot and ten people have burnt their hands touching it then you probably don't have to try it out yourself.

Apologies. I meant to include in my post for context that Johnson has today...


Announced a month long nationwide lockdown for England.

A day after send out out his deputy to say there would never be a nationwide lockdown and a few weeks after he argues with the leader of the opposition that a nationwide lockdown should never happen again when the LotO said the science he was being presented with suggested a short nationwide lockdown was needed.

And a couple of months after he told people to go back to work. And to get out to the shops. And financially incentivised people to go to restaurants.

 

[Bender]

The U.K. government outdoing themselves again:


https://twitter.com/jimmfelton/status/1322640935172378624

https://twitter.com/deirdreheenan/status/1322595281897164800

https://twitter.com/david_conn/status/1322623505607909380

Why does every country think they can stop the virus by not taking a hard line stance? It ends up biting them in the ass every single time without fail. If the oven is hot and ten people have burnt their hands touching it then you probably don't have to try it out yourself.

Apologies. I meant to include in my post for context that Johnson has today...


Announced a month long nationwide lockdown for England.

A day after send out out his deputy to say there would never be a nationwide lockdown and a few weeks after he argues with the leader of the opposition that a nationwide lockdown should never happen again when the LotO said the science he was being presented with suggested a short nationwide lockdown was needed.

And a couple of months after he told people to go back to work. And to get out to the shops. And financially incentivised people to go to restaurants.

What a buffoon.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

1328 cases in Ontario today. Yikes.

From personal observation, it looks like quarantine fatigue seems to be setting in the gen pop.

 

[Bender]

1328 cases in Ontario today. Yikes.

From personal observation, it looks like quarantine fatigue seems to be setting in the gen pop.

Yes, but this comes from the top. Ford is loosening restrictions and seems to care more about short term business interests. I think bar/resto businesses need financial help to get through this but loosening restrictions now going into winter is short term thinking in its most extreme.

 

[Arn]

Positive sounding news on the first of the vaccines...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/covid-19-vaccine-candidate-effective-pfizer-biontech

A vaccine against Covid-19 is in sight, with the announcement of the first interim results in large-scale trials showing the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate is 90% effective, according to the manufacturers.

Their analysis shows a much better performance than most experts had hoped for and brings into view a potential end to a pandemic that has killed more than a million people, battered economies and upended daily life worldwide.

The company says there have been no serious side-effects while the high percentage of those protected makes the findings especially compelling. Regulators have said they would approve a vaccine that has a far lower 50% effectiveness rate ? protecting half those who get it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105

The first effective coronavirus vaccine can prevent more than 90% of people from getting Covid-19, a preliminary analysis shows.

The developers - Pfizer and BioNTech - described it as a "great day for science and humanity".

Their vaccine has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries and no safety concerns have been raised.

The companies plan to apply for emergency approval to use the vaccine by the end of the month.

 

[Kin]

It's obviously encouraging but, and I realize this isn't really how things work any more, I hope people can be somewhat guarded about this enthusiasm until they're dead-set certain of the results and all of the data is analyzed. Given all of the garbage surrounding vaccines in general,  you don't want to walk anything back.

 

[Joe S.]

One thing they?re saying about this potential vaccine (detailed data has not been released yet) is how long the immunity lasts. There?s some speculation that it may not last a full year and will require boosters throughout the year or annually.

Too early still but interesting nonetheless.

 

[Arn]

It's obviously encouraging but, and I realize this isn't really how things work any more, I hope people can be somewhat guarded about this enthusiasm until they're dead-set certain of the results and all of the data is analyzed. Given all of the garbage surrounding vaccines in general,  you don't want to walk anything back.

Indeed - there's obviously caveats, and many of them are referenced in the articles I think.

I just think it's incredible that we're even seeing the possibility of being in this position within ~9 months of not even knowing of the existence of this virus. It shows what we as a society can achieve when we put our minds (and money....) to it

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1325805715844259847

A good thread here explaining why this is good news while also explaining some of the caveats.

 

[bustaheims]

One thing they?re saying about this potential vaccine (detailed data has not been released yet) is how long the immunity lasts. There?s some speculation that it may not last a full year and will require boosters throughout the year or annually.

Too early still but interesting nonetheless.

So, the thing with this vaccine is that it's doesn't actually provide immunity. Instead, it decreases the severity of the illness - which is still very significant, and would go a long way towards things trending back to normal. It still wouldn't necessarily be a big help to high risk individuals (that would depend on how people with certain pre-existing conditions, etc., respond to the vaccine), and it absolutely will not prevent COVID from spreading.

It will help reduce the amount of people that require medical intervention and hospital space, which is good, and should lead to a significant drop in the mortality rate, but it won't eliminate the risk.

 

[Arn]

One thing they?re saying about this potential vaccine (detailed data has not been released yet) is how long the immunity lasts. There?s some speculation that it may not last a full year and will require boosters throughout the year or annually.

Too early still but interesting nonetheless.

So, the thing with this vaccine is that it's doesn't actually provide immunity. Instead, it decreases the severity of the illness - which is still very significant, and would go a long way towards things trending back to normal. It still wouldn't necessarily be a big help to high risk individuals (that would depend on how people with certain pre-existing conditions, etc., respond to the vaccine), and it absolutely will not prevent COVID from spreading.

It will help reduce the amount of people that require medical intervention and hospital space, which is good, and should lead to a significant drop in the mortality rate, but it won't eliminate the risk.

Decreasing the severity, allowing a shift back to "normality" would potentially help in letting the virus kind of spread around the population and the old "herd immunity"* though, which could help by turning it more into something like the flu and cold viruses we have that circulate and reduce the impact more eventually?




*I hate this phrase cos it feels very Joseph Mengele or something

 

[bustaheims]

Decreasing the severity, allowing a shift back to "normality" would potentially help in letting the virus kind of spread around the population and the old "herd immunity"* though, which could help by turning it more into something like the flu and cold viruses we have that circulate and reduce the impact more eventually?

If it is effective enough in reducing the severity, especially among those with pre-existing conditions, then, yeah. If it only reduces the impact in those who are already low or moderate risk . . . that will allow things to be more normal, but definitely not all the way.

As for herd immunity . . . whether that's even possible is still up in the air. There's been conflicting studies about whether (and what percentage of) those who recover retain immunity permanently or just for a short-term.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

but it won't eliminate the risk.

No, it won't eliminate the risk, but it certainly lowers it. That's what most safety devices do right? Seatbelts, air bags, condoms....

 

[bustaheims]

No, it won't eliminate the risk, but it certainly lowers it. That's what most safety devices do right? Seatbelts, air bags, condoms....

Yeah. Like I said, it's still significant and helpful. It's just not the end of the road, so to speak. It's a big step in the right direction, though.

 

[Bender]

It's obviously encouraging but, and I realize this isn't really how things work any more, I hope people can be somewhat guarded about this enthusiasm until they're dead-set certain of the results and all of the data is analyzed. Given all of the garbage surrounding vaccines in general,  you don't want to walk anything back.

I don't see a purpose in this announcement. Are they sure or are they not? If not, why give the news? Pump the stock price? Give people a sense of optimism? Other type of signalling?

 

[Bender]

Decreasing the severity, allowing a shift back to "normality" would potentially help in letting the virus kind of spread around the population and the old "herd immunity"* though, which could help by turning it more into something like the flu and cold viruses we have that circulate and reduce the impact more eventually?

If it is effective enough in reducing the severity, especially among those with pre-existing conditions, then, yeah. If it only reduces the impact in those who are already low or moderate risk . . . that will allow things to be more normal, but definitely not all the way.

As for herd immunity . . . whether that's even possible is still up in the air. There's been conflicting studies about whether (and what percentage of) those who recover retain immunity permanently or just for a short-term.

Right. I don't get the way people have latched on to herd immunity like it's a sure bet. This isn't chicken pox where you basically can't get it again. For all the seasonal coronaviruses immunity wanes so even just a small glance at that makes one skeptical.

Basically what the virologists are saying is we don't know enough yet. We need more data on what reinfection actually looks like in patients - there've only been a few documented cases of that thus far so the jury is still out.

Also one would hope the virus attenuates itself to humans to become less lethal, but, again, that's not a guarantee. Too many unknowns.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't see a purpose in this announcement. Are they sure or are they not? If not, why give the news? Pump the stock price? Give people a sense of optimism? Other type of signalling?

I'm sure they aren't shedding any tears about what this did to their stock price, but I think they've been consistent in providing updates about their efforts here.

 

[herman]

This is a pretty clever vaccine design with a very scalable model for future viruses, akin to sending design files to a 3D printer (your body is the printer in this analogy).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/celliottability/status/1326182355585933312

3rd time in the last week we got a new high for daily reported cases.

 

[groundskeeper willie]

https://twitter.com/celliottability/status/1326182355585933312

3rd time in the last week we got a new high for daily reported cases.

Vancouver's being fully lock down for two weeks, Montreal has been locked down separate from Quebec before. What possible reasoning is there to not lock down the GTA at this point?