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Coronavirus

Peter D. said:
Bullfrog said:
Well that's just flat out wrong. Halting things for 4 weeks will absolutely make a difference, even with lower noncompliance. Halting for 6 weeks, is significantly better.
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This is my struggle -- okay, cases drop.  Setting aside and forgetting about the impact that more jobs will be lost and businesses will be shut down permanently because of this round of lockdown.  Cases are below 1,000 as the models suggest.  Then what?  Open things up again...send our kids back to school...expand our bubbles... 

Will that not just cause the numbers to creep up again?  Then on to Round 3 of lockdowns?
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That's certainly possible; but without the lockdown we're going to run out of ICU beds and ICU trained professionals. While it might cycle up and down, we can not let the rates increase beyond what they are. We can't eliminate this threat without the vaccines, but we can try to keep it manageable.

People are dying horrible, lonely deaths. While jobs may be lost and businesses closed, we can prevent people from dying.
 
Bullfrog said:
That's certainly possible; but without the lockdown we're going to run out of ICU beds and ICU trained professionals. While it might cycle up and down, we can not let the rates increase beyond what they are. We can't eliminate this threat without the vaccines, but we can try to keep it manageable.

People are dying horrible, lonely deaths. While jobs may be lost and businesses closed, we can prevent people from dying.
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And, allowing the hospitals to become overwhelmed will just lead to an increase in spread, which will in turn lead to an increase in long haulers and deaths. If we're trying to protect the economy, having a significant portion of the workforce end up with potential long-term complications or dying is going to have a more significant, lasting impact on it than a short-term lockdown.
 
Bullfrog said:
Peter D. said:
At this point, keep things open with restrictions in place.  If the intention is for COVIDZero, it's never going to happen.  So halting things for four weeks isn't going to change much.
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Well that's just flat out wrong. Halting things for 4 weeks will absolutely make a difference, even with lower noncompliance. Halting for 6 weeks, is significantly better.
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We'll see. If they kept school's closed would we be in this position?
 
Opening the schools may have been part of the problem but I tend to think parties of 30 in motel rooms, 200 plus at an AirBNB, bars illegally running after hours clubs and generally people refusing to abide by the rules set down to protect us all is a much bigger problem.
 
Guilt Trip said:
Bullfrog said:
Peter D. said:
At this point, keep things open with restrictions in place.  If the intention is for COVIDZero, it's never going to happen.  So halting things for four weeks isn't going to change much.
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Well that's just flat out wrong. Halting things for 4 weeks will absolutely make a difference, even with lower noncompliance. Halting for 6 weeks, is significantly better.
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We'll see. If they kept school's closed would we be in this position?
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Yes. I don't think schools have had a particularly large impact on the number of cases. Just looking at the data on Ontario's website and they seem to account for a fairly small percentage.

Up where I live, schools are about the safest place to be right now.
 
How do you say we have a dire health emergency with lives at stake and we need to take drastic measures, but only after the holiday shopping/dinner gathering season?

https://twitter.com/FourWinns298/status/1341363479937232897
Thread
 
Peter D. said:
bustaheims said:
Bender said:
Peter D. said:
Nik said:
Well, we all knew it was coming:

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/12/20/all-regions-in-ontario-to-enter-lockdown-starting-christmas-eve-source/

We knew we would need it weeks ago but it was delayed so people could do their holiday shopping. I hope it ends up being worth it.
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Lockdowns are ridiculous at this point.
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I think that's open for discussion.
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The problem is, with the way this one is being announced, a significant portion of the population is going to ignore it - at least, for the holidays. There's always going to be a portion of the population that flat out refuses to comply or are unable to comply, but, announcing a lock down 3 days before Christmas? Most people who had travel plans aren't going to change them this late in the game. This lockdown either needed to announced weeks ago, or it needed to implemented in a way that acknowledges the reality of the timing - limited restrictions now (no indoor dining, limits on how many people in stores, etc. - enough to try to keep things from getting worse) with a much more strict lockdown than we've seen so far starting January 2nd.
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Yes, it will be ignored.  But this far in the game, I think they were going to be ignored regardless of when they were announced.

And I don't think the lockdowns were a matter of allowing people to get their Christmas shopping in.  I think had a lot more to do with keeping kids in school.  No way they would have halted the school year without a break like this, because the kids wouldn't go back any time soon.  No chance a 4-week lockdown announced on Nov. 1 would see the kids back in class on Dec. 1.  The Christmas break is perfectly convenient (I'm surprised, yet thankful and appreciate they made it to this point), and now they can tack it on.  I'm fully prepared for the kids to not go back to school until after March Break.

At this point, keep things open with restrictions in place.  If the intention is for COVIDZero, it's never going to happen.  So halting things for four weeks isn't going to change much.
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Jacinda Ardern said it best. You either aim for a high mark and miss the mark, or aim for a lower mark and miss far worse. Obviously businesses need to be floated more than they are, but as has been said since the beginning, and as we see it bear out now, the placed that dealt with COVID strongly and decisively are better able to stamp it out before they become reoccurring problems, so in that sense, yes I do think lockdowns that are half hearted like this one sort of is is kind of ridiculous, but we've been a crap load more fickle than Australia who just laid down the hammer on a city larger than Toronto twice.
 
It's the half measures that bother me.

Shut down Mom and Pop's clothing emporium but go to Walmart and buy all your electronic needs because they also sell bread and strawberries.
There is a candy store in a town near me.  They started selling some jams and food preserves....yep they qualify to stay open because they are now selling essential products.

Your strawberry and peanut sandwich can be shoved right up your behind.
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L K said:
It's the half measures that bother me.

Shut down Mom and Pop's clothing emporium but go to Walmart and buy all your electronic needs because they also sell bread and strawberries.
There is a candy store in a town near me.  They started selling some jams and food preserves....yep they qualify to stay open because they are now selling essential products.

Your strawberry and peanut sandwich can be shoved right up your behind.
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It honestly is ridiculous.
 
Bender said:
herman said:
https://twitter.com/dickzoutman/status/1343219890023505920
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Like Mike Ryan says, go fast and go hard.
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Did we need a paper to realize this?  Isn?t it pretty obvious that you can spend pretty much any amount ? trillions in the US, say ? on containment and elimination and you are way better off.

Alternatively, like trump, you can have the federal government do nothing while also promoting bad behavior.
 
So, I guess we've got to be pretty close to the time when some people start lying and claiming they got the vaccine, as their excuse to not wear a mask.
 
My mother in law lives in N.E. England and is 82.  She got a call yesterday from the National health telling her to report to a clinic near her home for her Vaccine shot....on New Years Day.  That is a pretty fast roll out.
 
I'm tired.  The number of phone calls I am fielding about people not wanting to get the vaccine.  The number of nurses who say they don't want to get the vaccine.  I don't understand....I really just don't.
 
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