General Leafs Talk v2.0

[Bender]

Some stats for comparison purposes for everyone courtesy of James Mirtle:

@mirtle
The mindboggling thing for Toronto is its 5-on-5 goals against and save percentage are actually better during their 17-game slide!

This team makes no sense.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I know he says that they are better but they're practically even. It's not the goaltending that's been a problem obviously so it shouldn't be that surprising. It's specialty teams and even-strength goal scoring that's causing this "slump". And that's made pretty clear on the chart.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I know he says that they are better but they're practically even. It's not the goaltending that's been a problem obviously so it shouldn't be that surprising. It's specialty teams and even-strength goal scoring that's causing this "slump". And that's made pretty clear on the chart.

I think it was just a comment on how, considering how poorly they've played, those stats are actually technically better in that stretch.

But yeah, the ES goal scoring, you simply have to get more shots than the Leafs have been getting.  It's okay when their SH% is riding high, but when it comes back down to earth it's ugly.  Look how much their SH% fell from the first month but they only averaged 1 shot more per game at ES.

 

[ZBBM]

What's significant about the last 17 games?  It's just an arbitrary point at which to make a comparison with "the first month."

 

[bustaheims]

What's significant about the last 17 games?  It's just an arbitrary point at which to make a comparison with "the first month."

The last 17 games represents everything from the beginning of November - so, starting with the thorough dismantling in Vancouver onwards. It's not really arbitrary. It's a pretty clear point as to when the Leafs' style of play stopped being successful.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

What's significant about the last 17 games?  It's just an arbitrary point at which to make a comparison with "the first month."

The Leafs played 14 games in October and 17 games in November/December.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The last 17 games represents everything from the beginning of November - so, starting with the thorough dismantling in Vancouver onwards. It's not really arbitrary. It's a pretty clear point as to when the Leafs' style of play stopped being successful.

It's kind of crazy how things just dropped off at that exact moment.

The last 5 games of October they were averaging 3.6 goals a game. And in the last 3 they scored 4 goals in each of them.

The first 5 games of November they averaged 0.8 and didn't have more than a single goal in any of them.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The last 17 games represents everything from the beginning of November - so, starting with the thorough dismantling in Vancouver onwards. It's not really arbitrary. It's a pretty clear point as to when the Leafs' style of play stopped being successful.

It's kind of crazy how things just dropped off at that exact moment.

The last 5 games of October they were averaging 3.6 goals a game. And in the last 3 they scored 4 goals in each of them.

The first 5 games of November they averaged 0.8 and didn't have more than a single goal in any of them.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Yup. I know what I want for Christmas this year.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Worth noting the season Wilson was fired the team had the same number of points after 31 games played.  Last season they had 1 less, but only 17 games left to go.  51 games remaining, as Wilson found out, leaves a lot of time for things to change/regress, etc.

Now, their goaltending is far, far superior now, so maybe those 51 games gives the team an opportunity to turn it around where they were unable to in 2011-12.

 

[bustaheims]

It's kind of crazy how things just dropped off at that exact moment.

The last 5 games of October they were averaging 3.6 goals a game. And in the last 3 they scored 4 goals in each of them.

The first 5 games of November they averaged 0.8 and didn't have more than a single goal in any of them.

It's pretty absurd. In those 14 October games, they scored less than 3 goals in only 4 games. In the 17 games since, they're scored 3 or more goals in 5.

 

[pnjunction]

Didn't someone say the Leafs were built for October or something like that?

 

[ZBBM]

What's significant about the last 17 games?  It's just an arbitrary point at which to make a comparison with "the first month."

The last 17 games represents everything from the beginning of November - so, starting with the thorough dismantling in Vancouver onwards. It's not really arbitrary. It's a pretty clear point as to when the Leafs' style of play stopped being successful.

But the whole narrative in October was that the Leafs were being successful in spite of their style of play.

 

[L K]

What's significant about the last 17 games?  It's just an arbitrary point at which to make a comparison with "the first month."

The last 17 games represents everything from the beginning of November - so, starting with the thorough dismantling in Vancouver onwards. It's not really arbitrary. It's a pretty clear point as to when the Leafs' style of play stopped being successful.

But the whole narrative in October was that the Leafs were being successful in spite of their style of play.

And the Vancouver game marks the start of their play coming back to bite them.

 

[bustaheims]

But the whole narrative in October was that the Leafs were being successful in spite of their style of play.

Yes, and the split shows when it caught up to them. It's a pretty stark difference. There wasn't really a gradual decline. They just stopped being able to score or kill penalties.

 

[ZBBM]

But the whole narrative in October was that the Leafs were being successful in spite of their style of play.

Yes, and the split shows when it caught up to them. It's a pretty stark difference. There wasn't really a gradual decline. They just stopped being able to score or kill penalties.

What I'm getting at is that it's arbitrary in that you could pick any one game in the season, run before and after stats, and you would get a different comparison.  For example, if I wanted to compare the first 2 weeks of the season with everything after that, you would see a different picture -- one that is no more or less valid, or significant.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

But the whole narrative in October was that the Leafs were being successful in spite of their style of play.

Yes, and the split shows when it caught up to them. It's a pretty stark difference. There wasn't really a gradual decline. They just stopped being able to score or kill penalties.

What I'm getting at is that it's arbitrary in that you could pick any one game in the season, run before and after stats, and you would get a different comparison.  For example, if I wanted to compare the first 2 weeks of the season with everything after that, you would see a different picture -- one that is no more or less valid, or significant.

You could say that about any comparison - it's "arbitrary."

It's a comparison to illustrate the difference in their statistics in October from what they've been since.  Do you have some issue with their invalidity or is this just a discussion of two periods of time being arbitrary?  Any point will be arbitrary, so there's got to be a starting point somewhere.

 

[bustaheims]

What I'm getting at is that it's arbitrary in that you could pick any one game in the season, run before and after stats, and you would get a different comparison.  For example, if I wanted to compare the first 2 weeks of the season with everything after that, you would see a different picture -- one that is no more or less valid, or significant.

But, it's really not arbitrary. There's a clear difference between the two periods in terms of success, whereas, with other splits, that difference is a lot more murky.

 

[ZBBM]

What I'm getting at is that it's arbitrary in that you could pick any one game in the season, run before and after stats, and you would get a different comparison.  For example, if I wanted to compare the first 2 weeks of the season with everything after that, you would see a different picture -- one that is no more or less valid, or significant.

But, it's really not arbitrary. There's a clear difference between the two periods in terms of success, whereas, with other splits, that difference is a lot more murky.

I'm sure we're talking past each other.  I'm making a general point about the significance of pointing out differences like this when the only thing that, by definition, counts is where the team finishes at the end of the season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Lines at practice:

JVR-Kadri-Kessel
Raymond-Smith-Clarkson
Lupul-Holland-Kulemin
McLaren/Ashton-McClement-D'Amigo

Gunnarsson-Franson
Gardiner-Liles
Fraser-Ranger

One of the few times where the forward lines are exactly what I would want, assuming it's McLaren that sits. I wasn't crazy about Kadri playing on the top line before since it felt like we were putting all our eggs in one basket, but with Lupul out that should give us another scoring line. That trio in particularly should be interesting to watch.

As for the defence, well, there's Fraser.