How to know when to stop tanking?

[Frank E]

They keep those 2, and add Nylander and Marner to the roster doing a 40 point pace a piece, and I think they're more bottom 15 than bottom 5.

I don't think it'll be anywhere near that kind of improvement. Nylander and Marner at a 40 point pace means one is basically a straight swap for Parenteau, and the other is a step up from Matthias that compensates for what will likely be a drop off from Komarov. The difference there is more like from being bottom 2 to being bottom 4.

I figured Michalek was the PAP replacement...like I said, I don't feel that strongly about it anyways.

 

[Kin]

I figured Michalek was the PAP replacement...

Michalek might be a similar player but I think Busta's referring to where these guys are in the lineup and their resulting production. If the team has Kadri/JVR/Marner/Nylander with the club then you're running out of top 6 spots. Assuming they'll try and use Komarov in a similar role then you have one spot and it seems pretty likely it'll go to someone like Hyman or Sosh. Michalek is a pretty big longshot to be featured that way and, as a result, is unlikely to match PAP's production.

So for their to be a noticeable increase in production from the top 6 based on the kids being in the lineup Marner and/or Nylander would have to score  significantly more than PAP in that role.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd be surprised if Kadri or JVR were dealt this summer, especially Kadri. But Lou recently said something about only 50% of the current roster probably being back next season, so even if that percentage is a touch off I'm sorta expecting a summer with lots of movement and a lot of potential for surprises.

It's for that reason projecting next seasons roster and their performance is basically impossible (but still fun). I've said before I expect the team to be around .500, which would result in about a 20th place finish. But that's with a fairly conservative look at the roster (Kadri/JVR/Gardiner kept, a couple dead weight contracts dumped to make room for kids). But again who knows what we look like come October.

 

[Kin]

I'd be surprised if Kadri or JVR were dealt this summer, especially Kadri. But Lou recently said something about only 50% of the current roster probably being back next season, so even if that percentage is a touch off I'm sorta expecting a summer with lots of movement and a lot of potential for surprises. 

I just think the potential return on JVR is going to be too much to ignore. I think that's a situation where they could get full value for a very good player and while the team has done some good things in the rebuild they haven't been able to do that. 

 

[herman]

I'd be surprised if Kadri or JVR were dealt this summer, especially Kadri. But Lou recently said something about only 50% of the current roster probably being back next season, so even if that percentage is a touch off I'm sorta expecting a summer with lots of movement and a lot of potential for surprises. 

I just think the potential return on JVR is going to be too much to ignore. I think that's a situation where they could get full value for a very good player and while the team has done some good things in the rebuild they haven't been able to do that.

I agree with this.

In that same interview, Lou said

?You?ll see young players in the lineup, how many I couldn?t answer? And I?m sure you?ll see acquisitions that hopefully we?re able to make. We know what our template is, I think we know what our needs are, and getting them filled is another thing. Once you identify them then it?s what can you do, and you can?t get ahead of yourself just for the sake of doing it?.I do believe we?re a little bit ahead of where I thought we might be because of what the potential is ? and I?m very careful of that word with some of our younger players ? and how they?ve developed and the success they?ve had with the Marlies coming together, working together, knowing what it is to win.?

To me, that reads as the teardown is still in progress, and the biggest chips left (JvR, Bozak, Komarov, Lupul, and to a lesser extent Kadri, Gardiner -- because of their keepability) will be moved (just not for chump change). JvR is a prime opportunity to solidify the backend.

 

[Bullfrog]

Ya, I imagine they push hard to trade JvR and Bozak.

 

[freer]

IMO
Trading JVR would be a huge mistake.....

 

[herman]

Honestly I would trade Kadri and Gardiner before JVR. Just my preference both in terms of return and who is better for them to keep around that may benefit the other prospects.

I am of the opposite feeling. My list of those 3 in order of tradability preference.

1) JvR is in his prime on a ridiculously good contract, but he doesn't quite match our window of opportunity.

2) Kadri is on the upswing still, trying to convert his skill and possession game into consistent production; as an RFA, we can control costs a bit. He's already a quite good 1C; but he looks like he'll be an elite 2C over the next 4 years.

3) Gardiner is a strength for the Leafs in their position of weakness. His game is one that appears to still be developing, but has a longevity to it. He has gamebreaking speed and puck handling, with a burgeoning shot. Unless his skating begins to falter, Gardiner will be good for a long, long time. Of the three, if we could keep 1, I'd keep Gardiner.

 

[bustaheims]

I am of the opposite feeling. My list of those 3 in order of tradability preference.

1) JvR is in his prime on a ridiculously good contract, but he doesn't quite match our window of opportunity.

2) Kadri is on the upswing still, trying to convert his skill and possession game into consistent production; as an RFA, we can control costs a bit. He's already a quite good 1C; but he looks like he'll be an elite 2C over the next 4 years.

3) Gardiner is a strength for the Leafs in their position of weakness. His game is one that appears to still be developing, but has a longevity to it. He has gamebreaking speed and puck handling, with a burgeoning shot. Unless his skating begins to falter, Gardiner will be good for a long, long time. Of the three, if we could keep 1, I'd keep Gardiner.

I agree, JvR has the most trade value, and he won't be signed so such a sweetheart deal when the Leafs will actually need cap space. The time to cash in on that is now. I don't agree about Kadri being a good 1C, but he is a good to very good 2C, and there's good value there. It's really going to depend on what kind of contract he's looking for. As for Gardiner, I'd consider him unavailable for anything less than a significant over-payment. Of the 3, he's the one the Leafs will regret trading the most.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

3) Gardiner is a strength for the Leafs in their position of weakness. His game is one that appears to still be developing, but has a longevity to it. He has gamebreaking speed and puck handling, with a burgeoning shot. Unless his skating begins to falter, Gardiner will be good for a long, long time. Of the three, if we could keep 1, I'd keep Gardiner.

Leafs should have an Anton Stralman Rule when it comes to young/young-ish D who can skate and make plays.

 

[herman]

Leafs should have an Anton Stralman Rule when it comes to young/young-ish D who can skate and make plays.

Seriously. I'm so glad we're the team that is now taking advantage of other teams that gave up early on their puck-moving defensemen.

 

[Kin]

I think that it is important to keep some players around like JVR during the rebuild - skill, size, and seems to buy in very much to the concepts Babcock is trying to introduce.
My feeling is that Kadri is never going to be a number one and wants to be paid like one. While Gardiner has all too often displayed the hockey sense of a fungus gnat (granted his play under Babcock has improved which is why I'm in favour of striking while the iron is hot).
Realistically they are all of similar age and may not fit into the window of the rebuild and could be dealt for the right price. I don't think any of the 3 are untouchable.

The fact that JVR is the most valuable right now is exactly why he should be dealt. A rebuild can't just be about trading away players who aren't very good and will bring back unimpressive returns. 

 

[Kin]

2) Kadri is on the upswing still, trying to convert his skill and possession game into consistent production; as an RFA, we can control costs a bit. He's already a quite good 1C; but he looks like he'll be an elite 2C over the next 4 years.

The way I see it there are two problems with keeping Kadri around. Three, maybe.

One, as busta mentions, is the contract. I don't know what Kadri is looking for but it's very hard for me to look at his production and try to peg a number/term that both makes sense for Kadri and the team. Are you comfortable with 5/30? More? A one year deal?

Two, and I grant this is subjective but do you really see Kadri playing  a top 6 role on the team that eventually is competitive again? Ideally,  in addition to the other young prospects at C the team has, they'll be able to add one of those no doubt about it #1's we hear so much about. If, just as an example, the Leafs go into July with Nylander/Marner/Matthews in the system, do you really want to invest 5-6 million in Kadri? Seems like that's a bit of a log jam.

And third, I just feel that landing that #1 is so important the team really has to take as many shots at getting them as possible.  In light of the other two issues I mentioned it's tough for me to see how Kadri isn't a good way to add another crack at that.

I like Kadri as a player quite a bit but it's really hard for me to see how he fits in going forward. 

 

[cabber24]

2) Kadri is on the upswing still, trying to convert his skill and possession game into consistent production; as an RFA, we can control costs a bit. He's already a quite good 1C; but he looks like he'll be an elite 2C over the next 4 years.

The way I see it there are two problems with keeping Kadri around. Three, maybe.

One, as busta mentions, is the contract. I don't know what Kadri is looking for but it's very hard for me to look at his production and try to peg a number/term that both makes sense for Kadri and the team. Are you comfortable with 5/30? More? A one year deal?

Two, and I grant this is subjective but do you really see Kadri playing  a top 6 role on the team that eventually is competitive again? Ideally,  in addition to the other young prospects at C the team has, they'll be able to add one of those no doubt about it #1's we hear so much about. If, just as an example, the Leafs go into July with Nylander/Marner/Matthews in the system, do you really want to invest 5-6 million in Kadri? Seems like that's a bit of a log jam.

And third, I just feel that landing that #1 is so important the team really has to take as many shots at getting them as possible.  In light of the other two issues I mentioned it's tough for me to see how Kadri isn't a good way to add another crack at that.

I like Kadri as a player quite a bit but it's really hard for me to see how he fits in going forward.

I am worried if we loose Kadri he will end up on a similar projection as Steen's career took. I would like the Leafs to see it through with Kadri and resign him.

If I had to bet, I would bet by the end of Kadri's next contract he will be considered a bargain. I would be comfortable with 5 years between 25-30M.

 

[bustaheims]

And third, I just feel that landing that #1 is so important the team really has to take as many shots at getting them as possible.  In light of the other two issues I mentioned it's tough for me to see how Kadri isn't a good way to add another crack at that.

I like Kadri as a player quite a bit but it's really hard for me to see how he fits in going forward.

I think two big wrinkles in the Kadri situation are A) where the Leafs end up in the draft after the lottery and B) whether they're able to move Bozak. If the Leafs get the opportunity to draft Matthews, Kadri's on the block for sure. They won't pay him what he's looking for to end up on the 3rd line - and, in this scenario, they maybe keep Bozak for that role (depending on what they do with Holland). If not, they might look to sign him to a short-term deal so they can ease Marner into being a full-time C - but, that also depends on what happens with Bozak. If they don't find a market for him, knowing that they're not expecting to be a contender before his contract runs out, they could very well just bite the bullet and run with him as a top 6 C until Marner is ready to take over the role full-time, and then, have him run out his contract on the 3rd line.

 

[cabber24]

And third, I just feel that landing that #1 is so important the team really has to take as many shots at getting them as possible.  In light of the other two issues I mentioned it's tough for me to see how Kadri isn't a good way to add another crack at that.

I like Kadri as a player quite a bit but it's really hard for me to see how he fits in going forward.

I think two big wrinkles in the Kadri situation are A) where the Leafs end up in the draft after the lottery and B) whether they're able to move Bozak. If the Leafs get the opportunity to draft Matthews, Kadri's on the block for sure. They won't pay him what he's looking for to end up on the 3rd line - and, in this scenario, they maybe keep Bozak for that role (depending on what they do with Holland). If not, they might look to sign him to a short-term deal so they can ease Marner into being a full-time C - but, that also depends on what happens with Bozak. If they don't find a market for him, knowing that they're not expecting to be a contender before his contract runs out, they could very well just bite the bullet and run with him as a top 6 C until Marner is ready to take over the role full-time, and then, have him run out his contract on the 3rd line.

Babcock just mentioned the other day about how he didn't like how Nylander has to play C right away because of the lack of depth and that he was jealous that Larkin gets to start on the W and learn under Zetterberg. I don't think the C log jam will happen any time soon.

 

[bustaheims]

Babcock just mentioned the other day about how he didn't like how Nylander has to play C right away because of the lack of depth and that he was jealous that Larkin gets to start on the W and learn under Zetterberg. I don't think the C log jam will happen any time soon.

Maybe, but, that's still like a season or two, while Kadri's likely looking for a 4+ year deal. The Leafs coudl easily bring in free agent stop gaps for a couple season so Marner and Nylander can be eased into playing C full-time instead - and, in fact, that route probably makes more sense than creating a situation where you have a $5M+ C on your 3rd line.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd probably be a little hesitant to make a major decision like this based on the assumption that Marner will play centre at the NHL level. I'm pretty sure he's still primarily played on the wing with the Knights this season.

 

[herman]

And third, I just feel that landing that #1 is so important the team really has to take as many shots at getting them as possible.  In light of the other two issues I mentioned it's tough for me to see how Kadri isn't a good way to add another crack at that.

I like Kadri as a player quite a bit but it's really hard for me to see how he fits in going forward.

I think two big wrinkles in the Kadri situation are A) where the Leafs end up in the draft after the lottery and B) whether they're able to move Bozak. If the Leafs get the opportunity to draft Matthews, Kadri's on the block for sure. They won't pay him what he's looking for to end up on the 3rd line - and, in this scenario, they maybe keep Bozak for that role (depending on what they do with Holland). If not, they might look to sign him to a short-term deal so they can ease Marner into being a full-time C - but, that also depends on what happens with Bozak. If they don't find a market for him, knowing that they're not expecting to be a contender before his contract runs out, they could very well just bite the bullet and run with him as a top 6 C until Marner is ready to take over the role full-time, and then, have him run out his contract on the 3rd line.

I agree with all of this (and the rest of what you mentioned, Nik). Just saying it wouldn't bother me to keep Kadri if there are no takers and the contract talks shake out on the cheaper side. To me, he's not outright on the block like Bozak, JvR, Komarov, Hunwick, Michalek, and Lupul/Robidas (haha) are. If I had my druthers, Kadri would be traded as soon as someone puts a potentially high 1st rd pick on the table (even if it's 2017 or 18), and Holland would be my cheap stop-gap centre sheltering the youth.

 

[Kin]

I'd probably be a little hesitant to make a major decision like this based on the assumption that Marner will play centre at the NHL level. I'm pretty sure he's still primarily played on the wing with the Knights this season.

I don't think that's the assumption exactly. I think the assumption is that of Marner/Nylander and an as yet unknown #1 type who, even if not Matthews, is at least on the sort of Kopitar/Toews/Backstrom level that you'll have at least two players who will be above Kadri on the depth chart when it's all said and done. Marner may not be one of them, no, but I think the Leafs should at least be looking at that as the ideal situation.