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How to know when to stop tanking?

Highlander said:
there is a difference between a tank and an ongoing rebuild.

Which is where we get back to that being incredibly shortsighted. If there was a point to tanking it was to land very high draft picks. The Maple Leafs have not picked in the top 3 and may not again this year. What you're arguing for is for "the Tank" to come to an end before the Leafs have had a single draft pick as a result of it.   
 
Highlander said:
No Nick I expect to draft in the Top 4 then we can get on with trying to win

I think Nik's point is that one Top 4 pick this year will not make enough of a difference to compete for championships on a regular basis. It certainly moves the needle up a few ticks, but we need the needle to go all the way into the red zone on the other end of the dial. That means collecting as many top 5, top 10 picks that we are able to and developing them to the point where it makes more sense to 'go for it' that year (trade futures for established talent), rather than to stay reserved and future focused (i.e. sell UFAs, trade currently good players for prospects/picks).

An ongoing rebuild (routinely buying players with prospects and picks) would just put us back in the middle, like we were after the Salary Cap was implemented. 8th, 9th, 10th... the worst place to be in the standings after the season is over.
 
Highlander said:
No Nick I expect to draft in the Top 4 then we can get on with trying to win

Yeah . . . no. You don't "get on with trying to win" until the group of young players and prospects show themselves to be capable of doing do. A good portion of the prospects we're excited about won't amount to much - that's just the nature of the beast. There's still a long way to go before the team can focus on building towards the next step. They certainly can't get there until they've clearly completed this step.

Right now, the Leafs have a bunch of eggs, and you're off counting chickens.
 
Looks like the Eggs are starting to squawk a bit. I agree with all of you and will let Shanny, Lou, Dubas and Hunter to the handiwork. I think I am going to shut the f up now
 
Highlander said:
Looks like the Eggs are starting to squawk a bit. I agree with all of you and will let Shanny, Lou, Dubas and Hunter to the handiwork. I think I am going to shut the f up now

No. Outside of 3 or 4 of them, they're all still very much just eggs.
 
herman said:
I think Nik's point is that one Top 4 pick this year will not make enough of a difference to compete for championships on a regular basis. It certainly moves the needle up a few ticks, but we need the needle to go all the way into the red zone on the other end of the dial.

Nik's point is more that we have no idea what a top 4 pick will yield and so the extent to which it might move the needle is an unknown. We have a pretty good idea about who's going #1 and that he'll be a pretty good NHLer. At #4? None of us know what those players being talked about there will be. We don't even know what the Finnish players will be. We shouldn't be building around them until we do.

It's not about faith or lack of it in Shanahan or Hunter or Lamoriello either. Dean Lombardi, who probably has as good a claim as anyone to being the best GM in the game right now, used a top 4 pick on Thomas Hickey. Top 4, top 5, top 8...those just aren't sure things. 
 
bustaheims said:
Highlander said:
There is no sure thing anywhere, Oh I forgot about Death and Taxes

Even taxes aren't a sure thing.

And, depending on your income, death might be on the run too: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/05/the-coming-death-shortage/304105/

Donald Trump, a 108-year-old multibillionaire in 2054, will be firing the children of the apprentices he fired in 2004. Meanwhile, the maids, chauffeurs, and gofers of the rich will stare mortality in the face.
 
Potvin29 said:
Not sure why it's gone on 6 pages when the answer is: "When it feels right."

You mean like this?

tumblr_lddmi9O9Or1qzs63fo1_1280.gif
 
Does it feel right yet?

I guess a winning core needs: 1C, 1W, 2C, 2W/3C, 1D, 2D... G? (I don't know that it really needs a G)

Are we there yet....?
 
mr grieves said:
Does it feel right yet?

I guess a winning core needs: 1C, 1W, 2C, 2W/3C, 1D, 2D... G? (I don't know that it really needs a G)

Are we there yet....?

We won't know until the prospects actually prove themselves capable of over a full NHL season. So, no, we're not there yet. We're still at least a full season away from being able to say this team is in position to start building towards the next step. Most of the players people are pencilling in as part of the team's future core have played less than 20 NHL games so far. They're still basically unknown quantities at the NHL level.
 

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