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Idiocracy

My mind is still blown that trump has nearly 50% of the votes. I do not even know how to express how confused I am by that.
 
bustaheims said:
Things right now point to Biden eking out a win - like, hitting the 270 mark exactly with Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine's 2 state votes and one of their congressional districts. Hopefully, he can also flip at least one of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Without that, we're looking at the tightest election in modern history (by the electoral college, at least - Biden has a significant lead in the popular vote).

Quite frankly, unless Biden sweeps all three potential swing states, it's going to be a narrow margin of EC victory - which, historically, have tended to favour Republicans - Democrats tend to win by significant margins, with the last Democratic president to win by less than 100 electoral college votes being Jimmy Carter. Meanwhile, the Republicans have won 3 elections since by that narrow a margin, and could potentially win a 4th tonight. Of course, between 1892 (when the electoral college expanded to 444 votes from 401 in the previous 2 elections, and 369 or less in all elections preceding that) and 1976, there had only been 2 other elections decided by that narrow a margin.

So, I am not well versed in American politics.  Isn't the electoral college the only thing that matters, or is there a case where the popular vote comes in to play?
 
Significantly Insignificant said:
So, I am not well versed in American politics.  Isn't the electoral college the only thing that matters, or is there a case where the popular vote comes in to play?

The EC is what determines the elections. The popular vote is noteworthy, as it usually at least aligns with the winner of the EC - though, 2 of the previous 7 elections defied that. Before those, it had been decades since it occured.
 
Biden has got this.  It's like a 4-1 lead late in game 7 of a series, very unlikely to lose.
 
Zee said:
Biden has got this.  It's like a 4-1 lead late in game 7 of a series, very unlikely to lose.

tenor.gif
 
The simple fact that this assclown has so far received over 4 million more votes then he did in 2016 makes you really scratch your head.
 
Just a reminder that Tony DeAngelo is proving in the last 24-ish hours that he's not just a casual Trump supporter but a full blown maga nut.
 
https://twitter.com/JustinRohrlich/status/1324069716873326593
I don't want my hard-earned tax dollars going to freeloaders.
 
Guilt Trip said:
The simple fact that this assclown has so far received over 4 million more votes then he did in 2016 makes you really scratch your head.

With the amount of votes cast in this election, his vote total was always going to grow. Fewer voters are opting for 3rd party/independent candidates this time around, as well (~4.7% of votes in 2016, ~1.6% this time around). I'm more concerned that his percentage share of the vote has increase a little more than 2% - though, that is also partly because of the decrease in 3rd party/independent votes, and Biden's share of the vote has increased at a similar rate compared to Clinton's in 2016.
 
In North Dakota a State Senate seat was won by a man who died of COVID-19 on October 5.  The (R) is strong with voters.
 
How many states are going to have to do recounts after this?  I doubt that Trump will eventually conceded the way Gore did in 2000.
 
Significantly Insignificant said:
How many states are going to have to do recounts after this?  I doubt that Trump will eventually conceded the way Gore did in 2000.

Some may but as was pointed out by the former Republican governor of Wisconsin, recounts usually end up switching counts by a couple hundred at most, not the thousands that make up the margins here.
 
Significantly Insignificant said:
How many states are going to have to do recounts after this?  I doubt that Trump will eventually conceded the way Gore did in 2000.

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada are all likely to end up in recounts, with North Carolina and Georgia potentially heading that way, as well, but, as Nik points out, it's unlikely they'll actually find enough of a discrepancy to change the votes.

That being said, if Biden wins both Nevada and Michigan, Trump has no path to victory. These are the two states to really watch right now, with Pennsylvania being the next most important.
 
I mean, a decisive victory in Nevada for Biden would make it impossible for Trump to win, now that at Michigan has been call for Biden. So, if that can come out tonight...
 
bustaheims said:
I mean, a decisive victory in Nevada for Biden would make it impossible for Trump to win, now that at Michigan has been call for Biden. So, if that can come out tonight...

Arizona needs to be confirmed too but that'll likely happen tonight. I sure would like to go to bed a little more soundly tonight than I did last night.
 
What results trackers were people using?

I was flipping between Politico, NYT, AP, and 538, and they all painted a pretty calm narrow victory for Biden throughout the evening. But my timeline looked like it was melting down last night. Were people just expecting everything to cruise into blue?
 
herman said:
What results trackers were people using?

I was flipping between Politico, NYT, AP, and 538, and they all painted a pretty calm narrow victory for Biden throughout the evening. But my timeline looked like it was melting down last night. Were people just expecting everything to cruise into blue?

Polls had Trump ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin last night, which obviously would have been a massive problem for Biden. People, including myself, were unsure if the rest of the (mostly mailed in) votes would be enough to tilt those back in Biden's favour. And I mean considering everything I think it was probably fair to be a little unsure/worried until it happened.
 
herman said:
What results trackers were people using?

I was flipping between Politico, NYT, AP, and 538, and they all painted a pretty calm narrow victory for Biden throughout the evening. But my timeline looked like it was melting down last night. Were people just expecting everything to cruise into blue?

Yeah.  The polls leading up to the election were sitting better for Biden than Clinton where she was having an erosion of her lead heading into election day.  I think the fear of having Trump win Florida big and then have some of the "nice to turn blue" states fall apart had a lot of people worried.  There is still the bullshit that DeJoy pulled with the USPS where there are >20% of mailed ballots that didn't make it out of some sorting stations and it was unclear for a lot of states whether the unreported numbers were from day of the election or advancing polling. 

A lot of PTSD from 2016 where I think everyone expected a landslide for Clinton and then sat in shock that this moron actually won and did so handily.  Seeing that happening again was what got everyone panicked.  And I mean this is going to be two years of disaster with the Turtle still in charge of the senate.
 

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