Jays Roster Discussion
- Thread starter Deebo
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Kin
New member
sickbeast said:
So I did some thinking about this, to try and come up with a player who was similar in value to Donaldson who got dealt so as to gauge what he might fetch in a trade. I don't know that I came up with anything perfect but three deals came to mind that maybe give us a framework.
The first one was Chris Sale, probably because it's the most recent. Sale was a legit, #1 ace kind of guy traded in his prime and the White Sox got a pretty hefty return. They got one of the consensus top 10 prospects in baseball(Moncada), another top 100 guy(Michael Kopech) and then two lesser prospects.
That's not a great comp though. Sale is younger, has more team control and isn't actually as valuable on the field as Donaldson's been(19.5 bwar in his three best pre-trade years to Donaldson's 24.0). I also think teams tend to overpay for pitching.
So then I thought about Miguel Cabrera. That's a little more complicated though for a few reasons. Cabrera was significantly younger(25 to 31), Cabrera's value was artificially lower because he was playing out of position and the deal wasn't just for Cabrera but also had some salary throw-ins. Anyways, the structure's not all that different. Cabrera went for a consensus top 10 prospect(Cameron Maybin), a consensus top 20 prospect(Andrew Miller) and then a couple other guys who could generously be called B or B- prospects. But again, that was a weirder, bigger trade.
So then I thought, maybe the best comp for Donaldson is Donaldson? True, Donaldson didn't have an MVP and the eye-popping stats when Oakland traded him but his value in his two best Oakland years(15 bwar) wasn't much lower than his two best Jays years(16.3 bWAR).
Anyways, when the Jays traded for Donaldson then they maybe got something closer to your idea of four high value guys although they didn't get the top end talent Chicago or the Marlins did in their deals. The Jays traded a top 100 guy in Barreto, a fringe-y top 100 guy in Nolin, a good prospect in Graveman and then whatever we want to call Brett Lawrie(a good ball player but someone who'd stalled a little and struggled with injuries).
So there's no great comps. My guess though, and this is just a guess, is that if you trade Donaldson you'll probably get something similar to what Sale and Cabrera got but with maybe less high end value. So maybe a top 20 prospect, another top 100ish guy and then a B- sort of guy.
L K
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
I think you have to look at it. I don't think there is a reasonable package that gets Donaldson signed before the offseason next year. You trade Donaldson and quite frankly could hope that he ends up going to free agency and considers returning as a free agent if you want him back that badly.
Well, Donaldson is definitely going to be the player to watch during the off season. Everything else for the Jays is going to be kind of "meh". They need a starting pitcher, an outfielder, and maybe a utility player. I don't expect them to make a flashy move, particularly if they're not signing Donaldson to an extension. I really think the Jays need to take the opportunity to trade Donaldson for multiple prospects and do a mini rebuild. Who knows, they might still be able to compete for a wild card slot next season that way, and then in 2019 they will hopefully be stacked with young controllable talent. For the Jays to actually go for it next season they would have to commit close to $100M/year on multiple high end free agents. I really don't think they would ever go that route. I would be shocked. The risk management runs with any type of rebuild is that Rogers Centre will be a ghost town. We will see what happens.
Wow, it's a real shocker, but Donaldson actually *wants* to remain a Blue Jay:
http://slam.canoe.com/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2017/10/01/22756040.html
This is the first time I have ever heard him actually say that. It's probably posturing to try to get himself a better contract. If he really likes it here so much he would have said something about it long ago.
We'll see what happens. There are pros and cons to either option (signing him or trading him). Trading him is risky in that you will probably never get a prospect in return that would develop into any type of comparable player. However it saves a lot of money and it gives the Jays more options seeing as they have guys like Guerrero coming up in their system. I would be shocked to see management commit long term to a player at this point. The Jays' window will close after 2018. I think they are going to keep Donaldson until at least the midpoint of the season to see where they are at in the standings. If they are below .500 I think they will move him.
http://slam.canoe.com/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2017/10/01/22756040.html
This is the first time I have ever heard him actually say that. It's probably posturing to try to get himself a better contract. If he really likes it here so much he would have said something about it long ago.
We'll see what happens. There are pros and cons to either option (signing him or trading him). Trading him is risky in that you will probably never get a prospect in return that would develop into any type of comparable player. However it saves a lot of money and it gives the Jays more options seeing as they have guys like Guerrero coming up in their system. I would be shocked to see management commit long term to a player at this point. The Jays' window will close after 2018. I think they are going to keep Donaldson until at least the midpoint of the season to see where they are at in the standings. If they are below .500 I think they will move him.
Kin
New member
So I did a little digging into Bautista's splits to see if there's any evidence at all that he could still be a productive hitter in a reduced role. I came away with a few things:
1) He was significantly better in the first half(.749 OPS) vs the second half(.577). That does at least hint at an older player who wore down over the course of the season.
2) He hit significantly better at night (.734) than he did in day games(.563)
3) It's a very small sample size but he hit well as a DH(.869)
4) He hit best when hitting 3rd in the lineup(.766)
So my guess is that on a one year deal, on a team with a good lineup, he'd probably be ok as a utility LF/1B/DH being used in the middle of the lineup. I don't think he can play every day though.
1) He was significantly better in the first half(.749 OPS) vs the second half(.577). That does at least hint at an older player who wore down over the course of the season.
2) He hit significantly better at night (.734) than he did in day games(.563)
3) It's a very small sample size but he hit well as a DH(.869)
4) He hit best when hitting 3rd in the lineup(.766)
So my guess is that on a one year deal, on a team with a good lineup, he'd probably be ok as a utility LF/1B/DH being used in the middle of the lineup. I don't think he can play every day though.
hockeyfan1
New member
Re: Bautista
His xwOBA (on-base-weighted average) described as a stat that measures a hitter's "launch angle and exit velocity" (instead of the boxscore stat results), - - - and one in which many GMs including the Jays' own Ross Atkins, believe it's a more accurate stat measurement - - show Bautista's decline.
(via theathletic)
Per breaking balls:
Per fastballs:
His xwOBA (on-base-weighted average) described as a stat that measures a hitter's "launch angle and exit velocity" (instead of the boxscore stat results), - - - and one in which many GMs including the Jays' own Ross Atkins, believe it's a more accurate stat measurement - - show Bautista's decline.
(via theathletic)
Per breaking balls:
Per fastballs:
hockeyfan1
New member
Alright, for Just' N Sake, I shall.
hockeyfan1
New member
[tweet]897512643287814145[/tweet]
What are these showing? Basically Bautista's swings & misses from 2015 (first heatmap photo) to 2017 (last heatmap photo).
What are these showing? Basically Bautista's swings & misses from 2015 (first heatmap photo) to 2017 (last heatmap photo).
Nik the Trik said:
From what I've heard, which is mostly hearsay, we shouldn't count on him ability to play 3B at the major league level.
Also, if he does end up at 3B in a few years, JD might be able to take over SS from after Tulo's contract expires.
Or if JD's defense regresses, he could move to 1st/DH.
There could be ways to have both Vlad and JD in the lineup, which could be very good especially if Bichette's bat plays at this level too.
Kin
New member
Deebo said:
Outside of being very skeptical that a 34 year old Donaldson would handle a move to SS well, I don't disagree with anything here. The Jays certainly don't have to trade Donaldson and keeping him around would be good strictly in terms of how good a ball player he is.
But the question then becomes can you sign him to the reported 5 year/150 million deal that's rumoured to be the starting point? Does that significantly hinder your ability to add elsewhere?
Maybe more to the point, if you sign that deal and benefit from the first few years of it how moveable is it if you eventually think you need to reset?
hockeyfan1
New member
That definitely has to rank alongside Joe Carter's World Series winning home run.
Vintage Jose. Encapsulated everything the haters 'hated' him for and the fans 'loved' him for.
Exactly right...never forget.
Vintage Jose. Encapsulated everything the haters 'hated' him for and the fans 'loved' him for.
Exactly right...never forget.
Captain Canuck
New member
Rob Refsnyder has been claimed off waivers by the Indians.
Not a bad thing, didn't work out in Toronto.
Not a bad thing, didn't work out in Toronto.
Captain Canuck
New member
Jays acquire middle infielder Gift Ngoepe from the Pirates for a PTBNL or cash. Ngoepe is the 2nd African-born player in MLB history, first in over a century.
Captain Canuck
New member
Diaz is solid insurance with the health issues plaguing Tulo and Travis. We saw last year that middle infield was a bit of a black hole production-wise at the plate after they went down with injuries.
The numbers that Diaz will put up with his bat should make up for what is lost defensively. It will be interesting to see where he fits into the order. St. Louis had him in the 2 spot quite a bit and the Jays definitely need to find a couple guys at the top of the order that can get on base and set the table for the big bats.
The numbers that Diaz will put up with his bat should make up for what is lost defensively. It will be interesting to see where he fits into the order. St. Louis had him in the 2 spot quite a bit and the Jays definitely need to find a couple guys at the top of the order that can get on base and set the table for the big bats.