Jays Roster Discussion
- Thread starter Deebo
- Start date
So then why exactly do you feel that they shouldn't have allowed Tulo to attend spring training and build up some trade value? I understand the move in the sense that it gives the younger players playing time. But what I don't understand is paying him $30 million to do nothing when another team might have been willing to eat at least some salary had he proven to be a healthy and effective player.Andy said:
bustaheims
Active member
sickbeast said:
By the time he might have been able to build up enough value for another team to take on any meaningful amount of his salary, the Jays would have already had paid most of this season's salary, and he would have taken playing time away from the young guys the team wants to develop at the big league level. He hasn't played in a season and a half. It would have taken months for other teams to believe he's healthy enough to be a contributor - and that's not even considering the fact that, in his last two relatively healthy seasons, he was basically a roughly league average bat. If there are any issues with his ability to play a defensive position - there would be significant concerns, regardless of whether or not he is healthy enough to take the field in spring training. Even if he did generate some interest in spring training, the Jays would have been on the hook for basically his entire salary in any deal worth making, and, odds are against that deal materializing. Realistically, it's eat the contract now, and give Tulo a chance to catch on somewhere else, or eat the contract in the spring, and put Tulo in a much more difficult situation when it comes to finding a job.
At best, right now, his value is zero, and it's going to take a long time to build it up to anything substantially more than zero. That's time the team shouldn't be wasting on him, as the return isn't going to be anything worthwhile.
bustaheims said:
If I was the GM of another team, it would take half a season at the very least of strong play before I would even consider giving up anything of even remote value or take on significant money to get Tulo.
As the Jays, I'd rather give those PAs to Gurriel then hold out hope that they may be able to get a long shot prospect or save a few dollars.
bustaheims
Active member
Deebo said:
Exactly. He'd have to be in the lineup almost every day, produce at an above average level, and play stellar defence. That's asking a lot of someone who hasn't played in a year and a half.
Kin
New member
Yeah, the idea of Tulowitzki "building value" with a hot spring training or start to the season is pretty far fetched. Tulowitzki hasn't played 130 games in a season since 2011. It's not a question of can he be healthy or play well, although those are still valid questions, it's about staying healthy. There's no way for him to prove that outside of being healthy for a year and you're not going to give him a year of at-bats to prove that he's healthy.
"Building value" in this context is also sort of a zero-sum game. Every at-bat you give to Tulowitzki so he can "build value" is an at-bat you're not giving to Gurriel or Travis or Morales to try and let them build value and all three of those guys are probably more likely to "build value" in a meaningful sense than Tulowitzki is. There's almost certainly more value in seeing who Gurriel is when playing every day than whatever Tulowitzki could bring if he defeats the odds and has a strong season next year.
Could Tulowitzki play well enough in a limited role that you might be able to convince a team to eat some of his salary? Maybe but why do we care about that? The Jays aren't going to need to save that money over the next two years.
So what you have here is Shapiro and co. looking honestly and soberly about Tulowitzki's future with the club, deciding in favour of playing their younger guys with real futures and doing right by Tulowitzki by giving him a chance to latch on somewhere else. If they kept Tulowitzki with the intention of not playing him much, as his level of play would probably deserve, it'd make it harder on him to bounce back when they eventually did release him.
There's probably more "value" in Shapiro having the reputation among agents that he does with Tulo's agent than any sort of minor prospect Tulowitzki could have brought in if he was healthy.
"Building value" in this context is also sort of a zero-sum game. Every at-bat you give to Tulowitzki so he can "build value" is an at-bat you're not giving to Gurriel or Travis or Morales to try and let them build value and all three of those guys are probably more likely to "build value" in a meaningful sense than Tulowitzki is. There's almost certainly more value in seeing who Gurriel is when playing every day than whatever Tulowitzki could bring if he defeats the odds and has a strong season next year.
Could Tulowitzki play well enough in a limited role that you might be able to convince a team to eat some of his salary? Maybe but why do we care about that? The Jays aren't going to need to save that money over the next two years.
So what you have here is Shapiro and co. looking honestly and soberly about Tulowitzki's future with the club, deciding in favour of playing their younger guys with real futures and doing right by Tulowitzki by giving him a chance to latch on somewhere else. If they kept Tulowitzki with the intention of not playing him much, as his level of play would probably deserve, it'd make it harder on him to bounce back when they eventually did release him.
There's probably more "value" in Shapiro having the reputation among agents that he does with Tulo's agent than any sort of minor prospect Tulowitzki could have brought in if he was healthy.
L K
Active member
Tulo's value wouldn't be boosted by a good spring training. His injury issues and reputation as being a soft player are what will hold him back, on top of being extremely expensive. His bat fell off quite a bit before his trade to Toronto. He had a few really important hits for the organization but overall was just not a great acquisition. We wouldn't have received much of value for him in a trade even if we convinced someone to take him on and the benefit of Gurriel getting playing time or giving Travis an opportunity to perform up until his eventual replacement when Guerrero/Bichette/Biggio push into the Majors is more valuable in terms of building a trade asset.
This is a good move by the organization.
This is a good move by the organization.
dappleganger
Active member
L K said:
In 87 games before the trade to Toronto, Tulo was batting .300, was on pace for 22 home runs and 99 rbi and had a .818 OPS. The year previous he had an OPS over 1.000. Not sure where that narrative comes from.
His bat fell off after the trade to Toronto, but I'm not sure anyone could have predicted that. His 24 home runs and 79 rbi in 131 games in 2016 weren't too bad to be honest.
Kin
New member
Dappleganger said:
A lot of what you're seeing is just the illusion of playing in Coors Field. In his road stats in 2014 he slashed .257/.364/.447 and then in 2015 he drops to .276/.327/.409.
His Road OPS goes:
2013: .850
2014: .811
2015: .736
His .761 OPS in 2016 was actually a bit of a bounceback.
dappleganger
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
I get the Coors field bump, but his entire career was played at Coors Field and doesn't bear out a decline. His home OPS increased from 1.010 in 2013 to 1.246 in 2014.
His career "away" OPS is .791. 2013 and 2014 were both above that.
*His 2015 away OPS of .736 you listed above includes his time as a Jay. He had an .834 OPS at Coors field in 2015 and an .818 as a Rocky that year - putting his road OPS somewhere around .802 before his trade as a Jay. Honestly, I think it's all in what you'd expect from Troy Tulowitzki.
Kin
New member
Dappleganger said:
Right, but that's why road statistics are typically used as the context-neutral baseline. During his peak years(2009-2011), Tulowitzki had Road OPS's of .859, .863 and even .881. In 2013 it was fairly consistent with that and by 2015 it had fallen more than 100 points. So the evidence that he had already begun to slip from his peak is actually pretty strong even if Coors was covering that up a little.
One of the tricky things with Tulowitzki, because he was injured so often, is separating what of his decline is injury related, what is age related and what is just the standard variations in a baseball career. In this case though, when you compare him to his peak, it's pretty clear he was already moving away from his best years.
dappleganger
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
When the Jays traded for Tulo his road OPS hadn't fallen by more than 100 points.
I don't think anyone would argue that the Jays were trading for peak Troy Tulowitzki.
Kin
New member
Dappleganger said:
Right, I didn't say it had. From where he was consistently at his peak it had fallen by around 50 points by the time of the trade which is still a pretty meaningful decline. From 2013 to 2015 it's a fairly unmistakable downward slide in his ability to hit in any ballpark other than Coors.
dappleganger
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
Sorry, got confused. I thought we were talking about before the Jays traded for him.
Kin
New member
Dappleganger said:
Right and, again, when he was at his peak his road OPS was consistently in the 860-880 range. When he was traded he'd had about 180 games over two seasons where it was about 50-70 points lower than that.
So that's the evidence for the contention that his bat was already starting to slip when he was traded.