Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM

[Coco-puffs]

Even if he waits 12 months, 8x8 after a year off is as good as the hypothetical 8x7 offer on the table anyway...

Huge flaw in this logic.  If he waits 12 months he's essentially just signed a 64M deal over NINE years since he earned zilch over the previous year.  And he'd be worse off because he just ate into his next contract, where with the cap going up etc he'd probably earn much more than 8M AAV.  Did you mean 7 x 8M?

I take your point- I?m thinking less about the 8th/9th year than about the difference between a $7m and $8m offer over the next 8 years.

I.e the offer is:
7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7=56
What he gets is:

0-8-8-8-8-8-8-8= 56 (and yes if he then signs 8x8, another year at 8 tacked on the back)

I take your point that a 30 year old Nylander might well be able to get more than $8m/yr (and it may well be that the sticking point is how many UFA years he sells in this contract too...)

my thinking is relative to salary vs pressure to sign... I.e that he?s not going to cave in the next week because he fears missing a single (or even many) paychecks.

I'd have to think if the Leafs, on December 1st, aren't willing to meet Nylander's demands won't all of a sudden meet them come the following September. 

Maybe another team will, but recency bias is real and having nothing to see for a year won't help.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

Even if he waits 12 months, 8x8 after a year off is as good as the hypothetical 8x7 offer on the table anyway...

Huge flaw in this logic.  If he waits 12 months he's essentially just signed a 64M deal over NINE years since he earned zilch over the previous year.  And he'd be worse off because he just ate into his next contract, where with the cap going up etc he'd probably earn much more than 8M AAV.  Did you mean 7 x 8M?

I take your point- I?m thinking less about the 8th/9th year than about the difference between a $7m and $8m offer over the next 8 years.

I.e the offer is:
7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7=56
What he gets is:

0-8-8-8-8-8-8-8= 56 (and yes if he then signs 8x8, another year at 8 tacked on the back)

I take your point that a 30 year old Nylander might well be able to get more than $8m/yr (and it may well be that the sticking point is how many UFA years he sells in this contract too...)

my thinking is relative to salary vs pressure to sign... I.e that he?s not going to cave in the next week because he fears missing a single (or even many) paychecks.

I'd have to think if the Leafs, on December 1st, aren't willing to meet Nylander's demands won't all of a sudden meet them come the following September. 

Maybe another team will, but recency bias is real and having nothing to see for a year won't help.

Yeah, if it gets that far, I think a trade the most likely outcome. I hope it won?t... realistically, this was always going to be a tough negotiation (regardless of Taveres), but my concern is this has the ingredients to go deep... and as a Leafs fan it has the perfect feel to
Be the other shoe dropping.

Good young player, tightening cap situation, even better young players to sign on the horizon...

I want to keep all 3, but for all the assurance when we sign Taveres, $8m to Nylander, $10 to Marner, $11 to Tavares and $11+ to Matthews and the numbers get tight.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

I just don't see how they can afford to keep the "top 4".  One of them has to go, and I vote Nylander. 

 

[dappleganger]

I just don't see how they can afford to keep the "top 4".  One of them has to go, and I vote Nylander.

I think they can keep them but it has to be something along the lines of WN $6.5m, MM $7m, and AM 10.5m.

God help the Leafs if one of them flames out.

 

[Bates]

Nylander is the only one who's contract might match that.

I just don't see how they can afford to keep the "top 4".  One of them has to go, and I vote Nylander.

I think they can keep them but it has to be something along the lines of WN $6.5m, MM $7m, and AM 10.5m.

God help the Leafs if one of them flames out.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I just don't see how they can afford to keep the "top 4".  One of them has to go, and I vote Nylander.

I think they can keep them but it has to be something along the lines of WN $6.5m, MM $7m, and AM 10.5m.

Heh, I doubt any of them sign for as low as these estimates on a long term deal.

 

[jdh1]

I just don't see how they can afford to keep the "top 4".  One of them has to go, and I vote Nylander.

I think they can keep them but it has to be something along the lines of WN $6.5m, MM $7m, and AM 10.5m.

God help the Leafs if one of them flames out.

With the  Taveras on board this summer spelled the end of Nylander as a Leaf.  I just don't think he' s  Babs kind of player.  I'm predicting he will be traded.

 

[Zee]

I just don't see how they can afford to keep the "top 4".  One of them has to go, and I vote Nylander.

I think they can keep them but it has to be something along the lines of WN $6.5m, MM $7m, and AM 10.5m.

Heh, I doubt any of them sign for as low as these estimates on a long term deal.

We should find out soon enough on Nylander (I hope). I don't expect it to start with a 7, even if it's $6.9M they want to crunch every 100k

 

[Zee]

Well, this is interesting. I'm sure Pridham and Dubas know all the ins and outs of this:

https://twitter.com/CapFriendly/status/1045315053539545088?s=19

 

[Highlander]

I would love to see Willie sit at home and lose more money not playing that he can gain, even if he gets 8 million a season down the road, like perhaps sitting out the season.
Sorry I think he is being a greedy little Norse God piggy. But what do I know

 

[Kin]

I just don't see how they can afford to keep the "top 4".  One of them has to go, and I vote Nylander.

They can keep them, I pointed out in the contracts thread how only minimal cap growth would lead to a situation where their combined salaries wouldn't be all that out of line cap % wise from what Pittsburgh did, but they can't keep them and not have to make sacrifices elsewhere. Thing is, that was always going to be true and will be true no matter what any of them sign for. Nylander at 6 per or Nylander at 8.5 per doesn't change that drastically.

If you have a bunch of super talented players, you're going to have to pay them. That's going to lead to cap issues. Teams can't be built like the Blackhawks any more where you have a few key guys with bogus AAV's. Teams with elite talent will have depth issues, teams with great depth will probably not have a ton of elite talent.

This is also going to be an issue whether or not Nylander gets dealt. Unless you deal him for a bunch of lesser pieces a roughly equivalent defenseman is also going to want to get paid fairly and then you're right back to your top 4 guys making 40% or more of the cap.

This is why, BTW, some people made such a big deal about the Leafs not moving on from JVR and others at the deadline. Adding high valued young assets to fill in as depth is probably the best way to address the kind of depth issues a team like the Leafs are going to have. Throwing that away for a team that wasn't likely to make any noise in the playoffs was a really indefensible decision.

The salary cap sucks. And, as we can see in Tampa, it doesn't actually suck equally. It is, in fact, an unfair way for sports to work. If any of you dislike the practical realities the Leafs are dealing with...remember that next CBA dispute.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

It?s not a union (?) thing, it?s that there are very few people in the world who can play hockey as well as William Nylander can.

I'm not speaking in the terms of the NHLPA but just a general observation. Most unions feel that by striking or holding out(or in this case not signing a contract), that they will be better off in the end but when in fact, they never make back they $ the lost in their time off.

 

[Kin]

It?s not a union (?) thing, it?s that there are very few people in the world who can play hockey as well as William Nylander can.

I'm not speaking in the terms of the NHLPA but just a general observation. Most unions feel that by striking or holding out(or in this case not signing a contract), that they will be better off in the end but when in fact, they never make back they $ the lost in their time off.

Yeah, that's not really true though is it.

 

[herman]

When did everyone here get hired by TSN?

 

[leafsjunkie]

Yeah, I don't get it.

Nik has made great points and people gloss over it.

Nylander will get his money, he is worth it. He is not being traded and is not being greedy.
Anyone else would do the same thing.

And all this"Sign Marner and Matthew's now" or "they should have signed Nylander last year" stuff, it doesn't work like that, not with these caliber of players.

They are betting on themselves and are not signing a deal early, when they know they have another year to prove their worth and get their money....

The deals will get done and all 3 will be Leafs for a long time. Book it.

 

[Zee]

Yeah, I don't get it.

Nik has made great points and people gloss over it.

Nylander will get his money, he is worth it. He is not being traded and is not being greedy.
Anyone else would do the same thing.

And all this"Sign Marner and Matthew's now" or "they should have signed Nylander last year" stuff, it doesn't work like that, not with these caliber of players.

They are betting on themselves and are not signing a deal early, when they know they have another year to prove their worth and get their money....

The deals will get done and all 3 will be Leafs for a long time. Book it.

About signing Nylander last year it's a fair question.  Lou was still GM, so it makes sense we wouldn't have heard anything if they were even talking to the agent about an extension, but the old "when you have time use it" crap that Lou spouted seems to have backfired here.  They should have tried to agree to an extension in the summer of 2017 with Willy like other RFAs did (signing their extension with still a year left on their ELC). 

Dubas has made no secret of the fact he's already talking with Matthews and Marner's agents and he hopes to get extensions worked out before next summer, so hopefully it happens sometime in season.  They should have done the same approach with Nylander last year.

 

[leafsjunkie]

Yeah, I don't get it.

Nik has made great points and people gloss over it.

Nylander will get his money, he is worth it. He is not being traded and is not being greedy.
Anyone else would do the same thing.

And all this"Sign Marner and Matthew's now" or "they should have signed Nylander last year" stuff, it doesn't work like that, not with these caliber of players.

They are betting on themselves and are not signing a deal early, when they know they have another year to prove their worth and get their money....

The deals will get done and all 3 will be Leafs for a long time. Book it.

About signing Nylander last year it's a fair question.  Lou was still GM, so it makes sense we wouldn't have heard anything if they were even talking to the agent about an extension, but the old "when you have time use it" crap that Lou spouted seems to have backfired here.  They should have tried to agree to an extension in the summer of 2017 with Willy like other RFAs did (signing their extension with still a year left on their ELC). 

Dubas has made no secret of the fact he's already talking with Matthews and Marner's agents and he hopes to get extensions worked out before next summer, so hopefully it happens sometime in season.  They should have done the same approach with Nylander last year.

Just because they are talking, doesn't mean a discount and TBH, I would be very surprised if M & M signed during the season.
Their agents aren't dumb, again, this isn't middling players.

The numbers Matthews, Nylander and Marner are going to put up this year, will guarantee it won't get done until seasons end for M & M.

I don't think Nylander would have signed last off season, after 1 full year and 22 games the previous year, makes no sense from his perspective.

 

[Zee]

Yeah, I don't get it.

Nik has made great points and people gloss over it.

Nylander will get his money, he is worth it. He is not being traded and is not being greedy.
Anyone else would do the same thing.

And all this"Sign Marner and Matthew's now" or "they should have signed Nylander last year" stuff, it doesn't work like that, not with these caliber of players.

They are betting on themselves and are not signing a deal early, when they know they have another year to prove their worth and get their money....

The deals will get done and all 3 will be Leafs for a long time. Book it.

About signing Nylander last year it's a fair question.  Lou was still GM, so it makes sense we wouldn't have heard anything if they were even talking to the agent about an extension, but the old "when you have time use it" crap that Lou spouted seems to have backfired here.  They should have tried to agree to an extension in the summer of 2017 with Willy like other RFAs did (signing their extension with still a year left on their ELC). 

Dubas has made no secret of the fact he's already talking with Matthews and Marner's agents and he hopes to get extensions worked out before next summer, so hopefully it happens sometime in season.  They should have done the same approach with Nylander last year.

Just because they are talking, doesn't mean a discount and TBH, I would be very surprised if M & M signed during the season.
Their agents aren't dumb, again, this isn't middling players.

The numbers Matthews, Nylander and Marner are going to put up this year, will guarantee it won't get done until seasons end for M & M.

You don't know this.  Leafs and agents will use projections to base the framework of the deal, everyone knows what's up.  I have no doubt M&M will get paid but I think it can still happen during the season.

 

[Kin]

About signing Nylander last year it's a fair question.  Lou was still GM, so it makes sense we wouldn't have heard anything if they were even talking to the agent about an extension, but the old "when you have time use it" crap that Lou spouted seems to have backfired here.  They should have tried to agree to an extension in the summer of 2017 with Willy like other RFAs did (signing their extension with still a year left on their ELC). 

My gut says they probably did try but the problem there is that typically RFA extensions getting signed before an ELC expires get worked out because the team is generally willing to give a deal that trends towards the more player-friendly of the comparables. If the Leafs general negotiating stance is "You guys should take significantly less than market because you should consider your own financial interests as less important than those of Rogers and Bell media" then that's a much tougher sell.

McDavid got his extension done early because the Oilers were effectively willing to give him whatever he wanted. Ditto the "bad" deal the Sabres gave Eichel. I don't think you both get to play hard ball and sign your RFAs early.

 

[Coco-puffs]

About signing Nylander last year it's a fair question.  Lou was still GM, so it makes sense we wouldn't have heard anything if they were even talking to the agent about an extension, but the old "when you have time use it" crap that Lou spouted seems to have backfired here.  They should have tried to agree to an extension in the summer of 2017 with Willy like other RFAs did (signing their extension with still a year left on their ELC). 

My gut says they probably did try but the problem there is that typically RFA extensions getting signed before an ELC expires get worked out because the team is generally willing to give a deal that trends towards the more player-friendly of the comparables. If the Leafs general negotiating stance is "You guys should take significantly less than market because you should consider your own financial interests as less important than those of Rogers and Bell media" then that's a much tougher sell.

McDavid got his extension done early because the Oilers were effectively willing to give him whatever he wanted. Ditto the "bad" deal the Sabres gave Eichel. I don't think you both get to play hard ball and sign your RFAs early.

Seriously?  You think THAT is the sell?  Not, "unfortunately we play in a hard cap league and if we want to field the best team possible it would help if you took a bit of a discount"

Do you really think the Leafs are asking all of these guys to take SIGNIFICANT discounts?  Like, what type of contract is a significant discount to you?