Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM

[herman]

It's his birthday today

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/ATFulemin/status/1062119400470388736

 

[L K]

Seriously though, arguments about signing Tavares aside:

Tavares, while great, is not what the Leafs needed. All the money spent on him will not stop the team?s goals-against average.

and

The high-octane Leafs that were headed toward a championship took the wrong fork in the tracks.

This is embarrassingly bad writing.

I liked how he said the Leafs goals against is not championship quality, you mean like the eventual champions Washington who allowed more regular season goals than the Leafs? [emoji848]

This year - 46 goals against in 17GP = 2.71 GAA (currently 7th best in the league)
Last year - 232 goals against in 82GP = 2.80 GAA (12th in the league last year)

So technically the Leafs have improved their GAA with the addition of Tavares.

It's also funny because the Leafs gave up 2.80 goals/game last year.  The Cup winners gave up 2.90 goals/game.  The Winnipeg Jets gave up 2.63 goals/game (14 goals over 82 games).  The Eastern Conference Finalists gave up 2.85 goals/game and the Western Conference Finalists gave up 2.74 goals/game.

So the average GAA for the four Conference Finalists was 2.78 goals/game.  That averages out to about a 1.6 goals more per season given up be the Leafs than the average of the four "best" teams in hockey last year. 

 

[Zee]

Seriously though, arguments about signing Tavares aside:

Tavares, while great, is not what the Leafs needed. All the money spent on him will not stop the team?s goals-against average.

and

The high-octane Leafs that were headed toward a championship took the wrong fork in the tracks.

This is embarrassingly bad writing.

I liked how he said the Leafs goals against is not championship quality, you mean like the eventual champions Washington who allowed more regular season goals than the Leafs? [emoji848]

This year - 46 goals against in 17GP = 2.71 GAA (currently 7th best in the league)
Last year - 232 goals against in 82GP = 2.80 GAA (12th in the league last year)

So technically the Leafs have improved their GAA with the addition of Tavares.

It's also funny because the Leafs gave up 2.80 goals/game last year.  The Cup winners gave up 2.90 goals/game.  The Winnipeg Jets gave up 2.63 goals/game (14 goals over 82 games).  The Eastern Conference Finalists gave up 2.85 goals/game and the Western Conference Finalists gave up 2.74 goals/game.

So the average GAA for the four Conference Finalists was 2.78 goals/game.  That averages out to about a 1.6 goals more per season given up be the Leafs than the average of the four "best" teams in hockey last year.

I think it's more Andersen playing out of his mind earlier this season that has led to fewer goals against for the Leafs (so far)

 

[Bender]

https://twitter.com/ATFulemin/status/1062119400470388736

If that were an option why wouldn't they have done that?

 

[herman]

If that were an option why wouldn't they have done that?

The Leafs would've been all for it. The players had plenty of reason to believe year 3 of their ELCs would be nuts. The only way teams get their young stars a year before their ELC expiry is presenting an immediate overpay.

 

[Kin]

The Leafs would've been all for it. The players had plenty of reason to believe year 3 of their ELCs would be nuts. The only way teams get their young stars a year before their ELC expiry is presenting an immediate overpay.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Unless by "overpay" you mean more or less what the player would have gotten without all the hassle. McDavid is the fairly obvious example of the guy who got his 2nd deal, at a relatively fair rate, as soon as he could. Admittedly, McDavid isn't a typical player even among exceptional players but I'm guessing with 15 minutes and some detective work we could find a host of guys who it's equally true of.

 

[herman]

The Leafs would've been all for it. The players had plenty of reason to believe year 3 of their ELCs would be nuts. The only way teams get their young stars a year before their ELC expiry is presenting an immediate overpay.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Unless by "overpay" you mean more or less what the player would have gotten without all the hassle. McDavid is the fairly obvious example of the guy who got his 2nd deal, at a relatively fair rate, as soon as he could. Admittedly, McDavid isn't a typical player even among exceptional players but I'm guessing with 15 minutes and some detective work we could find a host of guys who it's equally true of.

McDavid was the exception I immediately thought of as I wrote this and he is an exceptional case. Honestly, I don't know why he signed early, and why he signed for less, but that's hockey brainwashing in a nutshell.

I was thinking of guys like Ekblad, Eichel, and Ehlers. And yes, that was the definition of 'overpay' I was angling at. Recognition of potential, and paying commensurately, but with term attached and therefore potential savings in the latter half.

 

[Kin]

I was thinking of guys like Ekblad, Eichel, and Ehlers.

I don't know that I think of Ehlers as a huge overpayment but sure. On the flipside though you have guys like Hall, Seguin and Tavares who signed their 2nd deals with a year left on their ELCs and who signed pretty reasonable 2nd deals.

 

[herman]

I don't know that I think of Ehlers as a huge overpayment but sure. On the flipside though you have guys like Hall, Seguin and Tavares who signed their 2nd deals with a year left on their ELCs and who signed pretty reasonable 2nd deals.

No, Ehlers is not technically an overpay, but he definitely could have been squeezed down lower as an RFA without arbitration.

Seguin's is weird, but I think there were some mitigating circumstances with the shortened season and CBA edits coming down the line.

Tavares is in the same boat as McDavid: poorly managed team, first overall saviour who grew up always carrying team responsibility because he could...

 

[Kin]

No, Ehlers is not technically an overpay, but he definitely could have been squeezed down lower as an RFA without arbitration.

Some teams may value their relationships with their players more than squeezing every nickle they can out of them.

Tavares is in the same boat as McDavid: poorly managed team, first overall saviour who grew up always carrying team responsibility because he could...

Fair point. Very different situation than anyone the Leafs have to sign.

 

[herman]

Some teams may value their relationships with their players more than squeezing every nickel they can out of them.

If there wasn't a Marner deal looming, Nylander's would already be done. Marner's is going to be fire and brimstone compared to this cold brew.

 

[Kin]

If there wasn't a Marner deal looming, Nylander's would already be done. Marner's is going to be fire and brimstone compared to this cold brew.

The Jets would have signed Ehlers knowing they also had to negotiate long term deals with Trouba and Laine but sure.

My point, my dear and treasured Herman, is just that players are different. Some guys want to fight it out tooth and nail, others don't. I think that's why some guys get reasonable deals ASAP, others get reasonable deals at the wire and everything in between.

 

[herman]

The Jets would have signed Ehlers knowing they also had to negotiate long term deals with Trouba and Laine but sure.

My point, my dear and treasured Herman, is just that players are different. Some guys want to fight it out tooth and nail, others don't. I think that's why some guys get reasonable deals ASAP, others get reasonable deals at the wire and everything in between.

No disagreement about that here. Just saying if you want to get a deal at the end of ELC year 2, 'overpay' + term is how you'd get it done. What constitutes an overpay is down to the individual player's self valuation. If we offered 7.2M AAV over 8 years to Nylander the summer 2017 instead of signing Marleau or Zaitsev's extension, is he not just ripping up the league right now?

 

[Kin]

No disagreement about that here. Just saying if you want to get a deal at the end of ELC year 2, 'overpay' + term is how you'd get it done. What constitutes an overpay is down to the individual player's self valuation. If we offered 7.2M AAV over 8 years to Nylander the summer 2017 instead of signing Marleau or Zaitsev's extension, is he not just ripping up the league right now?

Well, again, I don't agree re: "overpay" so much as it is not scrapping for nickels but I think it's just as much about the faith a team has in a player. If Winnipeg thinks that in a few years the idea of Ehlers being "overpaid" at 6 million will be a joke, then why care about maybe getting him for 5.75 if you avoid the troubles?

Teams looking to sign players before they play out their ELCs are making bets that the "overpay" will still be on better terms than they could get if they let a player play that third year and put up big numbers. They are also making a decision re: savings vs. strife.

 

[herman]

No disagreement about that here. Just saying if you want to get a deal at the end of ELC year 2, 'overpay' + term is how you'd get it done. What constitutes an overpay is down to the individual player's self valuation. If we offered 7.2M AAV over 8 years to Nylander the summer 2017 instead of signing Marleau or Zaitsev's extension, is he not just ripping up the league right now?

Well, again, I don't agree re: "overpay" so much as it is not scrapping for nickels but I think it's just as much about the faith a team has in a player. If Winnipeg thinks that in a few years the idea of Ehlers being "overpaid" at 6 million will be a joke, then why care about maybe getting him for 5.75 if you avoid the troubles?

Teams looking to sign players before they play out their ELCs are making bets that the "overpay" will still be on better terms than they could get if they let a player play that third year and put up big numbers. They are also making a decision re: savings vs. strife.

I want to say that was the point I was trying to articulate ('overpay': potential vs prior performance), but you've summed it up very nicely.

 

[slapshot]

I agree with the recent round of reporting that suggests that if the Leafs trade Nylander, they simply get the best player available for him, whether d-man or forward. Personally, I don't see why they can't get something done if only a bridge for a couple of years and then revisit the whole thing once Marleau comes off the books, and Marner and Matthews have signed. Nylander would have a couple more years to prove himself. Right now, I can't see the Leafs management going overboard on this. I know Dubas will catch a lot of flack, if he doesn't get Nylander signed before Dec. 1, but I'd sooner let him sit for a year before 1) overpaying excessively or 2) trading him without fair value in return. I'd much sooner see a one-for-one deal like the Seth Jones-Ryan Johansen, where both sides get a fair return. Whether a deal like that is possible, who knows? I am not much interested in the Leafs trading for quantity over quality. Seems weird to think some kind of deal can't get done...

 

[hockeyfan1]

Signing Nylander to a one-year deal would not be the end of the world for Dubas, even when Nylander would take to arbitration after a year of having signed.  Sure he will be seeking a long-term high value contract afterwards through arbitration, but in this way it could buy Dubas and the Leafs time & preparation leading up to that point.

It would be the best of the worst to say the least.  Besides, as much as Dubas & the Nylander camp seem stuck at this impasse, in the end one could say that a one year deal would work in both in Dubas' and Nylander's favour -- the former re-establishes some sort credibility & trust in his player and the latter gets to play and contribute to his team.

Better this way than no way at all.

https://theathletic.com/650523/2018/11/13/mirtle-why-the-maple-leafs-losing-william-nylander-for-the-season-cant-be-the-endgame/

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/gthlhockey/status/1066349345639927809

I am ethically obligated to show you this demonstration video as well:
https://twitter.com/harleivy/status/1063258248931930113

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/davidnestico200/status/1066823359575535617