Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/05/12/kyle-dubas-on-mike-babcock-the-stuff-he-gets-from-our-research-and-development-people-ive-never-seen-a-coach-go-through-it-as-in-depth-and-look-for-the-edges-within-that/

Thanks, I missed that interview. Interesting that he also admits that during Lou's first season the two didn't work very closely, but things changed after that.

PTS does a great job asking the questions that blossom into deep answers.

The quote that I'd like to highlight here also speaks to how I view this board:

You spoke the same language, or did it take time to figure out that you actually did speak the same language?

Dubas: I don?t think we [Lou and I] ever spoke precisely the same language. The thing that really evolved is, when we had a difference in how I thought things were versus Lou had thought for a long time, it just created good discussion. I think you know you?re getting to a good relationship point with somebody when you can have a difference in ideas and walk away from it and never really worry that it is going to impact your relationship long term. You?re all trying to reach the same goal, which is to help the Maple Leafs. I think, for me, that was the major thing for Lou that I gained ? the bringing in of different ideas and how to put them all together to best help the Maple Leafs.

Dubas mentioned this in his other interviews as well, but Lou's mentorship of him was pretty much not about hockey, but about managing personalities, showing people they're valuable (and thus gaining buy-in), and protecting the group to let them operate at their best.

 

[Zee]

A lot of what Shanahan said yesterday amounted to: 4 years ago, he listened and hired based on what others told him; this time, he listened and watched for 4 years to see which part of the brain trust had the right ideas and approach.

Admittedly this is reading between the lines here, but Shanny's talk about making this decision based on watching how the management team worked the past few years and the decisions/debates that were made/had... you gotta wonder if there were things that Dubas either did or wanted to do that others didn't and with the benefit of hindsight Dubas ended up being right in some of those calls more than the others were.

That could be a factor for sure.  Shanahan knows all the conversations that were had with the old team, so he can see where things worked and where they didn't.  He obviously buys into Dubas's vision of how a team should be built or he wouldn't have picked him to run this ship.

 

[herman]

A lot of what Shanahan said yesterday amounted to: 4 years ago, he listened and hired based on what others told him; this time, he listened and watched for 4 years to see which part of the brain trust had the right ideas and approach.

Admittedly this is reading between the lines here, but Shanny's talk about making this decision based on watching how the management team worked the past few years and the decisions/debates that were made/had... you gotta wonder if there were things that Dubas either did or wanted to do that others didn't and with the benefit of hindsight Dubas ended up being right in some of those calls more than the others were.

*cough Martin cough*

Dubas had almost full autonomy in running everything other than the Maple Leafs-level decisions. It sounds like his voice, so clear and strong and visible before Lou, was largely pushed to the side once Hunter and Babcock had more implicit support from Lou.

 

[cabber24]

This interview was noteworthy to me because in it he talked a little about the Dubas-to-Colorado situation. Shanny, completely unprompted in any way, said Dubas wasn't very pleased that he was blocked from going there at first but was still completely professional about it.

Dubas obliquely mentioned the same in his opening presser (or one of the follow up interviews that first day).

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/05/12/kyle-dubas-on-mike-babcock-the-stuff-he-gets-from-our-research-and-development-people-ive-never-seen-a-coach-go-through-it-as-in-depth-and-look-for-the-edges-within-that/

You have to [sic] potential ? if not the opportunity ? to take the job in Colorado, and your President stands in the way of that. Did it piss you off?

Dubas: I think in the short term, you have an opportunity, and you have tried to work towards that, but after the initial discussion with Brendan and kind of getting over that, I just said, ?You can look at it and feel sorry for yourself, or you can get to work on the season ahead with the Maple Leafs.? I think that?s really where my relationship with Lou was a big benefit, in leaning on Lou during that and leaning on Lou during the year to help improve myself and thus help improve the hockey club.

After reading a bunch of stories, seeing the fallout from Shanahan's decision in choosing Dubas, I just have to say that Shanahan has some huge brass balls.  He blocked Colorado from poaching Dubas last year so he could hand over the organization to him this season.  He's put a ton of faith in this kid.  If it works out, I'll be the first guy to go and worship at the statue of Brendan Shanahan.  If the Leafs become a Cup champion, and a perennial contender from all this, he (Shanahan) will be spoken about in Leafs circles the same way as Conn Smythe.

If Matt Martin plays one shift of one playoff game in a Stanley Cup winning year he would be a God in Toronto. To play any role what's so ever when this team's win your royalty forever.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/999304681343111168

This is an interesting suggestion. Gilman was Vancouver's assistant GM back when they weren't a laughing stock and always seemed like a forward-thinking executive. He apparently interviewed and then turned down the GM job in Carolina for all the obvious reasons. He also did some work with Vegas early on, helping them with their strategy for the expansion draft.

 

[herman]

@Achayria, former writer for PPP and editor/writer for Raw Charge pointed out that one of the biggest inefficiencies with a lot of untapped potential to take advantage of would be hiring women to NHL management.

 

[sickbeast]

I honestly think the whole thing with Dubas is either going to go really well or else really badly. It's a real trial by fire for him. He's either going to sink or swim. We'll see. I am cautiously optimistic personally. His stat knowledge is impressive. But there is something to be said for Lou's years of experience running a team. Things like trades and negotiations worry me somewhat with Dubas. We'll see. I was not happy with what Lou did at the end of this season. He should have stocked assets.

It's got to be either one or the other.  Unless the Leafs are just mediocre, which I suppose will be viewed as "really bad".  The problem is, especially with the draft strategy, you need a bit of time and distance to appreciate picks made outside the first round.  You can see that from people tying to evaluate Hunter's draft record.  Outside of the first round picks (and Dermott in round 2), we haven't seen any breakthroughs on the players that Hunter decided on.  Does that mean he did a piss poor job in drafting?  For now it appears that way, but  maybe a few of the players picked later make contributions next season or the year after and we look back and realize Hunter actually did a fairly good job.  The same will apply to Dubas.  People will want to see changes right away, but often times it doesn't work that fast. 

I guess the immediate changes he could make to improve the team for next season is the subtraction of guys like Martin, Komarov, Polak and the Leafs promote from within to give some speedy Marlies a shot.  It'll be interesting to see if he pulls off any signing or trades for players we might not expect who are currently undervalued by the NHL.

The market is going to want to see results fast.  This team had 105 points this season, but lost in round 1.  That's not going to cut it for this upcoming season.  If the team doesn't progress past round 1 again, it'll be viewed as a huge failure and the stories will begin that Dubas didn't do enough to improve the Leafs.  Man he's got a tough job.

The big question is, how are they going to replace JVR's 40 goals? Not to mention Bozak.

 

[Zee]

I honestly think the whole thing with Dubas is either going to go really well or else really badly. It's a real trial by fire for him. He's either going to sink or swim. We'll see. I am cautiously optimistic personally. His stat knowledge is impressive. But there is something to be said for Lou's years of experience running a team. Things like trades and negotiations worry me somewhat with Dubas. We'll see. I was not happy with what Lou did at the end of this season. He should have stocked assets.

It's got to be either one or the other.  Unless the Leafs are just mediocre, which I suppose will be viewed as "really bad".  The problem is, especially with the draft strategy, you need a bit of time and distance to appreciate picks made outside the first round.  You can see that from people tying to evaluate Hunter's draft record.  Outside of the first round picks (and Dermott in round 2), we haven't seen any breakthroughs on the players that Hunter decided on.  Does that mean he did a piss poor job in drafting?  For now it appears that way, but  maybe a few of the players picked later make contributions next season or the year after and we look back and realize Hunter actually did a fairly good job.  The same will apply to Dubas.  People will want to see changes right away, but often times it doesn't work that fast. 

I guess the immediate changes he could make to improve the team for next season is the subtraction of guys like Martin, Komarov, Polak and the Leafs promote from within to give some speedy Marlies a shot.  It'll be interesting to see if he pulls off any signing or trades for players we might not expect who are currently undervalued by the NHL.

The market is going to want to see results fast.  This team had 105 points this season, but lost in round 1.  That's not going to cut it for this upcoming season.  If the team doesn't progress past round 1 again, it'll be viewed as a huge failure and the stories will begin that Dubas didn't do enough to improve the Leafs.  Man he's got a tough job.

The big question is, how are they going to replace JVR's 40 goals? Not to mention Bozak.

It's a matter of scoring more by committee.  Instead of one player getting 36 goals (JVR), let's say Matthews and Nylander each get more PP time and they score 7-8 goals each more than they would have otherwise. 

Matthews +8
Nylander +7
--------------
15 extra goals

Then you hope that guys like Johnsson and Kapanen can get 10-15 each?
Johnsson + 13
Kapanen + 12
------------------
25 extra goals

Martin and Komarov only combined for 10 goals on the season, replace them with guys that might score 8-10 each, and you have an additional 16-20 goals.

The math can add up with better players on each line.

 

[Bender]

I honestly think the whole thing with Dubas is either going to go really well or else really badly. It's a real trial by fire for him. He's either going to sink or swim. We'll see. I am cautiously optimistic personally. His stat knowledge is impressive. But there is something to be said for Lou's years of experience running a team. Things like trades and negotiations worry me somewhat with Dubas. We'll see. I was not happy with what Lou did at the end of this season. He should have stocked assets.

It's got to be either one or the other.  Unless the Leafs are just mediocre, which I suppose will be viewed as "really bad".  The problem is, especially with the draft strategy, you need a bit of time and distance to appreciate picks made outside the first round.  You can see that from people tying to evaluate Hunter's draft record.  Outside of the first round picks (and Dermott in round 2), we haven't seen any breakthroughs on the players that Hunter decided on.  Does that mean he did a piss poor job in drafting?  For now it appears that way, but  maybe a few of the players picked later make contributions next season or the year after and we look back and realize Hunter actually did a fairly good job.  The same will apply to Dubas.  People will want to see changes right away, but often times it doesn't work that fast. 

I guess the immediate changes he could make to improve the team for next season is the subtraction of guys like Martin, Komarov, Polak and the Leafs promote from within to give some speedy Marlies a shot.  It'll be interesting to see if he pulls off any signing or trades for players we might not expect who are currently undervalued by the NHL.

The market is going to want to see results fast.  This team had 105 points this season, but lost in round 1.  That's not going to cut it for this upcoming season.  If the team doesn't progress past round 1 again, it'll be viewed as a huge failure and the stories will begin that Dubas didn't do enough to improve the Leafs.  Man he's got a tough job.

The big question is, how are they going to replace JVR's 40 goals? Not to mention Bozak.

Bozak ain't getting any younger and he was a bit of a defensive liability. Not really worried about him. You replace JVR by committee, hopefully through Andreas Johnsson and Carl Grundstrom (I mean, he's got to get more than Komarov). Give Kapanen more minutes higher up in the lineup, a full year of AM with more PP time. Spread the dough that would go to JVR to grab a big fish in free agency.

It won't be easy but I don't think JVR is really all that important. Yeah, lots of goals, but he had a lot of warts to his game. I think if you get a few players who have some pop but are better defensively you're better off.

 

[Bender]

I honestly think the whole thing with Dubas is either going to go really well or else really badly. It's a real trial by fire for him. He's either going to sink or swim. We'll see. I am cautiously optimistic personally. His stat knowledge is impressive. But there is something to be said for Lou's years of experience running a team. Things like trades and negotiations worry me somewhat with Dubas. We'll see. I was not happy with what Lou did at the end of this season. He should have stocked assets.

It's got to be either one or the other.  Unless the Leafs are just mediocre, which I suppose will be viewed as "really bad".  The problem is, especially with the draft strategy, you need a bit of time and distance to appreciate picks made outside the first round.  You can see that from people tying to evaluate Hunter's draft record.  Outside of the first round picks (and Dermott in round 2), we haven't seen any breakthroughs on the players that Hunter decided on.  Does that mean he did a piss poor job in drafting?  For now it appears that way, but  maybe a few of the players picked later make contributions next season or the year after and we look back and realize Hunter actually did a fairly good job.  The same will apply to Dubas.  People will want to see changes right away, but often times it doesn't work that fast. 

I guess the immediate changes he could make to improve the team for next season is the subtraction of guys like Martin, Komarov, Polak and the Leafs promote from within to give some speedy Marlies a shot.  It'll be interesting to see if he pulls off any signing or trades for players we might not expect who are currently undervalued by the NHL.

The market is going to want to see results fast.  This team had 105 points this season, but lost in round 1.  That's not going to cut it for this upcoming season.  If the team doesn't progress past round 1 again, it'll be viewed as a huge failure and the stories will begin that Dubas didn't do enough to improve the Leafs.  Man he's got a tough job.

The big question is, how are they going to replace JVR's 40 goals? Not to mention Bozak.

It's a matter of scoring more by committee.  Instead of one player getting 36 goals (JVR), let's say Matthews and Nylander each get more PP time and they score 7-8 goals each more than they would have otherwise. 

Matthews +8
Nylander +7
--------------
15 extra goals

Then you hope that guys like Johnsson and Kapanen can get 10-15 each?
Johnsson + 13
Kapanen + 12
------------------
25 extra goals

Martin and Komarov only combined for 10 goals on the season, replace them with guys that might score 8-10 each, and you have an additional 16-20 goals.

The math can add up with better players on each line.

AM probably scores more by virtue of being healthy and on top PP. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit close to 50.

 

[bustaheims]

It's a matter of scoring more by committee.  Instead of one player getting 36 goals (JVR), let's say Matthews and Nylander each get more PP time and they score 7-8 goals each more than they would have otherwise. 

Matthews +8
Nylander +7
--------------
15 extra goals

Then you hope that guys like Johnsson and Kapanen can get 10-15 each?
Johnsson + 13
Kapanen + 12
------------------
25 extra goals

Martin and Komarov only combined for 10 goals on the season, replace them with guys that might score 8-10 each, and you have an additional 16-20 goals.

The math can add up with better players on each line.

On top of that, if you replace them with players who are better defensively, you don't have to recoup all the goals to come out ahead. If you can replace 80% of their offence, while reducing the amount of goals against in those minutes by 25-30%, the team is in better shape.

 

[Zee]

I honestly think the whole thing with Dubas is either going to go really well or else really badly. It's a real trial by fire for him. He's either going to sink or swim. We'll see. I am cautiously optimistic personally. His stat knowledge is impressive. But there is something to be said for Lou's years of experience running a team. Things like trades and negotiations worry me somewhat with Dubas. We'll see. I was not happy with what Lou did at the end of this season. He should have stocked assets.

It's got to be either one or the other.  Unless the Leafs are just mediocre, which I suppose will be viewed as "really bad".  The problem is, especially with the draft strategy, you need a bit of time and distance to appreciate picks made outside the first round.  You can see that from people tying to evaluate Hunter's draft record.  Outside of the first round picks (and Dermott in round 2), we haven't seen any breakthroughs on the players that Hunter decided on.  Does that mean he did a piss poor job in drafting?  For now it appears that way, but  maybe a few of the players picked later make contributions next season or the year after and we look back and realize Hunter actually did a fairly good job.  The same will apply to Dubas.  People will want to see changes right away, but often times it doesn't work that fast. 

I guess the immediate changes he could make to improve the team for next season is the subtraction of guys like Martin, Komarov, Polak and the Leafs promote from within to give some speedy Marlies a shot.  It'll be interesting to see if he pulls off any signing or trades for players we might not expect who are currently undervalued by the NHL.

The market is going to want to see results fast.  This team had 105 points this season, but lost in round 1.  That's not going to cut it for this upcoming season.  If the team doesn't progress past round 1 again, it'll be viewed as a huge failure and the stories will begin that Dubas didn't do enough to improve the Leafs.  Man he's got a tough job.

The big question is, how are they going to replace JVR's 40 goals? Not to mention Bozak.

It's a matter of scoring more by committee.  Instead of one player getting 36 goals (JVR), let's say Matthews and Nylander each get more PP time and they score 7-8 goals each more than they would have otherwise. 

Matthews +8
Nylander +7
--------------
15 extra goals

Then you hope that guys like Johnsson and Kapanen can get 10-15 each?
Johnsson + 13
Kapanen + 12
------------------
25 extra goals

Martin and Komarov only combined for 10 goals on the season, replace them with guys that might score 8-10 each, and you have an additional 16-20 goals.

The math can add up with better players on each line.

AM probably scores more by virtue of being healthy and on top PP. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit close to 50.

Team single season record for goals is 54 by Rick Vaive, I want to see Matthews crush that.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I honestly think the whole thing with Dubas is either going to go really well or else really badly. It's a real trial by fire for him. He's either going to sink or swim. We'll see. I am cautiously optimistic personally. His stat knowledge is impressive. But there is something to be said for Lou's years of experience running a team. Things like trades and negotiations worry me somewhat with Dubas. We'll see. I was not happy with what Lou did at the end of this season. He should have stocked assets.

It's got to be either one or the other.  Unless the Leafs are just mediocre, which I suppose will be viewed as "really bad".  The problem is, especially with the draft strategy, you need a bit of time and distance to appreciate picks made outside the first round.  You can see that from people tying to evaluate Hunter's draft record.  Outside of the first round picks (and Dermott in round 2), we haven't seen any breakthroughs on the players that Hunter decided on.  Does that mean he did a piss poor job in drafting?  For now it appears that way, but  maybe a few of the players picked later make contributions next season or the year after and we look back and realize Hunter actually did a fairly good job.  The same will apply to Dubas.  People will want to see changes right away, but often times it doesn't work that fast. 

I guess the immediate changes he could make to improve the team for next season is the subtraction of guys like Martin, Komarov, Polak and the Leafs promote from within to give some speedy Marlies a shot.  It'll be interesting to see if he pulls off any signing or trades for players we might not expect who are currently undervalued by the NHL.

The market is going to want to see results fast.  This team had 105 points this season, but lost in round 1.  That's not going to cut it for this upcoming season.  If the team doesn't progress past round 1 again, it'll be viewed as a huge failure and the stories will begin that Dubas didn't do enough to improve the Leafs.  Man he's got a tough job.

The big question is, how are they going to replace JVR's 40 goals? Not to mention Bozak.

It's a matter of scoring more by committee.  Instead of one player getting 36 goals (JVR), let's say Matthews and Nylander each get more PP time and they score 7-8 goals each more than they would have otherwise. 

Matthews +8
Nylander +7
--------------
15 extra goals

Then you hope that guys like Johnsson and Kapanen can get 10-15 each?
Johnsson + 13
Kapanen + 12
------------------
25 extra goals

Martin and Komarov only combined for 10 goals on the season, replace them with guys that might score 8-10 each, and you have an additional 16-20 goals.

The math can add up with better players on each line.

I'm not so sure they need to replace all of JVR's goals. A 20-goal scorer is just fine if it's someone who is less of a defensive liability.

 

[herman]

AM probably scores more by virtue of being healthy and on top PP. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit close to 50.

I don't think this can be understated.

Matthews had 40 goals in 82 games last year. 4 in the first game, his last one an empty netter.

This season, Matthews had 34 goals in 62 games, broken up through 3 separate stints on IR, and also getting limited PP time due to them sputtering. Despite all that, he was on a goal scoring tear with improved offensive rates and quite a bit better at limiting chances against. The only thing that really went down was how often he was shooting as he deliberately became more selective.

5v5 Goals per 60 minutes
2016-17: 1.5 (29 G in 1160 min)
2017-18: 1.69 (23 G in 923 min)

If Matthews had this season's scoring pace with the same GP/TOI as last season, he'd have 32-33 G at 5v5 alone; if he also upped the shot count, he'd verge on 40 G without even considering the increase to PP time he's getting next season.

 

[herman]

It's a matter of scoring more by committee.  Instead of one player getting 36 goals (JVR), let's say Matthews and Nylander each get more PP time and they score 7-8 goals each more than they would have otherwise. 

Matthews +8
Nylander +7
--------------
15 extra goals

Then you hope that guys like Johnsson and Kapanen can get 10-15 each?
Johnsson + 13
Kapanen + 12
------------------
25 extra goals

Martin and Komarov only combined for 10 goals on the season, replace them with guys that might score 8-10 each, and you have an additional 16-20 goals.

The math can add up with better players on each line.

Full seasons of Johnsson and Kapanen instead of Martin and Komarov will definitely tip the scales in favour of the Leafs making up the loss of JvR. Heck, Hyman and Brown are scoring 10-15 in their roles with the Leafs, and Johnsson and Kapanen are both better at scoring.

 

[Zee]

This interview was noteworthy to me because in it he talked a little about the Dubas-to-Colorado situation. Shanny, completely unprompted in any way, said Dubas wasn't very pleased that he was blocked from going there at first but was still completely professional about it.

Dubas obliquely mentioned the same in his opening presser (or one of the follow up interviews that first day).

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/05/12/kyle-dubas-on-mike-babcock-the-stuff-he-gets-from-our-research-and-development-people-ive-never-seen-a-coach-go-through-it-as-in-depth-and-look-for-the-edges-within-that/

You have to [sic] potential ? if not the opportunity ? to take the job in Colorado, and your President stands in the way of that. Did it piss you off?

Dubas: I think in the short term, you have an opportunity, and you have tried to work towards that, but after the initial discussion with Brendan and kind of getting over that, I just said, ?You can look at it and feel sorry for yourself, or you can get to work on the season ahead with the Maple Leafs.? I think that?s really where my relationship with Lou was a big benefit, in leaning on Lou during that and leaning on Lou during the year to help improve myself and thus help improve the hockey club.

After reading a bunch of stories, seeing the fallout from Shanahan's decision in choosing Dubas, I just have to say that Shanahan has some huge brass balls.  He blocked Colorado from poaching Dubas last year so he could hand over the organization to him this season.  He's put a ton of faith in this kid.  If it works out, I'll be the first guy to go and worship at the statue of Brendan Shanahan.  If the Leafs become a Cup champion, and a perennial contender from all this, he (Shanahan) will be spoken about in Leafs circles the same way as Conn Smythe.

If Matt Martin plays one shift of one playoff game in a Stanley Cup winning year he would be a God in Toronto. To play any role what's so ever when this team's win your royalty forever.

That's a bit of a stretch.  If a player plays 1 game in the playoffs and does nothing but get scratched the rest of the way the fanbase isn't going to fawn over him.  I have to believe we're smarter than that. 

But Shanahan, the guy that finally fulfilled the promises that so many before him failed to deliver?  Can we even count how many regimes have tried and failed before Shanahan?  The closest was Fletcher in the early 90s with Gilmour/Clark, and then again the early 2000s under Pat Quinn.  IF the "Shanaplan" can deliver a Stanley Cup, he'll be a Toronto legend for all time.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/dcmahiban/status/999321253642162176

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/dcmahiban/status/999321253642162176

One Hunter pick gone.

 

[sickbeast]

I still think it's going to be hard to not only replace JVR and Bozak's goals but also do better as a team, because this season they clearly weren't quite good enough. We will see. What you guys are saying makes sense but a lot has to go right for it to happen. It will be interesting to see how Dubas uses the extra cap space he has for the upcoming season. He will probably do a very nice job.

 

[Kin]

Pridham's been promoted to AGM per Lebrun.