Leafs 2019/2020 Schedule in 10 game chunks
- Thread starter Zee
- Start date
herman
Well-known member
Babcock
1-5: 5 pts | 5 Points per segment
6-10: 7 pts | 6
11-15: 5 pts | 5.66
16-20: 5 pts | 5.5
21-23. 0 pts | 4.78 points per segment (pro-rated)
Babcock fired after game 23
Keefe starting game 24
24-28: 8 pts | 8 pts per segment
29-33: 4 pts | 6 pts per segment
34-38: 2 pts so far
Overall: 5.14/5.29/5.43 pts per segment if we lose/OTL/win vs Buffalo next game. The Leafs have a good chance to string together a good block of points going into the new year.
1-5: 5 pts | 5 Points per segment
6-10: 7 pts | 6
11-15: 5 pts | 5.66
16-20: 5 pts | 5.5
21-23. 0 pts | 4.78 points per segment (pro-rated)
Babcock fired after game 23
Keefe starting game 24
24-28: 8 pts | 8 pts per segment
29-33: 4 pts | 6 pts per segment
34-38: 2 pts so far
Overall: 5.14/5.29/5.43 pts per segment if we lose/OTL/win vs Buffalo next game. The Leafs have a good chance to string together a good block of points going into the new year.
groundskeeper willie
New member
Am I doing my math right when I say under Keefe the Leafs are on a 117 point pace?Bender said:6 of 7 feels very nice indeed. I think we have to remember this pace won't last forever but still, happy to be out of the doldrums.Zee said:
Prancing through fields of green. La la la la la la-la
Zee
Active member
Crake said:Am I doing my math right when I say under Keefe the Leafs are on a 117 point pace?Bender said:6 of 7 feels very nice indeed. I think we have to remember this pace won't last forever but still, happy to be out of the doldrums.Zee said:
Prancing through fields of green. La la la la la la-la
That's correct. 10-4 record is 117 point pace over 82. Unsustainable but enjoy it. Lol
Taking the previous games under Babs into account I think we're on a 105 or 106 pt pace or some such.Zee said:Crake said:Am I doing my math right when I say under Keefe the Leafs are on a 117 point pace?Bender said:6 of 7 feels very nice indeed. I think we have to remember this pace won't last forever but still, happy to be out of the doldrums.Zee said:
Prancing through fields of green. La la la la la la-la
That's correct. 10-4 record is 117 point pace over 82. Unsustainable but enjoy it. Lol
Guilt Trip
Active member
Washington and the Islanders are currently running 700+ but I think they won't last either. If the Leafs go at least 600 they'll get to 96pts.Zee said:Crake said:Am I doing my math right when I say under Keefe the Leafs are on a 117 point pace?Bender said:6 of 7 feels very nice indeed. I think we have to remember this pace won't last forever but still, happy to be out of the doldrums.Zee said:
Prancing through fields of green. La la la la la la-la
That's correct. 10-4 record is 117 point pace over 82. Unsustainable but enjoy it. Lol
Guilt Trip
Active member
Don't agree. Every team but the Rangers and Wings were ahead of us in the standings when we played them so that's only 3 out of 14 games and 10 of those were on the road since Keefe took over a month ago.herman said:
Guilt Trip said:
https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1208808456439894016
Standings don't exactly represent the quality of a team, at least at this point in the season.
Guilt Trip
Active member
Really, but xGF% does? Maybe I just don't understand this expected stuff but please explain the importance of that stat when Col who was ranked 15th yet in actual goals scored per game they're 2nd?CarltonTheBear said:
herman
Well-known member
The facts are these: the standings are the results of the games, but not true indicators of team capability -- i.e. they are descriptive of the combination of capability, puck luck on any given day, and the whims of refereeing that has a mandate to appear fair on a simplistic number-of-calls-made level.
xG%, and shots-for% in general have so many more events in their sample, relative to counting goals at the end of games, that much of the puck luck and refereeing whims are smeared out, sort of like how a basketball game rarely hinges off of one particular call or one particular point scored (until there is no time left). These are predictive indicators of a team's capability. The team that shoots from dangerous areas of the ice and shoots more often from those spots than the other team is likelier to score goals and thus more likely to win games.
Measuring our schedule against the standings therefore, provides a false indicator of the competition the Leafs have faced, not only because of the luck factor in our opponents results, but the luck and schedule and injury difficulties the Leafs endured earlier in the season as well.
The Leafs were always going to do better in December than October just based on the schedule compression early on, regardless of the coaching situation. Some of it now is Keefe who has focused on loosening up the team and helping them play a process that fits their style. In a game with such false parity, a happy slightly crappy team pulling together has an edge over a disgruntled above-average team whose oars aren't synchronized.
xG%, and shots-for% in general have so many more events in their sample, relative to counting goals at the end of games, that much of the puck luck and refereeing whims are smeared out, sort of like how a basketball game rarely hinges off of one particular call or one particular point scored (until there is no time left). These are predictive indicators of a team's capability. The team that shoots from dangerous areas of the ice and shoots more often from those spots than the other team is likelier to score goals and thus more likely to win games.
Measuring our schedule against the standings therefore, provides a false indicator of the competition the Leafs have faced, not only because of the luck factor in our opponents results, but the luck and schedule and injury difficulties the Leafs endured earlier in the season as well.
The Leafs were always going to do better in December than October just based on the schedule compression early on, regardless of the coaching situation. Some of it now is Keefe who has focused on loosening up the team and helping them play a process that fits their style. In a game with such false parity, a happy slightly crappy team pulling together has an edge over a disgruntled above-average team whose oars aren't synchronized.
Guilt Trip said:
I mean expectation and reality don't always line up. Colorado ranks 19th in CF%, 11th in shot attempts per 60, 16th in unblocked shot attempts per 60, and 19th in high danger shot attempts per 60. Their hockeyviz heat map shot chart isn't particularly impressive. As a team based on how, when, and where they get their shots off at 5-on-5 they probably shouldn't be scoring as many goals as they do.
