Leafs Defence Discussion: The Rietsev Duo
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Coco-puffs
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Nik the Trik said:Coco-puffs said:If Rietsev were to see more minutes with Matthews, I bet their numbers start to look Gardrick good
This might be the time to note that the issue here really isn't Rielly/Zaitsev vs. other guys on the Leafs.
Well... and usage, as the data I just added to my post presents.
1. Gardrick start ALOT more in the Offensive zone. Better than 50% Ozone starts except with Smith.
2. Smith starts a TON in his own zone, quite often with Hunlack. No wonder his CF% is shit. Considering his GA/60 is so low, I'd say he's doing a decent job in his role. I'm not saying I wouldn't like improvement- but I don't think Holland was the answer especially if he's leaning on his 4th line to start in the defensive zone a ton.
3. Matthews and Bozak lines get much more favourable Ozone starts. Matthews in particular gets Hunlack alot more often in the defensive zone than other areas, and yet he still pulls their CF% up to a respectable level.
4. I think the Kadri-Rielly-Zaitsev group is doing a heck of a job being our group going up against the oppositions best- starting in the defensive zone quite a bit too. Some luck would be nice.
Anyways, I think Rielly-Zaitsev has been better than ok after looking at this. Not great, but probably good. Until its "great", I won't call them a top pairing I'm comfortable with long term.
Boston Leaf
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I liked the old days when they didn't publish all of those stats. Makes my head spin trying to read and understand..I liked the old days when we watched with our eyes how players were doing.. I guess I hate change
Kin
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Coco-puffs said:
You know, I bet you and I could have a heck of a discussion about whether or not possession metrics can really be used as the sole measurement of a player's offensive/defensive contributions or whether or not we've really arrived at a way to judge who's going up against the "best" opposition(or for that matter how effective line matching is at getting the desired matchups) but quite frankly right now we're back at the proper choice of adjectives so I'm happy enough as is.
bustaheims
Active member
Coco-puffs said:
Just a couple things on this point:
1. If Smith/the 4th line were good defensively, it wouldn't matter that they started in their own zone so much. Good defensive players/units are able to have positive/neutral CF% regardless. The current 4th line's CF% are bad because they're not effective at gaining possession before the opposition has opportunities put the puck on net. They're not suppressing shots.
2. GA/60 is much more of a measurement of the quality of goaltending they're playing in front of, and the calibre of opposition players they're playing against. As they're largely getting 4th line opponents, and Andersen has mostly been very good in net, they should have a low GA/60. So, at best, you can say they're adequate.
Coco-puffs
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bustaheims said:
CF% measures the difference between shot attempts for vs shot attempts against. It is not a "defense" specific stat. I'm pretty sure Ben Smith doesn't suck defensively, he sucks offensively. Hence, his CF/60, SCF/60, xGF/60 are among the worst on the team.
You know what he's among the best on the team at:
Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes (8.2). Only Matt Martin and Connor Carrick have lower rates. Connor Carrick's usage is much more favourable.
Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (2.48). Only Martin, Sosh, and Carrick have lower rates.
Those stats don't depend on your goalie. Yes, they do depend on your opposition and playing against other 4th liners probably helps. Starting in your own zone a ton certainly doesn't. He's also better than 51% in SCF% and xGF%.
Also, I didn't know there was a huge difference in the meaning of decent vs adequate. And no, I don't want to get into that discussion.
Coco-puffs said:
You touch on this but it's not exactly unusual for 4th liners to have good stats in those categories. They play low-event hockey against other 4th liners. Their role is basically to break even against other bad players so the top-9 players can get a bit of a rest.
Guys like Steckel, Sill, Brown, Orr, McLaren, Clune, Bodie, and Smithson have ALL been among the Leafs leaders in that stat in the past few years. Same goes for SCA/60 basically. And they all actually had better results there than Smith does now. So it's not really that impressive.
bustaheims
Active member
Coco-puffs said:
Even with their offensive deficiencies, if he and his linemates were good at suppressing shots and shot attempts, their CF% would be much closer to or above 50%. It doesn't take much offensive skill to throw the puck towards the net. All it really takes is being able to take possession of the puck and get it into the other team's zone. Heck, even just muddling things up in the neutral zone more would improve his CF% from where it is now, as he and his linemates would be allowing less shot attempts at the Leafs' net.
The numbers show that when he's on the ice, the other team has the puck much more than the Leafs do - which is generally interpreted as not being particularly good defensively.
Redleaf
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Nik the Trik said:
:
You know you can refrain from joining the conversation if it bothers you so much? No ones forcing you to punch your keyboard keys. But we all know that your M.O. is to search for posts you think you can rip apart and laden with as much pomposity as humanly possible.
Zee
Active member
I didn't know what to expect from Zaitsev coming into the season but he's been a pleasant surprise for me. He's been able to step in and look like a really good dman on most nights. My expectations for Rielly were a bit too high. Coming off the World Cup where he was logging important minutes with Team NA, I thought he'd suddenly turn into this elite puck moving dman that drives offensive play. He's shown flashes, but honestly I've been more impressed with Gardiner so far this year in terms of offensive situations. Defensively I think they still have a ways to go. The Leafs still need that true #1 shutdown guy that you can rely on for 28-30 min a game.
Kin
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Bullfrog said:
That seems like a bit of an aberration though. Doughty was at 28 or over the last two full seasons(and you wonder if as seasons go on and injuries pile up if ATOI doesn't trend upwards for guys like him) and was pretty frequently at or above 30. Having someone you can play that frequently doesn't mean you necessarily will. It might be splitting hairs but Doughty's career usaqe definitely suggests he can be relied on for 30 minutes in a given night if need be.
Zee
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
This is what I meant. While the average might not be 28 min/game, having a guy that you can push like that from time to time is golden. Rielly isn't there yet, if he ever will be. When playoffs roll around, you tend to play the top 4 way more minutes, and the top guy will be up around 28+ on many games.
bustaheims
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Bullfrog said:
