Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I was thinking of the defense this morning and was tinkering around. I came up with a potential combo, taking into account the move yesterday and what I would consider an upgrade if the Leafs decide to go this route.

Gardiner - Phaneuf
Rielly - Boyle
Holzer - Polak
MacWilliam - Granberg

Going with eight guys, four stay at home and four offensive minded guys. RH/ LH sorted with skating ability, although Holzer might be the least effective in that regard.

MacWilliam - Polak, if it worked, could be a nasty combination for any team that likes to crash the crease. If you put Granberg lower in the line-up, you could shelter him a bit until he feels more comfortable with the NHL game.

I thought about Percy, Finn and Brennan, but decided that the latter two need more seasoning, especially Finn in the pro game. Brennan, while I like him a lot, would be more of a priority had we not been full of that type already. Holzer has improved his game last time I checked, so maybe it's time we gave him a bit more responsibility. If it doesn't work out, we could trade him or simply go in another direction.

 

[ZBBM]

The thing is Nonis just went out and paid a high price to get a nasty dman. What does that say about what he thinks of MacWilliam?

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

The thing is Nonis just went out and paid a high price to get a nasty dman. What does that say about what he thinks of MacWilliam?

Personally, I feel it says more about how they feel about Gunnarsson. Gardiner and Riley simply passed him on the depth chart. Add in the hip and desire to change to more physicality, right handed shot, improve the PK and voila. I believe Polak will be the better bottom pairing guy for our situation.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I know you can't bank on anything, but it could get interesting if Nylander pushes and makes the club...

JvR - Bozak - Kessel
Nylander - Kadri - Lupul

Looks dangerous to me. Our already good power play overall would see a jump in production I would think. The only question I would have is Nylander's defensive game in the NHL. While I'm sure his skill would make up for a bit of his inexperience, he'd likely need a year with the Marlies to get some instruction first.

But, it could happen!

 

[Kin]

I may have written something to this effect before and I'd be the first to admit that I don't watch any Marlies games but I really do take it as a discouraging sign that so many people seem to think that Percy won't be on the big club next year.

He's 21. As far as I can tell, most 1st round picks on the blueline get quite a bit of NHL time as 21 year olds. I suppose it's not overly surprising if he's a disappointment like most of Burke's draft work but I have to think he's at least a serious candidate for one of the vacancies.

 

[wnc096]

I know you can't bank on anything, but it could get interesting if Nylander pushes and makes the club...

JvR - Bozak - Kessel
Nylander - Kadri - Lupul

Looks dangerous to me. Our already good power play overall would see a jump in production I would think. The only question I would have is Nylander's defensive game in the NHL. While I'm sure his skill would make up for a bit of his inexperience, he'd likely need a year with the Marlies to get some instruction first.

But, it could happen!

Those two lines would a combined minus 100

 

[Bullfrog]

Those two lines would a combined minus 100

But with 400 points on the power play. Am I right??

 

[bustaheims]

Those two lines would a combined minus 100

They'd score way too many goals to be -100. Way too many.

 

[bustaheims]

I may have written something to this effect before and I'd be the first to admit that I don't watch any Marlies games but I really do take it as a discouraging sign that so many people seem to think that Percy won't be on the big club next year.

He's 21. As far as I can tell, most 1st round picks on the blueline get quite a bit of NHL time as 21 year olds. I suppose it's not overly surprising if he's a disappointment like most of Burke's draft work but I have to think he's at least a serious candidate for one of the vacancies.

I think Percy's largely being overlooked because he didn't put up bit point totals last season, but, if there's a spot available on the blue line, he'd definitely be in consideration. As for defencemen his age getting NHL time . . . maybe the higher touted guys, but, Percy just finished his first professional season. It's not at all unusual for players like him to take 2 or 3 seasons in the minors before getting more than a cup of coffee in the NHL.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I think Percy's largely being overlooked because he didn't put up bit point totals last season, but, if there's a spot available on the blue line, he'd definitely be in consideration. As for defencemen his age getting NHL time . . . maybe the higher touted guys, but, Percy just finished his first professional season. It's not at all unusual for players like him to take 2 or 3 seasons in the minors before getting more than a cup of coffee in the NHL.

Yeah, he'll definitely have consideration at camp, but it ultimately lies with Stuart Percy. He could come in and make them put him on the team, I'd love to see that, but I don't think he's going to supplant Rielly or Gardiner.

 

[rdowdall]

I may have written something to this effect before and I'd be the first to admit that I don't watch any Marlies games but I really do take it as a discouraging sign that so many people seem to think that Percy won't be on the big club next year.

He's 21. As far as I can tell, most 1st round picks on the blueline get quite a bit of NHL time as 21 year olds. I suppose it's not overly surprising if he's a disappointment like most of Burke's draft work but I have to think he's at least a serious candidate for one of the vacancies.

He's taking the Jesse Blacker route to the NHL.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I think Percy's largely being overlooked because he didn't put up bit point totals last season

Despite his point totals being quite good for one of the youngest D in the entire league.  These are the players who have put up similar numbers at Percy's age in the AHL for D:

@b1rky

Tyson Barrie, Brayden McNabb, Adam Clendening, Brandon Gormley, & Nathan Beaulieu. All fairly touted young defensemen.

 

[bustaheims]

Despite his point totals being quite good for one of the youngest D in the entire league.  These are the players who have put up similar numbers at Percy's age in the AHL for D:

@b1rky

Tyson Barrie, Brayden McNabb, Adam Clendening, Brandon Gormley, & Nathan Beaulieu. All fairly touted young defensemen.

Yeah, but they weren't the kind of numbers that catch most people's eyes, you know? They were more than respectable for an AHL rookie, absolutely, but not the kind that get you a ton of attention. And, really, I wouldn't be all that concerned if he doesn't crack the lineup this year. A significant portion of 2nd and 3rd pairing types don't get any serious NHL ice time until they're 23 or 24.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Here is what I was actually expecting before Gunnarsson got traded so I swapped him out for Polak:

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER

FORWARDS

James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($8.000m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.900m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($3.000m)
Leo Komarov ($2.000m) / Peter Holland ($1.200m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Troy Bodie ($0.700m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Carter Ashton ($0.851m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Trevor Smith ($0.700m) 
​

DEFENSEMEN

Jake Gardiner ($2.900m)  / Dion Phaneuf ($7.000m)
Morgan Rielly ($0.894m) / Roman Polak ($2.750m)
Tim Gleason ($4.000m) / Cody Franson ($3.000m)
Paul Ranger ($1.000m)​

 

GOALTENDERS

Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.600m)
​

BUYOUTS
Mike Komisarek ($0.000m)
Mikhail Grabovski ($0.000m)

RETAINED SALARIES (0.29% of upper limit)
Carl Gunnarsson ($0.200m?6.35%)

------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)

SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,744,667; BONUSES: $850,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $2,255,333

What I was hoping would be:

Buyout Gleason

WPG
With the abundance of offensive dmen in Toronto combined with the rumblings surrounding E Kane and Byfuglien something like - Gardiner, Holland, Franson and Ashton for Kane and big Buff.

NYI
Since Lupul likes NY so much, move Lupul to NYI for Boyle's rights, Martin and 2nd round pick 2016.

This would re-unite the top Marlie d pairing on the 3rd pairing for the Leafs which makes sense to me:

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER

FORWARDS

James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($8.000m)
Evander Kane ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.900m) / Dustin Byfuglien ($5.200m)
Leo Komarov ($2.000m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Matt Martin ($1.000m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Troy Bodie ($0.600m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Trevor Smith ($0.600m)​

DEFENSEMEN

Dion Phaneuf ($7.000m) / Dan Boyle ($5.000m)
Morgan Rielly ($0.894m) / Roman Polak ($2.750m)
T.J. Brennan ($1.200m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.788m)
Clayton Stoner ($1.200m)​

GOALTENDERS

Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.600m)​

BUYOUTS
Mike Komisarek ($0.000m)
Mikhail Grabovski ($0.000m)
Tim Gleason ($0.833m)

RETAINED SALARIES (0.29% of upper limit)
Carl Gunnarsson ($0.200m?6.35%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)

SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,615,000; BONUSES: $850,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $385,000

***************************************************************
What makes me uncomfortable as a fan is hearing that a few of the players I expected to be on this year's roster are possibly going to be gone:
Kulemin, Komarov, McClement, Bodie and Riemer....

...and these are the guys with a chance to stay:
Bolland, Franson, Gleason and Raymond.

For Dan Boyle I would see if he would sign for 3 years for a $4.5 AAV ($6.0, $4.5, $3.0) rather than 2 years at $5.0 AAV with full intentions to buy him out the 3rd year (summer of 2016) for 2/3rd remaining spread over 2 years (ie: $1.0 MIL cap hit 16/17, 17/18) which won't hurt with the salary cap growing so much but this season would give a little bit more cap space.

 

[armche123]

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER

FORWARDS

James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($8.000m)
Evander Kane ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.900m) / Dustin Byfuglien ($5.200m)
Leo Komarov ($2.000m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Matt Martin ($1.000m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Troy Bodie ($0.600m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Trevor Smith ($0.600m)​

DEFENSEMEN

Dion Phaneuf ($7.000m) / Dan Boyle ($5.000m)
Morgan Rielly ($0.894m) / Roman Polak ($2.750m)
T.J. Brennan ($1.200m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.788m)
Clayton Stoner ($1.200m)​

GOALTENDERS

Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.600m)​

BUYOUTS
Mike Komisarek ($0.000m)
Mikhail Grabovski ($0.000m)
Tim Gleason ($0.833m)

RETAINED SALARIES (0.29% of upper limit)
Carl Gunnarsson ($0.200m—6.35%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)

SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,615,000; BONUSES: $850,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $385,000

If that ever happened, I would do everything in my power to trade Kadri for Simmonds... Wait... Does Kulemin play C?

 

[Britishbulldog]

If that ever happened, I would do everything in my power to trade Kadri for Simmonds... Wait... Does Kulemin play C?

Actually both Kulemin and Komarov are better faceoff artists then Bolland, Kadri or Holland.

 

[bustaheims]

Actually both Kulemin and Komarov are better faceoff artists then Bolland, Kadri or Holland.

Sample size. Komarov hasn't taken anywhere near enough face-offs in the NHL to be compared with anyone. The difference between Kulemin and Bolland/Kadri/Holland is marginal - and he hasn't taken a full season's worth of face-offs in total for his career.

 

[nutman]

Here is what I was actually expecting before Gunnarsson got traded so I swapped him out for Polak:

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER

FORWARDS

James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($8.000m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.900m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($3.000m)
Leo Komarov ($2.000m) / Peter Holland ($1.200m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Troy Bodie ($0.700m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Carter Ashton ($0.851m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Trevor Smith ($0.700m) 
​

DEFENSEMEN

Jake Gardiner ($2.900m)  / Dion Phaneuf ($7.000m)
Morgan Rielly ($0.894m) / Roman Polak ($2.750m)
Tim Gleason ($4.000m) / Cody Franson ($3.000m)
Paul Ranger ($1.000m)​

 

GOALTENDERS

Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.600m)
​

BUYOUTS
Mike Komisarek ($0.000m)
Mikhail Grabovski ($0.000m)

RETAINED SALARIES (0.29% of upper limit)
Carl Gunnarsson ($0.200m?6.35%)

------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)

SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,744,667; BONUSES: $850,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $2,255,333

What I was hoping would be:

Buyout Gleason

WPG
With the abundance of offensive dmen in Toronto combined with the rumblings surrounding E Kane and Byfuglien something like - Gardiner, Holland, Franson and Ashton for Kane and big Buff.

NYI
Since Lupul likes NY so much, move Lupul to NYI for Boyle's rights, Martin and 2nd round pick 2016.

This would re-unite the top Marlie d pairing on the 3rd pairing for the Leafs which makes sense to me:

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER

FORWARDS

James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($8.000m)
Evander Kane ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.900m) / Dustin Byfuglien ($5.200m)
Leo Komarov ($2.000m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Matt Martin ($1.000m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Troy Bodie ($0.600m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Trevor Smith ($0.600m)​

DEFENSEMEN

Dion Phaneuf ($7.000m) / Dan Boyle ($5.000m)
Morgan Rielly ($0.894m) / Roman Polak ($2.750m)
T.J. Brennan ($1.200m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.788m)
Clayton Stoner ($1.200m)​

GOALTENDERS

Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.600m)​

BUYOUTS
Mike Komisarek ($0.000m)
Mikhail Grabovski ($0.000m)
Tim Gleason ($0.833m)

RETAINED SALARIES (0.29% of upper limit)
Carl Gunnarsson ($0.200m?6.35%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)

SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,615,000; BONUSES: $850,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $385,000

***************************************************************
What makes me uncomfortable as a fan is hearing that a few of the players I expected to be on this year's roster are possibly going to be gone:
Kulemin, Komarov, McClement, Bodie and Riemer....

...and these are the guys with a chance to stay:
Bolland, Franson, Gleason and Raymond.

For Dan Boyle I would see if he would sign for 3 years for a $4.5 AAV ($6.0, $4.5, $3.0) rather than 2 years at $5.0 AAV with full intentions to buy him out the 3rd year (summer of 2016) for 2/3rd remaining spread over 2 years (ie: $1.0 MIL cap hit 16/17, 17/18) which won't hurt with the salary cap growing so much but this season would give a little bit more cap space.

If they went with this line Leo Komarov  / Nikolai Kulemin / David Clarkson , and you know who started to earn his money, it could be one heck of a third line.

 

[Kin]

As for defencemen his age getting NHL time . . . maybe the higher touted guys, but, Percy just finished his first professional season. It's not at all unusual for players like him to take 2 or 3 seasons in the minors before getting more than a cup of coffee in the NHL.

I went back about 10 years just looking at the defensemen who went on to legitimate NHL careers and were drafted between 20-30 and almost all of them were more or less full-time NHLers at 21. Mike Green, Matti Niskanen, John Carlson, Brent Burns, Michael Del Zotto, Andrej Meszaros and Jeff Schultz are all guys I found who fit that mold with only Mark Stuart really being an example of someone who found his way into the league later.

 

[bustaheims]

I went back about 10 years just looking at the defensemen who went on to legitimate NHL careers and were drafted between 20-30 and almost all of them were more or less full-time NHLers at 21. Mike Green, Matti Niskanen, John Carlson, Brent Burns, Michael Del Zotto, Andrej Meszaros and Jeff Schultz are all guys I found who fit that mold with only Mark Stuart really being an example of someone who found his way into the league later.

Yeah. I went through a lot of 2nd and 3rd pairing types, and it seemed like 23 was the typical age where they really started to get significant ice time. Most the guys who list there are much higher end guys than Percy was ever expected to become.