Official Armchair GM Thread 2015-2016

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

It's just Button's list, but according to him here's your current top 5 for the 2016 draft:

I was curious to see how much Chychrun's draft stock would drop after not getting a chance to play at the World Juniors. Kinda sucks for him, as Canada probably should have taken him (especially after seeing how unimpressive their blueline was). I still think that he goes top-5 though. With the way that the lottery works I'll be pretty happy drafting anywhere in the top-6. Obviously the higher the better but there's some good consolation prizes there in either Chychrun or Nylander.

They definitely should have taken him.

I wonder how many people will form opinions on him based on the whole "he couldn't make that Canadian defence?" train of thought and his stock might drop a little more.

He could end up being the steal of the draft.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

I guess the answer to this depends on who the teams holding the picks are but are we likely to trade up for a second top 10 pick or going from last year are we more likely looking at accumulating lots of lower picks?

 

[bustaheims]

I was curious to see how much Chychrun's draft stock would drop after not getting a chance to play at the World Juniors. Kinda sucks for him, as Canada probably should have taken him (especially after seeing how unimpressive their blueline was). I still think that he goes top-5 though. With the way that the lottery works I'll be pretty happy drafting anywhere in the top-6. Obviously the higher the better but there's some good consolation prizes there in either Chychrun or Nylander.

I think, by the time the draft rolls around, he'll have moved back up in the rankings. At this point in the year, the WJC heavily influences things, but, as the season progresses and the junior leagues and NCAA move through their playoffs, it becomes less of a defining factor. If Chychrun has a good playoff run, he'll jump right back into the top 3.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I guess the answer to this depends on who the teams holding the picks are but are we likely to trade up for a second top 10 pick or going from last year are we more likely looking at accumulating lots of lower picks?

If I was a betting man it'd definitely be the latter.

 

[Kin]

I guess the answer to this depends on who the teams holding the picks are but are we likely to trade up for a second top 10 pick or going from last year are we more likely looking at accumulating lots of lower picks?

Trading for top 10 picks is hard. Any team is going to be more likely to do something in their control, trade down, than something they can't control like trading up.

 

[bustaheims]

Trading for top 10 picks is hard. Any team is going to be more likely to do something in their control, trade down, than something they can't control like trading up.

Especially if we're talking pick for pick deals. The last time a top 10 pick moved under those circumstances was in 2008, when the Islanders did it twice, but remained in the top 10. In 2007, the Blue traded out of the top 10, but landed the 12th overall pick in the deal. So, really, unless the Leafs can add another top 15 pick before the draft (which feels unlikely, at best), there's no chance a pick for pick trade happens to get another top 10 pick. There's a remote chance of a player for pick move - those happen marginally more frequently - but, the only player with potential to be moved that might garner one is JvR.

 

[Kin]

Especially if we're talking pick for pick deals. The last time a top 10 pick moved under those circumstances was in 2008, when the Islanders did it twice, but remained in the top 10. In 2007, the Blue traded out of the top 10, but landed the 12th overall pick in the deal. So, really, unless the Leafs can add another top 15 pick before the draft (which feels unlikely, at best), there's no chance a pick for pick trade happens to get another top 10 pick. There's a remote chance of a player for pick move - those happen marginally more frequently - but, the only player with potential to be moved that might garner one is JvR.

Exactly. I know I sound like a broken record on this but when fans propose trades they really do need to put themselves in the shoes of the other team's GM and ask if they'd make the deal. If I had a top 10 pick the price for me trading out of the top 10 would have to be the result of an offer that I'd be a fool to turn down, which almost by definition makes it prohibitively expensive.

Tossing in mid-2nd and 3rd round picks wouldn't do it as those can be acquired elsewhere. Like you say, it'd have to be for JVR or, at a push, someone like Gardiner or Kadri.

 

[bustaheims]

Like you say, it'd have to be for JVR or, at a push, someone like Gardiner or Kadri.

Yup. JvR is the only player I see having enough appeal and able to generate enough of a bidding war for a team to be willing to move a top 10 pick straight up for him - and, even then, it's unlikely. I don't think Kadri gets it done right now - though, if he has a really good 2nd half, maybe. There's a couple teams that look like they'll end up with top 10 picks that might be willing to make a move where Gardiner would be the key piece going the other way, but there'd be more pieces in the deal, for sure.

 

[herman]

Like you say, it'd have to be for JVR or, at a push, someone like Gardiner or Kadri.

Yup. JvR is the only player I see having enough appeal and able to generate enough of a bidding war for a team to be willing to move a top 10 pick straight up for him - and, even then, it's unlikely. I don't think Kadri gets it done right now - though, if he has a really good 2nd half, maybe. There's a couple teams that look like they'll end up with top 10 picks that might be willing to make a move where Gardiner would be the key piece going the other way, but there'd be more pieces in the deal, for sure.

I'm thinking depending on where the lottery balls land, Gardiner+ to Edmonton, or JvR to Anaheim/Winnipeg might be good options to pursue.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm thinking depending on where the lottery balls land, Gardiner+ to Edmonton, or JvR to Anaheim/Winnipeg might be good options to pursue.

Edmonton would have to move a fair amount higher in the standings for that. Right now, they're looking at a top 5 pick, likely top 3. If they end up in the 8-10 range, possibly, but as it stands right now? Not a chance.

 

[Kin]

I'm thinking depending on where the lottery balls land, Gardiner+ to Edmonton, or JvR to Anaheim/Winnipeg might be good options to pursue.

Edmonton would have to move a fair amount higher in the standings for that. Right now, they're looking at a top 5 pick, likely top 3. If they end up in the 8-10 range, possibly, but as it stands right now? Not a chance.

I think from a value perspective you might be right but I wonder if Edmonton at the very least would be open to considering a trade out of the top 5/top 3 if Button's list is largely accurate and the top D prospects are more in the 6 to 10 range. If they end up with the #2 or #3 pick they might see a lot of value in auctioning off the right to one of the Finnish forwards and still ending up with Chychrun or Juolevi.

Heck, even if they win the lottery as they no doubt will...isn't there some point where they just can't add another forward?

 

[bustaheims]

Heck, even if they win the lottery as they no doubt will...isn't there some point where they just can't add another forward?

It's Edmonton. You never really know.

 

[herman]

I'm thinking depending on where the lottery balls land, Gardiner+ to Edmonton, or JvR to Anaheim/Winnipeg might be good options to pursue.

Edmonton would have to move a fair amount higher in the standings for that. Right now, they're looking at a top 5 pick, likely top 3. If they end up in the 8-10 range, possibly, but as it stands right now? Not a chance.

I think from a value perspective you might be right but I wonder if Edmonton at the very least would be open to considering a trade out of the top 5/top 3 if Button's list is largely accurate and the top D prospects are more in the 6 to 10 range. If they end up with the #2 or #3 pick they might see a lot of value in auctioning off the right to one of the Finnish forwards and still ending up with Chychrun or Juolevi.

Heck, even if they win the lottery as they no doubt will...isn't there some point where they just can't add another forward?

That's kind of what I was thinking. The top 5 is flooded with forward options that Edm doesn't really need and might be inclined to trade down for.

 

[Kin]

That's kind of what I was thinking. The top 5 is flooded with forward options that Edm doesn't really need and might be inclined to trade down for.

Sure. But in that case the trade is Gardiner and almost certainly the Leafs' 1st round pick to start with. Gardiner isn't the basis of trading into the top five with, say, Pittsburgh's pick(provided the Leafs even get it).

 

[bustaheims]

Sure. But in that case the trade is Gardiner and almost certainly the Leafs' 1st round pick to start with. Gardiner isn't the basis of trading into the top five with, say, Pittsburgh's pick(provided the Leafs even get it).

Which starts to become a pretty poor value deal for the Leafs, who are probably better served moving Gardiner in a separate deal (if they move him at all) than to trade him to move up 2 or 3 spots.

 

[herman]

Sure. But in that case the trade is Gardiner and almost certainly the Leafs' 1st round pick to start with. Gardiner isn't the basis of trading into the top five with, say, Pittsburgh's pick(provided the Leafs even get it).

Which starts to become a pretty poor value deal for the Leafs, who are probably better served moving Gardiner in a separate deal (if they move him at all) than to trade him to move up 2 or 3 spots.

Fair points, all.

 

[Kin]

Which starts to become a pretty poor value deal for the Leafs, who are probably better served moving Gardiner in a separate deal (if they move him at all) than to trade him to move up 2 or 3 spots.

Maybe? If the Leafs are inside the top 6, absolutely it's a dicey proposition. If they're 8th and the Oilers are 5th or something I'd start to consider it.

Of course, I suppose to have an informed decision I'd have to know what teams were offering for Gardiner. I don't have a good sense of his individual value.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Which starts to become a pretty poor value deal for the Leafs, who are probably better served moving Gardiner in a separate deal (if they move him at all) than to trade him to move up 2 or 3 spots.

Maybe? If the Leafs are inside the top 6, absolutely it's a dicey proposition. If they're 8th and the Oilers are 5th or something I'd start to consider it.

Of course, I suppose to have an informed decision I'd have to know what teams were offering for Gardiner. I don't have a good sense of his individual value.

From what I understand, Gardiner is a real analytics darling. So I suppose his value may vary by team, depending on how  much weight they put into his numbers.

 

[Kin]

From what I understand, Gardiner is a real analytics darling. So I suppose his value may vary by team, depending on how  much weight they put into his numbers.

Yeah, that's sort of what I meant. When the Hamonic stuff started being reported some of the reported and rumoured deals sounded crazy to me in terms of how highly it was rating Hamonic. But Hamonic, like Gardiner, is sort of an analytics guy so maybe it was realistic.

But, then again, it's not like anyone actually stepped up and gave the Islanders what they were looking for either. So, like I said, it's tough to get a handle on his value. Any player's value will vary from team to team but typically I'm talking about the three or four teams who are really interested. I still don't know if that is easy to gauge.

 

[Frank E]

The Leafs have a number of RFA's down with the Marlies coming due this year too, so maybe it's interesting to discuss which ones should be re-signed.  According to the list below, they've got Bailey, Percy, Morin, Leivo, Sparks, Carrick, and Harrington.  On the big club they've got Holland, Marincin, Corrado, and of course Mr. Kadri and Mr. Reilly.

I'll suggest that unless Bailey shows something down the stretch, he might be out.  Same with Percy and Carrick.  I think Morin, Leivo, Harrington, and Sparks are still prospects, more or less.

Holland is a serviceable 3rd liner, and Marincin and Corrado would probably get re-signed given there's no one really knocking at the door for those depth defensemen positions.