Oilers @ Leafs - Mar. 29th, 7:00pm - SN, TSN 1050

[Guilt Trip]

I don't see picking apart the goal there.  You've got the top duo in the game + a defenseman who I think is tied for the league lead in goals.  In a 3 on 3 situation they are going to win more than they lose.

Overall we handled EDM just fine over the season series.  Weird that we don't play them again.

3 on 3 with that much talent you're right but not like we don't have any out there. Fine line you want to attack and hopefully get an odd man rush or good chance but in the same breath you want to make sure you don't get caught. We did and this time it cost us. Leafs were the better team again shut down the top line Oilers have f all.

They have been pretty good at shutting down the McDuo..

 

[L K]

Since the 3 game series against Edmonton the Leafs have outshot their opponents

369-295

They have been outscored 35-29 over that stretch

That's a .921 SV% for our opponents to an .881 SV% for the Leafs.

 

[L K]

I don't see picking apart the goal there.  You've got the top duo in the game + a defenseman who I think is tied for the league lead in goals.  In a 3 on 3 situation they are going to win more than they lose.

Overall we handled EDM just fine over the season series.  Weird that we don't play them again.

3 on 3 with that much talent you're right but not like we don't have any out there. Fine line you want to attack and hopefully get an odd man rush or good chance but in the same breath you want to make sure you don't get caught. We did and this time it cost us. Leafs were the better team again shut down the top line Oilers have f all.

They have been pretty good at shutting down the McDuo..

It's pretty crazy.  9GP 3G 7A 10P but honestly they really did do a great job of shutting him down.  He has 53 points in 27 games (1.96 PPG!) when not facing the Leafs.

 

[wnc096]

I don't see picking apart the goal there.  You've got the top duo in the game + a defenseman who I think is tied for the league lead in goals.  In a 3 on 3 situation they are going to win more than they lose.

Overall we handled EDM just fine over the season series.  Weird that we don't play them again.

If you told me we'd get to OT without Mcdavid or Draisaitl scoring after they announced Hutch was starting.  I would have taken it

 

[ZBBM]

I don't see picking apart the goal there.  You've got the top duo in the game + a defenseman who I think is tied for the league lead in goals.  In a 3 on 3 situation they are going to win more than they lose.

Overall we handled EDM just fine over the season series.  Weird that we don't play them again.

3 on 3 with that much talent you're right but not like we don't have any out there. Fine line you want to attack and hopefully get an odd man rush or good chance but in the same breath you want to make sure you don't get caught. We did and this time it cost us. Leafs were the better team again shut down the top line Oilers have f all.

They have been pretty good at shutting down the McDuo..

It's pretty crazy.  9GP 3G 7A 10P but honestly they really did do a great job of shutting him down.  He has 53 points in 27 games (1.96 PPG!) when not facing the Leafs.

In the second  intermission I think they said we are 8th in the league in GA.  Who'd have predicted that?

 

[ZBBM]

Since the 3 game series against Edmonton the Leafs have outshot their opponents

369-295

They have been outscored 35-29 over that stretch

That's a .921 SV% for our opponents to an .881 SV% for the Leafs.

And that's going 0-million on the PP.  There's the points difference right there.

 

[Bender]

Since the 3 game series against Edmonton the Leafs have outshot their opponents

369-295

They have been outscored 35-29 over that stretch

That's a .921 SV% for our opponents to an .881 SV% for the Leafs.

And that's going 0-million on the PP.  There's the points difference right there.

Can't get PDOd forever.

 

[Bender]

Since the 3 game series against Edmonton the Leafs have outshot their opponents

369-295

They have been outscored 35-29 over that stretch

That's a .921 SV% for our opponents to an .881 SV% for the Leafs.

And that's going 0-million on the PP.  There's the points difference right there.

Can't get PDOd forever.

In the last 3 week stretch we are in the basement for PDO. Kind of makes sense now.  Shooting percentage has cooled off and were not getting the saves to at least help us out. Buffalo getting better high danger SV% than us. Our overall SV% is second worst next to Philly over that period. We are outplaying our competition but our mistakes are costing us while its not costing our opponents. Shocking that were .500 in that stretch tbh.

 

[BrownRolo]

The Leafs have been handily outplaying their opponents every night for a while now. I don't remember ever seeing such a consistent effort as a fan. They aren't getting the wins but you can't complain about the play.

 

[bustaheims]

Since the 3 game series against Edmonton the Leafs have outshot their opponents

369-295

They have been outscored 35-29 over that stretch

That's a .921 SV% for our opponents to an .881 SV% for the Leafs.

It's crazy how well the team is playing and not getting results. In all situations (5-on-5, PP, PK, etc.) that time span, the Leafs:

-have the 2nd best possession numbers in the league
-have 60.42% of expected goals, while only actually scoring 45.31%
-62.97% of scoring chances
-63.64% of high danger scoring chances

They've been absolutely dominating the teams they've played against, and should probably have won 8 or 9 of those games, not just 4. I don't think I've ever had less concern about the quality of the team's play during a rough stretch in terms of results.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Since the 3 game series against Edmonton the Leafs have outshot their opponents

369-295

They have been outscored 35-29 over that stretch

That's a .921 SV% for our opponents to an .881 SV% for the Leafs.

It's crazy how well the team is playing and not getting results. In all situations (5-on-5, PP, PK, etc.) that time span, the Leafs:

-have the 2nd best possession numbers in the league
-have 60.42% of expected goals, while only actually scoring 45.31%
-62.97% of scoring chances
-63.64% of high danger scoring chances

They've been absolutely dominating the teams they've played against, and should probably have won 8 or 9 of those games, not just 4. I don't think I've ever had less concern about the quality of the team's play during a rough stretch in terms of results.

And of course earlier in the season when they were dominating and scoring goals at will their possession numbers were pretty mediocre. Lets hope both scoring and possession start to line up as we head into the final stretch.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Freddie is the guy we need healthy..Campbell is not looking like he can stay healthy enough to be the #1.

Is Campbell injury prone or did he just come back too early from his original injury and it just threw the recovery for it completely out of whack? Because those are two very different things, and from the sounds of it it's more likely the latter.

 

[L K]

Freddie is the guy we need healthy..Campbell is not looking like he can stay healthy enough to be the #1.

Is Campbell injury prone or did he just come back too early from his original injury and it just threw the recovery for it completely out of whack? Because those are two very different things, and from the sounds of it it's more likely the latter.

That's far more what I'm leaning toward right now with him.  This seems to be a reaggravation of the same injury that is happening shortly after returning.  That screams more not fully healed rather than injury prone.

We can absolutely have a debate on whether Campbell should be trusted to be the #1 option next year given his lack of experience as the #1 guy but I'm far more concerned about Freddy's play for the last year+ than I am of Campbell.  Campbell when in the net has looked good.  Freddy has been struggling for a season and a half now.

It was nice to see Matthews taking more shots last night but his accuracy and his handling of the puck still seem off. 

 

[bustaheims]

Is Campbell injury prone or did he just come back too early from his original injury and it just threw the recovery for it completely out of whack? Because those are two very different things, and from the sounds of it it's more likely the latter.

His injury history isn't particularly long, but he did have knee surgery in November 2018. It's possible the current issues are related - though, we don't really know quite enough about this season's issues to be able to say for sure one way or another.

 

[bustaheims]

And of course earlier in the season when they were dominating and scoring goals at will their possession numbers were pretty mediocre. Lets hope both scoring and possession start to line up as we head into the final stretch.

That's true, though I wonder if there's some score effects impact their early season possession numbers, as they held the lead for something like 52% of time through the first 15-20 games of the season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

When do we start to question the coaching on the lack of changes to the PP?

One suggestion here: I get why they didn't want to do it right away but I think given his pretty terrific play so far it's time to reward Galchenyuk with PP time. That like pushes Hyman off the 2nd unit, so put Nylander back in the net front position (where he scored a lot of goals from last year) and run:

            Nylander
Galchenyuk-Thornton-Spezza
            Brodie

 

[ZBBM]

The weak link in these units is the D-man.  And there's only one solution for that.

Simmonds
Marner-Tavares-Matthews
Nylander

Hyman
Galchenyuk-Thornton-Matthews
Spezza

That should click at about 75% I figure.  Subtract 50% for shorties and we're stilling netting 25%.  Problem solved.

 

[herman]

I have a PP plan as well:
Nylander
Nylander - Nylander - Nylander
Nylander

 

[Guilt Trip]

Freddie is the guy we need healthy..Campbell is not looking like he can stay healthy enough to be the #1.

Is Campbell injury prone or did he just come back too early from his original injury and it just threw the recovery for it completely out of whack? Because those are two very different things, and from the sounds of it it's more likely the latter.

I don't think he's injury prone, he just has that nagging, appears to be, left knee injury. I don't think he came back early. There was a highlight they showed last night from Sat's game and it looked like he hurt it again. I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't play tomorrow night. I don't think he's getting over this until the off season. I hope he can because we're going to need both guys.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't think he's injury prone, he just has that nagging, appears to be, left knee injury. I don't think he came back early. There was a highlight they showed last night from Sat's game and it looked like he hurt it again. I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't play tomorrow night. I don't think he's getting over this until the off season. I hope he can because we're going to need both guys.

The schedule this season is not very forgiving for anyone trying to play through an injury, that's for sure. Considering how many netminders have been hurt this season, I have to imagine it's especially difficult on goalies. I also suspect neither Campbell not Andersen will be able to get back to 100% until the off-season, which is why I was advocating for the Leafs to upgrade their goaltending depth. I also suspect that, if Andersen was healthy and performing well, Campbell would have taken more time to let things heal properly.