Oilers @ Leafs - Nov. 1st, 7:30pm - TSN4, Fan 590

[herman]

I still think you'd put your best defenders on the Nylander-Matthews line.

I would too. But now there are two 1.5 other lines that are a threat against lower quality defense.

I would suggest separating Matthews and Nylander once the kids get called up after the deadline. Potential weapons to work with on the wings: Kapanen, Leipsic, Lindberg, Johnsson, Leivo (haha)

 

[TBLeafer]

So Corrado was a false alarm.  Still just being toyed with by Babs.

[tweet]793475800133693440[/tweet]

Paul Hendrick ‏@HennyTweets  14m14 minutes ago Toronto, Ontario
Corrado not playing tonight. 

Rielly-Zaitsev
Marincin-Carrick
Gardiner-Polak

 

[Coco-puffs]

Soshnikov - Holland - Griffith >>>> Martin, Smith

UGH.  The Martin and Smith out of the lineup is getting beat to death on this board.  Don't forget gentlemen, the entire game isn't played 5 on 5.  (BTW, If it was, I wouldn't argue one bit against Holland being in ahead of Smith.  Martin I still like in my lineup and I don't care if you show me stats he's not a deterrent- I still like what he brings and isn't a complete boat anchor:  53.8% adjust CF%)

Penalty killing is important.  Guess who our best PK forward has been so far this season (by CA/60 and FA/60).  Matt Martin. 

Ben Smith was brought on specifically to help with the PK (Babcock said so in a presser).  Guess what, he's not doing great, but he's still an improvement over Holland.

Despite the small sample size, I'll post the FA/60 of our PK forwards with more than 2 mins of PK ice time (stats via corsica.hockey):

Martin:  44.47
Komarov:  58.22
Hyman:  63.99
Michalek:  66.04
Brown:  66.46
Smith:  69.10
Holland:  88.24

That's right.  Holland on the PK equals twice as many unblocked shot attempts at our net over Martin.  He's not just a face-puncher folks.

(BTW, I consider unblocked shot attempts the most important stat in penalty killing.  Shot attempts are just going to happen no matter what, but being in good position to block individually and as a unit (ie, not getting everyone out of position) is their job.)

 

[mr grieves]

Soshnikov - Holland - Griffith >>>> Martin, Smith

I would've juggled the lineup harder. JvR-Bozak need to be split. Kadri needs firepower help. Hyman is probably hindering Matthews more than helping too.

Yeah, this has been clear for the past week. Was hoping the "development season" would mean a bit more experimentation, trying something new before slumps dragged on for too long.

 

[mr grieves]

Soshnikov - Holland - Griffith >>>> Martin, Smith

Holland getting shoved into the pressbox is so weird. He was actually looking pretty good this season.

I thought he looked good too, but seems like Babcock got a face-off specialist he could use on the PK and that's squeezed Holland out.

 

[herman]

UGH.  The Martin and Smith out of the lineup is getting beat to death on this board.  Don't forget gentlemen, the entire game isn't played 5 on 5. 

I see where you're coming from. I don't think they're getting beat up on this board per se. Pretty much only by me  8).

With regards to your post about the PK, I totally agree. Nullifying shot attempts is of high value. Looking at our prospect pipeline and the glut of players we have pushing into contention, I've been mulling another idea.

You bring up a topic that is of interest to me and on my mind lately: team composition. Traditionally, we have GMs like Burke favouring a top-6, bottom-6 construction of skill/grind. Slightly less traditional, you have builds that Babcock favours in grind + skill on the top 9 and then filler on the bottom.

What if we had a team full of players who can flexibly play both styles? Matthews is our top end skill guy, but I'd argue he's a better puck retriever than Hyman. Just as fast, better hands, better vision. Nylander too, but he just does it with cerebral slickness rather than pure gumption or strength.

What if we could roll 4 lines (instead of 2-3?) of puck holders with speed and mix in some top dollar finish? What if these normally top-6 type players are rotated through more bottom-6ish roles to the point that they get good at it? Not PK specialists or 4th line grinders, but all at least capable of adequate to great defensive positioning? The game might not be played entirely 5v5, but 93+% of it is. Are you willing to make over 17% of your roster dedicated to the PK?

Our current lineup is littered with similar players (of differing caliber): Brown, Kadri, Marner, Holland, Griffith, Soshnikov. Players coming up of the same ilk: Leipsic, Kapanen, Lindberg, Timashov, Johnsson. Beyond them, there's Bracco, Dzierkals, Korostelev, Grundstrom, Korshkov, Brooks. Time it right and they all fit under the Salary Cap just fine.

Match all that with mobile defensemen who are backed up by solid forward coverage and you basically have a true 5-man attack and 5-man defense anywhere on the ice.

We're not there yet, but I can see the pieces, and I can see the tactics being taught and employed.

That's why I don't care for Martin, or slow skating heavy hitter d-men, or other one-dimensional specialists that don't ultimately contribute to scoring.

 

[Highlander]

Is it me or has Brown not been that impressive lately, he could go to the Marlies and give Leipsic a chance

 

[McGarnagle]

Hyman is the perfect 4th liner: fast, tenacious, N/S mindset, can score sometimes/maybe. I'd rather he be down there than Griffith.

Yeah, I tend to agree. I think that they were hoping Hyman would the be top-line Gary Roberts type to complement high end skill; I'm not seeing much of a scoring threat nor the ability to make high speed plays to keep up with his linemates. Tenacity and boardwork is there, though.

I'd like to see him play 4th line/PK with Martin, and maybe help forge out a 4th line identity, which would help both players.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Leivo to the Marlies on a conditioning sting.

 

[McGarnagle]

conditioning sting.

Well, that's one way to get him back on the IR.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

conditioning sting.

Well, that's one way to get him back on the IR.

The way Lou is making this stuff up, it'll be Bill Daly running the sting.

 

[Bill_Berg]

UGH.  The Martin and Smith out of the lineup is getting beat to death on this board.  Don't forget gentlemen, the entire game isn't played 5 on 5. 

I see where you're coming from. I don't think they're getting beat up on this board per se. Pretty much only by me  8).

With regards to your post about the PK, I totally agree. Nullifying shot attempts is of high value. Looking at our prospect pipeline and the glut of players we have pushing into contention, I've been mulling another idea.

You bring up a topic that is of interest to me and on my mind lately: team composition. Traditionally, we have GMs like Burke favouring a top-6, bottom-6 construction of skill/grind. Slightly less traditional, you have builds that Babcock favours in grind + skill on the top 9 and then filler on the bottom.

What if we had a team full of players who can flexibly play both styles? Matthews is our top end skill guy, but I'd argue he's a better puck retriever than Hyman. Just as fast, better hands, better vision. Nylander too, but he just does it with cerebral slickness rather than pure gumption or strength.

What if we could roll 4 lines (instead of 2-3?) of puck holders with speed and mix in some top dollar finish? What if these normally top-6 type players are rotated through more bottom-6ish roles to the point that they get good at it? Not PK specialists or 4th line grinders, but all at least capable of adequate to great defensive positioning? The game might not be played entirely 5v5, but 93+% of it is. Are you willing to make over 17% of your roster dedicated to the PK?

Our current lineup is littered with similar players (of differing caliber): Brown, Kadri, Marner, Holland, Griffith, Soshnikov. Players coming up of the same ilk: Leipsic, Kapanen, Lindberg, Timashov, Johnsson. Beyond them, there's Bracco, Dzierkals, Korostelev, Grundstrom, Korshkov, Brooks. Time it right and they all fit under the Salary Cap just fine.

Match all that with mobile defensemen who are backed up by solid forward coverage and you basically have a true 5-man attack and 5-man defense anywhere on the ice.

We're not there yet, but I can see the pieces, and I can see the tactics being taught and employed.

That's why I don't care for Martin, or slow skating heavy hitter d-men, or other one-dimensional specialists that don't ultimately contribute to scoring.

93% may be 5 v 5, but that other 7% is worth more than 7% of 5 v 5 time. You can rock everyone at 5 v 5, but if all the other team needs is a couple power plays to get a couple goals, rolling 4 lines 5 v 5 isn't going to make up for that.

 

[Bullfrog]

#freeHolland

 

[herman]

93% may be 5 v 5, but that other 7% is worth more than 7% of 5 v 5 time. You can rock everyone at 5 v 5, but if all the other team needs is a couple power plays to get a couple goals, rolling 4 lines 5 v 5 isn't going to make up for that.

I see your point. I'd like to also point out that rocking other teams on 5v5 generally leads to PP time for the rockers. So is having a PK specialist (with no offensive capability) still worth it in the long run?

I'm not against having good PK players, mind you.

 

[rdowdall]

93% may be 5 v 5, but that other 7% is worth more than 7% of 5 v 5 time. You can rock everyone at 5 v 5, but if all the other team needs is a couple power plays to get a couple goals, rolling 4 lines 5 v 5 isn't going to make up for that.

I see your point. I'd like to also point out that rocking other teams on 5v5 generally leads to PP time for the rockers. So is having a PK specialist (with no offensive capability) still worth it in the long run?

I'm not against having good PK players, mind you.

Hogwash

Your pro-PP, anti-PK agenda has gone on long enough Herman.  Time for you to acknowledge all facets of the game.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/TomGazzola/status/793505422527361024
Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr, Paul Coffey... if there are two other forward greats in the building tonight you've got one hell of an all-time line!

 

[Kin]

I would like to take this time to remind everyone that the Oilers should be everyone's least favourite team and we should be rooting for them to fail horribly.

From the near-extortion of city council for a ridiculously expensive publicly funded arena to building their team through failure they are the epitome of everything wrong in modern sports.

If they do end up winning tonight or having success this year or future years, ask yourself, what does that mean? What bragging rights would an Oilers fan legitimately have because of that success? We all know pro sports is inherently an illogical thing but shouldn't it mean something, anything, more than failing your way upwards?

Their owner's a dink, the local media carries their water and they're just a product of rewarded incompetence. If this were an 80's action movie they wouldn't be the villain, they'd be the villain's weasel sidekick.

Their arena should burn down and Connor McDavid should retire to take up the flute.

 

[mr grieves]

93% may be 5 v 5, but that other 7% is worth more than 7% of 5 v 5 time. You can rock everyone at 5 v 5, but if all the other team needs is a couple power plays to get a couple goals, rolling 4 lines 5 v 5 isn't going to make up for that.

I see your point. I'd like to also point out that rocking other teams on 5v5 generally leads to PP time for the rockers. So is having a PK specialist (with no offensive capability) still worth it in the long run?

I'm not against having good PK players, mind you.

I don't remember exactly, but didn't the Leafs used to have Sundin and Mogilny on the PK? Was the PK that worse off for it?

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/TSNHockey/status/793499845499715584

 

[Kin]

I don't remember exactly, but didn't the Leafs used to have Sundin and Mogilny on the PK? Was the PK that worse off for it?

Putting offensive players on the PK did used to be a real thing, if SH goal numbers are any indication. Pavel Bure, for instance, led league in SH goals twice and he was, to put it mildly, not a great defender.