Phil Kessel

[Kin]

This may be one of those semantic arguments, and since the old board no longer exists I can't really check this, but did people actually predict they would end last in the East or was that more of a "this might happen" kind of discussion?

So, then, you're saying that people didn't see it coming because nobody said with absolute certainty that it would happen? Nobody says that about anything. What people said in the Kessel thread was that it was a Leafs team that could easily finish in the bottom five of the league.

There were *multiple* people on this board who saw that a team relying on Vesa Toskala to play a significant role had no limit to their bottom. That doesn't make them geniuses or psychics. It just made them right.

This is in part because people realized both that teams swing wildly from year to year in this parity-heavy NHL but also because the margin between teams is so thin.

Think about you're saying. You're saying that someone seeing the Leafs as finishing 34-35-13, which would have had them finishing with the 6th pick, was reasonable but seeing them as finishing 32-38-14 where they actually finished was some sort of remote possibility? The difference between those two seasons can be no more than four goals scored at opportune moments. Factor in injuries and bounces and it's an insanely specific stance to take.

The 09-10 Maple Leafs were a team whose top three returning scorers were Jason Blake, Alexei Ponikarovsky and Matt Stajan. Their goalies were Vesa Toskala and an undrafted rookie in his first year of North american hockey. It didn't take a stellar prognosticator to see that they could easily be one of the worst teams in hockey.

 

[Kin]

I've said it before and I'll say it again every time this trade is discussed. If the pick was 3rd instead of 2nd, nobody would care and the trade would have been seen as a coup.

I don't know about it being considered a coup, but, there'd certainly be less hand-wringing over it and it wouldn't get brought up anywhere close to as often as it does.

Agreed, coup was probably the wrong word choice. It was just that in a draft marketed as "Taylor vs Tyler", having not-them as the pick the Leafs gave up would have, in my opinion, entirely changed the optics of this situation.

And the Titanic's maiden voyage would be seen entirely differently if they hadn't hit the iceberg. What exactly is the point then?

 

[Kin]

And there's miles of difference between Kessel and Gaustad.

Give me a break Nik. Nothing resembling the value the Leafs dealt for him? He's tied for 3rd and is 5th in points and has been in that range all year long. At $5.4M for the next two seasons, he's a bargain.

Anything less than two high 1st rounders and a high 2nd would be a massive steal for the other team.

If the Leafs wouldn't get anything resembling three high draft picks, what would you consider a "decent return?"

The problem with the idea of dealing Kessel is that you have to be realistic about what sort of teams out there would want to add Kessel and then about the price they'd pay.

The assets the Leafs dealt to acquire Kessel are the sorts of top tier building blocks that teams in the top 5 tend to hang onto because they need to add pieces they want to build around. Kessel is a very good player but the idea of a team wanting to build around him...well, they don't need to look very far to see the pitfalls there. Even if we want to assume that teams will look at Kessel this year and think that they'll get the same year from him consistently I think we then have to think they'll be as cognizant of his liabilities as well. Because of that I just don't think a team in the top 5, who I think would rather roll the dice on getting someone top flight, will part with their chance to draft high.

I think the market for Kessel right now will be among teams who have their building blocks in place but want to add a really good complimentary piece. Nashville comes to mind as a good example. Detroit maybe. Both of those teams have good young players and prospects you could build a workable deal around but you're not getting cornerstone type pieces.

 

[rdowdall]

And there's miles of difference between Kessel and Gaustad.

Give me a break Nik. Nothing resembling the value the Leafs dealt for him? He's tied for 3rd and is 5th in points and has been in that range all year long. At $5.4M for the next two seasons, he's a bargain.

Anything less than two high 1st rounders and a high 2nd would be a massive steal for the other team.

If the Leafs wouldn't get anything resembling three high draft picks, what would you consider a "decent return?"

The problem with the idea of dealing Kessel is that you have to be realistic about what sort of teams out there would want to add Kessel and then about the price they'd pay.

The assets the Leafs dealt to acquire Kessel are the sorts of top tier building blocks that teams in the top 5 tend to hang onto because they need to add pieces they want to build around. Kessel is a very good player but the idea of a team wanting to build around him...well, they don't need to look very far to see the pitfalls there. Even if we want to assume that teams will look at Kessel this year and think that they'll get the same year from him consistently I think we then have to think they'll be as cognizant of his liabilities as well. Because of that I just don't think a team in the top 5, who I think would rather roll the dice on getting someone top flight, will part with their chance to draft high.

I think the market for Kessel right now will be among teams who have their building blocks in place but want to add a really good complimentary piece. Nashville comes to mind as a good example. Detroit maybe. Both of those teams have good young players and prospects you could build a workable deal around but you're not getting cornerstone type pieces.

At this point the Leafs have to hope that somewhere along the line they got lucky with one of their picks and they are a cornerstone piece.  Otherwise the playoff drought will continue.

 

[Bullfrog]

The problem with the idea of dealing Kessel is that you have to be realistic about what sort of teams out there would want to add Kessel and then about the price they'd pay.

Definitely a valid point. I recognize that what I think is his value is probably not available.

 

[Highlander]

All Kessel needs is a skill centre who can dish it up for him. Can you imagine if we had Lupel, Sundin and Kessel. If Matts was still playing Kessel would have made 50 this year.
We need to find the right Centreman and fast.
Lets keep Phil in the house

 

[Zee]

Wow!... Did I just hear on the telecast that in 51 years, there have only been 5 occasions where a Leaf played finished in the top 5 in scoring? If Kessel makes it 6 in 52, that'll be quite the accomplishment.

Yeah, and some people think he should be traded.  This means you Damian Cox.

 

[the dingo ate my baby]

Kessel's fine for what he is.  However with the money Grabbo just got, Kessel's asking price scares me.  I'm not supportive of throwing 6.5+ Phil's way.  If that's what he thinks he'll get, I'd be on board with trading him this summer.

 

[bustaheims]

Kessel's fine for what he is.  However with the money Grabbo just got, Kessel's asking price scares me.  I'm not supportive of throwing 6.5+ Phil's way.  If that's what he thinks he'll get, I'd be on board with trading him this summer.

So, now we're putting the cart before the horse, are we? Kessel is signed for 2 more seasons and his next contract will be signed under a new, still to be defined CBA in what could be a vastly different economic landscape in the NHL.

 

[lamajama]

Phil is going nowhere as long as BB is in charge.

100% Guaranteed.

 

[Leafaholic99]

Food for thought:

Say the Leafs put a condition on that pick, if it was top 5 then we keep it and Boston gets our 2012 1st. Now say we fall to third last, and win the lottery this year, we are still giving up a top prospect.

If we win the draft lottery, will all this turn into Seguin vs Yakupov? Or still Kessel vs Seguin?

I hope it happens lol

 

[Kessel_81]

I rather have Ovechkin then Kessel.

your a baboon

 

[Kessel_81]

All Kessel needs is a skill centre who can dish it up for him. Can you imagine if we had Lupel, Sundin and Kessel. If Matts was still playing Kessel would have made 50 this year.
We need to find the right Centreman and fast.
Lets keep Phil in the house

AGREE'D

 

[princedpw]

This may be one of those semantic arguments, and since the old board no longer exists I can't really check this, but did people actually predict they would end last in the East or was that more of a "this might happen" kind of discussion?

So, then, you're saying that people didn't see it coming because nobody said with absolute certainty that it would happen? Nobody says that about anything. What people said in the Kessel thread was that it was a Leafs team that could easily finish in the bottom five of the league.

There were *multiple* people on this board who saw that a team relying on Vesa Toskala to play a significant role had no limit to their bottom. That doesn't make them geniuses or psychics. It just made them right.

This is in part because people realized both that teams swing wildly from year to year in this parity-heavy NHL but also because the margin between teams is so thin.

Think about you're saying. You're saying that someone seeing the Leafs as finishing 34-35-13, which would have had them finishing with the 6th pick, was reasonable but seeing them as finishing 32-38-14 where they actually finished was some sort of remote possibility? The difference between those two seasons can be no more than four goals scored at opportune moments. Factor in injuries and bounces and it's an insanely specific stance to take.

The 09-10 Maple Leafs were a team whose top three returning scorers were Jason Blake, Alexei Ponikarovsky and Matt Stajan. Their goalies were Vesa Toskala and an undrafted rookie in his first year of North american hockey. It didn't take a stellar prognosticator to see that they could easily be one of the worst teams in hockey.

The (extremely obvious) point that I would make is that there are many things things that "could" have happened at the point of the trade. Judging the merits of the trade when it was made required the ability to estimate the probability of various outcomes more concretely than just saying "x could happen".  For example, if there was a 20% chance of obtaining the 1st or 2nd pick that's one thing.  If there was an 80% chance, that is another.  To me, given a 20% chance at seguin/hall + some other picks vs. 100% chance at kessel, I think I'd go with kessel.  Given an 80% chance at seguin/hall + some other picks vs. 100% chance at kessel, I think I would go with seguin.  I couldn't tell you what the odds of landing in the 1-2 spot are (though am i right in thinking it has only happened twice in the last 30 years or so and Toronto has had a pretty good number of horrendous teams over that time frame?) Nor could i tell you what the probability of toronto's first the year after would be a top 2 pick.  Nor could i tell you what the probability of a later first round pick becoming as good as kessel is is.  That is why I had difficulty at the time knowing whether the trade would turn out to be a good one or not....there are just so many variables. 

I'm also a little skeptical of anyone who claims they did have it all worked out at the time with a high degree of certainty -- I mean people can guess and when there are lots of guesses, some of the guesses will wind up being correct guesses .... But that doesn't mean the correct guesser did anything more than get lucky (and the guesser might not even realize that they were in fact guessing and the outcome was due to a substantial amount of luck).

 

[Bonsixx]

This may be one of those semantic arguments, and since the old board no longer exists I can't really check this, but did people actually predict they would end last in the East or was that more of a "this might happen" kind of discussion?

So, then, you're saying that people didn't see it coming because nobody said with absolute certainty that it would happen? Nobody says that about anything. What people said in the Kessel thread was that it was a Leafs team that could easily finish in the bottom five of the league.

There were *multiple* people on this board who saw that a team relying on Vesa Toskala to play a significant role had no limit to their bottom. That doesn't make them geniuses or psychics. It just made them right.

This is in part because people realized both that teams swing wildly from year to year in this parity-heavy NHL but also because the margin between teams is so thin.

Think about you're saying. You're saying that someone seeing the Leafs as finishing 34-35-13, which would have had them finishing with the 6th pick, was reasonable but seeing them as finishing 32-38-14 where they actually finished was some sort of remote possibility? The difference between those two seasons can be no more than four goals scored at opportune moments. Factor in injuries and bounces and it's an insanely specific stance to take.

The 09-10 Maple Leafs were a team whose top three returning scorers were Jason Blake, Alexei Ponikarovsky and Matt Stajan. Their goalies were Vesa Toskala and an undrafted rookie in his first year of North american hockey. It didn't take a stellar prognosticator to see that they could easily be one of the worst teams in hockey.

The (extremely obvious) point that I would make is that there are many things things that "could" have happened at the point of the trade. Judging the merits of the trade when it was made required the ability to estimate the probability of various outcomes more concretely than just saying "x could happen".  For example, if there was a 20% chance of obtaining the 1st or 2nd pick that's one thing.  If there was an 80% chance, that is another.  To me, given a 20% chance at seguin/hall + some other picks vs. 100% chance at kessel, I think I'd go with kessel.  Given an 80% chance at seguin/hall + some other picks vs. 100% chance at kessel, I think I would go with seguin.  I couldn't tell you what the odds of landing in the 1-2 spot are (though am i right in thinking it has only happened twice in the last 30 years or so and Toronto has had a pretty good number of horrendous teams over that time frame?) Nor could i tell you what the probability of toronto's first the year after would be a top 2 pick.  Nor could i tell you what the probability of a later first round pick becoming as good as kessel is is.  That is why I had difficulty at the time knowing whether the trade would turn out to be a good one or not....there are just so many variables. 

I'm also a little skeptical of anyone who claims they did have it all worked out at the time with a high degree of certainty -- I mean people can guess and when there are lots of guesses, some of the guesses will wind up being correct guesses .... But that doesn't mean the correct guesser did anything more than get lucky (and the guesser might not even realize that they were in fact guessing and the outcome was due to a substantial amount of luck).

Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.

 

[Kin]

The (extremely obvious) point that I would make is that there are many things things that "could" have happened at the point of the trade. Judging the merits of the trade when it was made required the ability to estimate the probability of various outcomes more concretely than just saying "x could happen".  For example, if there was a 20% chance of obtaining the 1st or 2nd pick that's one thing.  If there was an 80% chance, that is another.  To me, given a 20% chance at seguin/hall + some other picks vs. 100% chance at kessel, I think I'd go with kessel.  Given an 80% chance at seguin/hall + some other picks vs. 100% chance at kessel, I think I would go with seguin.  I couldn't tell you what the odds of landing in the 1-2 spot are (though am i right in thinking it has only happened twice in the last 30 years or so and Toronto has had a pretty good number of horrendous teams over that time frame?) Nor could i tell you what the probability of toronto's first the year after would be a top 2 pick.  Nor could i tell you what the probability of a later first round pick becoming as good as kessel is is.  That is why I had difficulty at the time knowing whether the trade would turn out to be a good one or not....there are just so many variables.

One of the problems with the argument you're making is that you're acting as though we all had perfect visions of what the 2010 draft was during the summer of '09 and acting as though that should have informed opinions of the trade at the time. Did Seguin and Hall look like the best prospects available in the next year's draft? Yes. But did many think Angelo Esposito and Alexei Cherepanov would be the best prospects available in the 2007 draft? Yes.  There have also been years where a consensus "best two" grew to be a consensus "best 3" or "best 4". The way a draft looks a year before it takes place is not a matter of certainty.

Accordingly, nobody should have been and nobody was looking at the Kessel trade and saying "this is a bad trade because this will cost the team a shot at Seguin and we all know exactly how Seguin will turn out in the years to come" but rather "This very well could deprive the team of a very high pick which is where elite players tend to be drafted and the team is in desperate need of elite players to build around".

Even now, for instance, the fact that Ryan Johansen or Erik Gudbranson haven't yet turned into top flight NHL'ers doesn't mean that the serious value in that draft was exclusively in the top 2. Gudbranson is 20 and Johansen is only 19. Either player/ could still prove to be the gems of that draft.

The issue was, and remains, whether or not Kessel was so valuable that he was worth passing up the chance to get those kinds of assets. At the time he was traded for a lot of what people still view as his flaws were visible and we all know that there's probably no better example of how someone is seen a year before they're draft available and how they're seen at the draft then Kessel himself.

So even if it was, as argued, the age old question of the bird in the hand vs. the two in the bush the people who didn't like the trade really just knew the team needed to make that reach. 

I'm also a little skeptical of anyone who claims they did have it all worked out at the time with a high degree of certainty -- I mean people can guess and when there are lots of guesses, some of the guesses will wind up being correct guesses .... But that doesn't mean the correct guesser did anything more than get lucky (and the guesser might not even realize that they were in fact guessing and the outcome was due to a substantial amount of luck).

If looking at the team, and the returning talent they were bringing back, and coming to the conclusion that they probably wouldn't be very good is just guesswork then I think there's a lot of sports networks out there who can save money on analysts. Is Malkin better than John Mitchell? Who knows? Some will guess some way and some the other and some will end up being right, right?

 

[Leafaholic99]

Food for thought:

Say the Leafs put a condition on that pick, if it was top 5 then we keep it and Boston gets our 2012 1st. Now say we fall to third last, and win the lottery this year, we are still giving up a top prospect.

If we win the draft lottery, will all this turn into Seguin vs Yakupov? Or still Kessel vs Seguin?

I hope it happens lol

 

[Kessel Run]

Let's say Kessel nets another 10 points or so before the season is out, anyone think he has a shot at the Lady Byng Trophy?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Let's say Kessel nets another 10 points or so before the season is out, anyone think he has a shot at the Lady Byng Trophy?

I think he'll get serious consideration, yeah. I mean, it typically just goes to the highest scorer with the lowest PIM numbers, so he'll definitely get looked at.

 

[Kin]

Let's say Kessel nets another 10 points or so before the season is out, anyone think he has a shot at the Lady Byng Trophy?

I think he'll get serious consideration, yeah. I mean, it typically just goes to the highest scorer with the lowest PIM numbers, so he'll definitely get looked at.

Maybe. Although there are people right there with him in that sense. Giroux, Eberle, Hossa.

Personally though I'd like to see it stay with Datsyuk. He's scored at a PPG, has only 14 PIM's and does that while being one of the best defensive forwards in the league. I think that probably looks better on him than guys who just don't get penalized because they don't play a tight checking game.