Phil Kessel

[ontariojames]

There's no way that another GM is foolish enough to give up to high 1st's and a 2nd for him!  If any other team has scouted him they will realize that if you play the body on him and intimidate him early, he loses all effectiveness.

If it was really that easy to throw him off his game, he wouldn't be in the middle of his 4th straight 30+ goal season.

Or maybe if he wasn't so easily intimidated he would be in the middle of his 4th straight 40+ goal season.

 

[Tigger]

There's no way that another GM is foolish enough to give up to high 1st's and a 2nd for him!  If any other team has scouted him they will realize that if you play the body on him and intimidate him early, he loses all effectiveness.

If it was really that easy to throw him off his game, he wouldn't be in the middle of his 4th straight 30+ goal season.

...or be able to define the drafting order two years in a row. I know there was risk there but I was astonished how it turned out.

I like Kessel though, he's a heck of a player and a tremendous asset with years of hockey left in him.

 

[Zee]

It's definitely an option if Burke wants to change team direction.  As you pointed out you can probably get a boatload for him, more so than they gave up when they traded for him at 22.

There's no way that another GM is foolish enough to give up to high 1st's and a 2nd for him!  If any other team has scouted him they will realize that if you play the body on him and intimidate him early, he loses all effectiveness.

How many players in the league can you pencil in for 30+ goals every season?  He's in the middle of his 4th straight 30 goal season, put him on a great team with other elite players around him and he could easily be 40+ goals.  It's amazing he can score 30 each year given who he's played with up until this season.

...or be able to define the drafting order two years in a row. I know there was risk there but I was astonished how it turned out.

Well exactly.  When you're trading for a guy and give up a first round pick, there's no real way you can know that the pick will be top 5.  When I say the Leafs could get more than what they traded for, I'm saying they could get a roster player, a prime prospect and a draft pick for Kessel.  Goal scorers like him aren't easy to come by. 

The trade would have to be to a contending team who are "going for it" now and have the assets to give up a promising 18-19 year old.  When you're getting back Kessel at 25, you have your established scorer on the team and don't have to wait for the prospect to pan out. 

 

[The Red Polar Bear]

...or be able to define the drafting order two years in a row. I know there was risk there but I was astonished how it turned out.

Well exactly.  When you're trading for a guy and give up a first round pick, there's no real way you can know that the pick will be top 5.  When I say the Leafs could get more than what they traded for, I'm saying they could get a roster player, a prime prospect and a draft pick for Kessel.  Goal scorers like him aren't easy to come by. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again every time this trade is discussed. If the pick was 3rd instead of 2nd, nobody would care and the trade would have been seen as a coup.

I don't think anyone saw them finishing 29th. Missing the playoffs, sure. 5th-10th pick, fine. Heck, even if we finished 29th and someon from 26-28 won the draft lottery.

If the pick was later than 2nd overall in that draft, people would see this trade in an entirely different light.

 

[Bullfrog]

It's definitely an option if Burke wants to change team direction.  As you pointed out you can probably get a boatload for him, more so than they gave up when they traded for him at 22.

There's no way that another GM is foolish enough to give up to high 1st's and a 2nd for him!  If any other team has scouted him they will realize that if you play the body on him and intimidate him early, he loses all effectiveness.

You could easily get that for Kessel in a trade. Gaustad was acquired for a 1st rounder! Gaustad!

 

[Mikhail Bloodnovsky]

It's definitely an option if Burke wants to change team direction.  As you pointed out you can probably get a boatload for him, more so than they gave up when they traded for him at 22.

There's no way that another GM is foolish enough to give up to high 1st's and a 2nd for him!  If any other team has scouted him they will realize that if you play the body on him and intimidate him early, he loses all effectiveness.

You could easily get that for Kessel in a trade. Gaustad was acquired for a 1st rounder! Gaustad!

No, what we want to do is trade 80pts, 35 goal scorer for a top prospect that hopefully won't be ruined by us and can one day develop into a 80pts, 35 goal scorer that can also dig in the corners. This is what seperates this team from a contender - a guy who can dig in the corners.

 

[princedpw]

...or be able to define the drafting order two years in a row. I know there was risk there but I was astonished how it turned out.

Well exactly.  When you're trading for a guy and give up a first round pick, there's no real way you can know that the pick will be top 5.  When I say the Leafs could get more than what they traded for, I'm saying they could get a roster player, a prime prospect and a draft pick for Kessel.  Goal scorers like him aren't easy to come by. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again every time this trade is discussed. If the pick was 3rd instead of 2nd, nobody would care and the trade would have been seen as a coup.

I don't think anyone saw them finishing 29th. Missing the playoffs, sure. 5th-10th pick, fine. Heck, even if we finished 29th and someon from 26-28 won the draft lottery.

If the pick was later than 2nd overall in that draft, people would see this trade in an entirely different light.

Yes, this is an excellent point.  When assessing this trade, many people fail to appreciate the fact that the probability of finishing 1st or 2nd last in the NHL is low.  While counter-intuitive, it is accurate, I believe, to say that it is just as "difficult" to finishing 2nd last as it is to finish 2nd.  Even if you have a really great team on paper at the beginning of the season, it is unlikely you will finish first or second.  Even if you have a really bad team on paper at the beginning of the season, it is unlikely you will finish last or second last (eg: look at this year when people predicted Florida, Ottawa would finish last).  Hence, at the time of the trade getting Seguin or Hall was a low probability event.  What probability?  Perhaps less than 20%?  So there was a 1-in-5 chance that the trade would have worked out as favourably for the Bruins as it did?  Who knows...  They certainly got some good luck there.

 

[bustaheims]

I've said it before and I'll say it again every time this trade is discussed. If the pick was 3rd instead of 2nd, nobody would care and the trade would have been seen as a coup.

I don't know about it being considered a coup, but, there'd certainly be less hand-wringing over it and it wouldn't get brought up anywhere close to as often as it does.

 

[bustaheims]

No, what we want to do is trade 80pts, 35 goal scorer for a top prospect that hopefully won't be ruined by us and can one day develop into a 80pts, 35 goal scorer that can also dig in the corners. This is what seperates this team from a contender - a guy who can dig in the corners.

Also, that player needs to be ready and fully developed next season. The team needs to ship everyone out and start again, but, they also better make the playoffs next season, or I'll . . . I'll . . . I'll complain even louder and more annoyingly!

 

[Kin]

You could easily get that for Kessel in a trade. Gaustad was acquired for a 1st rounder! Gaustad!

But there are miles of differences between dealing a bottom of the round 1st and a top 5 pick. So-so players get traded for low first rounders nearly every year. Top 5 picks get traded, well, very infrequently as was discussed.

I think you could get a decent return for Kessel but nothing resembling the value the Leafs dealt for him. I think most teams with the kind of prospects that you'd be talking about there would rather hang onto the young assets they can control for years.

 

[Kin]

I don't think anyone saw them finishing 29th. Missing the playoffs, sure. 5th-10th pick, fine. Heck, even if we finished 29th and someon from 26-28 won the draft lottery.

Yup nobody could have seen it. Except for the multiple people on this board in the thread about the Kessel trade as soon as it was announced.

But, yeah, except for those Kreskin like wunderkinds nobody saw it coming.

 

[The Red Polar Bear]

I don't think anyone saw them finishing 29th. Missing the playoffs, sure. 5th-10th pick, fine. Heck, even if we finished 29th and someon from 26-28 won the draft lottery.

Yup nobody could have seen it. Except for the multiple people on this board in the thread about the Kessel trade as soon as it was announced.

But, yeah, except for those Kreskin like wunderkinds nobody saw it coming.

This may be one of those semantic arguments, and since the old board no longer exists I can't really check this, but did people actually predict they would end last in the East or was that more of a "this might happen" kind of discussion?

There were *multiple* people on this board that thought the first round pick would turn into the 1st-2nd overall at the time of the trade? Below the NYI who had 61 points the previous season who jumped up to 79? TBL who had 66 points and jumped to 80? The Avalanche, who jumped from 69 points and last in the West to 95 points and in the playoffs? That all three of these teams would make a minimum 14 point jump this specific year then having both NYI and COL fall back to 73 and 68 points respectively the following year?

I mean, yeah, it was *possible*, but I don't recall there being the opinion that finishing last or second last in the NHL was the probable outcome of that season. If you and Kreskin saw that as the likely outcome of the season, and hence, the proposed value of the pick, then congrats.

 

[The Red Polar Bear]

I've said it before and I'll say it again every time this trade is discussed. If the pick was 3rd instead of 2nd, nobody would care and the trade would have been seen as a coup.

I don't know about it being considered a coup, but, there'd certainly be less hand-wringing over it and it wouldn't get brought up anywhere close to as often as it does.

Agreed, coup was probably the wrong word choice. It was just that in a draft marketed as "Taylor vs Tyler", having not-them as the pick the Leafs gave up would have, in my opinion, entirely changed the optics of this situation.

 

[Bullfrog]

You could easily get that for Kessel in a trade. Gaustad was acquired for a 1st rounder! Gaustad!

But there are miles of differences between dealing a bottom of the round 1st and a top 5 pick. So-so players get traded for low first rounders nearly every year. Top 5 picks get traded, well, very infrequently as was discussed.

I think you could get a decent return for Kessel but nothing resembling the value the Leafs dealt for him. I think most teams with the kind of prospects that you'd be talking about there would rather hang onto the young assets they can control for years.

And there's miles of difference between Kessel and Gaustad.

Give me a break Nik. Nothing resembling the value the Leafs dealt for him? He's tied for 3rd and is 5th in points and has been in that range all year long. At $5.4M for the next two seasons, he's a bargain.

Anything less than two high 1st rounders and a high 2nd would be a massive steal for the other team.

If the Leafs wouldn't get anything resembling three high draft picks, what would you consider a "decent return?"

 

[Bonsixx]

You could easily get that for Kessel in a trade. Gaustad was acquired for a 1st rounder! Gaustad!

But there are miles of differences between dealing a bottom of the round 1st and a top 5 pick. So-so players get traded for low first rounders nearly every year. Top 5 picks get traded, well, very infrequently as was discussed.

I think you could get a decent return for Kessel but nothing resembling the value the Leafs dealt for him. I think most teams with the kind of prospects that you'd be talking about there would rather hang onto the young assets they can control for years.

And there's miles of difference between Kessel and Gaustad.

Give me a break Nik. Nothing resembling the value the Leafs dealt for him? He's tied for 3rd and is 5th in points and has been in that range all year long. At $5.4M for the next two seasons, he's a bargain.

Anything less than two high 1st rounders and a high 2nd would be a massive steal for the other team.

If the Leafs wouldn't get anything resembling three high draft picks, what would you consider a "decent return?"

Yeah but, what team that's bad enough to have "high first-rounders" would trade for a player like Kessel at that point in their assumed rebuild?

Besides the Leafs, I mean.

 

[moon111]

I rather have Ovechkin then Kessel.

 

[maplesyrup]

Wow!... Did I just hear on the telecast that in 51 years, there have only been 5 occasions where a Leaf played finished in the top 5 in scoring? If Kessel makes it 6 in 52, that'll be quite the accomplishment.

 

[Bullfrog]

I rather have Ovechkin then Kessel.

So would I, but a $9.5M cap hit is pretty intense.

 

[ZBBM]

If you trade Kessel you do it for one of three reasons:

1.  His defense negates too much of his offense.
2.  You get a proven starting goalie back as part of the deal.
3.  You get an elite 1C back as part of the deal.

#1 is a matter of debate, but it still seems Kessel lacks the competitive edge that would vault him into the status of superstar.

#2 would be a deal I'd make for the right goaltender (say, Rask).

#3 you would do only if you think Lupul is the real deal.

 

[Tigger]

If you trade Kessel you do it for one of three reasons:

1.  His defense negates too much of his offense.
2.  You get a proven starting goalie back as part of the deal.
3.  You get an elite 1C back as part of the deal.

#1 is a matter of debate, but it still seems Kessel lacks the competitive edge that would vault him into the status of superstar.

#2 would be a deal I'd make for the right goaltender (say, Rask).

#3 you would do only if you think Lupul is the real deal.

Kind of bullet response...

I think the first one can be dealt with.

I wouldn't make a goalie a prominent part of a trade involving Kessel.

I would consider moving Lupul many light years ahead of moving Kessel right now.