Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens

[OldTimeHockey]

LOL and this is why people have a hard time with Nik. I'm always up for someone explaining the game of hockey to me though.

I really thought "the Leafs didn't play a game where they dominated the Habs but lost" was fairly straightforward. "Oh yeah, well here's a small stretch of game 6 where they badly outshot the Habs but lost because of a deflected goal" was not a particularly solid rebuttal but if that's why people have a hard time with me I suppose that's my cross to bear.

Yeah that's exactly it. Keep educating man. We are forever in your debt.

There really is nothing like trying to educate someone on a sport that he has played for 37 years(as a goalie and then a player when knees became too bad), coached for 25(as a goalie coach for a good chunk of it), ran a hockey school for 5(continue to do so).

Again, thanks man. You're an angel to offer up your wisdom for free.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Thoughts on this series

Good:
- Campbell was largely good and truly did enough over the course of the series to give the Leafs enough of a chance to win, which is quite different from previous years

I agree with most of what you had to say except this part. I feel that while Campbell made some good saves, he didn't stop the shots that he had to. That is not "giving a team an opportunity to win." I can think of at least 3 very critical goals that an NHL playoff winning goalie cannot let go into the back of his net. I realize that I've brought this up a couple times, but I don't think it's getting enough attention in the media. I get that Jack is a super nice guy and a real good teammate, but that means nothing when you lose game 7 after being up 3-1. Was he the sole reason they lost? Far from it. Matthews, Marner, Tavares injury, Muzzin injury, Foligno injury, the Leafs inability to change their game style are all contributing factors, but Campbell could have righted that with a couple "ordinary saves" when the team needed them the most.
There's big issues with the five hole goal from the top of the circle from Gallagher in Game 7. The 5 on 3 goal short side when all the Leafs needed was a stop. The deflected goal in OT after the Leafs outshot the habs 13-1. Those are the killers. Those are the goals/saves that mean the difference between a first round loss and a first round victory. If the Leafs go into next season with Campbell as their starter with no plan B, we will be having the same conversation next spring.

When your goalie posts a .920+ and has a better save percentage than the other guy then you're really overthinking the goaltending and under thinking the shooters.

If I'm coming off that I'm putting all the blame at Campbell's feet, I apologize. Definitely not what I'm trying to get across. I just don't think Campbell should escape all blame. Like I've said before, being a goalie myself, I am a defender of the position in general. I just don't think Campbell is an NHL starter. I don't get the feeling that he's going to stop the shots when he has to.

I fully agree that Marner and Matthews have to be better. I fully agree that Thornton should have been in the pressbox. Keefe needs to be better. That's two playoff series in a row where he didn't adjust when what the Leafs were doing, clearly was not working.

(Side Note, Andersen put up a .936 last year against Columbus and a .922 vs Boston the year before yet he's categorized as being the exact same thing as I am pegging Campbell as. A goalie that can't make the big save at the right time. Yes I know it's a bigger sample size for Andersen)

It's still mostly the shooting just like it was last year, it just is. I get the need for a timely save but this is a 5 or 7 game series and if you're forced to make every timely save and your team gives you no run support and therefore no margin of error (and you ignore goals that should've gone in but were saved) then I'm not really sure what more there is to do. Put the puck in the net just one more time than they did in Game 5 & 6 and this conversation doesn't even happen.

I agree that the shooting has to be better. Of course if a team manages to score one extra goal, the series does not go on. Like I said, I agree that Marner and Matthews have to be better.
All I'm highlighting is that the goaltending has to be better as well. Yes he's not "why they lost". But he's certainly not going to be the reason why they make it past the first round in future seasons. At least in my opinion.
I stand by my point that he's not a starter. Or at least not a very good one. His style of play doesn't suit it(can't be a swimmer) nor does his mindset(too fragile and easily thrown). He'd make an excellent 1b or back up though.

 

[L K]

He's first in GAA and 3rd in SV% in the postseason. He's 6th in goals saved above expected.

I'm not comfortable just signing a warm body to be the backup to him.  I think you need a 1A/1B scenario with a guy who could potentially take the starter job away from him but I'm absolutely on board with him getting a chance to run with it.

 

[bustaheims]

So Nik, busta, et al.: are you comfortable with running with Campbell next year?  Or he just the best we are likely to get?  And are you done with Freddie?

I think, next season, the Leafs need to roll with Campbell and another goalie who is in a similar situation - proven himself to be more than a full-time backup, but not really established as a a starter. I was a fan of Andersen for most of his time here, but 2 less than great seasons in a row, and he'll be 32 going into next season. I wouldn't be willing to give him a contract will any kind of term, and, unless he's willing to take a substantial pay cut to stick around for another season, I wish him the best of luck elsewhere.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So Nik, busta, et al.: are you comfortable with running with Campbell next year?  Or he just the best we are likely to get?  And are you done with Freddie?

I think, next season, the Leafs need to roll with Campbell and another goalie who is in a similar situation - proven himself to be more than a full-time backup, but not really established as a a starter. I was a fan of Andersen for most of his time here, but 2 less than great seasons in a row, and he'll be 32 going into next season. I wouldn't be willing to give him a contract will any kind of term, and, unless he's willing to take a substantial pay cut to stick around for another season, I wish him the best of luck elsewhere.

Yeah I don't think anyone ever saw Campbell as an undisputed number 1 goalie. There's really only a handful of those types left in the league anyway. Most of the league is going to a platoon set-up these days. Hopefully we can snag one of those free agents or see if anyone becomes available during the expansion process. We just need to be conservative on how much cap space we allocate there.

 

[bustaheims]

Quite frankly, Campbell is the only reason game 5 wasn't completely out of hand before the end of the 1st period.

That was actually game 6. Game 5 he wasn't good on goals 2 and 3.

No, it was game 5, when the Leafs could barely get a stick on the puck for most of the 1st period. I could have been a much deeper hole for the team to dig out of if Campbell didn't play well for that stretch. He kept things from getting out of hand before the Leafs actually sort of got their legs under them.

 

[bustaheims]

So Nik, busta, et al.: are you comfortable with running with Campbell next year?  Or he just the best we are likely to get?  And are you done with Freddie?

I think, next season, the Leafs need to roll with Campbell and another goalie who is in a similar situation - proven himself to be more than a full-time backup, but not really established as a a starter. I was a fan of Andersen for most of his time here, but 2 less than great seasons in a row, and he'll be 32 going into next season. I wouldn't be willing to give him a contract will any kind of term, and, unless he's willing to take a substantial pay cut to stick around for another season, I wish him the best of luck elsewhere.

Yeah I don't think anyone ever saw Campbell as an undisputed number 1 goalie. There's really only a handful of those types left in the league anyway. Most of the league is going to a platoon set-up these days. Hopefully we can snag one of those free agents or see if anyone becomes available during the expansion process. We just need to be conservative on how much cap space we allocate there.

Exactly. I'm comfortable giving Campbell the 1A role and letting him have more starts early in the season (like a 3 out of 5 type split), and go from there. Definitely not comfortable to hand him a clear #1 role, and, as you say, that's a dying breed any way.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

So Nik, busta, et al.: are you comfortable with running with Campbell next year?  Or he just the best we are likely to get?  And are you done with Freddie?

I think, next season, the Leafs need to roll with Campbell and another goalie who is in a similar situation - proven himself to be more than a full-time backup, but not really established as a a starter. I was a fan of Andersen for most of his time here, but 2 less than great seasons in a row, and he'll be 32 going into next season. I wouldn't be willing to give him a contract will any kind of term, and, unless he's willing to take a substantial pay cut to stick around for another season, I wish him the best of luck elsewhere.

Yeah I don't think anyone ever saw Campbell as an undisputed number 1 goalie. There's really only a handful of those types left in the league anyway. Most of the league is going to a platoon set-up these days. Hopefully we can snag one of those free agents or see if anyone becomes available during the expansion process. We just need to be conservative on how much cap space we allocate there.

Exactly. I'm comfortable giving Campbell the 1A role and letting him have more starts early in the season (like a 3 out of 5 type split), and go from there. Definitely not comfortable to hand him a clear #1 role, and, as you say, that's a dying breed any way.

I don't really agree that the clear #1 role is a dying breed in that I think most teams that win a cup do it on the backs of a clear number 1. I could be mistaken on that.

Being a goalie myself, i've rightly or wrongly believed for a while that you're the most important position on the ice. Much like a quarterback in football or a pitcher in baseball. You can have the best wide receiver in the game but if you don't have anyone that can get it to him, you're sort of screwed. Sure, you can get by on an exceptional run game, but you're talking top notch running game. In baseball, you can outhit your pitching for a while but it's eventually going to catch up to you.

In the case of the Leafs series, no they did not score enough to win. That's a fact. But, when a team isn't scoring(or struggling like Matthews and Marner is) a team needs a goalie that can steal the show. Perhaps Matthews and Marner are more prone to disappearing and that's a problem in itself, but it is the hand that we've been dealt and I don't think we're easily fixing players that disappear. So, to me the solution is to find a goalie that can steal those games. Certainly that's easier said than done.

You're correct that finding someone that can come in on a 1a/1b rotation may be the best method or for that matter, the only method. But don't we already have that guy in Andersen?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

You're correct that finding someone that can come in on a 1a/1b rotation may be the best method or for that matter, the only method. But don't we already have that guy in Andersen?

If he ends up getting paid more like a 1a/1b goalie (by that I mean $3-4mil) I wouldn't be completely opposed to bringing him back. Depends what else is available.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

You're correct that finding someone that can come in on a 1a/1b rotation may be the best method or for that matter, the only method. But don't we already have that guy in Andersen?

If he ends up getting paid more like a 1a/1b goalie (by that I mean $3-4mil) I wouldn't be completely opposed to bringing him back. Depends what else is available.

Personally I think he sees the writing on the wall and will be looking elsewhere. Edmonton?

 

[Guilt Trip]

If you could get Freddie back at under 4 on a 2 year you'd def have to be interested. Should be interesting after the drafts.

 

[Guilt Trip]

You're correct that finding someone that can come in on a 1a/1b rotation may be the best method or for that matter, the only method. But don't we already have that guy in Andersen?

If he ends up getting paid more like a 1a/1b goalie (by that I mean $3-4mil) I wouldn't be completely opposed to bringing him back. Depends what else is available.

Personally I think he sees the writing on the wall and will be looking elsewhere. Edmonton?

I think EDM or maybe Philly will pony up to get him.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't really agree that the clear #1 role is a dying breed in that I think most teams that win a cup do it on the backs of a clear number 1. I could be mistaken on that.

3 of the last 4 Cup winning teams didn't have what we would traditionally have considered a clear #1. They mostly had the 3/5 split I was suggesting, with a guy who was the 1A who carried the load once the playoffs got going, but less so during the regular season.

The only exception in the group was Tampa last season, but they also have one of the top 3 goalies in the league, which makes them somewhat of an outlier. If you get a guy of the calibre of Vasilevskiy, you can run him out almost every game. Teams that don't have that guy have been going more and more towards a split. Of the teams left in the playoffs this season, only Tampa and Colorado didn't have a split in the 60/40 range.

 

[Kin]

So Nik, busta, et al.: are you comfortable with running with Campbell next year?  Or he just the best we are likely to get?  And are you done with Freddie?

Well, the beautiful thing of Campbell's contract situation is he's providing such good value that having him around is a plus no matter what the situation ends up being. If there's one thing I'd hope this year taught us it's that the team really needs to be strong at the position up and down the organization because injuries happen, people play poorly at stretches, etc.

I don't think anyone would say "Campbell is the #1 next year and he'll play 70 games" right now and I think obviously you want to add another goalie who is capable of being in charge if Campbell is hurt or ineffective. More plainly you want to sign the best goalie available given the limited cap dollars the team will have provided you can still get good value.

But right now I'm absolutely comfortable giving Campbell the opportunity to come into camp and win a starting job.

 

[Kin]

3 of the last 4 Cup winning teams didn't have what we would traditionally have considered a clear #1. They mostly had the 3/5 split I was suggesting, with a guy who was the 1A who carried the load once the playoffs got going, but less so during the regular season.

The only exception in the group was Tampa last season, but they also have one of the top 3 goalies in the league, which makes them somewhat of an outlier. If you get a guy of the calibre of Vasilevskiy, you can run him out almost every game.

That said, it may prove noteworthy that Tampa won things in a shortened season. The last team to win a cup on the back of a goalie who started 60+ games in the regular season was the Kings in 2011-2012.

 

[Frank E]

It'd be nice if the Leafs could draft and develop a damn goalie for once.

 

[Kin]

There really is nothing like trying to educate someone on a sport that he has played for 37 years(as a goalie and then a player when knees became too bad), coached for 25(as a goalie coach for a good chunk of it), ran a hockey school for 5(continue to do so).

I'm really not sure what you're looking for here. It feels like in light of that when I said "a game" you would have known what that was. Again, I really didn't think that needed clarification. I'm not being facetious when I say that.

.

 

[bustaheims]

That said, it may prove noteworthy that Tampa won things in a shortened season. The last team to win a cup on the back of a goalie who started 60+ games in the regular season was the Kings in 2011-2012.

Yup. In the cap era, there's actually only been a 3 teams (by my count) that won the Cup with a goalie that started 60+ games in the regular season. There's a number that were in the mid to high 50s, but, the league is definitely trending towards a much more balanced split. Between 67/33 and 50/50 seems to be where teams want to be now.

 

[ZBBM]

If you can get Andersen back at a lower cost (probably unlikely) wouldn't he be rather easily the best option available to run i this split system?

 

[bustaheims]

If you can get Andersen back at a lower cost (probably unlikely) wouldn't he be rather easily the best option available to run i this split system?

His recent track record says no.