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Shanahan/Players end of season press events

Potvin29 said:
To me one of the joys of sports is optimism stemming from either a new season, new GM, new players, etc.  There's always reason to be skeptical and at the same time there's no reason to be with a new person until they give you reason to be.  It's not contradictory to be disappointed with past management but still be optimistic for new - they're all distinct from one another.
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Couldnt have said it better. Let's hope this new management group can make some strides. Shanahan may not have the background, but a plan to tear it down and properly rebuild was always something that was preferred, at least on these boards.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Potvin29 said:
To me one of the joys of sports is optimism stemming from either a new season, new GM, new players, etc.  There's always reason to be skeptical and at the same time there's no reason to be with a new person until they give you reason to be.  It's not contradictory to be disappointed with past management but still be optimistic for new - they're all distinct from one another.
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Rielly/Nylander/Strome or Marner is the best trio of under-22 players I've ever seen this team have. That's largely where my optimism is coming from.
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And... I'll say it one more time before I cant.....they still hold a ticket for a lottery that could possibly bring it the biggest talent this team has ever had...so there's still that....at least until Saturday.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
As someone noted earlier, every time there's a major management shakeup there's a new buzzline on how this GM will finally fix things.  Shanahan certainly looks on the right path, but since we won't know for sure for at least 3 or 4 more years it's probably a good idea to not get our hopes up just yet.
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Well, I think that's where people kind of confuse the concept of optimism. I go into every season with hope things get better. I can even be partial to looking on the bright side of things and saying "Well, if Bernier plays great and Kessel is a top 10 scorer and Rielly develops, playoffs are a lock!"

But there's a difference between that and, you know, "Hunter is going to be much better than Nonis at drafting/developing players". I can still hope that's true without stating it as fact based on how they're being sold. 
 
Is it fair to say that Hunter and Dubas will have a better idea of who are coming up into the NHL draft for the next 3 years from the OHL pipeline than nearly any other NHL GM? Granted the OHL is only one feeder of many.
 
They really seem to be getting some really good late round picks from our European scouts, I believe they kept two of the three, dumping Peter I.
May be good to get another good scout over there.
 
herman said:
Is it fair to say that Hunter and Dubas will have a better idea of who are coming up into the NHL draft for the next 3 years from the OHL pipeline than nearly any other NHL GM? Granted the OHL is only one feeder of many.
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Not really.  What Dubas and moreso with Hunter provide is guys who are regarded as good junior hockey minds.  The Hunters have been a NHL forward factory of the last few years.  Some of it certainly has been due to their relationship with certain US born players but they have also pulled a lot of pretty solid European players (not all are in the NHL anymore though).

Picking and evaluating players at the age of 13-15 isn't really the same as evaluating them again at 17-19.  They certainly provide a good database of junior hockey knowledge but I don't think it really provides any tangible benefit over the other 29 organizations. 

I also really don't have a great feel for how reliable advanced statistics are being measured in junior hockey when you don't have anywhere near the same level of video feed and player monitoring that the NHL can provide.  So I'm not sure how reliable Dubas' models are for drafting prospects vs. professional scouting decisions.

Hunter and Dubas being good junior hockey guys certainly is good from the standpoint that they aren't hiring guys who hiss and shield their eyes at a cross or sunlight but it's really only going to be time that will determine if they are good for the NHL. 
 
L K said:
I also really don't have a great feel for how reliable advanced statistics are being measured in junior hockey when you don't have anywhere near the same level of video feed and player monitoring that the NHL can provide.  So I'm not sure how reliable Dubas' models are for drafting prospects vs. professional scouting decisions.
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They're not really being measured.  Dubas had it done all in-house with the Greyhounds - meaning staff was doing the tracking at games and with video after games.

What do you mean "Dubas' models..for drafting prospects"?  I don't think he has a model for drafting, and OHL teams employ professional scouts as well.  He's on record as not running the Soo only on analytics - or even majority on analytics.  Just that it was a big part of their process, but so was actual hands-on scouting.

The quote:

"Everyone knows I have an affinity for that stuff, but it?s really about learning and getting as much information as I can. I didn?t run the team in Soo solely on stats. It was a good-sized part, but the rest of it was just hockey: Evaluating, dealing with scouting reports, with the personalities on the team, hiring the best scouts we could.  Analytics were a major help to me in getting a better level of certainty. But I think there are people who are far further advanced than me with it.?
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Nik the Trik said:
LuncheonMeat said:
Nik the Trik said:
"Hunter is going to be much better than Nonis at drafting/developing players"
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You better believe I'm saving that quote, Mister.  :P
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I've moved on from you. Now my beef is with the world.
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RGEoO.gif
 
Potvin29 said:
L K said:
I also really don't have a great feel for how reliable advanced statistics are being measured in junior hockey when you don't have anywhere near the same level of video feed and player monitoring that the NHL can provide.  So I'm not sure how reliable Dubas' models are for drafting prospects vs. professional scouting decisions.
Click to expand...

They're not really being measured.  Dubas had it done all in-house with the Greyhounds - meaning staff was doing the tracking at games and with video after games.

What do you mean "Dubas' models..for drafting prospects"?  I don't think he has a model for drafting, and OHL teams employ professional scouts as well.  He's on record as not running the Soo only on analytics - or even majority on analytics.  Just that it was a big part of their process, but so was actual hands-on scouting.

The quote:

"Everyone knows I have an affinity for that stuff, but it?s really about learning and getting as much information as I can. I didn?t run the team in Soo solely on stats. It was a good-sized part, but the rest of it was just hockey: Evaluating, dealing with scouting reports, with the personalities on the team, hiring the best scouts we could.  Analytics were a major help to me in getting a better level of certainty. But I think there are people who are far further advanced than me with it.?
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What I mean is that we don't know if Dubas approach to the scouting and management will be effective at the NHL level.  It's mostly a statement of cautious optimism because I like the general approach that he holds but I also don't have undying faith that what he offers will work.

When I say analytics and models I am combining Dubas' use of advanced statistics along with the traditional scouting methods.  And my question wasn't so much for what Dubas did in house with the Soo, but more so with what the Leafs are doing now in terms of their own advanced metrics on scouting prospects.  That's what I don't know anything about. 

I'm sure there is an element of it being involved in the Leafs assessment of prospects when they go out on scouting trips or review video, but it's extremely doubtful that it is going to be frequent enough to provide reliable robust data in the same way that it can be used in the NHL where you have far fewer players to scout (one league) and far better video data to review things that aren't seen live.
 
Thanks, L K.

I think the advanced stats are more for professional scouting rather than drafting, due to the aforementioned lack of data in feeder leagues. To a degree, they could potentially interpolate a drafting template from some of the players they've identified as fits for the team through analytics.
 
L K said:
Potvin29 said:
L K said:
I also really don't have a great feel for how reliable advanced statistics are being measured in junior hockey when you don't have anywhere near the same level of video feed and player monitoring that the NHL can provide.  So I'm not sure how reliable Dubas' models are for drafting prospects vs. professional scouting decisions.
Click to expand...

They're not really being measured.  Dubas had it done all in-house with the Greyhounds - meaning staff was doing the tracking at games and with video after games.

What do you mean "Dubas' models..for drafting prospects"?  I don't think he has a model for drafting, and OHL teams employ professional scouts as well.  He's on record as not running the Soo only on analytics - or even majority on analytics.  Just that it was a big part of their process, but so was actual hands-on scouting.

The quote:

"Everyone knows I have an affinity for that stuff, but it?s really about learning and getting as much information as I can. I didn?t run the team in Soo solely on stats. It was a good-sized part, but the rest of it was just hockey: Evaluating, dealing with scouting reports, with the personalities on the team, hiring the best scouts we could.  Analytics were a major help to me in getting a better level of certainty. But I think there are people who are far further advanced than me with it.?
Click to expand...
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What I mean is that we don't know if Dubas approach to the scouting and management will be effective at the NHL level.  It's mostly a statement of cautious optimism because I like the general approach that he holds but I also don't have undying faith that what he offers will work.

When I say analytics and models I am combining Dubas' use of advanced statistics along with the traditional scouting methods.  And my question wasn't so much for what Dubas did in house with the Soo, but more so with what the Leafs are doing now in terms of their own advanced metrics on scouting prospects.  That's what I don't know anything about. 

I'm sure there is an element of it being involved in the Leafs assessment of prospects when they go out on scouting trips or review video, but it's extremely doubtful that it is going to be frequent enough to provide reliable robust data in the same way that it can be used in the NHL where you have far fewer players to scout (one league) and far better video data to review things that aren't seen live.
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Ahh, thanks for clarifying.  I think I misunderstood what you meant.
 
herman said:
Thanks, L K.

I think the advanced stats are more for professional scouting rather than drafting, due to the aforementioned lack of data in feeder leagues. To a degree, they could potentially interpolate a drafting template from some of the players they've identified as fits for the team through analytics.
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I was anxious about analytics. I figured they may use it for day to day decisions and assessment of their own players. I agree it's a great tool for scouting feeder leagues. That makes sense to me.
 
In Elliotte Friedman's 30 thoughts this week he noted that the Leafs would pursue Burke, but not for the GM role. I actually didn't realize that Burke had been in Phoenix/Arizona's management team for quite some time now. I thought he was solely their goaltending coach. It really seems like he's after a GM job now though. Any other position here would be more of a side-step.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
In Elliotte Friedman's 30 thoughts this week he noted that the Leafs would pursue Burke, but not for the GM role. I actually didn't realize that Burke had been in Phoenix/Arizona's management team for quite some time now. I thought he was solely their goaltending coach. It really seems like he's after a GM job now though. Any other position here would be more of a side-step.
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Why Sean Burke?  What has he really accomplished in his 7 odd years in management?

I hope he isn't being considered for the G.M. position.  Not sure he is a good candidate given his lack of experience. JMHO.
 
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