Steve Stamkos?

[Kin]

Possibly before the latest CBA, but definitely not after.  20/20 hindsight now that an 8 year term is the max, The most overall money over term those players would have had the ability to capitalize on.  How long is it going to be before another NHL'er under current cap can sign a $124M contract?

Towes - 2 contracts $31 500 000 + 84 000 000 = $115 500 000 over 13 years.  Less than Ovechkin between the two for example.  Towes will NOT get another contract close to that in his mid thirties.

But it's not about Ovechkin vs. Toews, it's about Ovechkin vs. Ovechkin.

 

[bustaheims]

Towes - 2 contracts $31 500 000 + 84 000 000 = $115 500 000 over 13 years.  Less than Ovechkin between the two for example.  Towes will NOT get another contract close to that in his mid thirties.

Sure, but Ovechkin could have easily signed a 5 year, $45M deal, followed by an 8 year, $100M deal instead of a 13 year, $124M deal.

 

[TBLeafer]

Towes - 2 contracts $31 500 000 + 84 000 000 = $115 500 000 over 13 years.  Less than Ovechkin between the two for example.  Towes will NOT get another contract close to that in his mid thirties.

Sure, but Ovechkin could have easily signed a 5 year, $45M deal, followed by an 8 year, $100M deal instead of a 13 year, $124M deal.

But he didn't and even so, there's only one NHL'er that has the potential to earn close to what Ovechkin did over a 12 or 13 year term.

Plus even with Stammer earning more over his RFA years and signing an 11M max term 7 year, he's only in Towes territory, not Ovechkin territory.

If he got that he'd have $114.5M over 12 years.

So if it was maximizing total earnings over term was the player's key motivation, signing a max term contract when they hit RFA, not UFA would have been more lucrative overall.

 

[Kin]

But he didn't and even so, there's only one NHL'er that has the potential to earn close to what Ovechkin did over a 12 or 13 year term.

Plus even with Stammer earning more over his RFA years and signing an 11M max term 7 year, he's only in Towes territory, not Ovechkin territory.

If he got that he'd have $114.5M over 12 years.

So if it was maximizing total earnings over term was the player's key motivation, signing a max term contract when they hit RFA, not UFA would have been more lucrative overall.

1. That's only true if Stamkos gets 11 per. If he gets 12, he'll make 121.5 million over 12 years and almost certainly more than Ovechkin over 13 years.

2. Your comparison assumes that Tampa was willing to pay Stamkos the same way Washington paid Ovechkin.

 

[bustaheims]

So if it was maximizing total earnings over term was the player's key motivation, signing a max term contract when they hit RFA, not UFA would have been more lucrative overall.

Still, no. Coming off their ELC, players have less bargaining power to work with, and less of a track record. There's a reason why good players inevitably significant raises when they reach UFA status for the first time. Signing max term as an RFA means you sign for more years at less money than you would get as a UFA, and means you hit UFA status older, which typically brings down your UFA pay-day, either through lower per season salary, or through shorter contracts.

 

[TBLeafer]

But he didn't and even so, there's only one NHL'er that has the potential to earn close to what Ovechkin did over a 12 or 13 year term.

Plus even with Stammer earning more over his RFA years and signing an 11M max term 7 year, he's only in Towes territory, not Ovechkin territory.

If he got that he'd have $114.5M over 12 years.

So if it was maximizing total earnings over term was the player's key motivation, signing a max term contract when they hit RFA, not UFA would have been more lucrative overall.

1. That's only true if Stamkos gets 11 per. If he gets 12, he'll make 121.5 million over 12 years and almost certainly more than Ovechkin over 13 years.

2. Your comparison assumes that Tampa was willing to pay Stamkos the same way Washington paid Ovechkin.

Yes.  If he gets 12 he stands to make more than Ovechkin over a 13 year span. 

Presently, the only player who stands to earn more than Ovechkin over a 13 year span of actual NHL Salary since his ELC is Crosby at $129 900 000.  His final 4 years of actual earnings are 9M + 3M x 3 years.

Malkin comes in over the 13 year span mark with 10M less than Crosby.

 

[Kin]

Presently, the only player who stands to earn more than Ovechkin over a 13 year span of actual NHL Salary since his ELC is Crosby at $129 900 000.  His final 4 years of actual earnings are 9M + 3M x 3 years.

Which is more important than it seems. Front loading a contract makes it more lucrative over the course of it's length.

And, again, you're ignoring that Ovechkin makes as much as he does because he's Alex Ovechkin. Other RFA's, even Stamkos, don't necessarily have that leverage. As good as Stamkos was through three years, Ovechkin was better. He negotiated his extension after a 65 goal Hart Trophy season.

 

[TBLeafer]

Presently, the only player who stands to earn more than Ovechkin over a 13 year span of actual NHL Salary since his ELC is Crosby at $129 900 000.  His final 4 years of actual earnings are 9M + 3M x 3 years.

Which is more important than it seems. Front loading a contract makes it more lucrative over the course of it's length.

And, again, you're ignoring that Ovechkin makes as much as he does because he's Alex Ovechkin. Other RFA's, even Stamkos, don't necessarily have that leverage. As good as Stamkos was through three years, Ovechkin was better. He negotiated his extension after a 65 goal Hart Trophy season.

During this debate though, I still find it interesting discovering the true earnings rankings over a 13 year span since the NHL elite entered their RFA years.

1. Crosby - $129.9M
2. Ovechkin - $124M
3. Malkin - $119.9M
4/5. Toews/Kane - $115.5M
6. Kopitar - $105 600 000 (7 year + 5 of 8 in latest contract of actual salary)

Stamkos - $37.5M + ?

 

[bustaheims]

Something that also needs to be considered RE: Crosby is that he's taken less money than his market value on all his contracts. He's possibly left ~$50M on the table to have his cap hit be $8.7M for basically his entire career.

 

[TBLeafer]

Something that also needs to be considered RE: Crosby is that he's taken less money than his market value on all his contracts. He's possibly left ~$50M on the table to have his cap hit be $8.7M for basically his entire career.

Yep.  He left room for his team to be competitive and get Malkin signed to help his team stay competitive.

The cap has gone up some since he signed, taking up 12.4% of cap the year he did.

That's a 9M AAV contract today. Unfortunately Towes/Kane/Kopitar/Malkin have inflated the market, since Crosby's reasonable cap hit signing.

 

[Kin]

Another fair question. Where does Stamkos honestly rank among that group as a player? I'd definitely take him over Kane. The rest? I'm not so sure. 

 

[Bill_Berg]

What are the cap rules to front loading a contract? Why not give a guy 50 million in year one and then 1 million in the next 8?  The player makes less overall and the cap hit is less, but the 50 million up front can be worth more then slightly more overall spread out over years.

 

[Kin]

What are the cap rules to front loading a contract? Why not give a guy 50 million in year one and then 1 million in the next 8?  The player makes less overall and the cap hit is less, but the 50 million up front can be worth more then slightly more overall spread out over years.

I think it's something like no year of a deal can be less than 50% of the highest year.

 

[bustaheims]

What are the cap rules to front loading a contract? Why not give a guy 50 million in year one and then 1 million in the next 8?  The player makes less overall and the cap hit is less, but the 50 million up front can be worth more then slightly more overall spread out over years.

No season of the contract can be worth more than 20% of the cap ceiling in the year it's signed. So, for instance, this summer, the most money a team can offer a player in any individual season is $14.6M.

There are also a number of other rules to prevent exactly the kind of cap manipulations you're suggesting.

 

[bustaheims]

Another fair question. Where does Stamkos honestly rank among that group as a player? I'd definitely take him over Kane. The rest? I'm not so sure.

Honestly, I'm not 100% sure I'd take him over Kane - but, yeah, he's the only player on the list where Stamkos being the better choice is even a consideration.

 

[herman]

Another fair question. Where does Stamkos honestly rank among that group as a player? I'd definitely take him over Kane. The rest? I'm not so sure.

Honestly, I'm not 100% sure I'd take him over Kane - but, yeah, he's the only player on the list where Stamkos being the better choice is even a consideration.

I thought we already had this discussion.

 

[bustaheims]

Another fair question. Where does Stamkos honestly rank among that group as a player? I'd definitely take him over Kane. The rest? I'm not so sure.

Honestly, I'm not 100% sure I'd take him over Kane - but, yeah, he's the only player on the list where Stamkos being the better choice is even a consideration.

I thought we already had this discussion.

We're at 150 pages. It's certainly possible.

 

[Kin]

Another fair question. Where does Stamkos honestly rank among that group as a player? I'd definitely take him over Kane. The rest? I'm not so sure.

Honestly, I'm not 100% sure I'd take him over Kane - but, yeah, he's the only player on the list where Stamkos being the better choice is even a consideration.

I thought we already had this discussion.

Did we? I know we've talked about where Stamkos' game is relative to earlier years but I don't know if we've definitively tried to suss out his place among the game's elites.

But then again the thread's been going on for almost a year now so who knows?

 

[herman]

Another fair question. Where does Stamkos honestly rank among that group as a player? I'd definitely take him over Kane. The rest? I'm not so sure.

Honestly, I'm not 100% sure I'd take him over Kane - but, yeah, he's the only player on the list where Stamkos being the better choice is even a consideration.

I thought we already had this discussion.

Did we? I know we've talked about where Stamkos' game is relative to earlier years but I don't know if we've definitively tried to suss out his place among the game's elites.

But then again the thread's been going on for almost a year now so who knows?

Page 5/6's top 5 players to target for a 10/8 contract.

 

[Kin]

Page 5/6's top 5 players to target for a 10/8 contract.

Eh, that seems slightly different than trying to suss out his position compared to the league's top earners.