Steve Stamkos?

[Bill_Berg]

Right. So back to when last season ended and we Leafs fans declared that we need a bit of EVERYTHING LOL.

Well Stamkos is one proven piece of everything.

Stamkos is a great goal scorer, but, the other aspects of his game are much less compelling - which is part of why TBay moved him to the wing.

And, yes, the Leafs need a little of everything. They don't need it for next season though. And they also need it to be as cap efficient as possible, and they also need to know what they have in-house before they start committing to major pieces from outside, so that, when they bring in those pieces, they're the right pieces that fill the right needs. And, honestly, even if Matthews doesn't work out, I'm not convinced Stamkos is one of those pieces.

You don't have to be convinced.  There are only 2 players signed on the Leafs currently long term.  2.  Two pieces that they had determined to be core worthy going forward and they are forming their new core.

Stamkos is unquestionably a core worthy member on any team.  He would represent core member #3 on the Leafs.

And look at all that future cap beyond next season we'll have to form the team around them!

The Leafs are going to be major players this summer to find a major piece to fit into their core this summer.  Its gonna happen.  They've set up the cap to prepare for it, by clearing the former big contracts and faulty core.

If not Stamkos, its a player like Lucic, Okposo, Reimer, Yandle, Staal that they will use available cap on to improve their team.  Because they plan to undoubtedly improve their team this summer via UFA.

It might as well be Stamkos compared to the alternatives.

I don't think anyone is arguing that if the Leafs are going to go for it now in the short term, Stamkos is a key signing. But I don't think they are going to major players this summer at all, certainly not in the FA market. If I'm wrong and they do, they will try for Stamkos for sure, but what most people against the Stamkos signing are advocating is that it's not time to beef the team up with FAs, but to stay the course and set up a team with short term contacts that are tradeable while they assess what they have and determing the long term needs.

What you don't want is 4 years from now to have 3 first line centers, the oldest one being the one you're locked into, all taking up a huge chunk of the salary cap while having huge gaps on the back end and in goal.

Being a major player in UFA doesn't have to mean you are going after multiple players.  It can just mean you are going after big fish.

And Stamkos is a pretty big fish.

If they don't land him, they are probably going to use those cap dollars to upgrade on D and G instead like many here are suggesting.  Like going after Yandle and bringing back Reimer.

Sure, but that's assuming they're going to spend those cap dollars. I'm not convinced they will. Unless it's getting short term bad contracts and picks/prospects, or signing a bunch of tradeable assets to one/two year deals. I doubt they'll use any of the cap space to bring in veteran, long-term players. Not this summer.

 

[TBLeafer]

Yeah, none of those free agents seem appealing for the Leafs.

I'd be absolutely stunned if they offered any UFA but Stamkos a long-term deal this summer.

I wouldn't at all if they don't get Stamkos.

 

[Tigger]

I think that we're doing Matthews an injustice by throwing around words like "unknown" or "unproven" around him. He's the (mostly) undisputed 1st overall pick in a draft that looks pretty decent. He's a centre with legitimate franchise/cornerstone potential. I know that he's not Connor McDavid, but do you think that the Oilers were running around trying to fix their centre position after he was picked just because he hadn't played a game yet? Of course not.  I get that we've never had a prospect of this calibre before so it might be difficult to understand. But it wouldn't be a mistake at all for the Leafs to plan the growth and rise of this franchise with him as their main piece.

So I really can't stress this enough: our centre ice position, regardless of the age of two of the three projected main pieces, is in no way, shape, or form a weakness or organizational need.

Sure, same reason we're not talking about Matthews seeing any AHL time, but he's not a number one yet though he likely will be, probably just a matter of time ( and not a lot of that ), still, I want to see that curve before I go saying 'yeah, he's the next Sakic' with any clout and I imagine the Leafs do too.

 

[Tigger]

I think that we're doing Matthews an injustice by throwing around words like "unknown" or "unproven" around him. He's the (mostly) undisputed 1st overall pick in a draft that looks pretty decent. He's a centre with legitimate franchise/cornerstone potential. I know that he's not Connor McDavid, but do you think that the Oilers were running around trying to fix their centre position after he was picked just because he hadn't played a game yet? Of course not.  I get that we've never had a prospect of this calibre before so it might be difficult to understand. But it wouldn't be a mistake at all for the Leafs to plan the growth and rise of this franchise with him as their main piece.

So I really can't stress this enough: our centre ice position, regardless of the age of two of the three projected main pieces, is in no way, shape, or form a weakness or organizational need.

I completely agree "unproven" is a bit of an injustice where Matthews is concerned.

I just wouldn't mind in the slightest as a year over year improvement of the team, having one position where we lacked depth in, a VERY important position I might add, to being UBER deep in it the following season.  So much so that a top flight young center has to move to the wing or pushed down to the bottom six.

What a WONDERFUL problem to have on the Leafs, finally.

I've never seen it before in my lifetime on this team.

I know its been mentioned in this thread already, but why isn't this a main arguing point for bringing in Stamkos...

It allows the Leafs to trade a young and very talented player or prospect like a Nylander, Kadri, Marner, in order to shore up weaknesses at other positions on this team. That in itself is a fantastic reason to sign Stamkos for nothing but cap space and dollars. Suddenly your not only strong at center, but you have considerable options to improve your defense as well.

It's a consideration, sure, but I don't think it's high on the list. I think you want to try to get those main pieces internally as much as possible and try to keep your drafted talent pool deep and wide. I mean, any position of strength can be looked at that way, like we're loosely talking about using JVR to get a young top dman, signing Vesey might have that flavour to it too, just that it isn't easy to do or plan around.

 

[Tigger]

Yeah, none of those free agents seem appealing for the Leafs.

I'd be absolutely stunned if they offered any UFA but Stamkos a long-term deal this summer.

Me too.

 

[Kin]

I think that we're doing Matthews an injustice by throwing around words like "unknown" or "unproven" around him. He's the (mostly) undisputed 1st overall pick in a draft that looks pretty decent. He's a centre with legitimate franchise/cornerstone potential. I know that he's not Connor McDavid, but do you think that the Oilers were running around trying to fix their centre position after he was picked just because he hadn't played a game yet? Of course not.  I get that we've never had a prospect of this calibre before so it might be difficult to understand. But it wouldn't be a mistake at all for the Leafs to plan the growth and rise of this franchise with him as their main piece.

So I really can't stress this enough: our centre ice position, regardless of the age of two of the three projected main pieces, is in no way, shape, or form a weakness or organizational need.

I think that when it comes to someone like Matthews calling him unknown or unproven is really just a statement of fact. It's not so much a questioning of whether or not he can or will be a good player but rather that we don't know how good and that we don't know exactly what sort of good player he'll be.

So while I agree that you can say "Well, Matthews is likely to be a very good NHL player in 5 years so we don't have to be desperate to add a Center" I think where it gets dicey is when you try to get any more specific like that by saying he's going to be just as good and extremely similar to Jonathan Toews or if you're already convinced he'll play great with Marner or what have you.

 

[bustaheims]

The Leafs are going to be major players this summer to find a major piece to fit into their core this summer.  Its gonna happen.  They've set up the cap to prepare for it, by clearing the former big contracts and faulty core.

I gotta disagree with this. Once you factor in all the potential bonuses the Leafs need to account for so they don't have to deal with a cap overage next summer, unless they move a couple more contracts, their cap position this summer is pretty ordinary. They're setup well for future summers, yes, but this summer? While they're likely not in any impending danger, they're not really setup well to be major players.

 

[herman]

I know its been mentioned in this thread already, but why isn't this a main arguing point for bringing in Stamkos...

It allows the Leafs to trade a young and very talented player or prospect like a Nylander, Kadri, Marner, in order to shore up weaknesses at other positions on this team. That in itself is a fantastic reason to sign Stamkos for nothing but cap space and dollars. Suddenly your not only strong at center, but you have considerable options to improve your defense as well.

This sounds like a very Blue Jays thing to do, and could very well be similar to something the Leafs do later in the build when we have a better idea of who fits and who does not. Right now? Just to justify purchasing Stamkos? Of whom I've yet to see a compelling argument that he fulfills a legitimate requirement for the team? Such a move and justification does not fit in my interpretation of a patient rebuild through drafting and development.

 

[Kin]

I know its been mentioned in this thread already, but why isn't this a main arguing point for bringing in Stamkos...

It allows the Leafs to trade a young and very talented player or prospect like a Nylander, Kadri, Marner, in order to shore up weaknesses at other positions on this team. That in itself is a fantastic reason to sign Stamkos for nothing but cap space and dollars. Suddenly your not only strong at center, but you have considerable options to improve your defense as well.

Because banking on another team having a player the Leafs want at a position of weakness, them wanting to trade him to the Leafs and them wanting what the Leafs have to offer is nowhere near as likely or desirable(because it's entirely out of the Leafs' control) as simply having the cap space to go out and sign a UFA defenseman or goalie when the time is right.

And, and we really did just go over this, there's a world of difference between having a bunch of really good centers and having a bunch of really good prospects at center. If you sign Stamkos and only one of your better C prospects develops then you don't have a major piece to trade from the position without hurting your depth and you've lost a lot of the cap flexibility you'd need to go out and sign a UFA defenseman.

If you're confident you're going to need to upgrade in one particular area, it's better to save the money to address it directly than to bank on the trade you want being available. Especially in the current environment where big trades are so rare.

 

[bustaheims]

This sounds like a very Blue Jays thing to do, and could very well be similar to something the Leafs do later in the build when we have a better idea of who fits and who does not. Right now? Just to justify purchasing Stamkos? Of whom I've yet to see a compelling argument that he fulfills a legitimate requirement for the team? Such a move and justification does not fit in my interpretation of a patient rebuild through drafting and development.

Yeah. That's also very much a next phase kind of move.

 

[TBLeafer]

Right. So back to when last season ended and we Leafs fans declared that we need a bit of EVERYTHING LOL.

Well Stamkos is one proven piece of everything.

Stamkos is a great goal scorer, but, the other aspects of his game are much less compelling - which is part of why TBay moved him to the wing.

And, yes, the Leafs need a little of everything. They don't need it for next season though. And they also need it to be as cap efficient as possible, and they also need to know what they have in-house before they start committing to major pieces from outside, so that, when they bring in those pieces, they're the right pieces that fill the right needs. And, honestly, even if Matthews doesn't work out, I'm not convinced Stamkos is one of those pieces.

You don't have to be convinced.  There are only 2 players signed on the Leafs currently long term.  2.  Two pieces that they had determined to be core worthy going forward and they are forming their new core.

Stamkos is unquestionably a core worthy member on any team.  He would represent core member #3 on the Leafs.

And look at all that future cap beyond next season we'll have to form the team around them!

The Leafs are going to be major players this summer to find a major piece to fit into their core this summer.  Its gonna happen.  They've set up the cap to prepare for it, by clearing the former big contracts and faulty core.

If not Stamkos, its a player like Lucic, Okposo, Reimer, Yandle, Staal that they will use available cap on to improve their team.  Because they plan to undoubtedly improve their team this summer via UFA.

It might as well be Stamkos compared to the alternatives.

I don't think anyone is arguing that if the Leafs are going to go for it now in the short term, Stamkos is a key signing. But I don't think they are going to major players this summer at all, certainly not in the FA market. If I'm wrong and they do, they will try for Stamkos for sure, but what most people against the Stamkos signing are advocating is that it's not time to beef the team up with FAs, but to stay the course and set up a team with short term contacts that are tradeable while they assess what they have and determing the long term needs.

What you don't want is 4 years from now to have 3 first line centers, the oldest one being the one you're locked into, all taking up a huge chunk of the salary cap while having huge gaps on the back end and in goal.

Being a major player in UFA doesn't have to mean you are going after multiple players.  It can just mean you are going after big fish.

And Stamkos is a pretty big fish.

If they don't land him, they are probably going to use those cap dollars to upgrade on D and G instead like many here are suggesting.  Like going after Yandle and bringing back Reimer.

Sure, but that's assuming they're going to spend those cap dollars. I'm not convinced they will. Unless it's getting short term bad contracts and picks/prospects, or signing a bunch of tradeable assets to one/two year deals. I doubt they'll use any of the cap space to bring in veteran, long-term players. Not this summer.

I don't see them sitting as idle as you think if they don't sign Stamkos.  Which is why I hope they sign Stamkos.

 

[TBLeafer]

I know its been mentioned in this thread already, but why isn't this a main arguing point for bringing in Stamkos...

It allows the Leafs to trade a young and very talented player or prospect like a Nylander, Kadri, Marner, in order to shore up weaknesses at other positions on this team. That in itself is a fantastic reason to sign Stamkos for nothing but cap space and dollars. Suddenly your not only strong at center, but you have considerable options to improve your defense as well.

This sounds like a very Blue Jays thing to do, and could very well be similar to something the Leafs do later in the build when we have a better idea of who fits and who does not. Right now? Just to justify purchasing Stamkos? Of whom I've yet to see a compelling argument that he fulfills a legitimate requirement for the team? Such a move and justification does not fit in my interpretation of a patient rebuild through drafting and development.

What RL is saying though wouldn't be close to happening right away though.  It would happen with Stamkos on the team only when the team is ready to compete for the cup.

 

[herman]

This sounds like a very Blue Jays thing to do, and could very well be similar to something the Leafs do later in the build when we have a better idea of who fits and who does not. Right now? Just to justify purchasing Stamkos? Of whom I've yet to see a compelling argument that he fulfills a legitimate requirement for the team? Such a move and justification does not fit in my interpretation of a patient rebuild through drafting and development.

Yeah. That's also very much a next phase kind of move.

Of course all of this is not to say we won't entertain offers if they crop up. If someone comes a courtin' with a 21-23 year old defenseman projected to be a #1 some day (and his analytics pass muster with our group), that might be a trade to take a very long look at.

As Nik pointed out above, you can't build your team based on a plan that involves other teams (or specific free agents) because those are not under your control. You can, however, take advantage of situations if they come up, and the best way to do that is to maintain financial flexibility and develop your foundation and prospect value as high as possible.

 

[TBLeafer]

The Leafs are going to be major players this summer to find a major piece to fit into their core this summer.  Its gonna happen.  They've set up the cap to prepare for it, by clearing the former big contracts and faulty core.

I gotta disagree with this. Once you factor in all the potential bonuses the Leafs need to account for so they don't have to deal with a cap overage next summer, unless they move a couple more contracts, their cap position this summer is pretty ordinary. They're setup well for future summers, yes, but this summer? While they're likely not in any impending danger, they're not really setup well to be major players.

They are in the sense that they can afford Stamkos or his equivalent with two lesser players that address other established "needs", D and G.

This crop of NHL UFA's is just too good for the Leafs to just sit idle and pass them all up if they miss out on Stamkos.

 

[Kin]

It doesn't seem like that good of a free agent crop. Behind Stamkos you don't have much in the way of top pairing defensemen or legit #1 goalies and the best forwards are either Lucic, who seems bound to get way overpaid and is a bad style/age risk or Okposo who might not be that great away from Tavares.

 

[Tigger]

The Leafs are going to be major players this summer to find a major piece to fit into their core this summer.  Its gonna happen.  They've set up the cap to prepare for it, by clearing the former big contracts and faulty core.

I gotta disagree with this. Once you factor in all the potential bonuses the Leafs need to account for so they don't have to deal with a cap overage next summer, unless they move a couple more contracts, their cap position this summer is pretty ordinary. They're setup well for future summers, yes, but this summer? While they're likely not in any impending danger, they're not really setup well to be major players.

They are in the sense that they can afford Stamkos or his equivalent with two lesser players that address other established "needs", D and G.

This crop of NHL UFA's is just too good for the Leafs to just sit idle and pass them all up if they miss out on Stamkos.

It's really not a very good year for free agency.

 

[herman]

I know its been mentioned in this thread already, but why isn't this a main arguing point for bringing in Stamkos...

It allows the Leafs to trade a young and very talented player or prospect like a Nylander, Kadri, Marner, in order to shore up weaknesses at other positions on this team. That in itself is a fantastic reason to sign Stamkos for nothing but cap space and dollars. Suddenly your not only strong at center, but you have considerable options to improve your defense as well.

This sounds like a very Blue Jays thing to do, and could very well be similar to something the Leafs do later in the build when we have a better idea of who fits and who does not. Right now? Just to justify purchasing Stamkos? Of whom I've yet to see a compelling argument that he fulfills a legitimate requirement for the team? Such a move and justification does not fit in my interpretation of a patient rebuild through drafting and development.

What RL is saying though wouldn't be close to happening right away though.  It would happen with Stamkos on the team only when the team is ready to compete for the cup.

If Stamkos was still 21-23 and for some reason hit free agency? I'll be right with you, begging the team to sign him.

Moves that accelerate builds the way Stamkos would beget further moves that continue the acceleration. See 2013-15 Blue Jays. See 1990s-2000s Leafs. So many examples...

Now we watch from afar as Syndergaard puts the fear of God into his catcher every time he misses a catch, and Steen suit up for a perennial contender, and Rask hoist the Stanley Cup a few years ago, etc.

 

[bustaheims]

This crop of NHL UFA's is just too good for the Leafs to just sit idle and pass them all up if they miss out on Stamkos.

Outside of Stamkos, it's a pretty typical UFA class - especially once a number of them inevitably re-sign with their current teams in the coming weeks.

 

[TBLeafer]

It doesn't seem like that good of a free agent crop. Behind Stamkos you don't have much in the way of top pairing defensemen or legit #1 goalies and the best forwards are either Lucic, who seems bound to get way overpaid and is a bad style/age risk or Okposo who might not be that great away from Tavares.

Okposo would probably look as good with Matthews as he does with Tavares.  Reimer is legit, whether Leafs fans want to admit it or not.  We all saw what he could do playing for a good team down the stretch.  He put up much better numbers than Jones, during that time.  He also squeaked into the top 30 in GP, making him a top 30 goalie in the league and is still young enough by goalie shelf life standards to be a benefit to the team that signs him for years to come.

That is for another debate though.

Yandle is better than at least half of the Leafs D presently.

 

[Kin]

Okposo would probably look as good with Matthews as he does with Tavares.  Reimer is legit, whether Leafs fans want to admit it or not.  We all saw what he could do playing for a good team down the stretch.  He put up much better numbers than Jones, during that time.  He also squeaked into the top 30 in GP, making him a top 30 goalie in the league and is still young enough by goalie shelf life standards to be a benefit to the team that signs him for years to come.

That is for another debate though.

Yandle is better than at least half of the Leafs D presently.

So a second pairing blueliner even on this crappy defense, a winger who only looks particularly good if you play him with a terrific C and a goalie we saw for four years of inconsistent play?

Yeah, I'll stick with not that great a group.