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[Chris]

50% and he's probably worth at best a pick, and mediocre roster player.

Why would a mediocre roster player be worth a pick and a mediocre roster player? It's not like they're trading Richard Panik here.

Sorry, I meant a mediocre roster player with a substantial cap hit.

Something like David Clarkson + 5th round pick for Phil Kessel + 50% salary retention.

That's one of the most ridiculous things I've read on this forum.

 

[Al14]

50% and he's probably worth at best a pick, and mediocre roster player.

Why would a mediocre roster player be worth a pick and a mediocre roster player? It's not like they're trading Richard Panik here.

Sorry, I meant a mediocre roster player with a substantial cap hit.

Something like David Clarkson + 5th round pick for Phil Kessel + 50% salary retention.

That's one of the most ridiculous things I've read on this forum.

No kidding!  Hugely ridiculous!

Like it or not, Kessel is a premiere scorer in the NHL.  He may be a tad overpaid, having a bad season, but, surrounded by a much better set of teammates, he would be explosive IMHO.

There is no requirement to simply give him away for crap!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

50% and he's probably worth at best a pick, and mediocre roster player.

Why would a mediocre roster player be worth a pick and a mediocre roster player? It's not like they're trading Richard Panik here.

Sorry, I meant a mediocre roster player with a substantial cap hit.

Something like David Clarkson + 5th round pick for Phil Kessel + 50% salary retention.

That's one of the most ridiculous things I've read on this forum.

No kidding!  Hugely ridiculous!

Like it or not, Kessel is a premiere scorer in the NHL.  He may be a tad overpaid, having a bad season, but, surrounded by a much better set of teammates, he would be explosive IMHO.

There is no requirement to simply give him away for crap!

Seriously LK. Come on man, what games are you watching? You seriously think that Columbus would throw in a 5th round pick too? Maybe a 7th. Maybe.

 

[Al14]

When Boston beats Buffalo tonight the Leafs will officially be eliminated from the playoffs.

Boston loses to Buffalo in the shootout! 

 

[Kin]

When Boston beats Buffalo tonight the Leafs will officially be eliminated from the playoffs.

Boston loses to Buffalo in the shootout! 

Still eliminated the Leafs.

 

[Al14]

When Boston beats Buffalo tonight the Leafs will officially be eliminated from the playoffs.

Boston loses to Buffalo in the shootout! 

Still eliminated the Leafs.

Leafs eliminated themselves months ago! 

 

[cw]

In my opinion:

If they eat some of his contract - such that the net is his fair contract value, then they should get full pop for his talent value in prospects/picks.

If they don't eat some of his contract - such that the net is higher than his fair contract value, then they should get a discounted return on his value in prospects/picks to make up for that.

What do you think is a fair contract value for Kessel? (in other words, how much needs to be retained?)

I'm honestly not sure - in part because of the contract length. As well, it's a limited no trade deal - fewer teams bidding.

My guess is the best case would be $1-2 mil/yr eaten by the Leafs (because it has to be over the life of the deal). If they did that, then they'd be more entitled to a respectable talent return. No discount right now and my guess is they won't get much in return - if they can even move him.

I'd move Phaneuf before I'd move Phil. I think they have a better chance of getting a fair return right now.

I don't see them being able to shed all of their core this summer. Trading in this league is too tough and GMs are increasingly shying away from bad contracts. I was a little shocked no one would touch Mike Richards - washed up at age 30 in part because of his contract (4 years left at $5.x/yr).

We're fans. Our tendency is to hope for the best and give our players the benefit of the doubt, etc. Unfortunately, the rest of the league doesn't usually see it our way.

One other thing that bugged me after I reviewed the Boston trade: the Bruins had been trying to peddle Kessel for more than a year according to a few reports (some by Boston reporters I thought were fairly credible). The benching, Kessel's style and feud with Julien made sense as a trigger.

At the '09 deadline, they allegedly tried to get Perron from the Blues with him. During the summer, leading up to the Sep '09 deal with Toronto, Nashville and the Rangers were supposedly interested. But
"There wasn't a team, but for one, that was willing to make a firm offer and willing to pay the player the amount of money he was requesting," Chiarelli said.
Burke was the only one to make a firm offer that effectively "bought" Kessel.

The only one. Think about that.

If this was Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Stamkos, Kane. Toews, Weber, Keith, Subban, Price, Lundqvist, Rask, etc - you know, a real top 10 type of player, then I expect more teams would have made an offer. But they didn't exactly fall over themselves trying to get Kessel, did they.

So after this crash-and-burn, I-m-not-in-the-mood fiasco of a season, I honestly wonder if anyone will want him with this contract. I realize he's an elite scorer but he apparently comes with seven years more baggage too that four NHL coaches haven't been able to straighten out. The league has done this dance courting Kessel before and they've seen the results since. All that glitters here is not gold.

I hope they fleece someone and get a good return but I have my doubts they will this time around.

 

[Kin]

The only one. Think about that.

If this was Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Stamkos, Kane. Toews, Weber, Keith, Subban, Price, Lundqvist, Rask, etc - you know, a real top 10 type of player, then I expect more teams would have made an offer. But they didn't exactly fall over themselves trying to get Kessel, did they.

I know you've ignored all of the posts pointing out that maybe you shouldn't exclusively judge Phil Kessel from his last year in Boston but again that was six years ago. Kessel was 21 years old. If Shea Weber were available as a 21 year old he'd be coming off of a year where he was in the AHL for the most part. Lundqvist was in the SEL.

Kessel's gotten better since then. He's been one of the best scorers in the league over the last three seasons despite playing with a pretty terrible center. He scores against good teams. George W. Bush is no longer president.

 

[ZBBM]

This is a fascinating debate about what they might or might not get for Kessel.  But cw's basic point is unassailable: the reason we're having this debate at all is because there are enough doubts about Kessel, on several fronts, that he's not a slam-dunk top 10 player.  Not even close.  But the price we paid to get him was top-10, and he's getting paid now like a top-10. 

 

[Kin]

This is a fascinating debate about what they might or might not get for Kessel.  But cw's basic point is unassailable: the reason we're having this debate at all is because there are enough doubts about Kessel, on several fronts, that he's not a slam-dunk top 10 player.  Not even close.  But the price we paid to get him was top-10, and he's getting paid now like a top-10.

That's not really true and, to be honest, that's just being purposefully obtuse about the way that the last CBA affected the current salary structure. Kessel's salary will not reflect what a top 10 talent will earn as a UFA going forward. We've seen that with the deals that have been signed since then. The best players in the league are going to have cap hits that will be 15-20% higher than Kessel's.

Johnny Boychuk just got 7 million a year. You're dreaming if you think a top 10 talent would go for 8 million as a UFA.

 

[cw]

The only one. Think about that.

If this was Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Stamkos, Kane. Toews, Weber, Keith, Subban, Price, Lundqvist, Rask, etc - you know, a real top 10 type of player, then I expect more teams would have made an offer. But they didn't exactly fall over themselves trying to get Kessel, did they.

I know you've ignored all of the posts pointing out that maybe you shouldn't exclusively judge Phil Kessel from his last year in Boston but again that was six years ago.

That's a gigantic straw man of pure nonsense if I ever saw one:

"exclusively judge Phil Kessel from his last year in Boston "
I raised the fall of Kessel in his draft standing - before he became a Bruin (and provided the links).
I raised the trouble Kessel had in Boston before his final season there (benching, healthy scratch in playoffs, Julien on his case, etc) and that they tried to trade him before his final season there
I raised concerns about the Kessel trade on this site when it happened in 2009 and reviewed some of that recently
I've raised the problems Kessel has had with Leafs coaches since
I've raised the lack of accolades a top 10 player would normally receive that Kessel has not - making the case that as a top 10 paid NHLer, he's over paid and why
I've raised the concerns over Kessel's play in Toronto prior to this season
And I've raised concerns about Kessel's play this season

I've also pointed out that I'm far from alone in raising the things I listed above

Now you're trying to spin some nonsense about how I "shouldn't exclusively judge Phil Kessel from his last year in Boston" ? Are you really that desperate to just post any nonsense that enters your noggin in response to a post? And you hypocritically allege I ignored posts - which is precisely what you're doing when you make such an allegation. Because the straw man you're fabricating has absolutely no foundation in reality. None whatsoever.

 

[ZBBM]

This is a fascinating debate about what they might or might not get for Kessel.  But cw's basic point is unassailable: the reason we're having this debate at all is because there are enough doubts about Kessel, on several fronts, that he's not a slam-dunk top 10 player.  Not even close.  But the price we paid to get him was top-10, and he's getting paid now like a top-10.

That's not really true and, to be honest, that's just being purposefully obtuse about the way that the last CBA affected the current salary structure. Kessel's salary will not reflect what a top 10 talent will earn as a UFA going forward. We've seen that with the deals that have been signed since then. The best players in the league are going to have cap hits that will be 15-20% higher than Kessel's.

Johnny Boychuk just got 7 million a year. You're dreaming if you think a top 10 talent would go for 8 million as a UFA.

Believe me, I am not being purposefully obtuse about the CBA salary structure because I have no idea how the CBA works.  Anyway, my jibe is that $8m and north is top-10like in today's world of right now, currently.

 

[Kin]

Now you're trying to spin some nonsense about how I "shouldn't exclusively judge Phil Kessel from his last year in Boston" ?

You're right. That was inaccurate. You exclusively judge Kessel on his one year in Boston when it suits the incredibly narrow transparent point you're trying to make and judge him over a longer period when it does the same.

In his 36 goal season in Boston, 29 or so were against non playoff teams. If you keep him to the outside and play him physically - make him battle for the puck - which he often won't do, he can be shut down fairly easily.

It's a nice skill to have on the roster but in the tougher games, those are the guys who tend to fade first when scoring gets tough.

How many of his 21 points in 22 playoff games were against playoff teams?  How many of his 29 points in 33 senior international competition games were against tough competition?  His 43 in 26 Junior international competitions? (I figure if we're going back 8 years to question his character we might as well go back even further to be just that much more ridiculous)

15 of his goals last season were against playoff teams.  9 of 20 in 2012-13.  18 of 37 in 11-12. Higher if you include teams that just missed out.  How many is high enough?  How many do other scorers get?  Do goals against those teams count less? 

Or do his numbers from when he was 21 matter more?  It's such a hilarious misrepresentation to bring up stats from 8 years ago to say he doesn't perform in big situations.

 

[Kin]

Believe me, I am not being purposefully obtuse about the CBA salary structure because I have no idea how the CBA works.  Anyway, my jibe is that $8m and north is top-10like in today's world of right now, currently.

Right now it's the 10th highest cap hit in the NHL. That will no longer be true as soon as Kane and Toews' new contracts kick in. There isn't a single top tier pending UFA who's signed a long term deal since the new CBA that's been for less than what Kessel's getting.

Realistically, what do you think Stamkos will sign for? What do you think he would be offered as a UFA? That's the context you need to look at Kessel's deal in. His contract was not a top 10 player sort of contract.

 

[cw]

This is a fascinating debate about what they might or might not get for Kessel.  But cw's basic point is unassailable: the reason we're having this debate at all is because there are enough doubts about Kessel, on several fronts, that he's not a slam-dunk top 10 player.  Not even close.  But the price we paid to get him was top-10, and he's getting paid now like a top-10.

That's not really true and, to be honest, that's just being purposefully obtuse about the way that the last CBA affected the current salary structure. Kessel's salary will not reflect what a top 10 talent will earn as a UFA going forward. We've seen that with the deals that have been signed since then. The best players in the league are going to have cap hits that will be 15-20% higher than Kessel's.

Johnny Boychuk just got 7 million a year. You're dreaming if you think a top 10 talent would go for 8 million as a UFA.

He was about 8th highest paid when he signed. Since then, a year and a half later, he's slipped a couple of places. He's currently (just) behind this group (the top 9):
Ovechkin, Alex
Malkin, Evgeni
Subban, P.K.
Crosby, Sidney
Perry, Corey
Lundqvist, Henrik
Giroux, Claude
Staal, Eric
Getzlaf, Ryan

And none of these guys below him, for example, will pass him before the end of 2018 because I think they're all signed to at least then:
Weber, Shea
Suter, Ryan
Doughty, Drew
Parise, Zach
Nash, Rick
Chara, Zdeno
Kopitar, Anze
Bergeron, Patrice
Krejci, David
Carter, Jeff
Seguin, Tyler
Zetterberg, Henrik
Backstrom, Nicklas
Price, Carey
etc

Stamkos, Steven who is also behind Kessel will very likely pass him when he signs for 2017
Kane & Toews will pass him in 2016.

Kessel isn't going to slip down that list quickly

That's just a sampling.

 

[Kin]

And none of these guys below him, for example, will pass him before the end of 2018 because I think they're all signed to at least then:
Weber, Shea
Suter, Ryan
Doughty, Drew
Parise, Zach
Nash, Rick
Chara, Zdeno
Kopitar, Anze
Bergeron, Patrice
Krejci, David
Carter, Jeff
Seguin, Tyler
Zetterberg, Henrik
Backstrom, Nicklas
Price, Carey
etc

My goodness. It's almost as if there were a type of contract available under the old CBA that allowed players to lock into incredibly long contracts at artificially low cap hits.

 

[cw]

Now you're trying to spin some nonsense about how I "shouldn't exclusively judge Phil Kessel from his last year in Boston" ?

You're right. That was inaccurate. You exclusively judge Kessel on his one year in Boston when it suits the incredibly narrow transparent point you're trying to make and judge him over a longer period when it does the same.

Another straw man.

I happen to cite something specific that happened in 2009 as an example. And then I cite something that didn't happen in 2009 and somehow that makes your point?

More desperate nonsense.

 

[Kin]

I happen to cite something specific that happened in 2009 as an example.

An example of something that all subsequent seasons and data refutes. You knew there was more data on which to judge Kessel from a "how often does he score against playoff teams vs. non-playoff teams" and you chose to cite one season, six years ago, that runs contrary to what happened since. Again, transparent and narrow. Kessel has not feasted exclusively on bad teams and people saw through your attempt to paint that picture.

You've lost any and all sense of objectivity on this one. I don't know why that is and I don't know what point you're trying to make with this campaign against the "Kessel is a top 10 player" straw man but I'll at least call it what it is.

 

[cw]

And none of these guys below him, for example, will pass him before the end of 2018 because I think they're all signed to at least then:
Weber, Shea
Suter, Ryan
Doughty, Drew
Parise, Zach
Nash, Rick
Chara, Zdeno
Kopitar, Anze
Bergeron, Patrice
Krejci, David
Carter, Jeff
Seguin, Tyler
Zetterberg, Henrik
Backstrom, Nicklas
Price, Carey
etc

My goodness. It's almost as if there were a type of contract available under the old CBA that allowed players to lock into incredibly long contracts at artificially low cap hits.

In about 1/3 of the cases, there were deals done longer than Kessel's 8 years. But in 2/3rd of the cases, they were Kessel's 8 year length or less.

Nice try. But that doesn't explain it.

 

[Kin]

In about 1/3 of the cases, there were deals done longer than Kessel's 8 years. But in 2/3rd of the cases, they were Kessel's 8 year length or less.

Nice try. But that doesn't explain it.

Uh huh. And how many of those shorter deals were given to players who were pending UFA's? Comparing UFA prices to RFA deals is bogus and you know it.

I mean, it's not that difficult a concept. Compare Kessel's deal to the ones signed by the real top players after the last lockout as pending UFA's. There is going to be as much distance between Patrick Kane's annual cap hit(1.06 ppg the last three seasons with Toews) and Kessel(.93 ppg the last three seasons with Bozak) as there is between Kessel and Dave Bolland(.46 ppg the last three seasons). Kane isn't a defensive dynamo. Kane, I think it's safe to say, has some issues with character. Kane wouldn't, I don't think, be on most people's list for top 10 players in the league either.

Kessel's contract is not paying him what a top 10 player in this league will sign for under the existing CBA. There's just no way around that.