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The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

I like that.

Just a 13th-round selection in 2012 out of Florida State, Travis has produced markedly above-average batting marks at every level to which he?s been exposed, recording both excellent plate-discipline numbers and also high BABIP figures. The result: a slash line of .323/.388/.487 line in over 1,000 minor-league plate appearances. According to Steamer?s computer math, Travis ? who enters his age-24 season next April ? already profiles as a league-average hitter. That?s valuable for a player who also appears likely to handle second base.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-10-prospects-for-2015-by-projected-war/

Baseball America ranked him Tigers best prospect.
 
Potvin29 said:
I like that.

Just a 13th-round selection in 2012 out of Florida State, Travis has produced markedly above-average batting marks at every level to which he?s been exposed, recording both excellent plate-discipline numbers and also high BABIP figures. The result: a slash line of .323/.388/.487 line in over 1,000 minor-league plate appearances. According to Steamer?s computer math, Travis ? who enters his age-24 season next April ? already profiles as a league-average hitter. That?s valuable for a player who also appears likely to handle second base.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-10-prospects-for-2015-by-projected-war/

Baseball America ranked him Tigers best prospect.

Detroit was converting him to an outfielder.
 
L K said:
Potvin29 said:
I like that.

Just a 13th-round selection in 2012 out of Florida State, Travis has produced markedly above-average batting marks at every level to which he?s been exposed, recording both excellent plate-discipline numbers and also high BABIP figures. The result: a slash line of .323/.388/.487 line in over 1,000 minor-league plate appearances. According to Steamer?s computer math, Travis ? who enters his age-24 season next April ? already profiles as a league-average hitter. That?s valuable for a player who also appears likely to handle second base.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-10-prospects-for-2015-by-projected-war/

Baseball America ranked him Tigers best prospect.

Detroit was converting him to an outfielder.

Just because of organizational need and he only played 2 games as an OF.
 
Potvin29 said:
I like that.

Just a 13th-round selection in 2012 out of Florida State, Travis has produced markedly above-average batting marks at every level to which he?s been exposed, recording both excellent plate-discipline numbers and also high BABIP figures. The result: a slash line of .323/.388/.487 line in over 1,000 minor-league plate appearances. According to Steamer?s computer math, Travis ? who enters his age-24 season next April ? already profiles as a league-average hitter. That?s valuable for a player who also appears likely to handle second base.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-10-prospects-for-2015-by-projected-war/

Baseball America ranked him Tigers best prospect.

He is 23 and only in AA. Also, Law called him a "non-prospect." Tigers' prospect cupboard is awful.

That being said, Gose has been pretty terrible so I guess it's a pretty minor move.
 
Andy007 said:
Potvin29 said:
I like that.

Just a 13th-round selection in 2012 out of Florida State, Travis has produced markedly above-average batting marks at every level to which he?s been exposed, recording both excellent plate-discipline numbers and also high BABIP figures. The result: a slash line of .323/.388/.487 line in over 1,000 minor-league plate appearances. According to Steamer?s computer math, Travis ? who enters his age-24 season next April ? already profiles as a league-average hitter. That?s valuable for a player who also appears likely to handle second base.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-10-prospects-for-2015-by-projected-war/

Baseball America ranked him Tigers best prospect.

He is 23 and only in AA. Also, Law called him a "non-prospect." Tigers' prospect cupboard is awful.

That being said, Gose has been pretty terrible so I guess it's a pretty minor move.

What about Fangraphs projection?

And yeah, Gose isn't going to do much.

Here's another Fangraphs write-up after the trade:

Travis isn?t known for his physical tools, but he?s shown an intriguing combination of high contact skills with some power, which is a pretty rare trait for a middle infielder. And it?s not just the numbers: Baseball America?s Clint Longenecker penned a nice piece on him last year explaining why the results might carry over to the big league level.

If Travis actually is something like a league average hitter and can play average defense at second base, then the Blue Jays are going to be quite happy with this deal. Second base was a massive hole for them last year, and even an average player would be a significant upgrade, especially if he?s as big league ready in 2014 as Steamer thinks he might be.

Of course, Steamer could be wrong. Maybe Travis is more mediocre hitter than average one, in which case he?d look like the +1 to +2 WAR player that Gose also appears to be, making this deal more about two teams trading from depth for things they need more. But while no projection system is perfect, Steamer is a very good forecasting tool, and it is basing its optimism on the success of similar kinds of players. After all, those who don?t think much of Travis? future probably also weren?t big fans of Martin Prado either, and he?s averaged +2.8 WAR per 600 plate appearances over a pretty solid career. Omar Infante fits the mold too.

There are enough examples of guys like Travis who turn into real players that the Blue Jays could actually have made a pretty nice deal here. If the projections on Travis aren?t totally bonkers, six years of an average (or maybe even slightly above average) middle infielder is a nifty return for a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder. Of course, there?s a chance that Travis is more Marcus Semien than Martin Prado, and in a year, maybe we won?t even remember that this trade happened.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/blue-jays-and-tigers-make-minor-trade-that-might-matter/
 
Unfortunately, Gose's bat never caught up with his other tools, so, he's basically a 4th outfielder type unless he's on a team that has above average bats in the other 8 spots in the order. Travis may not turn into anything, but, the Jays are seriously lacking in MLB ready middle infield prospects . . . well, really, they're seriously lacking in MLB ready fielding prospects.
 
I just don't see how a player could be "major league ready" when he hasn't even played AAA yet (at age 23, nonetheless).
 
Andy007 said:
He is 23 and only in AA. Also, Law called him a "non-prospect." Tigers' prospect cupboard is awful.

That being said, Gose has been pretty terrible so I guess it's a pretty minor move.

I don't think being 23 is a fair knock against the guy.  He's had 2 full professional seasons and has had pretty good success in both of them as well as a decent showing in short season in 2012 when he was drafted.  You are right that being the #1 prospect for the Tigers means very little when we are talking about a team that has made a number of significant trades over the past few years and has drafted poorly on top of it.

What I really don't like is AA's making it sound like Cabrera is done as a Jay and it likely is going to have something to do with contract length. 
 
Andy007 said:
I just don't see how a player could be "major league ready" when he hasn't even played AAA yet (at age 23, nonetheless).

A lot of players skip AAA.
 
L K said:
Andy007 said:
He is 23 and only in AA. Also, Law called him a "non-prospect." Tigers' prospect cupboard is awful.

That being said, Gose has been pretty terrible so I guess it's a pretty minor move.

I don't think being 23 is a fair knock against the guy.  He's had 2 full professional seasons and has had pretty good success in both of them as well as a decent showing in short season in 2012 when he was drafted.  You are right that being the #1 prospect for the Tigers means very little when we are talking about a team that has made a number of significant trades over the past few years and has drafted poorly on top of it.

What I really don't like is AA's making it sound like Cabrera is done as a Jay and it likely is going to have something to do with contract length.

The contract length stipulation is something that all fans should be enraged about. The team can't make the playoffs yet refuse to sign more than 5-year contracts? That is an outrage and an embarassment.

But as for Cabrera, would you really want him for more than five years? I think that could be a very dangerous deal. Granted the options without him are a joke, but I'm not sure a huge deal to retain him is a smart idea.
 
L K said:
Andy007 said:
I just don't see how a player could be "major league ready" when he hasn't even played AAA yet (at age 23, nonetheless).

A lot of players skip AAA.

Yea, guys like Strasburg. Not 13th round draft picks who are 23 years old at AA.
 
Andy007 said:
L K said:
Andy007 said:
He is 23 and only in AA. Also, Law called him a "non-prospect." Tigers' prospect cupboard is awful.

That being said, Gose has been pretty terrible so I guess it's a pretty minor move.

I don't think being 23 is a fair knock against the guy.  He's had 2 full professional seasons and has had pretty good success in both of them as well as a decent showing in short season in 2012 when he was drafted.  You are right that being the #1 prospect for the Tigers means very little when we are talking about a team that has made a number of significant trades over the past few years and has drafted poorly on top of it.

What I really don't like is AA's making it sound like Cabrera is done as a Jay and it likely is going to have something to do with contract length.

The contract length stipulation is something that all fans should be enraged about. The team can't make the playoffs yet refuse to sign more than 5-year contracts? That is an outrage and an embarassment.

But as for Cabrera, would you really want him for more than five years? I think that could be a very dangerous deal. Granted the options without him are a joke, but I'm not sure a huge deal to retain him is a smart idea.

The rumor going around is Cabrera wants 5 years and the Jays are offering 4.  Even 4 years of Cabrera probably isn't great value at the end of the contract but this team might as well be blown up at this point.  Non-playoff teams who take away decent players and replace them with questionable prospects don't magically get better.  This was a non-playoff team last year.
 
Andy007 said:
Yea, guys like Strasburg. Not 13th round draft picks who are 23 years old at AA.

You're focusing way too much on age and draft position, instead of looking at the player and his actual abilities. He appears to be at least close to being MLB ready, and, we're not talking about a guy who's toiled in the minor for 5 or 6 years and only reached AA. He has 2 full pro seasons. A lot of good players get drafted in the mid to late round of the draft. No one is expecting a superstar here, just a guy who can provide an average bat and glove, and the numbers suggest he may be able to do that as early as this season.
 
Andy007 said:
L K said:
Andy007 said:
I just don't see how a player could be "major league ready" when he hasn't even played AAA yet (at age 23, nonetheless).

A lot of players skip AAA.

Yea, guys like Strasburg. Not 13th round draft picks who are 23 years old at AA.

What about Martin Prado?  I'm sure there will always be similar players you can pick and choose but it doesn't much matter.  Did you see the stuff I posted about the Steamer Projection for Travis?  Steamer has a pretty good reputation for projecting players and the Steamer Projections love Travis.

He was drafted out of college in 2012 and the Tigers had a supposedly major league ready 2B in AAA last season (and Kinsler on the major league club) so Travis was stuck behind a couple other guys (which is why they were trying to transition him to OF).  Baseball-reference.com still has his age in AA to be below the league average for position players.
 
From Baseball America:

Hitting is the most challenging component for scouts to evaluate, but it?s also the most important thing for any position prospect to be able to do, and it?s the area where Travis excels. With a quick, simple stroke, Travis has excellent plate coverage and routinely barrels up balls for hard contact. He?s small but has a strong, compact frame, generating surprising exit speed off the bat for his size. Travis missed six weeks early in the season with an oblique injury, and the effects carried over into May, but from June on he batted .312/.379/.481.

Travis? tools aren?t flashy, but scouts come to appreciate him the more they see him because of his ability to hit, manage the strike zone and play smart, fundamentally sound baseball in all areas of the game. He can turn in times a tick slower out of the box, but he?s an average runner underway who moves well going first to third, with sharp instincts that make him an efficient basestealer. He?s an adequate defender at second base who makes the routine plays and is smooth on the double play pivot.

The surgery Travis had in September cut his offseason short, but the Tigers expected him to be fully ready at the beginning of spring training. The next logical step for Travis would be Triple-A, but the Blue Jays could push him more aggressively, and he?s likely to make his major league debut at some point in 2015.

In a more prospect-laden Blue Jays farm system, Travis won?t stand out quite as much, sliding into the mid-range of their Top 10. Nobody?s projecting a perennial all-star, but if Travis can be a steady, league-average player while the Blue Jays have him under cost control for six seasons, the trade will be a win for them.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/trade-central-tigers-deal-top-prospect-travis-toronto-gose/
 
L K said:
Andy007 said:
L K said:
Andy007 said:
He is 23 and only in AA. Also, Law called him a "non-prospect." Tigers' prospect cupboard is awful.

That being said, Gose has been pretty terrible so I guess it's a pretty minor move.

I don't think being 23 is a fair knock against the guy.  He's had 2 full professional seasons and has had pretty good success in both of them as well as a decent showing in short season in 2012 when he was drafted.  You are right that being the #1 prospect for the Tigers means very little when we are talking about a team that has made a number of significant trades over the past few years and has drafted poorly on top of it.

What I really don't like is AA's making it sound like Cabrera is done as a Jay and it likely is going to have something to do with contract length.

The contract length stipulation is something that all fans should be enraged about. The team can't make the playoffs yet refuse to sign more than 5-year contracts? That is an outrage and an embarassment.

But as for Cabrera, would you really want him for more than five years? I think that could be a very dangerous deal. Granted the options without him are a joke, but I'm not sure a huge deal to retain him is a smart idea.

The rumor going around is Cabrera wants 5 years and the Jays are offering 4.  Even 4 years of Cabrera probably isn't great value at the end of the contract but this team might as well be blown up at this point.  Non-playoff teams who take away decent players and replace them with questionable prospects don't magically get better.  This was a non-playoff team last year.

There are a few sources (Ian Hunter, Bob Elliot) saying that the Jays offered 3yrs 39 million and that Cabrera wants 50 million.
 
Potvin29 said:
From Baseball America:

Hitting is the most challenging component for scouts to evaluate, but it?s also the most important thing for any position prospect to be able to do, and it?s the area where Travis excels. With a quick, simple stroke, Travis has excellent plate coverage and routinely barrels up balls for hard contact. He?s small but has a strong, compact frame, generating surprising exit speed off the bat for his size. Travis missed six weeks early in the season with an oblique injury, and the effects carried over into May, but from June on he batted .312/.379/.481.

Travis? tools aren?t flashy, but scouts come to appreciate him the more they see him because of his ability to hit, manage the strike zone and play smart, fundamentally sound baseball in all areas of the game. He can turn in times a tick slower out of the box, but he?s an average runner underway who moves well going first to third, with sharp instincts that make him an efficient basestealer. He?s an adequate defender at second base who makes the routine plays and is smooth on the double play pivot.

The surgery Travis had in September cut his offseason short, but the Tigers expected him to be fully ready at the beginning of spring training. The next logical step for Travis would be Triple-A, but the Blue Jays could push him more aggressively, and he?s likely to make his major league debut at some point in 2015.

In a more prospect-laden Blue Jays farm system, Travis won?t stand out quite as much, sliding into the mid-range of their Top 10. Nobody?s projecting a perennial all-star, but if Travis can be a steady, league-average player while the Blue Jays have him under cost control for six seasons, the trade will be a win for them.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/trade-central-tigers-deal-top-prospect-travis-toronto-gose/

Sounds good. Hopefully he pans out.

Keith Law tweeted that he was a non-prospect and the fact that he has played so little in the minors (along with his tiny body frame) just makes me think that him immediately being a MLB starter is quite a bit premature.
 
Andy007 said:
The contract length stipulation is something that all fans should be enraged about. The team can't make the playoffs yet refuse to sign more than 5-year contracts? That is an outrage and an embarassment.

But as for Cabrera, would you really want him for more than five years? I think that could be a very dangerous deal. Granted the options without him are a joke, but I'm not sure a huge deal to retain him is a smart idea.

But I think that's why some fans, like me, aren't enraged by the five year limit. Alex has, if memory serves, always said that if they were ever in a situation like the Marlins where they were dealing with a young all-star looking for a big extension that they wouldn't necessarily stick to the policy so it really is more about guys like Cabrera where there are very good reasons to be wary about going above it.

If I saw that it had cost the Jays a really good player, sure, but right now probably the worst thing you could say about it is that it probably is part of the reason AA chose to try to improve the team via the big Marlins and Mets trades as opposed to Free Agency and it hasn't worked out very well.
 

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