The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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bustaheims
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Active off-season for Jays so far - claim Dirks and Smoak off waivers, exercise options on Happ and Lind, decline on Santos, re-acquired Liam Hendricks in a minor deal, and have traded Lind to Milwaukee.
L K
Active member
bustaheims said:
I certainly hope they made a big move or two to bolster the team.
I like them picking up Dirks. He missed all of last year but was pegged to be the starting LF for Detroit last year. He's a good 4th outfielder. I just hope he isn't the Melky replacement.
Smoak was a guy I always liked, but he really hasn't broken out. He's more of the same for the Jays as a guy who can't hit for average, strikes out a lot but hits for decent power. He's a downgrade on Lind at 1B against righties and he's not good against lefties.
bustaheims
Active member
L K said:
My hope is he's more of a fallback plan in case they can't land someone else they've targeted. Either that, or maybe there's some dismantling of the team going on this off-season, and he's there as a placeholder while they rebuild.
bustaheims
Active member
The return for Lind is RHP Marco Estrada - a #6 starter/swingman type.
bustaheims
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Jays news coming fast and furious! Qualifying offer made to Melky, option exercised on Thole, declined on Morrow, Smoak and McGowan. Smoak still under team control, though - two more seasons of arbitration eligibility.
Kin
New member
Peter D. said:
I think it's less of a salary dump and more just a recognition that they were moving on from him. Even having the sort of year he just did he's a 2 win player if he's not in the line-up everyday and it requires the team to carry a bench player just to DH against Lefties. It really shouldn't be hard to replace Lind and, well, the guy was a part-time player. You're not going to get a ton for him.
OldTimeHockey
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Nik the Trik said:
And I think they should be glad they got anything for him. If they couldn't get an offer, they were moving on from him regardless.
Andy007
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OldTimeHockey said:
Why should they be glad to get "anything?" The guy has had a huge OBP the last two years, destroys RH pitching (which, of course, is handedness of the majority of pitchers) and has a modest 7.5 million price tag with an 8 million club option next year. Carrying him may take up an extra roster spot but guys like Mayberry and Valencia smoke lefties so it's not really that big a deal. He definitely has some value. And personally I'm not adverse to this trade if the Jays acquire a full time DH but from the sound of AA's press conference this was basically a salary dump meaning Smoak + scrubs are probably going to be the replacement.
Kin
New member
Andy007 said:
Sure, but he's also essentially a bench player unless a team is committed to platooning at DH(or first/LF in the case of a NL team). 7.5 million dollar bench players, even ones who can hit, are tough sells.
I don't think that the team is lucky to get anything but a part time DH and a #6 starter are pretty much on par.
Andy007
Active member
I don't know, a 'bench player' who can hit RHP to the tune of a .900+ OPS is not going to come cheap, even in the NL. But that's not really the point because, as I said, I don't have a big problem with the deal. What bothers me is that the Jays are still going to go with a platoon, except one part might be Justin Smoak, a guy who is a 300 point drop-off in OPS. So they have a similar bench situation only with a few million dollars less and much worse hitting? Why wouldn't you just keep Lind then?
L K
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
The problem I think I have with the situation is whether the #6 starter is more valuable to the Jays than a guy who, albeit injury prone and useless against lefties, is a strong OBP player on a team of otherwise questionable swinging habits.
The Jays have Dickey, Buehrle, Happ, Stroman, Hutchinson, Drabek, Nolin, Norris, Redman and Sanchez all battling about for those 5 rotation spots. Granted some of them are not very good, but I would argue that Estrada isn't very good as a starter. In a soft hitting NL with larger parks, he gave up 29 home-runs. He would be a powderkeg in the AL East.
So what did the Jays really gain. A long arm out of the bullpen? An insurance starter for AAA? Is that really worth the financial savings of Lind?
I'm going to wait until we see what the Jays do in the offseason before I really rip into them for the move, but to me, the Jays have made their team worse so far this offseason. Offensively Dirks is a decent acquisition but really we are talking about a guy with a career .745 OPS that was inflated by an 88 game season as a platoon/backup player. His only full season he had a .686 OBP and is coming off a major back injury (HI Adam Lind!). Smoak is a clear downgrade at 1B/DH against righties and isn't good against lefties.
If the Jays are saving money to go out and acquire one of the big three starters...great. That makes the usefulness of Estrada even less relevant though. If the Jays are saving money just so they can re-sign Cabrera, then we are in for a long year because the team isn't going to magically be better with an aging Buehrle and Dickey as your only two inning eaters.
Kin
New member
Andy007 said:
Well, not to put too fine a point on it but I think the trade gave us a pretty clear idea of what a player like Adam Lind will go for.
Andy007 said:
Well, for starters, the world didn't begin and end last year. In 2013 the difference between Lind and Smoak in OPS was less than a hundred points. If you think Lind punched a little above his weight last year, and I think a .397 BABIP against right handers says he probably did, and that Smoak isn't as bad as he was last year then it's not quite as drastic a drop-off as you're making it out to be.
And that's where the idea starts to take form. If Smoak can come close to what it would be reasonable to expect Lind to do vs. RHP and is cheaper(and I think this move tells us the Jays don't have a ton of money to spend which is not an insignificant factor) then there's a fair bit of logic to it. Especially if Smoak's being a couple years younger and once being thought to have a pretty high ceiling means there's a little bit more room for growth there.
Kin
New member
L K said:
Sure, but in the two years prior to that he put up pretty good years in terms of FIP, WHIP and K/BB. His HR rate last year isn't really indicative of his career to date.
L K said:
Well, the way I tend to be inclined to look at it would be that trading Lind gets you:
- Estrada
- Money
- The use of the DH spot against RH pitchers
And keeping Lind gets you:
- Roughly 150 points of OPS against RHP vs. a replacement level DH
I'm not going to sit here and swear up and down that it's the right move but at the very least I think there's an argument for it.
OldTimeHockey
Active member
Andy007 said:
Because in a couple months they were getting squat. You can question whether or not they needed Lind, but that's not what I was commenting on. They decided they wanted to move on without him. Whether they have a grand plan or just wanted to save 7.5 million is beyond me. The second they decided to move on, they were essentially willing to accept the fact they may get nothing for the guy in return.