The Defensive Logjam

[Kin]

That's a good point about coachability. I should clarify that I wasn't promoting coaching over innate ability + experience as the primary determinant, rather coaching can more easily overcome a defensive deficiency than an offensive one for defensemen -- i.e. it is easier to fix Carrick's defensive flaws than to get Marincin's shot generation level up.

Fair enough. While I agree that improving a player's defensive game might be a different sort of coaching than improving their offensive game I don't think we know enough to say that one is easier than the other. I get where you're coming from though.

I believe part of why we aren't seeing that sort of immediate stratification is because NHLers are, by and large, the best players on every team they've played for up until they make it, so they have expectations of themselves to  play similar roles and produce at similar rates.

I wonder how true that is. Maybe in the case of a guy like Holland, sure, he was probably the best player wherever he went and in the rare instance where he wasn't like in his draft -1 year it was more a case of inexperience/age rather than a lack of talent.

But in the case of a guy like Winnik? I don't know if he always saw himself as the best guy on his college team or in the AHL. I don't have an answer for this but I think it'd be interesting to look at the junior careers of grinder-types to see how many of them played a similar role then.

 

[sickbeast]

How on earth can you say that the Leafs have a defensive logjam when they probably have the worst defense in the entire NHL?

What is it, a logjam of really bad players?  How is that a logjam?

 

[Highlander]

Reilly and Gardiner would be prizes on any other squad, they are coveted. Zaitzev is unknown but all indicators is he could be a great player, the others all have a very good upside and we have some very good defensive prospects in the pipeline, Neilson, Dermott to mention 2.  Loov and Valiev is also  guys who may develop. Yes its not the greatest but let see where Babs/Smith take them.

 

[McGarnagle]

How on earth can you say that the Leafs have a defensive logjam when they probably have the worst defense in the entire NHL?

What is it, a logjam of really bad players?  How is that a logjam?

[IM] You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means[/IM]

 

[Kin]

Regardless of quality right now the Leafs have Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev, Hunwick, Marincin, Polak, Corrado and Carrick who all have probably graduated from the AHL and have NHL contracts(and Robidas but he's probably not in the picture).

So even if Loov and Valiev aren't given a shot to make the team you still have to take 8 guys and cut it down to a regular 6 with a press box 7th. Again, that they're not great players for the most part(although most teams don't have great players on their bottom pairing) doesn't change the fact that it's more players than spots available.

 

[Kin]

Also, while there's no doubt the Leafs defense is pretty bad I'd definitely take it over Edmonton's, New Jersey's and Vancouver's. Columbus and, delightfully, Montreal also have iffy groups.

 

[sickbeast]

I'm finding it hard to be excited about this team.  Last year was interesting because they tanked, came in dead last, and got the #1 overall pick.  This year they are going to do better than that but they are not going to make the playoffs, not by any means.  So it's going to be very frustrating to watch the team play poorly with very little to show for it at the end of the season.  Yes, they will flip some players for picks at the trade deadline but that's only going to help so much.

I will say that the Leafs have some of the best young forwards in the league, only rivaled by perhaps Edmonton.  I am really looking forward to Mitch Marner and everyone in their group of forwards.  It's just their defense.  It's going to be brutally bad unless Babcock can really work his magic.

The goaltending is also a question mark and I don't see it being significantly better than what they had last season (aside from Bernier, he was brutal).

 

[herman]

How on earth can you say that the Leafs have a defensive logjam when they probably have the worst defense in the entire NHL?

What is it, a logjam of really bad players?  How is that a logjam?

A logjam refers to quantity, rather than quality, as you actually noticed yourself in the second sentence by qualifying the logjam.

Conversely, if you are saying there is no logjam because our defensemen are bad and the deployment of the pairings is largely irrelevant, then you have a right to that opinion.

Like Nik said, right now, we have defensemen with potential that need development runway (Marincin, Carrick, Corrado) that are not waiver exempt and are too good to pass through into the AHL. On the one hand, that will promote internal competition at Training Camp; on the other we run the risk of losing assets for nothing, either one of the three mentioned above, or a forward because Babcock wants to carry 8 defenders.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Also, while there's no doubt the Leafs defense is pretty bad I'd definitely take it over Edmonton's, New Jersey's and Vancouver's. Columbus and, delightfully, Montreal also have iffy groups.

On the topic of bad defences I wonder how Dallas' holds up this season. It was obviously never really a strong point of their team and they lost their #2 and #3 defencemen from this past season (Goligoski and Demers) plus their big trade deadline acquisition (Russell). They signed Hamhuis, but at 33 years old his best days are behind him so at best he probably replaces Russell meaning their bigger holes still weren't plugged.

 

[Kin]

On the topic of bad defences I wonder how Dallas' holds up this season. It was obviously never really a strong point of their team and they lost their #2 and #3 defencemen from this past season (Goligoski and Demers) plus their big trade deadline acquisition (Russell). They signed Hamhuis, but at 33 years old his best days are behind him so at best he probably replaces Russell meaning their bigger holes still weren't plugged.

Yeah, I thought about them when I was writing that. I think they'd probably qualify as the team I watched the least of last year so I don't have much of an opinion on, say, whether Klingberg is a really good two way guy or just a point producer or how Oduya looked when counted on for a larger role or whether or not you can take a 29 year old who goes by "Jordie" seriously.

Their defense will probably depend on their young guys stepping up. If Oleksiak ever lives up to his potential or if Julius Honka makes the team(who, again, I've never seen but had some pretty impressive numbers for a 20 year old in the AHL).

 

[sickbeast]

How on earth can you say that the Leafs have a defensive logjam when they probably have the worst defense in the entire NHL?

What is it, a logjam of really bad players?  How is that a logjam?

A logjam refers to quantity, rather than quality, as you actually noticed yourself in the second sentence by qualifying the logjam.

Conversely, if you are saying there is no logjam because our defensemen are bad and the deployment of the pairings is largely irrelevant, then you have a right to that opinion.

Like Nik said, right now, we have defensemen with potential that need development runway (Marincin, Carrick, Corrado) that are not waiver exempt and are too good to pass through into the AHL. On the one hand, that will promote internal competition at Training Camp; on the other we run the risk of losing assets for nothing, either one of the three mentioned above, or a forward because Babcock wants to carry 8 defenders.

You want to know what I think?  Instead of trading away a first and second round pick for a goalie they could have signed anyway, they should have used those picks to draft some defense.  They have drafted a ton of forwards.  I get it, they wanted the best player available with those picks.  But really they should think about either making some trades or picking up some defense.  And for the love of God, don't trade away our draft picks when we are in the middle of a rebuild!  We don't need a goalie yet, that trade was such a joke I'm still upset about it.  It's like we just traded Phil Kessel for an unproven goalie when we could have found something similar on the open market when the time comes that we really need one, without sacrificing any picks.

I also think it might have made sense to take a flyer on Luke Schenn.  He was signed for a very affordable contract.  He's the type of defenseman the Leafs need.  I'm not saying he's great, but he would have been useful IMO.

 

[herman]

You want to know what I think?  Instead of trading away a first and second round pick for a goalie they could have signed anyway, they should have used those picks to draft some defense.  They have drafted a ton of forwards.  I get it, they wanted the best player available with those picks.  But really they should think about either making some trades or picking up some defense.  And for the love of God, don't trade away our draft picks when we are in the middle of a rebuild!  We don't need a goalie yet, that trade was such a joke I'm still upset about it.  It's like we just traded Phil Kessel for an unproven goalie when we could have found something similar on the open market when the time comes that we really need one, without sacrificing any picks.

I also think it might have made sense to take a flyer on Luke Schenn.  He was signed for a very affordable contract.  He's the type of defenseman the Leafs need.  I'm not saying he's great, but he would have been useful IMO.

I agree with where you're coming from re: sacrificing picks during the rebuild and giving a bit more focus to the defense.

I have a different take on picking up Andersen for Bernier, but there's another thread for that. Ultimately, we're observers from a distance, and it's pretty hard for me to say one way or another what the opportunities for Leafs Management were and what market pressures they faced.

I will say of the three 'big' off-season moves (Andersen/Bernier, Martin, Polak), the goaltender move was actually the one I had the least issue with even though it was the most costly. Basically, I like the player, but didn't really like the net transaction cost.

I'm also pretty okay with passing on Schenn. What part of his game would have been most useful to us?

 

[sickbeast]

You want to know what I think?  Instead of trading away a first and second round pick for a goalie they could have signed anyway, they should have used those picks to draft some defense.  They have drafted a ton of forwards.  I get it, they wanted the best player available with those picks.  But really they should think about either making some trades or picking up some defense.  And for the love of God, don't trade away our draft picks when we are in the middle of a rebuild!  We don't need a goalie yet, that trade was such a joke I'm still upset about it.  It's like we just traded Phil Kessel for an unproven goalie when we could have found something similar on the open market when the time comes that we really need one, without sacrificing any picks.

I also think it might have made sense to take a flyer on Luke Schenn.  He was signed for a very affordable contract.  He's the type of defenseman the Leafs need.  I'm not saying he's great, but he would have been useful IMO.

I agree with where you're coming from re: sacrificing picks during the rebuild and giving a bit more focus to the defense.

I have a different take on picking up Andersen for Bernier, but there's another thread for that. Ultimately, we're observers from a distance, and it's pretty hard for me to say one way or another what the opportunities for Leafs Management were and what market pressures they faced.

I will say of the three 'big' off-season moves (Andersen/Bernier, Martin, Polak), the goaltender move was actually the one I had the least issue with even though it was the most costly. Basically, I like the player, but didn't really like the net transaction cost.

I'm also pretty okay with passing on Schenn. What part of his game would have been most useful to us?

Just the fact that he's more of a "stay-at-home" type of defenseman and he can hit.  We need more defense like that.  With Gardiner and Reilly there is already plenty of mobility and offense.  The Leafs desperately need some solid defensemen that can contribute primarily on a defensive level and help out the goalie.

I'm not saying Schenn is all that good because he's clearly not if he can only earn ~$1 million per season, but I do think he's young enough and he would have been an awesome reclamation project for Mike Babcock.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm not saying Schenn is all that good because he's clearly not if he can only earn ~$1 million per season, but I do think he's young enough and he would have been an awesome reclamation project for Mike Babcock.

Unless Babcock can somehow transform him from one of the slowest skaters in the league into, at the very least, someone with league average type speed, there's no reclamation to be done. Schenn's fallen out of favour because he's severely lacking in a key physical skill required to be effective in today's NHL.

 

[herman]

Just the fact that he's more of a "stay-at-home" type of defenseman and he can hit.  We need more defense like that.  With Gardiner and Reilly there is already plenty of mobility and offense.  The Leafs desperately need some solid defensemen that can contribute primarily on a defensive level and help out the goalie.

I'm not saying Schenn is all that good because he's clearly not if he can only earn ~$1 million per season, but I do think he's young enough and he would have been an awesome reclamation project for Mike Babcock.

I have leaned hard away from traditional 'stay-at-home' defensemen types in the past 5 years, since the game has gotten faster and faster still.

What I value in defenders are skating ability (forwards and backwards), gap control/disruption, puck retrieval skills, zone exits, and zone entries. A nice to have on top of that would be a good accurate shot. Other than the shot, all those things are heavily reliant on skating agility, mobility, and speed.

I think the Leafs need smart, fast, and patient defensemen. To my eye, and to the numbers, Schenn is unfortunately lacking in those departments. He plays a bit scared of the incoming forecheck and often dumps the puck, or forces a pass that goes errant when the other guy is about 4 sticks away.

 

[sickbeast]

Interesting.  You guys make good points, actually.

We do seem to agree about drafting and developing more defense.  The same goes for goalies IMO.  I know it's easy to look back but it's such a shame that we lost Rask for Raycroft.  That single trade alone affected the Leafs' destiny more than any other in recent memory.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I have leaned hard away from traditional 'stay-at-home' defensemen types in the past 5 years, since the game has gotten faster and faster still.

What I value in defenders are skating ability (forwards and backwards), gap control/disruption, puck retrieval skills, zone exits, and zone entries. A nice to have on top of that would be a good accurate shot. Other than the shot, all those things are heavily reliant on skating agility, mobility, and speed.

I think the Leafs need smart, fast, and patient defensemen. To my eye, and to the numbers, Schenn is unfortunately lacking in those departments. He plays a bit scared of the incoming forecheck and often dumps the puck, or forces a pass that goes errant when the other guy is about 4 sticks away.

This is an excellent post, you've got a keen eye herman and usually articulate yourself very well without mocking, your posts really provide great value to this site, thanks.

 

[sickbeast]

I have leaned hard away from traditional 'stay-at-home' defensemen types in the past 5 years, since the game has gotten faster and faster still.

What I value in defenders are skating ability (forwards and backwards), gap control/disruption, puck retrieval skills, zone exits, and zone entries. A nice to have on top of that would be a good accurate shot. Other than the shot, all those things are heavily reliant on skating agility, mobility, and speed.

I think the Leafs need smart, fast, and patient defensemen. To my eye, and to the numbers, Schenn is unfortunately lacking in those departments. He plays a bit scared of the incoming forecheck and often dumps the puck, or forces a pass that goes errant when the other guy is about 4 sticks away.

This is an excellent post, you've got a keen eye herman and usually articulate yourself very well without mocking, your posts really provide great value to this site, thanks.

+1

 

[pnjunction]

Yeah newer analytics really put the final nail in the coffin of 'stay-at-home' d-men; they do indeed stay 'at home', the defensive zone, because that's where the puck is most of the time when they're on the ice.  And if they're staying home while the puck is down the ice (because they don't have the mobility to get back) that's not helping generate shots to compensate.

 

[Tigger]

Luke would've been for depth, though SchadenSchennfreude, I mean, c'mon.