The Defensive Logjam

[herman]

More Jake vs Morgan has hit the pipeline!

http://akiblog.org/taking-closer-look-morgan-riellys-defensive-game/
via /r/leafs

I don't know this blog, but this is some pretty good stuff!

Gardiner doesn?t find himself in [the situation of giving an opponent a tonne of room] very often because he steps up on the opposition as they cross the blue line. By ?stepping up,? I don?t necessarily mean to make a hit, I just mean he puts pressure on the opponent and limits his options by directing him to the outside using body and stick positioning, like this.

Once again, the back pressure from Komarov is a huge help here, but Gardiner pivots with Shaw and gives him only one place to go. Shaw ends up blindly throwing the puck across the ice and into the far corner, where Polak picks the puck up (shudder) and the threat is over.

He refers to the gap control/speed-matching and body positioning that I originally felt was readily coachable (further up thread), but there are clearly innate skills involved in judging incoming speeds and instincts around body angles and stick disruption.

The Rielly screenshots show a player who is still a bit tentative about making defensive mistakes (lack of trust?), and thus backs up on plays when he should be aggressive instead.

 

[Bullfrog]

http://theleafsnation.com/2016/8/10/on-handedness-and-the-maple-leafs-defence-corps

So Rielly has been our defacto 1D kid, but he's still quite raw. Gardiner, however, is magic and we need to bottle whatever he's doing.

Of the three big trade chips (JvR, Kadri, Gardiner), Gardiner was the one I wanted to keep the most. Do you think we can re-sign him to a friendly contract due to his suppressed box stats?

A lot can happen in three years, but even if he simply maintains what he does now, I suspect he'll be getting an increase.

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/08/23/toronto-maple-leafs-system-analysis-the-power-play/

More great MLHS content. Analysis of the Leafs' PP breakout and zone entry strategy shows the heavy reliance on our back-end mobility.

The two-punch drop pass game plan is what the Leafs primarily build their breakout around. Either, a) Rielly/Gardiner is able to back off the forecheck with speed before dropping it to a forward to skate in, or b) the opponent plays the drop pass and Rielly/Gardiner try to skate it in clean, or c) Rielly/Gardiner skates it in as far as he can before passing to one of the wingers on the wall. Everyone has a role.

It is not overly complicated, but it doesn?t have to be. Some teams implement a minimum of five different breakouts and never use the same one twice in the same power play play. For Toronto, with this punch and counter-punch combo, it?s largely unnecessary. Teams can?t play both, and the penalty killers? gaps can?t make up the difference for the speed of the quarterbacks and the drop pass; when the breakout breaks down is when the player leading the rush makes the wrong read. I suspect the staff will add more layers to their breakout over time, as their group matures.

 

[herman]

http://theleafsnation.com/2016/8/23/will-roman-polak-play-for-the-marlies-this-season

This would assuage my trepidations greatly.

Let's get back to my earlier question: why would the Leafs give a $2.25M contract to a player they expect to be a healthy scratch for most of the season?  Well, if that's what they expected it would be very strange.  But what if that's not the plan?  What if the plan is for him to play for the Marlies?

In that case, the $2.25M kind of makes sense.  In order to play for the Marlies, Roman Polak would have to pass through waivers.  At a low contract value (say, $1M) there's a reasonable chance that a team would claim him.  By the beginning of the NHL season, there will almost certainly be some NHL team that has injuries on defence and could use a cheap replacement.  But $2.25M is a very high cap hit for a waiver claim, especially if it's a player who you only see as a temporary injury replacement.  So by giving Polak a higher cap hit than his roster spot would seem to suggest he should have, you can protect him from waiver claims.

Polak in the minors recoups 950k on the cap, which pays for Zaitsev and change. On top of that, there is a dearth of RHD on the Marlies at the moment and Polak has the best chances between him, Corrado, and Carrick of passing through waivers.

NHL teams could still pick him up at the deadline on the cheap for depth on their playoff drives, knowing he can at least hold down a 5/6 position and play a simple game.

 

[Bullfrog]

I suppose it's possible, but that seems like a stretch to me.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

There's a few reason I doubt that's plausible, but the biggest one for me is that I really can't see Polak agreeing to it. And I doubt the Leafs would have signed him for that role without talking to him about it.

 

[Tigger]

Even the author admits it's pretty unlikely.

 

[herman]

In ascending order of how mad I would be if these things happened:
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D: Polak and Hunwick traded for Ristolainen/Lindholm
;D: Polak or Hunwick traded for late picks
8): Polak or Hunwick sent to minors
: Zaitsev is a bust and sent to minors
: Corrado lost on waivers
: Marincin lost on waivers
:' Carrick lost on waivers
So Furious: Gardiner or Rielly lost on waivers

 

[hockeyfan1]

In ascending order of how mad I would be if these things happened:
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D: Polak and Hunwick traded for Ristolainen/Lindholm
;D: Polak or Hunwick traded for late picks
8): Polak or Hunwick sent to minors
: Zaitsev is a bust and sent to minors
: Corrado lost on waivers
: Marincin lost on waivers
:' Carrick lost on waivers
So Furious: Gardiner or Rielly lost on waivers

That's something I don't see happening. 

 

[herman]

That's something I don't see happening. 

That's a logjam I'd be happy for the Leafs to have.

 

[herman]

We should love Gardiner more.

http://theleafsnation.com/2016/9/6/jake-gardiner-is-really-good-defensively

If you were to ask people around the NHL what Jake Gardiner is good at, you'd probably hear a lot of things related to his offensive abilities.  Earlier this year James Reimer said that Gardiner has a rare aptitude for passing.  Writing for the Canadian Press last fall, Stephen Whyno described Gardiner as a "young, smooth-skating, offensive-minded" defenceman but added that he "could be an adventure in the defensive zone."  I think those comments are representative of the general opinion about Jake: he's a talented skater who's got great vision, but he hurts his team when he doesn't have the puck.

Conventional wisdom on Gardiner, however, is wrong.  While he struggled a bit early on in his NHL career, over the past few seasons Gardiner has been one of the most reliable players in the league at reducing the burden faced by his team's goalie.  The same skills that Gardiner uses to generate offence, like his skating and his vision, help him keep the puck away from his own net.

Is Gardiner the #1LHD we've had all along? Or is he merely the Kadri of the defense corps who elevates everyone else's play and has steady very good but sub-elite production?

 

[Kin]

I know we've beaten this to death already but every time I see one of these "You think Gardiner isn't good defensively? Well look at these possession/shot analytics!" arguments it's like watching a political panel on US cable news with two partisans yelling at each other.

Like, I get the point but the people making these cases are smart. They know that's not what's being argued or, at least, they really should.

 

[hockeyfan1]

We should love Gardiner more.

http://theleafsnation.com/2016/9/6/jake-gardiner-is-really-good-defensively

If you were to ask people around the NHL what Jake Gardiner is good at, you'd probably hear a lot of things related to his offensive abilities.  Earlier this year James Reimer said that Gardiner has a rare aptitude for passing.  Writing for the Canadian Press last fall, Stephen Whyno described Gardiner as a "young, smooth-skating, offensive-minded" defenceman but added that he "could be an adventure in the defensive zone."  I think those comments are representative of the general opinion about Jake: he's a talented skater who's got great vision, but he hurts his team when he doesn't have the puck.

Conventional wisdom on Gardiner, however, is wrong.  While he struggled a bit early on in his NHL career, over the past few seasons Gardiner has been one of the most reliable players in the league at reducing the burden faced by his team's goalie.  The same skills that Gardiner uses to generate offence, like his skating and his vision, help him keep the puck away from his own net.

Is Gardiner the #1LHD we've had all along? Or is he merely the Kadri of the defense corps who elevates everyone else's play and has steady very good but sub-elite production?

He is a little bit of both.

(As for the bolder quote), perhaps it (his skillset) or he, is a little bit unique that regard -- his 'strengths' helping his 'weaknesses' or vice versa.
Unique once again, and diverse. 

 

[rdowdall]

Jake Gardiner reminds me of Bret Hedican.  Probably a little more offensively gifted than Hedican, but still similar in terms of probable career arc.  He's a top four d-man in the NHL, which is a really good thing to have.  Going down the path of trying to make him something that he is not is probably not going to end well for the Leafs.

It's funny that the minute a d-man is tabbed as being "smooth skating", it's instantly assumed that they are going to put up close to PPG numbers. 

 

[herman]

My earlier impressions of Gardiner were that he had all the physical tools to excel as an offensive defenseman, but sometimes it looked like the game outpaced his thinking. I've since come to see it was both a game-speed adaptation and a byproduct of the systems he played under, where defensemen were routinely hung out to dry in extended DZ shifts.

These past couple of seasons has shown me he is now out-thinking the game; i.e. not merely reacting to the play, but creating through the incoming flow. I think he still needs to work on speeding up his shot release from the point, and maybe start playing a little less deferentially (Kaberle-esque).

He hasn't quite reached 1D ice time yet, but it'll be interesting to see how they deploy him (and how he fares) now that Phaneuf is no longer anchoring him (down). I think he can routinely hit 24+ min at this point the way he plays the game but I have no substantiation for that.

 

[Highlander]

Its hard to believe but 4 years have passed since I attended a Tampa Game which Leafs won 3-1. Gardiner was a revelation in that game, I believe he scored a goal and set up Lombardi with a beaut as well and looked like a great player all night. Then a lot of year passed and I still really like Gardiner but the potential we saw that night has never really materialized. Perhaps his muse was on that game and we have seen a lot of wonderful things from him, but that night he looked like a superstar.  Hope he can step into the skates again on a far more frequent basis.

 

[herman]

It's only halfway through preseason but here are a few things from the backend that are immediately clear to me:
1) Rielly is going to go beast mode. It will be amazeballs.
2) Gardiner is awesome as usual. Carry on.
3) Hunwick and Polak are not good even in sheltered roles, as they have no puck poise at all and provide the opposite of veteran stability. I would much rather have some younger players learning the game and taking their lumps. I dearly hope they do not lose a Carrick/Corrado/Marincin because of these two.
4) Zaitsev comes as advertised. Is there still much of a growth curve for a 25 year old? I think so, for defensemen at least.
5) Carrick. I think Babcock giving Carrick what he gave Rielly last year would be very good for his development. We know he can play well with the puck, so let's see him improve without it.
6) Corrado. I think last season's rest and recovery and strengthening have done a world of good for him. I wish he had more time in the AHL, but he will still be a very good 6/7 option. He's got more offensive instincts than he's given credit for.
7) Marincin. Quietly good. Ironing out some skating quirks and building confidence in his shot will round out his game nicely.
8 ) Valiev and Loov need more AHL seasoning. I know Valiev is better than he has shown so far.

 

[louisstamos]

It's only halfway through preseason but here are a few things from the backend that are immediately clear to me:
1) Rielly is going to go beast mode. It will be amazeballs.
2) Gardiner is awesome as usual. Carry on.
3) Hunwick and Polak are not good even in sheltered roles, as they have no puck poise at all and provide the opposite of veteran stability. I would much rather have some younger players learning the game and taking their lumps. I dearly hope they do not lose a Carrick/Corrado/Marincin because of these two.
4) Zaitsev comes as advertised. Is there still much of a growth curve for a 25 year old? I think so, for defensemen at least.
5) Carrick. I think Babcock giving Carrick what he gave Rielly last year would be very good for his development. We know he can play well with the puck, so let's see him improve without it.
6) Corrado. I think last season's rest and recovery and strengthening have done a world of good for him. I wish he had more time in the AHL, but he will still be a very good 6/7 option. He's got more offensive instincts than he's given credit for.
7) Marincin. Quietly good. Ironing out some skating quirks and building confidence in his shot will round out his game nicely.
8 ) Valiev and Loov need more AHL seasoning. I know Valiev is better than he has shown so far.

Yeah, the Polak move to me is still a headscratcher, but I guess they wanted the depth just in case (and Babcock certainly loved him last year).  Hunwick had a very good start to last year, but tapered off - to the point where I think Marincin allowed Rielly to have better numbers than he did.  But considering the points he's putting in this preseason, you have to think he'll still make the team.

It'll be interesting to see what happens next week.  Think the team carries 8 defensemen?

 

[Frank E]

So it seems season starts a week from Wednesday...when do final rosters have to be set?

 

[Kin]

Yeah, the Polak move to me is still a headscratcher, but I guess they wanted the depth just in case (and Babcock certainly loved him last year).  Hunwick had a very good start to last year, but tapered off - to the point where I think Marincin allowed Rielly to have better numbers than he did.  But considering the points he's putting in this preseason, you have to think he'll still make the team.

Polak makes a certain degree of sense if the team is planning another asset sell-off around the deadline. I suppose an argument could be made that his stock is significantly down from last year but I really do wonder in the long run if someone like Corrado is really more valuable than what Polak could fetch in a trade if he at least appears competent.