The Evander Kane Saga -> Traded to Buffalo

[Kin]

Kane hasn't been the piece everyone's claiming him to be in the last couple of years. He wanted out and has an injury history and will be out until training camp next year. I don't see how if you look at it as a Myers/Bogosian swap that Armia+Lemieux+First for Kane + Unsigned Goalie is all that a bad deal for Winnipeg.

Stafford's in there too, but he seems to be a throw in.

I actually think it's pretty good for Winnipeg on two fronts. One, whatever you might think about Kane vs. Stafford as players Kane's done for the year. Stafford will help the Jets right away and they're a team that really wants to make the playoffs.

Secondly, whatever people want to think about Evander Kane and his potential to rebound/return to form...he wasn't doing that in Winnipeg. His time there was over. Winnipeg was absolutely dealing from a position of weakness.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

At the same age Kane had already put up 107 pts in 187 NHL GP. He may offset some of Kane's production eventually, but I doubt he'll ever be a "Kane replacement" in terms of total production anyway.

Considering what Kane has actually produced for Winnipeg over the past couple seasons, there's a very good chance Armia could replace, or even surpass it.

I'd guess it'll take him more than 3 full 82 game seasons to surpass Kane's 96 pts the last 3 seasons (only 147 GP).

Then you're weighing that against the possibility Kane stays healthy and produces like he always has.

 

[Manson]

I don't get this deal from WPG's perspective at all.

Sure Kane has to go but Bogosian is better than Myers. Stafford is a lot worse than Kane, so a 1st this year, last year (Armia) and a 2nd from last year make up the gap between the 2 sets of players?

Not for me, but what do I know.

Edit: Myers is an offensive D-man. WPG already has Enstrom, Trouba and Buf in that role. Bogosian was a defensive D-man with offensive upside, so Myers seems like something they already have a lot of. He's also not very good defensively. Stafford has Winnik-like production this year.

That's funny, I actually felt the same way but your rationale has convinced me of the opposite.  Winnipeg basically got two 1sts and a 2nd which I think more than bridges the gap.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Secondly, whatever people want to think about Evander Kane and his potential to rebound/return to form...he wasn't doing that in Winnipeg. His time there was over. Winnipeg was absolutely dealing from a position of weakness.

I thought this too at first, but it really seems like a lot of teams were pretty interested in him. Especially if Winnipeg was willing to wait until the offseason.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I don't get this deal from WPG's perspective at all.

Sure Kane has to go but Bogosian is better than Myers. Stafford is a lot worse than Kane, so a 1st this year, last year (Armia) and a 2nd from last year make up the gap between the 2 sets of players?

Not for me, but what do I know.

I think Armia is gonna be a heck of a player, a very probable Kane replacement down the line. Armia gets the whole rest of the season to develop in the A, not like Kane was coming back anytime soon anyway.

Bogo/Myers is kind of a wash in my mind. Lemieux looks like he could be a serviceable player and the first could be used in a deal to move up possibly. Stafford, well, maybe they needed a gritty role player. Not a terrible deal for either side to be honest.

I don't know what your definition of a "heck of a player" is so it's hard to tell what that means from a production standpoint (apparently David Booth is a heck of a 4th liner).

He looks ok so far in the AHL but not off the charts. Zibanejad and J.T. Miller had similar AHL numbers (if not better), are the same age and have been decent if unspectacular players in their NHL careers so far.

He's 22 this year.

At the same age Kane had already put up 107 pts in 187 NHL GP. He may offset some of Kane's production eventually, but I doubt he'll ever be a "Kane replacement" in terms of total production anyway.

Kane hasn't been the piece everyone's claiming him to be in the last couple of years. He wanted out and has an injury history and will be out until training camp next year. I don't see how if you look at it as a Myers/Bogosian swap that Armia+Lemieux+First for Kane + Unsigned Goalie is all that a bad deal for Winnipeg.

Stafford's in there too, but he seems to be a throw in.

It's not a horrible deal, I just they could've done better (though maybe not).

I really don't like Bogo for Myers.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That's funny, I actually felt the same way but your rationale has convinced me of the opposite.  Winnipeg basically got two 1sts and a 2nd which I think more than bridges the gap.

I think looking at it like how Chev did shows that draft picks might not be as valuable as people think. Armia and Lemieux aren't really top prospects. They're likely 2nd and 3rd line players IF they manage to crack the NHL. Kane has higher potential than either of them and he's still young and already an established NHL player. It's like picking the mystery box. Maybe I'm leaning a little away from calling this deal a steal for the Sabres like I originally did but I really think the Jets should have gotten a prospect with a higher ceiling.

 

[Kin]

Secondly, whatever people want to think about Evander Kane and his potential to rebound/return to form...he wasn't doing that in Winnipeg. His time there was over. Winnipeg was absolutely dealing from a position of weakness.

I thought this too at first, but it really seems like a lot of teams were pretty interested in him. Especially if Winnipeg was willing to wait until the offseason.

I don't doubt that a lot of teams expressed interest because I'm sure there were a lot of teams who read the situation and were hoping they could get Kane on the cheap.

 

[bustaheims]

Then you're weighing that against the possibility Kane stays healthy and produces like he always has.

Well, A) Kane has never managed to stay healthy over an 82 game season, so it's really hard to say what he would produce if he "produces like he always has," and B) he has more seasons where he's produced like a 20-25 goal, ~50 point winger than anything else - something that's not terribly hard to replicate. There's a very real chance Armia could become that kind of player.

 

[Manson]

I think looking at it like how Chev did shows that draft picks might not be as valuable as people think. Armia and Lemieux aren't really top prospects. They're likely 2nd and 3rd line players IF they manage to crack the NHL. Kane has higher potential than either of them and he's still young and already an established NHL player. It's like picking the mystery box. Maybe I'm leaning a little away from calling this deal a steal for the Sabres like I originally did but I really think the Jets should have gotten a prospect with a higher ceiling.

Ok, ya in the case it's not so good. 

 

[Deebo]

I don't get this deal from WPG's perspective at all.

Sure Kane has to go but Bogosian is better than Myers. Stafford is a lot worse than Kane, so a 1st this year, last year (Armia) and a 2nd from last year make up the gap between the 2 sets of players?

Not for me, but what do I know.

Edit: Myers is an offensive D-man. WPG already has Enstrom, Trouba and Buf in that role. Bogosian was a defensive D-man with offensive upside, so Myers seems like something they already have a lot of. He's also not very good defensively. Stafford has Winnik-like production this year.

Armia was a 2011 pick.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I don't get this deal from WPG's perspective at all.

Sure Kane has to go but Bogosian is better than Myers. Stafford is a lot worse than Kane, so a 1st this year, last year (Armia) and a 2nd from last year make up the gap between the 2 sets of players?

Not for me, but what do I know.

Edit: Myers is an offensive D-man. WPG already has Enstrom, Trouba and Buf in that role. Bogosian was a defensive D-man with offensive upside, so Myers seems like something they already have a lot of. He's also not very good defensively. Stafford has Winnik-like production this year.

Armia was a 2011 pick.

Yes he was. I was even looking at the 2011 draft on db (why I referenced Miller and Zibby) but managed to screw up my post.

 

[jdh1]

I think WPG is the clear winner in this trade.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I think WPG is the clear winner in this trade.

You mean if the pick and prospects pan out, right?

 

[jdh1]

I think WPG is the clear winner in this trade.

You mean if the pick and prospects pan out, right?

The prospects are basically 1st round material plus a 1st rounder and Meyers for Zack B and a problem child.

 

[jdh1]

I think WPG is the clear winner in this trade.

You mean if the pick and prospects pan out, right?

The prospects are basically 1st round material plus a 1st rounder and Meyers for Zack B and a problem child.

I would hope that Shanahan could somehow sucker Montreal out of Subban and some change,for our own problem child Kessel along with Gardner or Franson.

I think Subban would thrive in Toronto.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I think WPG is the clear winner in this trade.

You mean if the pick and prospects pan out, right?

The prospects are basically 1st round material plus a 1st rounder and Meyers for Zack B and a problem child.

I would hope that Shanahan could somehow sucker Montreal out of Subban and some change,for our own problem child Kessel along with Gardner or Franson.

I think Subban would thrive in Toronto.

What?  There is zero chance of that happening.  Subban is thriving in Montreal, they're not trading him.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Guess we don't have to worry about McDavid playing for Buffalo. That would have made me puke.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Guess we don't have to worry about McDavid playing for Buffalo. That would have made me puke.

Why would you not have to worry about that now?  There's still a very good chance he becomes a Sabre.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Guess we don't have to worry about McDavid playing for Buffalo. That would have made me puke.

Why would you not have to worry about that now?  There's still a very good chance he becomes a Sabre.

Yeah the odds of that really haven't changed at all. If anything this trade makes them worse this season.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah the odds of that really haven't changed at all. If anything this trade makes them worse this season.

I don't think it really has much impact on them this season. Myers for Bogosian is pretty much a straight swap from the Sabres' perspective and Stafford wasn't contributing much - though, very few forwards in Buffalo are.

Oddly enough, with all the recent events, I think there might be more chance they don't end up with McDavid. Edmonton losing Hall could be enough to sink them enough for the Sabres to make up the 4 points between them. If the Oilers can make up that gap, and someone else can win the lottery . . .