The Shanaplan - Building the Leafs Toward Stanley Cup Contention

[TBLeafer]

To paraphrase Dubas, "your [guts] are lying sons of bitches in the worst way."

He's still young and learning. It's all about balance between what you see, what you feel about it, what you think about it and putting it all together. It is always smart to question your gut. It doesn't mean that they are lying sons of bitches even if those words did come from a young Wunderkind.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Your gut is the most honest thing in your body that you have.  Its the mind that plays games and purely going off stats is purely cerebral.

You do realize that your "gut" is really just the part of your mind that's responsible for making decisions without analyzing situations rationally, right? It's the part of your consciousness that lies to you more than anything else. It may be the most truly you, but it's certainly not the most honest.

Disagree. Your gut doesn't make decisions, hence going against your gut. And it can unquestionably be wrong, hence Nonis signing Clarkson, but it isn't dishonest or untruthful.

A person's "gut" means whatever they as an individual think it means.  Which basically means that it has no universal meaning.  Which means that qualifying the honesty or dishonesty of the "gut" is inherently ridiculous.

If anything, your attempt at defining the so-called honesty of the gut really just seems an attempt at valuing the subjective over the objective.

 

[caver]

To paraphrase Dubas, "your [guts] are lying sons of bitches in the worst way."

He's still young and learning. It's all about balance between what you see, what you feel about it, what you think about it and putting it all together. It is always smart to question your gut. It doesn't mean that they are lying sons of bitches even if those words did come from a young Wunderkind.

Naturopaths refer to the gut as the second brain...and it can make sense so you go with it TBLeafer... I may not agree with all your views but you have sparked some good discussion here.... Cheers..

 

[TBLeafer]

To paraphrase Dubas, "your [guts] are lying sons of bitches in the worst way."

He's still young and learning. It's all about balance between what you see, what you feel about it, what you think about it and putting it all together. It is always smart to question your gut. It doesn't mean that they are lying sons of bitches even if those words did come from a young Wunderkind.

Naturopaths refer to the gut as the second brain...and it can make sense so you go with it TBLeafer... I may not agree with all your views but you have sparked some good discussion here.... Cheers..

Glad that you think I'm a positive addition here. Thanks.

 

[TBLeafer]

Your gut is the most honest thing in your body that you have.  Its the mind that plays games and purely going off stats is purely cerebral.

You do realize that your "gut" is really just the part of your mind that's responsible for making decisions without analyzing situations rationally, right? It's the part of your consciousness that lies to you more than anything else. It may be the most truly you, but it's certainly not the most honest.

Disagree. Your gut doesn't make decisions, hence going against your gut. And it can unquestionably be wrong, hence Nonis signing Clarkson, but it isn't dishonest or untruthful.

A person's "gut" means whatever they as an individual think it means.  Which basically means that it has no universal meaning.  Which means that qualifying the honesty or dishonesty of the "gut" is inherently ridiculous.

If anything, your attempt at defining the so-called honesty of the gut really just seems an attempt at valuing the subjective over the objective.

Sometimes in cards I question my initial gut feeling about what to do with my hand and overanalyze and do something else.

More often than not my initial gut feeling turned out to be right.

Your eyes can be deceiving and thoughts and stats misleading, but your gut remains pure.

 

[louisstamos]

Let's put it this way - one of my favorite analogies to use is gambling.  Let's say you're at a horse race and you're going to put $20 on a horse.  Some people will bet on gut instinct.  And to be fair - sometimes they're right (my uncle does this a lot, but he's also a horse racer himself, so I feel like there's something he's not sharing with me ).  Others will look at stats - look at the horse's last few races, look how well they perform on that turf, etc.  But in the end, it's all assumptions because the horses still have to run that race, and anything can happen.

If we were to evaluate the team today - with the draft in a few days, and free agency about a week away - if you had to put $20 today on whether the Leafs make the playoffs next year or not (let's say 2-1 if they don't, 5-1 if they do), where would you put it?  If you're a stats person - you see a 30th place team, free agency is an unknown - taking all probabilities into the equation, the best bet is to take the no until the team starts trending upwards - that's the safe bet.  But if your gut instinct is that the team will acquire the players they need and do well, and worth a bet considering the odds, maybe you take the longshot and say yes.  Because in the end, the horses still have to run the race and anything can happen.

Basically, what I'm saying is...anyone want to put $20 on the upcoming season?

 

[TBLeafer]

Let's put it this way - one of my favorite analogies to use is gambling.  Let's say you're at a horse race and you're going to put $20 on a horse.  Some people will bet on gut instinct.  And to be fair - sometimes they're right (my uncle does this a lot, but he's also a horse racer himself, so I feel like there's something he's not sharing with me ).  Others will look at stats - look at the horse's last few races, look how well they perform on that turf, etc.  But in the end, it's all assumptions because the horses still have to run that race, and anything can happen.

If we were to evaluate the team today - with the draft in a few days, and free agency about a week away - if you had to put $20 today on whether the Leafs make the playoffs next year or not (let's say 2-1 if they don't, 5-1 if they do), where would you put it?  If you're a stats person - you see a 30th place team, free agency is an unknown - taking all probabilities into the equation, the best bet is to take the no until the team starts trending upwards - that's the safe bet.  But if your gut instinct is that the team will acquire the players they need and do well, and worth a bet considering the odds, maybe you take the longshot and say yes.  Because in the end, the horses still have to run the race and anything can happen.

Basically, what I'm saying is...anyone want to put $20 on the upcoming season?

My gut says ask me in October after the offseason plays out to its completion.

 

[louisstamos]

Let's put it this way - one of my favorite analogies to use is gambling.  Let's say you're at a horse race and you're going to put $20 on a horse.  Some people will bet on gut instinct.  And to be fair - sometimes they're right (my uncle does this a lot, but he's also a horse racer himself, so I feel like there's something he's not sharing with me ).  Others will look at stats - look at the horse's last few races, look how well they perform on that turf, etc.  But in the end, it's all assumptions because the horses still have to run that race, and anything can happen.

If we were to evaluate the team today - with the draft in a few days, and free agency about a week away - if you had to put $20 today on whether the Leafs make the playoffs next year or not (let's say 2-1 if they don't, 5-1 if they do), where would you put it?  If you're a stats person - you see a 30th place team, free agency is an unknown - taking all probabilities into the equation, the best bet is to take the no until the team starts trending upwards - that's the safe bet.  But if your gut instinct is that the team will acquire the players they need and do well, and worth a bet considering the odds, maybe you take the longshot and say yes.  Because in the end, the horses still have to run the race and anything can happen.

Basically, what I'm saying is...anyone want to put $20 on the upcoming season?

My gut says ask me in October after the offseason plays out to its completion.

Nope.  Bet has to be made today, that's the deal (because when we're analyzing the team, that's what we're basing it on - what it looks like today).  What would your bet be?

 

[TBLeafer]

Let's put it this way - one of my favorite analogies to use is gambling.  Let's say you're at a horse race and you're going to put $20 on a horse.  Some people will bet on gut instinct.  And to be fair - sometimes they're right (my uncle does this a lot, but he's also a horse racer himself, so I feel like there's something he's not sharing with me ).  Others will look at stats - look at the horse's last few races, look how well they perform on that turf, etc.  But in the end, it's all assumptions because the horses still have to run that race, and anything can happen.

If we were to evaluate the team today - with the draft in a few days, and free agency about a week away - if you had to put $20 today on whether the Leafs make the playoffs next year or not (let's say 2-1 if they don't, 5-1 if they do), where would you put it?  If you're a stats person - you see a 30th place team, free agency is an unknown - taking all probabilities into the equation, the best bet is to take the no until the team starts trending upwards - that's the safe bet.  But if your gut instinct is that the team will acquire the players they need and do well, and worth a bet considering the odds, maybe you take the longshot and say yes.  Because in the end, the horses still have to run the race and anything can happen.

Basically, what I'm saying is...anyone want to put $20 on the upcoming season?

My gut says ask me in October after the offseason plays out to its completion.

Nope.  Bet has to be made today, that's the deal (because when we're analyzing the team, that's what we're basing it on - what it looks like today).  What would your bet be?

Sorry. The horse isn't even selected yet and ready to line up at the gate.

I can't pick a horse that doesn't exist yet.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Your gut is the most honest thing in your body that you have.  Its the mind that plays games and purely going off stats is purely cerebral.

You do realize that your "gut" is really just the part of your mind that's responsible for making decisions without analyzing situations rationally, right? It's the part of your consciousness that lies to you more than anything else. It may be the most truly you, but it's certainly not the most honest.

Disagree. Your gut doesn't make decisions, hence going against your gut. And it can unquestionably be wrong, hence Nonis signing Clarkson, but it isn't dishonest or untruthful.

A person's "gut" means whatever they as an individual think it means.  Which basically means that it has no universal meaning.  Which means that qualifying the honesty or dishonesty of the "gut" is inherently ridiculous.

If anything, your attempt at defining the so-called honesty of the gut really just seems an attempt at valuing the subjective over the objective.

Sometimes in cards I question my initial gut feeling about what to do with my hand and overanalyze and do something else.

More often than not my initial gut feeling turned out to be right.

Your eyes can be deceiving and thoughts and stats misleading, but your gut remains pure.

"Use your gut, Luke."

 

[louisstamos]

Let's put it this way - one of my favorite analogies to use is gambling.  Let's say you're at a horse race and you're going to put $20 on a horse.  Some people will bet on gut instinct.  And to be fair - sometimes they're right (my uncle does this a lot, but he's also a horse racer himself, so I feel like there's something he's not sharing with me ).  Others will look at stats - look at the horse's last few races, look how well they perform on that turf, etc.  But in the end, it's all assumptions because the horses still have to run that race, and anything can happen.

If we were to evaluate the team today - with the draft in a few days, and free agency about a week away - if you had to put $20 today on whether the Leafs make the playoffs next year or not (let's say 2-1 if they don't, 5-1 if they do), where would you put it?  If you're a stats person - you see a 30th place team, free agency is an unknown - taking all probabilities into the equation, the best bet is to take the no until the team starts trending upwards - that's the safe bet.  But if your gut instinct is that the team will acquire the players they need and do well, and worth a bet considering the odds, maybe you take the longshot and say yes.  Because in the end, the horses still have to run the race and anything can happen.

Basically, what I'm saying is...anyone want to put $20 on the upcoming season?

My gut says ask me in October after the offseason plays out to its completion.

Nope.  Bet has to be made today, that's the deal (because when we're analyzing the team, that's what we're basing it on - what it looks like today).  What would your bet be?

Sorry. The horse isn't even selected yet and ready to line up at the gate.

I can't pick a horse that doesn't exist yet.

Dropping the horse analogy:

JVR - Kadri - Lupul
Greening - Nylander - Michalek
Matthews (probably) - Bozak - Marner (probably)
Komarov - Laich - Holland
Soshnikov - Hyman

Rielly - Marincin
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Carrick - Hunwick
Corrado

Andersen
Bernier

...that's what the team looks like today.  And yes, that's definitely going to change come October.  So, the entire bet is based on "gut."  Maybe they add Stamkos?  Maybe they turn Lupul and Bozak into Doughty and Ovechkin somehow? (I'd assume by trading 18 first round picks? ).  But the deadline for the bet is today.  Let's say it's someone else's money but you keep the winnings.  And you've got a gun to your head.  What's your bet?  Does your gut tell you that the "Shanaplan" (I still hate that term) does enough this off-season to be a playoff team next year to warrant the 5-1 bet?

 

[TBLeafer]

Let's put it this way - one of my favorite analogies to use is gambling.  Let's say you're at a horse race and you're going to put $20 on a horse.  Some people will bet on gut instinct.  And to be fair - sometimes they're right (my uncle does this a lot, but he's also a horse racer himself, so I feel like there's something he's not sharing with me ).  Others will look at stats - look at the horse's last few races, look how well they perform on that turf, etc.  But in the end, it's all assumptions because the horses still have to run that race, and anything can happen.

If we were to evaluate the team today - with the draft in a few days, and free agency about a week away - if you had to put $20 today on whether the Leafs make the playoffs next year or not (let's say 2-1 if they don't, 5-1 if they do), where would you put it?  If you're a stats person - you see a 30th place team, free agency is an unknown - taking all probabilities into the equation, the best bet is to take the no until the team starts trending upwards - that's the safe bet.  But if your gut instinct is that the team will acquire the players they need and do well, and worth a bet considering the odds, maybe you take the longshot and say yes.  Because in the end, the horses still have to run the race and anything can happen.

Basically, what I'm saying is...anyone want to put $20 on the upcoming season?

My gut says ask me in October after the offseason plays out to its completion.

Nope.  Bet has to be made today, that's the deal (because when we're analyzing the team, that's what we're basing it on - what it looks like today).  What would your bet be?

Sorry. The horse isn't even selected yet and ready to line up at the gate.

I can't pick a horse that doesn't exist yet.

Dropping the horse analogy:

JVR - Kadri - Lupul
Greening - Nylander - Michalek
Matthews (probably) - Bozak - Marner (probably)
Komarov - Laich - Holland
Soshnikov - Hyman

Rielly - Marincin
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Carrick - Hunwick
Corrado

Andersen
Bernier

...that's what the team looks like today.  And yes, that's definitely going to change come October.  So, the entire bet is based on "gut."  Maybe they add Stamkos?  Maybe they turn Lupul and Bozak into Doughty and Ovechkin somehow? (I'd assume by trading 18 first round picks? ).  But the deadline for the bet is today.  Let's say it's someone else's money but you keep the winnings.  And you've got a gun to your head.  What's your bet?  Does your gut tell you that the "Shanaplan" (I still hate that term) does enough this off-season to be a playoff team next year to warrant the 5-1 bet?

+/- 85 points is where I see this team next season. A core will need at least a full season to gel before it is in position to contend. I would need to see Stamkos added to take the bet for playoffs next season. Even then I would do it nervously as I only see them at around +/- 90 points with him added.

 

[Kin]

Sweet goodness. Your "gut" is a metaphor. It is not a separate entity from your brain. Everyone's "Gut" is informed, it is not raw instinct.

And this was never a conversation about whether or not people eventually have to make decisions on information or instinct, it's about whether you're going to be so selective that the only information that filters through is what you already agree with. To use the old quote, it's about not using statistics the way a drunk uses a lamppost.

I don't for a second believe that this article was quoted because the person who quoted it is really knowledgeable about WAR or thinks it's a really good way to evaluate the sum total of a player's contributions. They just thought it reinforced their stated position. Once it was pointed out that it didn't really, then WAR(and information in general) was deemed immaterial to the conversation.

We choose what information we allow to enter our decision making process. Your "gut" is a product of those choices. That's what the metaphor is because otherwise, literally, your actual gut is full of crap.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/gut

Full Definition of gut
1
a (1) :  bowels, entrails ?usually used in plural

 

[louisstamos]

+/- 85 points is where I see this team next season. A core will need at least a full season to gel before it is in position to contend. I would need to see Stamkos added to take the bet for playoffs next season. Even then I would do it nervously as I only see them at around +/- 90 points with him added.

Excellent - exactly what I was after, 'cause I think you're exactly right.  Even with Andersen and even Stamkos in the fold, I don't see more than 90 points, which is a huge improvement, but isn't really a playoff team. (Philly had the last wild card with 96 this year)

That said, to answer my own question - if it was someone else's money, I'd probably bet the Leafs make the playoffs anyways .  Since I'd have nothing to lose, and that has a higher pay out, go for gold.  But if it was my own money, I'd look at the trends and taker the safer bet on a playoff miss.  Of course, if they jumped up 20 points in one year and missed, the following year I might be more inclined to take the yes.

 

[TBLeafer]

+/- 85 points is where I see this team next season. A core will need at least a full season to gel before it is in position to contend. I would need to see Stamkos added to take the bet for playoffs next season. Even then I would do it nervously as I only see them at around +/- 90 points with him added.

Excellent - exactly what I was after, 'cause I think you're exactly right.  Even with Anderson and even Stamkos in the fold, I don't see more than 90 points, which is a huge improvement, but isn't really a playoff team. (Philly had the last wild card with 96 this year)

That said, to answer my own question - if it was someone else's money, I'd probably bet the Leafs make the playoffs anyways .  Since I'd have nothing to lose, and that has a higher pay out, go for gold.  But if it was my own money, I'd look at the trends and taker the safer bet on a playoff miss.  Of course, if they jumped up 20 points in one year and missed, the following year I might be more inclined to take the yes.

Meh the 20 of someone else's money would probably amount to a wash, as they probably make me accountable for the bet if we last and I'd have to shell out for a pitcher of beer or something and split winnings if we won. 

I hear ya on all other counts, except... because he's gonna be around awhile, it's Andersen.  We didn't trade with Ottawa. 

Andersen vs. Anderson for the season opener perhaps?

 

[louisstamos]

Evidently my brain works better at midnight than it does at 9 a.m.   Corrected!

 

[disco]

 

[Bullfrog]

+/- 85 points is where I see this team next season. A core will need at least a full season to gel before it is in position to contend. I would need to see Stamkos added to take the bet for playoffs next season. Even then I would do it nervously as I only see them at around +/- 90 points with him added.

What exactly do you mean by "contend"? For a playoff spot or for a championship?

 

[Tigger]

(Philly had the last wild card with 96 this year)

In the east, Minnesota got in with 87, which decidedly isn't the norm.

 

[Tigger]

+/- 85 points is where I see this team next season. A core will need at least a full season to gel before it is in position to contend. I would need to see Stamkos added to take the bet for playoffs next season. Even then I would do it nervously as I only see them at around +/- 90 points with him added.

What exactly do you mean by "contend"? For a playoff spot or for a championship?

I'd like to hear what Jaqen H'ghar has to say about 'a core'.