TOP 5 PICK!!!

[Kin]

Take out the word hyper and I would say that's a very accurate statement. The expectation was that he would be a competent defensive defenseman, not someone who struggles with the basic requirements to be an NHL player.

I disagree. He's been a competent defensive player. What they've asked of him, both in terms of SH time and in terms of playing him with a defensively suspect group, would have required an excellent defender to have satisfied.

 

[ZBBM]

Take out the word hyper and I would say that's a very accurate statement. The expectation was that he would be a competent defensive defenseman, not someone who struggles with the basic requirements to be an NHL player.

I disagree. He's been a competent defensive player. What they've asked of him, both in terms of SH time and in terms of playing him with a defensively suspect group, would have required an excellent defender to have satisfied.

I dunno Nik.  I am actually a fan of Schenn but he makes a lot of unforced errors that you can't blame on his partner or the forwards.  I am not ready to write him off but I also wouldn't be averse to trading him.

 

[Kin]

I dunno Nik.  I am actually a fan of Schenn but he makes a lot of unforced errors that you can't blame on his partner or the forwards.  I am not ready to write him off but I also wouldn't be averse to trading him.

The thing about a player like Schenn, however, is that you're really only ever going to notice two things about him: either he lays someone out with a big hit which isn't really his game(he hits people but he's not like a Phaneuf who can get out of position trying to level someone) or he screws up.

Every defenseman makes errors. Compared to the rest of Toronto's D, which admittedly isn't grading on the toughest of curves, Schenn doesn't make a particularly high amount(he's credited with the least giveaways per game of the team among regular defensemen, for whatever that's worth).

But, again, my point isn't that Schenn has been terrific. My point is that expecting him to be has never been realistic.

 

[Sudafederov]

This is a little old now and may be cherry picking a bit, but

http://www.birdwatchersanonymous.com/2009/6/22/921049/where-star-level-players-are-found?ref=CBS

and the takeaway is this

"More than any other position, quality top pairing defensemen are found past the 1st and 2nd round. Nearly half (43%) of the top pairing defense in the 2009 playoffs came from the 3rd or lower rounds."

"a smart team should almost always use their 1st rounder on a skilled forward--because the odds of finding one later are remote." (one exception being a highly touted goalie).


?In the 1st round clubs would be wise to focus on elite scoring forwards and maybe a can't miss goalie.
?The 2nd round tends to produce many high impact defensemen.
?The 3rd and later rounds very rarely produce scoring forwards, but many quality netminders, defensemen and checking forwards are available for the taking

---

So if you subscribe to that theory, then drafting a stay at home D with your top 10 pick may not be a wise choice.  That's not Schenn's fault, but perhaps it wasn't a smart move by management.

Not sure if I subscribe to the theory given Tyler Myers and Victor Hedman, but interesting nonetheless.

 

[Kin]

So if you subscribe to that theory, then drafting a stay at home D with your top 10 pick may not be a wise choice.  That's not Schenn's fault, but perhaps it wasn't a smart move by management.

I prefer this follow-up that uses a bigger chunk of data:

http://gospelofhockey.blogspot.ca/2009/06/dont-draft-what-you-can-get-buy-at.html

And the conclusion here is:

... The problem? You have a better chance of getting a top defender than a top forward almost any time in the draft. As such, you have a better chance of drafting more top notch players by taking more defencemen than forwards.

...

Obviously a team needs to procure both forwards and defencemen. As such, I think that I would take whichever player I thought was the best available in the first round of the draft without regard for position (unless it's a goalie, I would never never never draft a goalie in the first round).

Not that I think it's a hard science either way. You shouldn't rely on probabilities over scouting if you have faith in a scouting staff.

 

[drummond]

This is a little old now and may be cherry picking a bit, but

http://www.birdwatchersanonymous.com/2009/6/22/921049/where-star-level-players-are-found?ref=CBS

and the takeaway is this

"More than any other position, quality top pairing defensemen are found past the 1st and 2nd round. Nearly half (43%) of the top pairing defense in the 2009 playoffs came from the 3rd or lower rounds."

"a smart team should almost always use their 1st rounder on a skilled forward--because the odds of finding one later are remote." (one exception being a highly touted goalie).


?In the 1st round clubs would be wise to focus on elite scoring forwards and maybe a can't miss goalie.
?The 2nd round tends to produce many high impact defensemen.
?The 3rd and later rounds very rarely produce scoring forwards, but many quality netminders, defensemen and checking forwards are available for the taking

---

So if you subscribe to that theory, then drafting a stay at home D with your top 10 pick may not be a wise choice.  That's not Schenn's fault, but perhaps it wasn't a smart move by management.

Not sure if I subscribe to the theory given Tyler Myers and Victor Hedman, but interesting nonetheless.

Yeah, this theory has some merit. Just look at the Leafs last two decades. D-men drafted in later rounds include among others players such as Tomas Kaberle (8th round), Danny Markov (9th round), Dmitri Mironov (8th round), Carl Gunnarson (7th round), Anton Stralman (7th round), Korbinian Holzer (4th round), Jay Harrison (3rd round), Karel Pilar (2nd round).

Those who were drafted in the first round by the Leafs include names such as Kenny Jonsson, Luke Schenn, Carlo Colaicovo and surprisingly long list of no names - John Doherty, Petr Svoboda, Marek Posmyk, and Jeff Ware - all first round picks, who in most cases did not make the NHL at all.

If you ask me, the later rounds gave the Leafs much better players as far as defense is concerned.

In general I agree that with TOP 5 pick you should target prime offensive talent.

 

[Kin]

Those who were drafted in the first round by the Leafs include names such as Kenny Jonsson, Luke Schenn, Carlo Colaicovo and surprisingly long list of no names - John Doherty, Petr Svoboda, Marek Posmyk, and Jeff Ware - all first round picks, who in most cases did not make the NHL at all.

Of those guys, only Ware was a first round pick and if we're going to cherry pick we can find a list of forwards that stack up pretty well to the defensemen you mention as finds outside of the first round(Stajan, Modin, Perreault, Kulemin, Berezin).

Outside of Kaberle, the Leafs haven't drafted anything particularly special anywhere in the draft.

 

[bustaheims]

Those who were drafted in the first round by the Leafs include names such as Kenny Jonsson, Luke Schenn, Carlo Colaicovo and surprisingly long list of no names - John Doherty, Petr Svoboda, Marek Posmyk, and Jeff Ware - all first round picks, who in most cases did not make the NHL at all.

Doherty, Posmyk and Svoboda were not 1st round picks. All 3 were 2nd rounders.

 

[drummond]

Those who were drafted in the first round by the Leafs include names such as Kenny Jonsson, Luke Schenn, Carlo Colaicovo and surprisingly long list of no names - John Doherty, Petr Svoboda, Marek Posmyk, and Jeff Ware - all first round picks, who in most cases did not make the NHL at all.

Doherty, Posmyk and Svoboda were not 1st round picks. All 3 were 2nd rounders.

OK, my mistake

 

[Jalili]

Take out the word hyper and I would say that's a very accurate statement. The expectation was that he would be a competent defensive defenseman, not someone who struggles with the basic requirements to be an NHL player.

I disagree. He's been a competent defensive player. What they've asked of him, both in terms of SH time and in terms of playing him with a defensively suspect group, would have required an excellent defender to have satisfied.

Well, I think we have very different definitions of what a competent defensive player is.

Gunnarsson, for example, played with the same sub-par group and was, in my mind, competent for the most part in his own end this season. Phaneuf, who's been notorious around the league for his poor decision making, was at the very least semi-competent while tackling the heaviest workload.

I don't disagree with you that playing on this team has had an adverse effect on him, but I think Schenn was also exposed pretty badly with a few glaring weaknesses that are his own individual problems. Maybe in a more favourable situation, those weaknesses aren't nearly as obvious, but that's not the kind of player I would be satisfied with using a top 5 pick on, unless it's in a year where the draft class is the pits.

 

[Kin]

Well, I think we have very different definitions of what a competent defensive player is.

Gunnarsson, for example, played with the same sub-par group and was, in my mind, competent for the most part in his own end this season. Phaneuf, who's been notorious around the league for his poor decision making, was at the very least semi-competent while tackling the heaviest workload.

Well, we disagree about how Phaneuf played this year at least. I think Phaneuf's play was a lot further off from what you want out of your #1 than Schenn's was what you want from a #5.

Gunnarsson is not someone I'd describe as simply being competent. I'd describe him as being pretty good. I think he acquitted himself very well this season in tough situations.

I'm not using competent as some sort of high praise. I just think you're exaggerating what should be expected out of a bottom pairing defenseman in the NHL.

I don't disagree with you that playing on this team has had an adverse effect on him, but I think Schenn was also exposed pretty badly with a few glaring weaknesses that are his own individual problems. Maybe in a more favourable situation, those weaknesses aren't nearly as obvious, but that's not the kind of player I would be satisfied with using a top 5 pick on, unless it's in a year where the draft class is the pits.

I don't think I said that playing with the Leafs has hurt Schenn, I just think it's made his errors more noticeable. I think that if you looked around the league at people filling the role that Schenn's filled in his time here you're going to find guys who have flaws and make mistakes. A flawless defensive defenseman isn't going to be a bottom pairing guy. He's going to get 20+ minutes and lead the league in SH ice-time.

Should you be satisfied on using a top 5 pick on a bottom pairing defenseman? Probably not but that's assuming that what Schenn is right now is all he'll ever be. That's an entirely separate discussion.

Schenn being a "bad pick" is ultimately going to depend on him as a finished product, not what he is now. For him to be seen as a good pick in your eyes he'd have had to have been terrific by now which isn't particularly realistic.

 

[Tigger]

Outside of Kaberle, the Leafs haven't drafted anything particularly special anywhere in the draft.

For defencemen? Yeah, not much, outside of Kabs the only one that comes to mind is Randy Carlyle.

 

[Kin]

Outside of Kaberle, the Leafs haven't drafted anything particularly special anywhere in the draft.

For defencemen? Yeah, not much, outside of Kabs the only one that comes to mind is Randy Carlyle.

I just meant in the time frame being discussed. The best defenseman is probably Kabs and the best forward is probably either Boyes or Antro.

 

[Tigger]

Outside of Kaberle, the Leafs haven't drafted anything particularly special anywhere in the draft.

For defencemen? Yeah, not much, outside of Kabs the only one that comes to mind is Randy Carlyle.

I just meant in the time frame being discussed. The best defenseman is probably Kabs and the best forward is probably either Boyes or Antro.

Ah, right, I guess '76 was a while ago.

 

[Tigger]

I was flipping through some of those draft years, funny, I remember Bruce Boudreau and Ron Wilson had been drafted in the same year but I didn't realize Ken Holland was drafted by the Leafs that year too.

I know, more useless trivia.

 

[princedpw]

Not really. Galchenyuk is slotted to go between 5-8 so we can get him with our current pick. We would need to make a trade with Columbus for the 1st overall. Schenn, Kadri and 2nd rounder would get it done.

I don't think Columbus would make that deal.  I wouldn't if I were them.

 

[maplesyrup]

I'm leaning towards keeping the pick and drafting a guy with more upside but there was talk earlier in the season (when we were in a far worse slot) that Bellville's C Brendan Gaunce could be a potential Burke target. I don't know, if the brass truly likes him I'm wondering if Washington might be inclined to trade picks #11 and #16 for our #5. - Not sure if that's exactly even or not. Anyway, maybe there's an outside chance Faska slips to #11 and if not Gaunce seems an interesting prospect. - Who knows what you then do with pick #16. Anyway, like I said, I'm leaning towards hitting a homer than two doubles or one double and a triple in this draft but maybe trading back exists as an option here.

 

[Tigger]

Not really. Galchenyuk is slotted to go between 5-8 so we can get him with our current pick. We would need to make a trade with Columbus for the 1st overall. Schenn, Kadri and 2nd rounder would get it done.

I don't think Columbus would make that deal.  I wouldn't if I were them.

Yeah, I think Columbus would trade down but trading the pick outright would take something special, same goes for the other 3  in the top 5 as of now.

If he wants to try Burke might be able to trade for a lower first rounder and try flipping it up, might take a few deals for that to happen, though he's done it in the past.

I would not be into trading next years first to get it rolling though, like he did with the Sedins (McCabe and a first for the 4th overall from Chicago that year)

 

[Fanatic]

This is a really good site for up to date mock drafts and I agree with their prediction:

http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

1. Yakupov is the obvious choice for Columbus.
2. Edmonton is desperate for D and Dumba is a stud.
3. Montreal needs Center and Grigorenko seems to be the best available and he played in the QMJHL. Good fit.
4. Islanders need defence also and will take the next best available and a great puck mover in Murray.
5. Leafs should have a choice between Galchenyuk and Forsberg. Many have said that Galchenyuk would have challenged for #1 with Yakupov but was injured for most of the season which caused the drop. Big Centerman which the Leafs desperately need!

When I read the synopsis of Grigorenko vs. the one on Galchenyuk you see a wide gap between 3 and 5. I am still struggling with what could have been......

 

[maplesyrup]

When I read the synopsis of Grigorenko vs. the one on Galchenyuk you see a wide gap between 3 and 5. I am still struggling with what could have been......

Forget about it and move on... Please?  :-\