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Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now

OldTimeHockey said:
Regression to what? a 4th line centre that kills penalties?

I feel like I've already answered this...

Frank E said:
OldTimeHockey said:
You're guessing they'll regress. The leafs coaching staff are guessing they'll show progress. You guys should make a bet or something.

I said they'll regress back to their normal great AHL player selves.

They've been that for years.

 
https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1178671950924828673

Y'all know what this means!

Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander
Kapanen - Tavares - Marner
Mikheyev - Kerfoot - Moore
Timashov - Gauthier - Spezza
Shore

Muzzin - Barrie
Rielly - Ceci
Sandin - Liljegren
Marincin- Holl
 
Liljegren's still on the roster too. Maybe that's for cap/LTIR-ish reasons though. I doubt they have him sit in the pressbox.
 
It's interesting how big of a turnover of players that is. Basically an all new bottom 6 bar 1.5 players (Gauthier and Moore) and then an all new defence bar 2.5 players (Rielly, Muzzin and Marincin)
 
Frank E said:
herman said:
Yeah we have a different definition of regression.

We do?  How do you misunderstand it then?

Correct me if I'm wrong: you say regression as in 'to regress', i.e. the opposite of 'to progress'.

I say regression as in, return to normalized levels, and that Gauthier and Marincin are already playing at their new normalized levels as nothing they've done has been luck-driven.
 
Arn said:
It's interesting how big of a turnover of players that is. Basically an all new bottom 6 bar 1.5 players (Gauthier and Moore) and then an all new defence bar 2.5 players (Rielly, Muzzin and Marincin)

This is what our roster looked like last opening night. Bold are gone, italicized are injured:

Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Marleau-Matthews-Ennis
Leivo-Kadri-Brown
Johnsson-Lindholm-Kapanen

Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott-Ozhiganov

Andersen
Sparks
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Liljegren's still on the roster too. Maybe that's for cap/LTIR-ish reasons though. I doubt they have him sit in the pressbox.

I think it's just the 9-gamer until Dermott gets back.

With final cuts, I think it's time to transition to an in-season thread.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Arn said:
It's interesting how big of a turnover of players that is. Basically an all new bottom 6 bar 1.5 players (Gauthier and Moore) and then an all new defence bar 2.5 players (Rielly, Muzzin and Marincin)

This is what our roster looked like last opening night. Bold are gone, italicized are injured:

Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Marleau-Matthews-Ennis
Leivo-Kadri-Brown
Johnsson-Lindholm-Kapanen

Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott-Ozhiganov

Andersen
Sparks

The existence of Lindholm had completely vanished from my memory
 
herman said:
Correct me if I'm wrong: you say regression as in 'to regress', i.e. the opposite of 'to progress'.

I say regression as in, return to normalized levels, and that Gauthier and Marincin are already playing at their new normalized levels as nothing they've done has been luck-driven.

Not sure I'd call a 71.43 CF% during the pre-season sustainable. But I think what Frank basically just means is that Gauthier's looked good in pre-season because it's pre-season and the only players actually putting massive amounts of effort in are fringe players like Gauthier. It's why I can't even really compare his performance to Spezza's even when they're playing the same minutes/role. Spezza's a 17 year veteran, yeah maybe his spot isn't 100% locked down but he treats training camp/pre-season differently to someone like Gauthier.

If the Goat still looks good a month into the season against actual NHL competition in games that actually matter, I'll be pleasantly surprised. But I have my doubts that'll be the case. And also like we've sorta looked into already it probably won't even matter because the Leafs are stuck with him as one of their 12 forwards as long as they want Sandin on the team.
 
herman said:
Frank E said:
herman said:
Yeah we have a different definition of regression.

We do?  How do you misunderstand it then?

Correct me if I'm wrong: you say regression as in 'to regress', i.e. the opposite of 'to progress'.

I say regression as in, return to normalized levels, and that Gauthier and Marincin are already playing at their new normalized levels as nothing they've done has been luck-driven.

I don't know if there's a right answer here, but I think a slight flaw in your view is that you're relying too much on luck as a an explanation for any deviation from their "normalized levels." There's so much more than just luck that goes into a variance. Additionally, their normalized level (what I would prefer to call "expected levels") aren't constant (but you allude to this given you state "new" levels.)

For what it's worth, I have a higher opinion of Marincin than Frank, but I somewhat agree with his assessment about Gauthier.
 
https://twitter.com/Jessturr/status/1178677653420859392

Yeah, I do think this is why Liljegren is still there then. His higher than league minimum salary means the Leafs can maximize slightly more of the LTIR benefit than having a guy making $700k around would. Wouldn't be entirely surprised to see him sent down sometime later this week.
 
herman said:
Frank E said:
herman said:
Yeah we have a different definition of regression.

We do?  How do you misunderstand it then?

Correct me if I'm wrong: you say regression as in 'to regress', i.e. the opposite of 'to progress'.

I say regression as in, return to normalized levels, and that Gauthier and Marincin are already playing at their new normalized levels as nothing they've done has been luck-driven.

"New Normalized" is probably a term that doesn't have a good definition...it's almost contradictory.

Marincin played himself off this roster this past season, and Gauthier shouldn't have been there but for the Leafs' lack of centre depth.

It seems that the past few years, some people get excited that Gauthier found another step, or that Marincin is going to make this the season where he establishes himself as a shutdown guy.  They, among other hopefuls, have a couple of good games while trying to earn a job, and they both have the physical tools.  People get excited because they're hopeful for these underdogs.

But not me.  They've typically regressed back to their play that should net them a nice AHL career.  Nice guys, I'm sure, but it's time for a new experiment in those spots. 

Like Frog and Carlton said, Dubas painted himself into a corner here with the cap, and Gauthier and Marincin are cheap devils that Babcock knows.  But I still don't like it, and I'm disappointed.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
https://twitter.com/Jessturr/status/1178677653420859392

Yeah, I do think this is why Liljegren is still there then. His higher than league minimum salary means the Leafs can maximize slightly more of the LTIR benefit than having a guy making $700k around would. Wouldn't be entirely surprised to see him sent down sometime later this week.

That's something I don't understand about LTIR. If the Leafs are going to be into it all season long why does it matter if they're into it a little or a lot? Obviously there's a reason otherwise they wouldn't have traded for Clarkson or kept Liljegren up now but it's beyond my comprehension.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
https://twitter.com/Jessturr/status/1178677653420859392

Yeah, I do think this is why Liljegren is still there then. His higher than league minimum salary means the Leafs can maximize slightly more of the LTIR benefit than having a guy making $700k around would. Wouldn't be entirely surprised to see him sent down sometime later this week.

https://twitter.com/CapFriendly/status/1178686438906454016

Even closer than what that guy tweeted.

Also, Liljegren on the roster still is for cap/LTIR calculation reasons AND if they wanted to claim someone on waivers he could be sent down tomorrow without having to clear waivers. 
 

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