Unofficial 2012/2013 Armchair GM

[bustaheims]

I don't think they are making any progress. They're a little bit worse offensively and a little bit better defensively. Its like they traded dog poop for cat poop. At the end of the day, poop is poop.

Actually, they're roughly the same offensively while, over the course of the season so far, being a significant ways better defensively. They haven't been great for the past 8-10 games, but, overall, they're a significantly improved team.

 

[bustaheims]

This talk of blowing it up is unnecessarily reactionary. The team has his a rough stretch. It happens. And, yeah, some changes need to be made before they become more than the bubble team that they are now. No one realistic is going to tell you any differently. What the team needs to do is figure out who can be part of the team taking the next step and who can't, and go from there. Some pieces we might want to hold onto may need to go and some pieces we might think need to go will stay, but, blowing it up is not the answer here.

 

[Britishbulldog]

If I'm Nonis I'm blowing up the whole team. I keep Frattin, Kadri, Phaneuf and the goalies. Everyone else is gone.

How do you blow up a team with such a young average age? Where do you go from there.

If I'm Nonis, I stay the course and wait for the Gardiner's and Reilly's to start contributing and then see where you're at.

I am pretty sure he is joking about blowing up the team.

- The forwards are relatively young and play with some skill and tenacity. 
- The goaltending seems quite inexperienced and are terrible handling the puck but are playing better than we have seen in a few years.
-The defense is supposed to be the depth position of the team but is the weakest link this year.  I understand what the Leafs are doing though.  This year isn't when they are expecting to win the Stanley Cup, they seem to be seeing what they have in players.  That is the only explanation for leaving Kotska, Holzer, and all in the line up to evaluate the Marlies while putting Liles in the press box.

Of the top nine forwards the only player I still wonder if the value is there is Grabovski at $5.5 until 2017.  If there was a decent return for Grabovski I would tempted to use Kadri, Bozak, Colborne and McClement next year.

For the defense I would love to see Phaneuf as the 2nd dman on the 1st pairing paired with a top defensive dman, Gardiner or Liles on the 2nd pairing with a defensive dman (Holzer, Kotska, etc) and Fraser and Franson as the 3rd pairing.

***since I started this post this morning the red 'Warning' says there is 17 posts so I probably just repeated what others said.

 

[azzurri63]

For the most part and I have said this earlier this year the team is heading in the right direction. Does Nonis need to blow this up? No. Still maintain the offence is fine. I think with everyone healthy the top 3 lines are fine. Could they be better? Of course but I feel we have 3 decent scoring line. If Grabo's line can pick it up we look decent. Don't think he is being used right. Defense is where I still think there could be improvement. I said Kostka and Fraser would not last the whole season and still think thats going to be the case. Holzer I think is a good 6 or 7th d man. Stay at home guy who shouldn't be playing the minutes he is. Still feel he will get better but I like him better than Fraser because of his mobility. Where I have said and still think the problem lies is our team defence. Team gives up too many shots and good chances on a nightly basis and it cant be blamed on the D solely its everyone. Disagree with some that think the D has been good or great till now. Team was giving up the same chances all year. I think Scrivens and Reimer were playing very well first 20 games or so that covered up most of the problems. Don't think the goaltending is our problem. Still don't know why Gardiner isn't playing. If the concussion is the problem then fine. Don't know how I guy can get such high praise, reviews last year to the point of being an untouchable and this year having trouble cracking the lineup. Somethings going on we don't know about. Hopefully we don't take a page from previous years and ruin another player and trade them off only to see him excel elsewhere. The team has shown they can win and let's remember we had some key components out with injury. I think with a little tweaking by Nonis and some better overall play we should make the playoffs. Time will tell.

 

[leafplasma]

I think that out of Kostka, Holzer and Fraser, Fraser would be the guy that should stick.  In my eyes there is a lot to like with in having him on the bottom pairing and I really hope he is retained next year.  Kostka/Komi spend the time in the press box to ride out this season.  I would work Komi in on occassion though and see how he does in the Carlyle system in place of Holzer.  If we do see Gardiner this year, Holzer is the odd man out being safely sent to the Marlies but Holzer will be back next year as the 7th guy.  Kostka and Komi well be gone next season.  Reilly should get a full year with the Marlies next season, I highly doubt he cracks the Leafs with the way they like to get their kids time with the Marlies which is a good thing.

 

[TML fan]

If I'm Nonis I'm blowing up the whole team. I keep Frattin, Kadri, Phaneuf and the goalies. Everyone else is gone.

You don't end up with a better team, even long term, if you blow it up after any prolonged losing streak. You subtract and add from what you have. Blowing everything up puts you back at the starting line every time. I just don't get this kind of logic. This is one of the youngest teams in the league, and finally appear to be making progress. Blow it up and you have nothing for another 3-4 years, and then might end up with as good of team as they have today. Might.

I don't think they are making any progress. They're a little bit worse offensively and a little bit better defensively. Its like they traded dog poop for cat poop. At the end of the day, poop is poop.

Is that really the case?

I have the impression (I don't know the stats of last year) that they're very good offensively. Better than last year maybe.

They're currently 5th in the league with a couple extra GP on some teams under them (2.96 GPG). They're definitely a top 10 team in GPG on the season.

They're also currently in 17th place in GAA @ 2.77. Also better than last year IIRC.

The stats so far say they're a markedly better team (again, to this point in the season). This without Lupul for the majority of the season, and the loss of Schenn on D from a defensive standpoint.

I get you're upset about a 5 game losing streak, but I don't see it's trading "dog poop for cat poop". The team's better, has many new faces in the lineup (especially on D) and are currently in the playoff race. Hardly a reason to blow it up in the hope of landing a Mackinnon or Jones.

Stats don't tell the whole story. I think that the Leafs are an opportunistic team that relies heavily on mistakes to generate offence, and that early in this lockout shortened season, the opportunities were presenting themselves with greater frequency than they are now. I think that the players have bought in to Carlyle's defensive system but I'm not convinced that they are really capable of executing it consistently over the long term. Carlyle has been trying to fit square pegs into round holes all year and now i believe its starting to catch up to them. There is a huge divide between the way this team is built and the way they are coached and those problems aren't 1 or 2 players away from being fixed. Carlyle is asking players to play a way they aren't accustomed or suited to play. It's like trying to heat your house with an air conditioner. It's just not designed to do that. I think Carlyle is doing the best he can with the group he's got, but ultimately I don't think this group has what it takes to play hockey the way Carlyle wants over the long term and be successful, and that's why I'm in favour of blowing it up.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The team needs a shutdown type, stay at home defenceman. Fraser does this well but is a 3rd pairing talent at best. With the team having many offensive type dmen (Liles, Franson, Gardiner) and Gunnarsson and Holzer showing holes in their game too many opponents are left alone in front of the net. I don't know how you label Phanuef. Some games he looks good defensively; others he looks lost. Some games he makes nice offensive plays and others he looks like he panics and fires the puck away randomly. If Nonis could pick up a talented stay at home dman it would help in the 2nd half. 

I really think this should be very high on Nonis' priority list in the summer. Ideally our defence should look something like this next season:

Gunnarsson-Phaneuf
Gardiner-x
Fraser-Franson
Kostka/Holzer

Buy-out Komisarek. Liles is fine but will be redundant once Gardiner makes the team. I think he still has hockey left in him and if he continues to get playing time for the rest of the season I think we could find a team to take him in the offseason. I know some are griping about Gunnarsson, but once his injury fully heals I think he'll be able to the reliable player he was previously.

x is a defensive or two-way right handed defenceman. The problem is, that type of defenceman doesn't grow on trees. Looking at the free agent market, there really isn't a match. There's a few stay-at-home guys like Scuderi and Murray but they're getting up there in age and are lefties. A trade would likely be necessary. Maybe Nonis can find a decent hockey trade here and move Liles to a team that has the opposite problem.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I don't think they are making any progress. They're a little bit worse offensively and a little bit better defensively. Its like they traded dog poop for cat poop. At the end of the day, poop is poop.

Actually, they're roughly the same offensively while, over the course of the season so far, being a significant ways better defensively. They haven't been great for the past 8-10 games, but, overall, they're a significantly improved team.

Unfortunately not significantly improved in the wins and losses.

 

[Rebel_1812]

If I'm Nonis I'm blowing up the whole team. I keep Frattin, Kadri, Phaneuf and the goalies. Everyone else is gone.

I'd keep Lupul over Phaneuf. JVR is also pretty young and talented.

Unless the return is pretty huge for some pieces on this team (I doubt many teams would pony up what we'd all think is fair value) there's really no point to blowing it up.

I'd move Grabbo, Kuli, Mac,  any D man not named Gardiner, and maybe Kessel. Thing is we'd get cents on the dollar for most of them and where does that get us?

There are at least 4 guys worth 1st round picks at the trade deadline. Start from scratch. This team isn't built for Carlyle hockey, and I don't see Nonis dumping the coach.

It will take 4 years for most of those guys to make it to the NHL let alone make an impact at the NHL.  That is why Burke didn't blow up the team last year. Basically your signing on to 4 more years of losing.

 

[caver]

I really think this should be very high on Nonis' priority list in the summer. Ideally our defence should look something like this next season:

Gunnarsson-Phaneuf
Gardiner-x
Fraser-Franson
Kostka/Holzer

Buy-out Komisarek. Liles is fine but will be redundant once Gardiner makes the team. I think he still has hockey left in him and if he continues to get playing time for the rest of the season I think we could find a team to take him in the offseason. I know some are griping about Gunnarsson, but once his injury fully heals I think he'll be able to the reliable player he was previously.


[/quote]

Agreed. This would work well if they can get a solid defensive guy and if Gunnar plays well.

 

[maplesyrup]

Agreed, CTB. Good post.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I think that out of Kostka, Holzer and Fraser, Fraser would be the guy that should stick.  In my eyes there is a lot to like with in having him on the bottom pairing and I really hope he is retained next year.

Fraser definitely has the unique talent amoungst the 3 players of being a heavyweight fighter that can play bottom 3 minutes and not hurt the team. I really hope he is kept as well but it was Holzer who was re-signed already, who I do like but feel is the weakest of the 3.

Kostka/Komi spend the time in the press box to ride out this season.  I would work Komi in on occassion though and see how he does in the Carlyle system in place of Holzer. 

On paper Komisarek is the exact dman I am hoping the leafs get: 6'4", rh shot, plays physical but doesn't have to fight and strong enough to clear the front of the net.  Like Liles, I hope that the Marlies dmen are being played infront of Komi because they are trying to access them and feel they know what Komi brings to the table already.  I really, really wish that Komi was salvageable.

Reilly should get a full year with the Marlies next season, I highly doubt he cracks the Leafs with the way they like to get their kids time with the Marlies which is a good thing.

I really hope the Leafs do the 'Kadri' with Reilly and leave him on the Marlies for a few years to mature and dominate.  With Phanuef, Gardiner, Franson and possibly Liles on the Leafs next year and all having an offensive upside I see no need to rush Reilly unless 2 of those 4 players aren't on the Leafs next October.

 

[Corn Flake]

I really hope the Leafs do the 'Kadri' with Reilly and leave him on the Marlies for a few years to mature and dominate.  With Phanuef, Gardiner, Franson and possibly Liles on the Leafs next year and all having an offensive upside I see no need to rush Reilly unless 2 of those 4 players aren't on the Leafs next October.

Me too, except we will have to listen to a few years of media & fans going bonkers over the fact he isn't called up, a la Kadri and now Gardiner.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I really hope the Leafs do the 'Kadri' with Reilly and leave him on the Marlies for a few years to mature and dominate.  With Phanuef, Gardiner, Franson and possibly Liles on the Leafs next year and all having an offensive upside I see no need to rush Reilly unless 2 of those 4 players aren't on the Leafs next October.

Me too, except we will have to listen to a few years of media & fans going bonkers over the fact he isn't called up, a la Kadri and now Gardiner.

And then saying he was rushed if brought up.

 

[Zee]

Although I generally agree with the "Kadri thing" on Rielly, it really varies player to player.  If Rielly shows he belongs in the NHL in 1 year then he should be playing.

 

[bustaheims]

Unfortunately not significantly improved in the wins and losses.

One step at a time, Potvin.

 

[bustaheims]

Although I generally agree with the "Kadri thing" on Rielly, it really varies player to player.  If Rielly shows he belongs in the NHL in 1 year then he should be playing.

Only if he shows he belongs at both ends of the ice, though. If his offence is great and his defence is subpar, then I'd leave him in junior or with the Marlies (I think he may have to go back for another year in junior, but, I'm not 100% sure).

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Although I generally agree with the "Kadri thing" on Rielly, it really varies player to player.  If Rielly shows he belongs in the NHL in 1 year then he should be playing.

Only if he shows he belongs at both ends of the ice, though. If his offence is great and his defence is subpar, then I'd leave him in junior or with the Marlies (I think he may have to go back for another year in junior, but, I'm not 100% sure).

Next season he can only play with the Leafs or go back to junior.

 

[Corn Flake]

Although I generally agree with the "Kadri thing" on Rielly, it really varies player to player.  If Rielly shows he belongs in the NHL in 1 year then he should be playing.

Only if he shows he belongs at both ends of the ice, though. If his offence is great and his defence is subpar, then I'd leave him in junior or with the Marlies (I think he may have to go back for another year in junior, but, I'm not 100% sure).

From what I have seen of Rielly, defense isn't going to be a big issue in the sense of him not being a typical high-risk offensive d-man. He is pretty mature there, relative to most 18 year olds.  He is also physically strong enough already, something I think Carlyle noted at camp. 

I think he is going to make it real tough on them to send him back to junior next year, but they probably should anyway.

 

[Deebo]

I really hope the Leafs do the 'Kadri' with Reilly and leave him on the Marlies for a few years to mature and dominate.  With Phanuef, Gardiner, Franson and possibly Liles on the Leafs next year and all having an offensive upside I see no need to rush Reilly unless 2 of those 4 players aren't on the Leafs next October.

Me too, except we will have to listen to a few years of media & fans going bonkers over the fact he isn't called up, a la Kadri and now Gardiner.

I think they should evaluate each player individually and if he is ready for the NHL, they should let him play in the NHL.

I don't think they should "rush" him, but I also don't think they should play him in the AHL/WHL if he is ready for the NHL.