Who are the Leafs better than?
- Thread starter Kin
- Start date
On paper, this roster is bad - as it should be since we need another top end pick in 2016. On paper, Buffalo and Edmonton have probably passed us and we lost our best offensive weapon who was essentially replaced by PA Parenteau. On paper - We have to be worse than last year.
This is the problem though - on paper, I didn't think last year's roster was worthy of 4th last (I don't think many did) - maybe not playoff good, but certainly not 4th worst. That was the most frustrating part of last year - the quit. If this year's team doesn't quit, and listens to their coach from a defensive perspective, and if the many players who are highly motivated to perform well actually do perform well (Kadri/Bernier/some 1 year guys) - who knows what can happen.
If this team is performing better than expected, we need to trade some key guys at the deadline or preferably before, as a top end pick is imperative as an outcome this season. Its imperative for the future.
This is the problem though - on paper, I didn't think last year's roster was worthy of 4th last (I don't think many did) - maybe not playoff good, but certainly not 4th worst. That was the most frustrating part of last year - the quit. If this year's team doesn't quit, and listens to their coach from a defensive perspective, and if the many players who are highly motivated to perform well actually do perform well (Kadri/Bernier/some 1 year guys) - who knows what can happen.
If this team is performing better than expected, we need to trade some key guys at the deadline or preferably before, as a top end pick is imperative as an outcome this season. Its imperative for the future.
Highlander
Active member
The Raptors???
Thought that this was an interesting topic so I split it off from the Lou thread, sorry for any confusion!
I'd add Carolina to the mix too. Salary isn't everything but their 4th and 5th highest paid forwards this coming season are Nathan Gerbe and Jay McClement. The Staal's and Skinner will basically have to have monster seasons to get them out of the bottom-5. I do like their defence though. Wisniewski and Hanifin could have a big impact on their 2nd pairing.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
I'd say there's probably a handful of teams where it's a toss up whether the Leafs finish ahead or behind them. Teams like Arizona, Philly, Carolina, New Jersey. Wouldn't be surprised with how any combination of those teams + the Leafs finishes.
Kin
New member
pmrules said:
But why? It was essentially the same roster of a team that, the previous year, had finished 8th worst and had made really minor changes over the summer(Polak for Gunnar, Robidas in, Santorelli in, Raymond out, McClement out, Winnik in).
I think that if you ignore the typical tendency that fans will have to be optimistic about an upcoming season and look back on it with hindsight, it's pretty clear the Leafs roster was one of the worst in the league.
herman
Well-known member
Nik the Trik said:
I think we're in the same pool of talent as: Arizona, Carolina, New Jersey, Vancouver, maybe Philadelphia; i.e. in the mix for bottom-5 but not quite 2014/15 Buffalo guaranteed last.
Post-deadline though, when we're just cap anchors, salary dumps, and Rielly (maybe), that'll be a formidable tank.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Nik the Trik said:
And if they get any goaltending.
Nik the Trik said:
Well, I maybe wrong, but I don't think there were many that honestly predicted a bottom 5 finish last year, even with those changes. Even those "really minor" changes should have made 8th last the starting point for 2014/2015, because it made them no worse than the prior year. "The quit" helped us immensely in the draft - but I don't believe it was a true reflection of the roster. They were a bad team that should have finished in that no mans land of not quite bad enough to get a top end player in the draft and not good enough to make the playoffs (like 8-12th worse or so - like the last year).
I don't think there were many (if any) who even predicted a bottom 5 finish even when Carlyle was fired when they had that playoff spot. I remember when that 2015 draft thread opened up, some folks were really excited about the options available at the ~10th overall pick (which was roughly in the range with where they finished the year before).
Kin
New member
pmrules said:
But like I said, a lot of people around here will always be optimistic with their predictions. There's a lot of "well, if X, Y and Z all happen then the Leafs could be right in the mix!" without realizing that every team has a similar X, Y and Z.
You say that the changes should have made 8th worst the lowpoint but that essentially assumes that any player on the Leafs who had a good year in 2013-14 was incapable of being worse the next year when we know that players ebb and flow.
It would have been unreasonable for anyone to look at Bernier's 2013-2014 numbers and say "Well, he'll be that good forever then".
Kin
New member
herman said:
Well, first, I think people seriously need to take a second look at who the Flyers have at forward. The Flyers have at least three players I think are better than anyone on the Leafs.
Secondly, I think saying the team is "in the same pool" as the worst teams in the league gives them as good a chance as anyone as finishing dead last which, really, is all Buffalo had last year.
Last season was a particularly bad year for bottom-5 teams too, that's something to keep in mind. These are the point totals for the 5th place team in the past 8 seasons:
14/15: 71 points
13/14: 79 points
12/13: 72 points*
11/12: 80 points
10/11: 74 points
09/10: 79 points
08/09: 79 points
07/08: 79 points
So even if the Leafs add 10 points to their total from last season there's a chance they could still be in the bottom-5.
14/15: 71 points
13/14: 79 points
12/13: 72 points*
11/12: 80 points
10/11: 74 points
09/10: 79 points
08/09: 79 points
07/08: 79 points
So even if the Leafs add 10 points to their total from last season there's a chance they could still be in the bottom-5.
Frank E
Active member
herman said:
As long as we're just speculating, I don't think Vancouver or Philly look as bad as the others you've noted.
Vancouver still has that top line together and has some sandpaper there, a young gun in Horvat, and Edler/Tanev/Hamhuis/Sbisa is quite a bit nicer than the Leafs' top four, and Luongo in net.
Philly with Voracek and Giroux outpace anyone left in the Leafs' forward ranks, and again, their defense looks a heck of a lot better than the Leafs', and Mason > Bernier or Reimer.
Also this is completely random/off-topic but while checking those bottom-5 finishes I noticed something very weird in the lockout-shortened season. So much so that I actually decided to double-check with another source to make sure the information on NHL.com was correct.
Carolina and Calgary finished 5th and 6th last that year. They had identical records of 19-25-4. Calgary finished higher because they had just 1 more ROW than Carolina did, 19 to 18. IF that had been tied though, the next tie-breaker would have been points earned in games between the two teams. But Carolina and Calgary never played each other that season because that season was all inter-conference play. So the next tie-breaker after that would have been greater goal differential. Well, they both finished with 128 goals for and 160 goals against. That's crazy. I wonder how they would have decided that if ROW's were the same.
Carolina and Calgary finished 5th and 6th last that year. They had identical records of 19-25-4. Calgary finished higher because they had just 1 more ROW than Carolina did, 19 to 18. IF that had been tied though, the next tie-breaker would have been points earned in games between the two teams. But Carolina and Calgary never played each other that season because that season was all inter-conference play. So the next tie-breaker after that would have been greater goal differential. Well, they both finished with 128 goals for and 160 goals against. That's crazy. I wonder how they would have decided that if ROW's were the same.