Who are the Leafs better than?

[Kin]

Exactly - Players ebb and flow - that's why 8th is the starting point.  They either flow up or down based on player performance - and based on the minor moves you talked about, 8th (give or take) is where they should have landed at the end, provided that players are at least consistent.

That only works logically if you forget that there are other teams in the league and their talent levels might vary from year to year. The Leafs being the 8th worst team in the league one year and not improving substantially does not mean they'll be the 8th worst team in the league the next year because other teams will improve and push the Leafs down further which is exactly what happened.

The Islanders are a perfect example. The Leafs didn't make any major additions, the Islanders added a bunch of new defensemen and a new starting goalie and they were much better than the Leafs.

Remember, this is a league that pushes teams towards the center. The teams that get worse are at the top usually and the teams that improve are at the bottom. So if a team is a bottom 10 team, like the Leafs in 2013-2014, and they don't substantially improve then they're likely to be worse the next year relative to the league.

People not predicting that is only a reflection of the fact that, surprisingly, Leafs fans don't always have the best grips on what other teams are doing.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Streit vs. Phaneuf
Del Zotto vs. Polak
MacDonald vs. Gardiner
Shultz vs. Rielly
Schenn vs. Robidas

Well, Gardiner and Rielly are both substantially better than their counterparts. Schenn and Robidas is probably even. Del Zotto gets the edge on Polak offensively, but Polak's better defensively - so that's probably a saw-off as well. Streit's more mobile that Phaneuf and will probably put up more points, but not as physical. I'd give him the slight edge, but, of the 5, he's the only one I'd say is arguably a better all-round option than their Leaf counterpart.

This might be a little nik-picky but I wouldn't expect Polak to be 2nd in ice-time for the team next season. In the 2nd half of the season the ice-time went Phaneuf-Rielly-(Franson)-Gardiner-Polak, and I'd expect Babcock to continue that. So I'd expect it to be a little something more like this:

Streit vs. Phaneuf
Del Zotto vs. Rielly
MacDonald vs. Gardiner
Schultz vs. Polak
Schenn vs. Marincin

And aside from the #1's (unless of course Streit starts to show his age, he'll turn 38 mid-season) I take the Leaf guy in all of those match-ups pretty easily.

 

[Frank E]

Streit vs. Phaneuf
Del Zotto vs. Polak
MacDonald vs. Gardiner
Shultz vs. Rielly
Schenn vs. Robidas

Well, Gardiner and Rielly are both substantially better than their counterparts. Schenn and Robidas is probably even. Del Zotto gets the edge on Polak offensively, but Polak's better defensively - so that's probably a saw-off as well. Streit's more mobile that Phaneuf and will probably put up more points, but not as physical. I'd give him the slight edge, but, of the 5, he's the only one I'd say is arguably a better all-round option than their Leaf counterpart.

This might be a little nik-picky but I wouldn't expect Polak to be 2nd in ice-time for the team next season. In the 2nd half of the season the ice-time went Phaneuf-Rielly-(Franson)-Gardiner-Polak, and I'd expect Babcock to continue that. So I'd expect it to be a little something more like this:

Streit vs. Phaneuf
Del Zotto vs. Rielly
MacDonald vs. Gardiner
Schultz vs. Polak
Schenn vs. Marincin

And aside from the #1's (unless of course Streit starts to show his age, he'll turn 38 mid-season) I take the Leaf guy in all of those match-ups pretty easily.

Both of you are still pretty high on Gardiner...I guess I don't share your optimism there.

Rielly is still so young that I think there's lots of upside there, but Gardiner is 25. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Both of you are still pretty high on Gardiner...I guess I don't share your optimism there.

Rielly is still so young that I think there's lots of upside there, but Gardiner is 25. 

Don't worry Frank, it's nothing to be ashamed of. You'll come around eventually.

 

[Kin]

Either way, the Leafs defense vs. the Flyers defense is at least a conversation. It would take a full-fledged crazy person to think the Leafs had better forwards than the Flyers.

 

[herman]

Other than Robidas, I think the Leafs have a pretty good defense corps just missing a bonafide 1D. We could have a similar conversation about Leafs vs. Vancouver/New Jersey/Carolina/Buffalo/Columbus/etc. defense.

Last year, it was the Forwards that got the most ice-time (and the Carlyle-style) that really helped crater our defensive play because the D and goaltender were rarely ever supported.

 

[bustaheims]

Both of you are still pretty high on Gardiner...I guess I don't share your optimism there.

Rielly is still so young that I think there's lots of upside there, but Gardiner is 25.

It's less about being high on Gardiner and more about how bad MacDonald really is. He's put up big hit and shot blocking totals when he was an Islander, but that's really because the other team has the puck much more than his does when he's on the ice - which is, you know, a really bad thing. The opposite has largely been true about Gardiner - his possession numbers have tended to be excellent.

 

[Highlander]

I am really hoping that this new staff can infuse Gardiner with more confidence,  4 years ago in Tampa he was a force in that game.  He needs to find that again with a better defensive poster

 

[Kin]

Other than Robidas, I think the Leafs have a pretty good defense corps just missing a bonafide 1D. We could have a similar conversation about Leafs vs. Vancouver/New Jersey/Carolina/Buffalo/Columbus/etc. defense.

Which, again, is kind of the point. You can have a conversation about where the Leafs D ranks among the worst defenses of the league but really all of those teams with the possible exception of New Jersey has a significantly better group of forwards.

So, basically, the Leafs' strength is on a par with some of the other worst teams in the league's weakness.

 

[Frank E]

Other than Robidas, I think the Leafs have a pretty good defense corps just missing a bonafide 1D. We could have a similar conversation about Leafs vs. Vancouver/New Jersey/Carolina/Buffalo/Columbus/etc. defense.

I just can't agree with the bolded part...and the second part kind of flies in the face of the first sentence.  It suggests that the Leafs have as good of a defense as the bottom feeders of the league, save Vancouver?

 

[herman]

Haha, didn't phrase that very well (or punctuate either). Let me posit it this way instead: ignoring every team's 1D, how does Toronto's D rank?

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Both of you are still pretty high on Gardiner...I guess I don't share your optimism there.

Rielly is still so young that I think there's lots of upside there, but Gardiner is 25.

It's less about being high on Gardiner and more about how bad MacDonald really is. He's put up big hit and shot blocking totals when he was an Islander, but that's really because the other team has the puck much more than his does when he's on the ice - which is, you know, a really bad thing. The opposite has largely been true about Gardiner - his possession numbers have tended to be excellent.

Wow, I didn't realize he had 5 years left on his deal.  That's really terrible. As far as Gardiner goes, it will be interesting to see what Babcock can get out of him, and what he does with him in terms of ice time/situations.

 

[rdowdall]

Either way, the Leafs defense vs. the Flyers defense is at least a conversation. It would take a full-fledged crazy person to think the Leafs had better forwards than the Flyers.

Cue the crazies in 3, 2, 1....

 

[Highlander]

Good article in the Star today regarding Shawn Matthias, I think we could all agree what he is saying is music to our ears. 

http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2015/08/05/leafs-shawn-matthias-hopes-to-stretch-homecoming-as-long-as-he-can.html

 

[Al14]

Good article in the Star today regarding Shawn Matthias, I think we could all agree what he is saying is music to our ears. 

http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2015/08/05/leafs-shawn-matthias-hopes-to-stretch-homecoming-as-long-as-he-can.html

Talk is cheap.  He needs to let his actions on the ice speak for his desire to remain a Leaf!

 

[Highlander]

So are redundant posts 8)

 

[herman]

To spin off of the discussion going on in the 10-game breakdown, I thought this would be the best thread to revive and lob this article into:
http://thehockeywriters.com/despite-record-leafs-are-actually-good-and-thats-a-problem/

The Leafs are currently too good. Yes, their record is 1-7-2 and they are tied for last in the NHL.  However ? and this is really important and would raise the level of discourse surrounding the NHL if people were more aware of it ? talent doesn?t become a bigger factor in determining the standings than luck until game 73. That means that it is in no way unusual for a team to have a record that is in no way reflective of their actual play, ten games into the season, which is the situation the Leafs are in right now.

The Leafs have actually been an excellent team this year.  To wit:

• 16 players on their roster are above 50% CF.
• They are fifth in the NHL in team Corsi For.
• As a team, at 5v5, they are shooting only 6%.
• Their 98.3 PDO suggest room for improvement and bad luck.
• Both their team save % and team shooting % are bottom ten in the league and will improve.
• They are starting more of their shifts in the offensive zone than all but two other teams.
• They have allowed the fourth least high-danger scoring chances against.
• They are fifth in the NHL in positive shot differential.
• Even though they are in a virtual tie for first place in power-play possession, their PP has not scored very much.
• They are last in the NHL in PP success percentage with a 7.4% PP, a number all but guaranteed to double, because it is incredibly rare for a team to finish the season below 14%.

Everything on this list shows that the Leafs are due to start getting some puck-luck and win some games. If a team plays a high-possession game, like the Leafs do, it is highly likely they?ll be successful long-term. The power-play and team shooting/save percentages are all sure to rise and when they do, the Leafs will start winning.

The rest of the article outlines a good deal of other thoughts and conclusions. The comments are hilarious.

 

[Bender]

To spin off of the discussion going on in the 10-game breakdown, I thought this would be the best thread to revive and lob this article into:
http://thehockeywriters.com/despite-record-leafs-are-actually-good-and-thats-a-problem/

The Leafs are currently too good. Yes, their record is 1-7-2 and they are tied for last in the NHL.  However ? and this is really important and would raise the level of discourse surrounding the NHL if people were more aware of it ? talent doesn?t become a bigger factor in determining the standings than luck until game 73. That means that it is in no way unusual for a team to have a record that is in no way reflective of their actual play, ten games into the season, which is the situation the Leafs are in right now.

The Leafs have actually been an excellent team this year.  To wit:

• 16 players on their roster are above 50% CF.
• They are fifth in the NHL in team Corsi For.
• As a team, at 5v5, they are shooting only 6%.
• Their 98.3 PDO suggest room for improvement and bad luck.
• Both their team save % and team shooting % are bottom ten in the league and will improve.
• They are starting more of their shifts in the offensive zone than all but two other teams.
• They have allowed the fourth least high-danger scoring chances against.
• They are fifth in the NHL in positive shot differential.
• Even though they are in a virtual tie for first place in power-play possession, their PP has not scored very much.
• They are last in the NHL in PP success percentage with a 7.4% PP, a number all but guaranteed to double, because it is incredibly rare for a team to finish the season below 14%.

Everything on this list shows that the Leafs are due to start getting some puck-luck and win some games. If a team plays a high-possession game, like the Leafs do, it is highly likely they?ll be successful long-term. The power-play and team shooting/save percentages are all sure to rise and when they do, the Leafs will start winning.

The rest of the article outlines a good deal of other thoughts and conclusions. The comments are hilarious.

I think it's true... The numbers should bare out a better team. The team has been much better in almost every category statistically than their record indicates. Maybe they just have especially poor goaltending as of late? Maybe it's that we have one or two gaffes that are especially bad but play a good game overall?

I don't know, but this truly is a bad stretch. At the same time, I really don't want this team to compete much in the next couple of years lol.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

To spin off of the discussion going on in the 10-game breakdown, I thought this would be the best thread to revive and lob this article into:
http://thehockeywriters.com/despite-record-leafs-are-actually-good-and-thats-a-problem/

The Leafs are currently too good. Yes, their record is 1-7-2 and they are tied for last in the NHL.  However ? and this is really important and would raise the level of discourse surrounding the NHL if people were more aware of it ? talent doesn?t become a bigger factor in determining the standings than luck until game 73. That means that it is in no way unusual for a team to have a record that is in no way reflective of their actual play, ten games into the season, which is the situation the Leafs are in right now.

The Leafs have actually been an excellent team this year.  To wit:

• 16 players on their roster are above 50% CF.
• They are fifth in the NHL in team Corsi For.
• As a team, at 5v5, they are shooting only 6%.
• Their 98.3 PDO suggest room for improvement and bad luck.
• Both their team save % and team shooting % are bottom ten in the league and will improve.
• They are starting more of their shifts in the offensive zone than all but two other teams.
• They have allowed the fourth least high-danger scoring chances against.
• They are fifth in the NHL in positive shot differential.
• Even though they are in a virtual tie for first place in power-play possession, their PP has not scored very much.
• They are last in the NHL in PP success percentage with a 7.4% PP, a number all but guaranteed to double, because it is incredibly rare for a team to finish the season below 14%.

Everything on this list shows that the Leafs are due to start getting some puck-luck and win some games. If a team plays a high-possession game, like the Leafs do, it is highly likely they?ll be successful long-term. The power-play and team shooting/save percentages are all sure to rise and when they do, the Leafs will start winning.

The rest of the article outlines a good deal of other thoughts and conclusions. The comments are hilarious.

It's essentially the drum I've been banging for the past little bit on here and I had been mainly parroting it from a lot of the really good analytics minds on twitter who are convinced this team is a lot better than their record suggests right now.

I've spoken directly with a few of them and the universal conclusion has been that barring an epic sell-off in the second half, there is next to no chance that this is a bottom five team.

Thing is, a lot of people on here whose opinion I really respect, strongly disagree. The numbers make a compelling case though, so to me seeing how it plays out has quickly become the most interesting part of this season.

 

[bustaheims]

To spin off of the discussion going on in the 10-game breakdown, I thought this would be the best thread to revive and lob this article into:
http://thehockeywriters.com/despite-record-leafs-are-actually-good-and-thats-a-problem/

The rest of the article outlines a good deal of other thoughts and conclusions. The comments are hilarious.

I have a few issues with the article's conclusions. For one, I don't buy that talent doesn't become a bigger factor until game 73. Talent influences everything from day one. Secondly, it's largely based on the assumptions that the positive trends we've seen from the Leafs will continue, while the negative ones will improve. He also conveniently ignores score effects. Before the Stars' game, the Leafs were 14th in score adjusted CF. Still better than in the past, but decidedly middle of the pack. It wouldn't be that unusual for a talent poor roster in that position to have a really poor record - especially with inconsistency starting to creep back into their game, and their possession numbers starting to trend downwards over the last few games. It wouldn't shock me at all if, after game 20, the Leafs have dropped off significantly in most of the stat categories he highlights. Their Sv% and shooting percentage will improve, and that may lead to more success, but  the other stats potentially dropping off (and possibly at a fairly substantial rate), those improvements will largely be balanced out and negated.