Who are the Leafs better than?

[Frank E]

Secondly, it's largely based on the assumptions that the positive trends we've seen from the Leafs will continue, while the negative ones will improve. He also conveniently ignores score effects.

This here is where I throw a lot of it away.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

To spin off of the discussion going on in the 10-game breakdown, I thought this would be the best thread to revive and lob this article into:
http://thehockeywriters.com/despite-record-leafs-are-actually-good-and-thats-a-problem/

The rest of the article outlines a good deal of other thoughts and conclusions. The comments are hilarious.

I have a few issues with the article's conclusions. For one, I don't buy that talent doesn't become a bigger factor until game 73. Talent influences everything from day one. Secondly, it's largely based on the assumptions that the positive trends we've seen from the Leafs will continue, while the negative ones will improve. He also conveniently ignores score effects. Before the Stars' game, the Leafs were 14th in score adjusted CF. Still better than in the past, but decidedly middle of the pack. It wouldn't be that unusual for a talent poor roster in that position to have a really poor record - especially with inconsistency starting to creep back into their game, and their possession numbers starting to trend downwards over the last few games. It wouldn't shock me at all if, after game 20, the Leafs have dropped off significantly in most of the stat categories he highlights. Their Sv% and shooting percentage will improve, and that may lead to more success, but  the other stats potentially dropping off (and possibly at a fairly substantial rate), those improvements will largely be balanced out and negated.

I'd expect to see it drop somewhat just by virtue of their schedule sees them facing some of the best teams in the league/best possession teams in the league in a row.

 

[Bender]

To spin off of the discussion going on in the 10-game breakdown, I thought this would be the best thread to revive and lob this article into:
http://thehockeywriters.com/despite-record-leafs-are-actually-good-and-thats-a-problem/

The rest of the article outlines a good deal of other thoughts and conclusions. The comments are hilarious.

I have a few issues with the article's conclusions. For one, I don't buy that talent doesn't become a bigger factor until game 73. Talent influences everything from day one. Secondly, it's largely based on the assumptions that the positive trends we've seen from the Leafs will continue, while the negative ones will improve. He also conveniently ignores score effects. Before the Stars' game, the Leafs were 14th in score adjusted CF. Still better than in the past, but decidedly middle of the pack. It wouldn't be that unusual for a talent poor roster in that position to have a really poor record - especially with inconsistency starting to creep back into their game, and their possession numbers starting to trend downwards over the last few games. It wouldn't shock me at all if, after game 20, the Leafs have dropped off significantly in most of the stat categories he highlights. Their Sv% and shooting percentage will improve, and that may lead to more success, but  the other stats potentially dropping off (and possibly at a fairly substantial rate), those improvements will largely be balanced out and negated.

Yeah, and I mean if the author states that it's possible the Leafs are going through a bad stretch with good numbers I don't think it's all that unrealistic to say that the Leafs could still go through a bad stretch with bad or declining numbers.

At the end of the day you kind of wonder if the whole thing is kind of pointless due to small sample size.

 

[herman]

It's essentially the drum I've been banging for the past little bit on here and I had been mainly parroting it from a lot of the really good analytics minds on twitter who are convinced this team is a lot better than their record suggests right now.

I've spoken directly with a few of them and the universal conclusion has been that barring an epic sell-off in the second half, there is next to no chance that this is a bottom five team.

Thing is, a lot of people on here whose opinion I really respect, strongly disagree. The numbers make a compelling case though, so to me seeing how it plays out has quickly become the most interesting part of this season.

I agree the stats are compellingly positive; they're good signs that the Leafs are moving in the right direction structurally. Not sure it pulls them out of bottom-5 contention though, even when PDO regresses to the mean, as their possession stats should also regress over time. I don't think we've seen what this team's steady-state stats are just yet in order to make sweeping conclusions, and we probably won't until the season is over.

I have a few issues with the article's conclusions. For one, I don't buy that talent doesn't become a bigger factor until game 73. Talent influences everything from day one. Secondly, it's largely based on the assumptions that the positive trends we've seen from the Leafs will continue, while the negative ones will improve. He also conveniently ignores score effects. Before the Stars' game, the Leafs were 14th in score adjusted CF. Still better than in the past, but decidedly middle of the pack. It wouldn't be that unusual for a talent poor roster in that position to have a really poor record - especially with inconsistency starting to creep back into their game, and their possession numbers starting to trend downwards over the last few games. It wouldn't shock me at all if, after game 20, the Leafs have dropped off significantly in most of the stat categories he highlights. Their Sv% and shooting percentage will improve, and that may lead to more success, but  the other stats potentially dropping off (and possibly at a fairly substantial rate), those improvements will largely be balanced out and negated.

From what I've seen, and from what I've heard players say they're being coached to do, the possession numbers are a bit artificially inflated; i.e. they're being told to just throw the puck on net and try to get the rebound for follow up chances and bounces. It's a tactic that requires very little finishing talent, but a lot of structured play to get the puck into that position.

 

[Bullfrog]

Secondly, it's largely based on the assumptions that the positive trends we've seen from the Leafs will continue, while the negative ones will improve. He also conveniently ignores score effects.

This here is where I throw a lot of it away.

Same here. Some things may improve, such as PP efficiency and team shot percentage, but the goaltending isn't going to improve much and other areas may get worse. An injury to Kadri or JvR or Rielly? I don't even want to imagine.

 

[bustaheims]

It's essentially the drum I've been banging for the past little bit on here and I had been mainly parroting it from a lot of the really good analytics minds on twitter who are convinced this team is a lot better than their record suggests right now.

I've spoken directly with a few of them and the universal conclusion has been that barring an epic sell-off in the second half, there is next to no chance that this is a bottom five team.

Thing is, a lot of people on here whose opinion I really respect, strongly disagree. The numbers make a compelling case though, so to me seeing how it plays out has quickly become the most interesting part of this season.

It's funny, because, if the Leafs had won a bunch of games and had a really positive record, I feel like a lot of those analytics guys would be screaming "sample size" at the top of their collective lungs. And that's the crux of the issue to me. I look at the roster, the way they've played, the advanced stats, etc, and I see a team that is better than their current record, yes, but not significantly. Some of the advanced stats may indicate they haven't played that poorly, but, as much as I appreciate those stats, they do only tell part of the story. I honestly don't see any way anyone who is taking everything into account could say there's no chance the Leafs are a bottom 5 team and honestly believe it.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Secondly, it's largely based on the assumptions that the positive trends we've seen from the Leafs will continue, while the negative ones will improve. He also conveniently ignores score effects.

This here is where I throw a lot of it away.

Same here. Some things may improve, such as PP efficiency and team shot percentage, but the goaltending isn't going to improve much and other areas may get worse. An injury to Kadri or JvR or Rielly? I don't even want to imagine.

I don't think you can say with a straight face that the possession will significantly regress and the goaltending will not improve. Everything is likely to even out somewhat.

Some stats on the goaltending.

[tweet]661387208084058116[/tweet]
[tweet]661387405585424386[/tweet]
[tweet]661424723302092801[/tweet]
[tweet]661557843045310464[/tweet]

Some stats on Kadri, just for some positivity.

[tweet]661404549807239168[/tweet]
[tweet]661404658418610176[/tweet]
[tweet]661404984764944385[/tweet]
[tweet]661405076431511553[/tweet]
[tweet]661405178239713280[/tweet]
[tweet]661405431110045696[/tweet]

I guarantee you won't hear anything about this on any Leafs broadcast this year.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Also, to anyone interested in reading a little bit more about HD Sv%, this is a good read.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/price-vs-dubnyk-nhl-gms-overvalue-goalies/

I thought the Goals Saved Against Replacement (GSAR) stuff was absolutely fascinating, reminded me of some baseball type stats.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I like Burtch, he's an incredibly intelligent individual and I'll always give his thoughts on hockey the time of day, but he's pretty much why anti-analytics people scream "watch the games!".

 

[Kin]

From what I've seen, and from what I've heard players say they're being coached to do, the possession numbers are a bit artificially inflated; i.e. they're being told to just throw the puck on net and try to get the rebound for follow up chances and bounces. It's a tactic that requires very little finishing talent, but a lot of structured play to get the puck into that position.

And I think that speaks to what I think might be being a bit overlooked with regards to this season's numbers. This is primarily a veteran team. Most of the new additions are players who have been in the league a while and very well have been specifically selected to be on the team because of how well they might fit into the system.

The idea that there won't be a massive transition as younger, inexperienced players are folded into the roster strikes me as a little hard to buy and as a result I really do think that this team post-sell off will genuinely nose-dive in a way reminiscent of a team that's, well, tanking.

 

[Bullfrog]

Secondly, it's largely based on the assumptions that the positive trends we've seen from the Leafs will continue, while the negative ones will improve. He also conveniently ignores score effects.

This here is where I throw a lot of it away.

Same here. Some things may improve, such as PP efficiency and team shot percentage, but the goaltending isn't going to improve much and other areas may get worse. An injury to Kadri or JvR or Rielly? I don't even want to imagine.

I don't think you can say with a straight face that the possession will significantly regress and the goaltending will not improve. Everything is likely to even out somewhat.

Some stats on the goaltending.

...

Some stats on Kadri, just for some positivity.

...

I guarantee you won't hear anything about this on any Leafs broadcast this year.

I love Reimer, but he's had one really great game which obviously affects his current standings. But what do you mean by "even out." Even out to what? It'll still most likely be below average goaltending. I can say what I did with a straight face quite easily. I did not say possession would significantly regress; didn't talk about it at all, in fact. I said "the goaltending isn't going to improve much." And it won't. We know what we have in Reimer and Bernier. I know that Bernier's better than what he's shown so far this season, but he's not a top tier goalie.

I'll be shocked if this team finishes outside of the bottom five.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I like Burtch, he's an incredibly intelligent individual and I'll always give his thoughts on hockey the time of day, but he's pretty much why anti-analytics people scream "watch the games!".

Won't even give him the time of day because he's incapable of politely discussing anything if you disagree.

 

[bustaheims]

Something else to keep in mind about the Leafs 5 on 5 Corsi - they're +35 against a group of teams that are a collective -92. Only 3 of their games have been against teams that currently have a positive 5 on 5 Corsi rating. So, it's not like the Leafs have really been holding their own against good possession teams. They've done well against poor possession teams.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Something else to keep in mind about the Leafs 5 on 5 Corsi - they're +35 against a group of teams that are a collective -92. Only 3 of their games have been against teams that currently have a positive 5 on 5 Corsi rating. So, it's not like the Leafs have really been holding their own against good possession teams. They've done well against poor possession teams.

I looked at this earlier, you might be right but I think it's 4 games and 3 teams: MTLx2, DAL, and BUF. And the games against Dallas and Buffalo were the two worst games of the season so far in terms of possession.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Something else to keep in mind about the Leafs 5 on 5 Corsi - they're +35 against a group of teams that are a collective -92. Only 3 of their games have been against teams that currently have a positive 5 on 5 Corsi rating. So, it's not like the Leafs have really been holding their own against good possession teams. They've done well against poor possession teams.

Although this early in the season, wouldn't part of the reason those teams are in the negative is because of the Leafs? 

 

[bustaheims]

I looked at this earlier, you might be right but I think it's 4 games and 3 teams: MTLx2, DAL, and BUF. And the games against Dallas and Buffalo were the two worst games of the season so far in terms of possession.

The stats I found didn't include last night's game, and it had MTL at -18. The positives were DAL, BUF and, surprisingly, CBJ - who are likely getting a big boost from score effects.

 

[bustaheims]

Although this early in the season, wouldn't part of the reason those teams are in the negative is because of the Leafs? 

Sure, but they'd still be -57 without the games against the Leafs.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The stats I found didn't include last night's game, and it had MTL at -18. The positives were DAL, BUF and, surprisingly, CBJ - who are likely getting a big boost from score effects.

WOI has the Habs at 50.2, Columbus at 49.8. But yeah, either way, they only 2 teams they've played in the top half of the league in possession dominated them.

 

[rdowdall]

I remember the days when you could look at a teams won-lost record and go "Yep, that's a bad hockey team".

 

[bustaheims]

I remember the days when you could look at a teams won-lost record and go "Yep, that's a bad hockey team".

You still can. The difference is really that advanced stats can now help you figure out how bad they really are and whether or not they're likely to remain as bad as their record indicates relative to the rest of the league.