Your TML Rebuild Plan

[mr grieves]

MR. GRIEVES REBUILD PLAN
Wherein the Leafs become the Chicago Blackhawks, Tampa Bay Lightning, or Islanders (with more playoff success). They could turn out to be the Panthers or Colorado, I suppose... but they've got better management than Dale Tallon's and better coaching than Patrick Roy's. So, optimistic fan fiction follows:

2016-2017:

• Season: Recently signed Stamkos (9.5x7, front-loaded) and recently acquired RH RFA D (JvR+ trade) joins Matthews and Nylander in development/learning year. Marner starts in junior, but after a month of 3ppg, is called up. He eased in, ends up playing 55-60 games of the season, the least of the young trio. Leafs get league average goaltending from tandem of Bernier and UFA. Season-long experiment clarifies what this team's top 4 D will look like. Stamkos and Nylander play first line minutes, Kadri leads the second line, Matthews and Marner enter the league as a sheltered kid line. Leafs surprise* and are on pace for a ~25 point improvement, but Bernier and other expiring UFAs are moved at the deadline. Leafs miss the playoffs and finish with 85-90 points.
• Offseason: First of 9 picks in the 2017 draft is their own first, in the 10-15 range. Otherwise, a quiet off season.

* It's surprise, anyway, to those who overlooked the underlying numbers Babcock got out of a crap roster in 2015-16.

2017-18:

• Season: Several Marlies who came up after last year's deadline (Kapanen, Johnson, Leipsic) make the jump to full-time NHLers. In the pool of Sparks, Bibeau, RFAs, UFAs, Leafs find a serviceable, cheap tandem. After a year of development, Matthews and Marner aren?t as carefully sheltered, so they ?disappoint,? relative to lofty expectations. Leafs make the playoffs. Early exit to powerhouse Florida Panthers.
• Offseason: Thanks to management's not getting excited by the surprise success of last season and evisioning playoffs, the Leafs still have more picks than there are rounds. Nylander's ELC expires. Keeping with recent philosophy, Nylander is signed through his RFA years; Lou handles negotiations (6 x 7m). Leafs core now up to 35-40% of cap.

2018-19:

• Season: Three years after drafting 1OA, and 4 after drafting a player who would've gone second in a good draft, 5 years after drafting a Swede who would've gone top-5 but for perceived attitude problems, the Leafs are contenders. Matthews establishes himself as first-line center. Leafs' early exit last season was a valuable learning experience. They go deep this season. Do they win? Flip a coin.
• Offseason: Still got all our picks, though they're deeper in the draft. Oh well. Marner and Matthews see their ELCs expire. Toews/Kane after the first Cup is the model, and both are signed to bridges to carry them through their RFA years at ~10% of the cap. Before retiring, Lou negotiates these contracts, creates a bit more space than would be expected. Still, top-heavy cap structure puts the core at about 50% of cap. Some valuable, fan-favorite contributors to the first run -- Brown, Hyman, Soshnikov types -- are shipped out for picks and prospects; those deep picks from the 2015 draft class who?ve panned out move onto the roster.

2019-2020 and 2020-21:

• Seasons: With core locked in, Leafs contend for the next 2 seasons. Do they win? Keep flipping coins. Given churn on the edges of the roster as prospects get worked into the line-up, some years are slightly better than others. Things mostly hang on the health and well-being of the core, of course.
• Offseasons: Gardiner re-signed with modest (25%) raise. New GM Kyle Dubas is ruthless in turning over the non-core roster. No bad contracts to merely good middle-6 players. When they have a good years: picks picks picks.

2021-22:

• Season: With Kadri, and Rielly's contracts expiring, Stamkos is moved out west with the 1 year left on his deal. Moving the second line's shooter in the lead-up to a playoff run is unconventional and surprises the league, but Matthews, Marner, Nylander are in their primes. GM Kyle Dubas is an asset management wizard. Another run, with Nylander as 2C.
• Off season: Kadri and Rielly are now UFAs. Kadri walks, is replaced internally. Rielly is re-signed. Core is 1 player smaller, eats about 40% of the cap.

2022-23:

• Season: One more run with most of the core. Matthews and Marner are on expiring contracts; upcoming off-season foretells cap doom.
• Off-season: Years of deep playoff runs have enriched Rogers and Bell beyond measure. Having used their financial might to hire top managerial talent, build world-class training facilities for minor league teams, and cater lunches and dinners at all levels of the organization, they buy half a dozen small market American teams. With so many votes at the NHL's BoG meetings, they repeal the salary cap.

2023-24 on:
Keep winning. Become most hated team in the league. Moreso.

 

[rdowdall]

If Marner is sent to the OHL, he can't be recalled unless it is on an emergency basis.

 

[bustaheims]

If Marner is sent to the OHL, he can't be recalled unless it is on an emergency basis.

Actually, since he's under contract, if he's sent to junior, he can't be recalled at all until his junior season is over.

 

[ZBBM]

Jeez, somebody should at least acknowledge grieves -- that's quite the piece of work there.  The end is pretty funny too.

 

[Redleaf]

Nice journey into the future grieves. I'd take that scenario in a heartbeat. And the hating? Better to be the most hated team and winning , than the most hated team and not. I mean at some point in the past 40+ years you would think the hating would have turned to a bit more empathy. So yeah, bring on the dynasty years and give all the Leaf haters a good reason

 

[Tigger]

Nice grieves, Marner has to stay up for the year I guess and you didn't fit in McDavid, but the best part is repealing the salary cap.

 

[mr grieves]

Jeez, somebody should at least acknowledge grieves -- that's quite the piece of work there.  The end is pretty funny too.

Thanks for acknowledging the work, Mr. McFate. I did learn how to make bulleted lists and took that MLHS article on Stamkos and played around cap hits. But I failed in researching the relevant CHL-NHL agreements... So, yeah. It's all pretty suspect.

 

[rdowdall]

I didn't really know where else to put this, but here is Craig Button's review on the top 2 players in his mind for next years draft:

1. Nolan Patrick: A foundation centre. Makes everybody around him better and excels in all areas of the game. Exceptionally smart with a thorough understanding of what is necessary at any given moment in any given situation. High skill with an ease to his play and while he may not 'catch' your eye with flash, he plays with the substance of fellow Manitoban Jonathan Toews.                                   

2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

 

[rdowdall]

2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

Yeah, I liked Babcock's quote during the season when asked about player comparisons.  "I only ever saw one player play like Nik Lidstrom, and that was Nik Lidstrom."

I think it's because people get bored with saying "This guy is good at hockey".

 

[herman]

2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

Button needs to temper his expectations.

 

[rdowdall]

2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

Button needs to temper his expectations.

So I shouldn't describe Laine as the speed and power of Mario Lemieux combined with skill and grace of Wayne Gretzky?

 

[herman]

2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

Button needs to temper his expectations.

So I shouldn't describe Laine as the speed and power of Mario Lemieux combined with skill and grace of Wayne Gretzky?

Don't forget the leadership qualities of Messier, and the intimidation factor of Chara.

 

[bustaheims]

2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

Yeah. I mean, when you take them for what they're really meant as - which is stylistic comparisons - they're tolerable. The problem is so many people take them to mean that player has an equivalent ceiling to the guys they're being compared to, and that . . . well, just ugh.

 

[Kin]

All that said, he sounds like a heck of a prospect and potentially just the sort of perfect addition to the team's prospect base.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Yeah. I mean, when you take them for what they're really meant as - which is stylistic comparisons - they're tolerable. The problem is so many people take them to mean that player has an equivalent ceiling to the guys they're being compared to, and that . . . well, just ugh.

It's a problem that I'm having with the Matthews-Kopitar comparisons too. None of this is a knock on Matthews of course, I just think people might be setting themselves up for disappointment if they're comparing him to Kopitar. That or people don't quite understand how dominant of a scoring/possession/two-way centre Anze is.

 

[cabber24]

I wish we drafted Noah Hanifin at the time and especially in hind sight. Would trade them today if we could Hanifin for Marner. We need d-man. I am afraid of following the EDM template.

 

[cabber24]

2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

Button needs to temper his expectations.

So I shouldn't describe Laine as the speed and power of Mario Lemieux combined with skill and grace of Wayne Gretzky?

The guys on the FAN590 were comparing him to Ovie this morning calling him the next Ovie.

 

[Kin]

Yeah. I mean, when you take them for what they're really meant as - which is stylistic comparisons - they're tolerable. The problem is so many people take them to mean that player has an equivalent ceiling to the guys they're being compared to, and that . . . well, just ugh.

It's a problem that I'm having with the Matthews-Kopitar comparisons too. None of this is a knock on Matthews of course, I just think people might be setting themselves up for disappointment if they're comparing him to Kopitar. That or people don't quite understand how dominant of a scoring/possession/two-way centre Anze is.

Maybe but I think that if Matthews doesn't become roughly the same level of player that people would be disappointed regardless of what comparisons get made.

 

[Kin]

I wish we drafted Noah Hanifin at the time and especially in hind sight. Would trade them today if we could Hanifin for Marner. We need d-man. I am afraid of following the EDM template.

The Leafs already have a young, talented defenseman they drafted in the top 5. That's something the Oilers never did and he's older than Marner/Matthews/Nylander so he's more likely to line up his prime with theirs.

The Oilers problem wasn't really that they didn't draft defensemen, it's that they drafted bad ones.