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herman said:Rookie shot rates so far
Courtesy of @ChartingHockey
I'm not sure who the unlabeled Leaf is, but I'm assuming Hyman.
Dull Good Bad Fun
In the Leafs case, their biggest problem this season has been their fourth line and bottom pairing. Specifically four players: Matt Martin, Ben Smith, Roman Polak and Matt Hunwick. [...] all of whom are below replacement level players. They provide negative overall value to the team, but because they fill some sort of traditional role they have a spot in the starting lineup. Now, if the Leafs had no one else to play I would understand, but that's not the case.
Peter Holland is sitting in the press box for eternity while Ben Smith wins some faceoffs. That shouldn't be happening. Even if you hate Holland, there's a number of guys on the first place farm team that are much better than Smith.
On defence, Frank Corrado has played all of one game this season while Martin Marincin was recently scratched so that the Polak-Hunwick shutdown duo could both play. Both of them haven't been great this year, but the two combined have been an unmitigated disaster.
And yet, these three seem to get a very long leash to iron out their deficiencies while the other three get a very short one and get benched at their first mistake. Maybe it has something to do with effort level, but it's no wonder those three look like they're trying so hard; they're always chasing the game. That's not the case for the press box guys.
herman said:I think it was around the 30-40 min mark where they talked about the 4th lines and how overlooked they were; playing 10ish min a night is still 17% of a game, which is about 14 games over the course of a season. There is a market inefficiency there that can be exploited, playing a more skilled 4th line that can overmatch the usual grind line.
Nik the Trik said:I really question the application of that in any practical sense. For starters, it seems to carry with it the assumption that 4th lines play other 4th lines when your opponent is going to try to get their best line against your 4th and vice-versa whenever possible. Another issue is that teams often include their penalty killers on their 4th lines so replacing them with skill can leave them with a deficiency there.
Regardless, there's a larger problem there which is that no matter what by definition your 4th line is going to be your least good line and any minutes you're giving it is largely to be when your other lines are tired. If you have a really effective 4th line they're eventually going to become your 3rd line and upwards.
Otherwise the "market inefficiency" is the amount of points that a team's 10-12th highest skilled forwards can score in 10 minutes or so(and often in unfavourable matchups) vs. the number of points a marginally less skilled group could score in the same time while sacrificing lineup flexibility. The idea that that number is going to be high enough to make a real difference in a team's fortunes seems like something without much argumentative weight.
onandonandonandon 15 hours ago
Well from 2015-2017, Bergeron (for a baseline) has 6.00 GA/60 on the PK in 200 minutes played. Holland has 4.93 GA/60 in 24 minutes, and Smith has 6.71 GA/60 in 71 minutes. Looking at SA/60, Bergeron has 41.38, Holland has 51.78, and Smith has 50.36. So whether you look at possession or actual goals scored, Holland is either slightly worse than Smith, or quite a bit better than Smith.
Holland has gotten minimal PK time so there's not a lot to go off of, but the time has gotten, he's been decent in.
As an aside, Gardiner has 40.45 SA/60 in 29 minutes, and 4.04 GA/60 in that time, so the fact that he's only gotten three minutes so far this season (during which time no goals were scored so it's not like he had two bad PKs and was dropped) is ridiculous. Meanwhile Hunwick with 11.97 GA/60 has 30 minutes on the PK this year, and Polak with 6.31 GA/60 has 38 minutes this year.
herman said:You touched on a couple of points like, if the 4th line is so good, it's not the 4th line anymore, and 4th line is just there to kill time to give your better lines a rest. If you can play a line that is close to, or equal in skill to a 3rd line, minutes can be balanced out better. The Leafs play a skating game, and balancing minutes is the way Babcock ensures fresher legs over the course of the season. Right now, we're about 18/17/15/10 ish? It could be 17/16/14/13, or 18/15/14/13. Just like how the line numbers don't really matter in the top 9, they shouldn't really matter that much in the bottom 6.
herman said:With regards to reducing team flexibility because we'd be shelving PK specialists, I've already rambled about this at length in the Leaf context. Our best PK forwards are not our 4th liners and 3rd pairing guys. It's Connor Brown and Zach Hyman; hard working players with more scoring touch than Ben Smith and Matt Martin. Having Holland in the lineup actually increases flexibility because he can center a different line, or play serviceable top-6 wing if necessary. Soshnikov, Hyman, Brown are the types of players that can fit in anywhere up and down the lineup and still generate chances. Guys like Martin and Smith are blocking us from bringing in better players for our top 9, like Leipsic or maybe Leivo, when we could play a 4th like Soshnikov - Holland - Hyman for 12-14 minutes easily.
Nik the Trik said:herman said:With regards to reducing team flexibility because we'd be shelving PK specialists, I've already rambled about this at length in the Leaf context. Our best PK forwards are not our 4th liners and 3rd pairing guys. It's Connor Brown and Zach Hyman; hard working players with more scoring touch than Ben Smith and Matt Martin. Having Holland in the lineup actually increases flexibility because he can center a different line, or play serviceable top-6 wing if necessary. Soshnikov, Hyman, Brown are the types of players that can fit in anywhere up and down the lineup and still generate chances. Guys like Martin and Smith are blocking us from bringing in better players for our top 9, like Leipsic or maybe Leivo, when we could play a 4th like Soshnikov - Holland - Hyman for 12-14 minutes easily.
Again that raises the question of whether or not you're talking about this year or in the future. If it's this year, again, the question then becomes how much we should want the team to push for every possible point.
If it's in the future though I think you've highlighted my point. If the near future sees a team that looks something like this:
Leipsic-Kadri-Nylander
JVR-Matthews-Marner
Soshnikov-Bozak-Kapanen
Hyman-Holland-Brown
Then the question isn't how much should that 4th line play vs. our current 4th line, it's how much should that 4th line play vs. the other lines on the team.
Likewise, in that situation the more general point I'm talking about rears its head again. Should we be making room for PKers like Brown or Hyman vs. the other potentially more skilled players the Leafs could on their 4th line? Obviously yes, the team needs a PK. So in the absence of really good top 6 forwards who are also top flight PKers(which I think you'd grant are a rare breed) a team should probably be prepared to sacrifice some skill on the 4th line for the flexibility of not prioritizing skill over all else.
Again, in the specific case of this year's team you're right that because of the uneven distribution of top end talent as the team tries to ease rookies into the lineup they have the opportunity to get a little more skill out of their 4th line than a team might normally have. The question then becomes if that's the difference between, say, 76 and 84 or 80 and 88 points if those are points we should really be on about Babcock wasting.
herman said:Some pull quotes from the reddit thread I just found on this article:
onandonandonandon 15 hours ago
Well from 2015-2017, Bergeron (for a baseline) has 6.00 GA/60 on the PK in 200 minutes played. Holland has 4.93 GA/60 in 24 minutes, and Smith has 6.71 GA/60 in 71 minutes. Looking at SA/60, Bergeron has 41.38, Holland has 51.78, and Smith has 50.36. So whether you look at possession or actual goals scored, Holland is either slightly worse than Smith, or quite a bit better than Smith.
Holland has gotten minimal PK time so there's not a lot to go off of, but the time has gotten, he's been decent in.
As an aside, Gardiner has 40.45 SA/60 in 29 minutes, and 4.04 GA/60 in that time, so the fact that he's only gotten three minutes so far this season (during which time no goals were scored so it's not like he had two bad PKs and was dropped) is ridiculous. Meanwhile Hunwick with 11.97 GA/60 has 30 minutes on the PK this year, and Polak with 6.31 GA/60 has 38 minutes this year.
This comment charts the deeper possession stats comparing Holland and Smith: https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/5epp2b/luszczyszyn_fourth_lines_third_pairs_and_the/daei37t/
Coco-puffs said:A lot to digest in your post Nik, but I generally agree with most of it. However, you won't see Brown on the 4th line again. Babcock came out and said as much today:
Coco-puffs said:Also, where is Komarov?
[/quote]Nik the Trik said:Coco-puffs said:A lot to digest in your post Nik, but I generally agree with most of it. However, you won't see Brown on the 4th line again. Babcock came out and said as much today:
Like I said, that hypothetical lineup was just something that may be the case a few years out if our younger players develop. Babcock likes Brown right now but I wouldn't write him in pen for the top 9 a few years out.
Player | TOI | CF60 | CA60 | CF% | GF60 | GA60 | GF% | FO% | |||||||||
Ben Smith | 316.7 | 54.7 | 62.8 | 46.6 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 42.5 | 52.2 | |||||||||
Connor Brown | 298.5 | 61.8 | 60.7 | 50.4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 50.1 | 48.1 | |||||||||
Matt Martin | 172.3 | 53.1 | 57.6 | 48.0 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 47.1 | 50.6 | |||||||||
Nikita Soshnikov | 240.2 | 59.8 | 60.8 | 49.6 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 37.0 | 48.3 | |||||||||
Peter Holland | 789.3 | 57.7 | 53.9 | 51.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 35.8 | 49.7 | |||||||||
Zach Hyman | 460.6 | 67.0 | 58.8 | 53.3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 44.7 | 48.1 |
Player | TOI | CF60 | CA60 | CF% | GF60 | GA60 | GF% | FO% | |||||||||
Ben Smith | 66.3 | 12.7 | 95.0 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 56.0 | |||||||||
Connor Brown | 46.9 | 11.5 | 119.1 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 6.4 | 28.6 | 37.0 | |||||||||
Matt Martin | 25.3 | 11.9 | 68.9 | 14.7 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 22.2 | |||||||||
Nikita Soshnikov | 2.4 | 24.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | NA | NA | |||||||||
Peter Holland | 30.9 | 7.8 | 71.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 44.0 | |||||||||
Zach Hyman | 80.4 | 14.9 | 93.3 | 13.8 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 47.6 |
Player | TOI | CF60 | CA60 | CF% | GF60 | GA60 | GF% | FO% | |||||||||
Ben Smith | 316.7 | 54.7 | 62.8 | 46.6 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 42.5 | 52.2 | |||||||||
Peter Holland | 789.3 | 57.7 | 53.9 | 51.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 35.8 | 49.7 |
Player | TOI | CF60 | CA60 | CF% | GF60 | GA60 | GF% | FO% | |||||||||
Ben Smith | 66.3 | 12.7 | 95.0 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 56.0 | |||||||||
Peter Holland | 30.9 | 7.8 | 71.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 44.0 |
herman said:Numbers from corsica.hockey, score/venue/zone adjusted, between 2015-2017.
Even Strength
Player TOI CF60 CA60 CF% GF60 GA60 GF% FO% Ben Smith 316.7 54.7 62.8 46.6 1.9 2.5 42.5 52.2 Connor Brown 298.5 61.8 60.7 50.4 3.1 3.1 50.1 48.1 Matt Martin 172.3 53.1 57.6 48.0 1.7 1.9 47.1 50.6 Nikita Soshnikov 240.2 59.8 60.8 49.6 1.7 2.9 37.0 48.3 Peter Holland 789.3 57.7 53.9 51.7 1.3 2.3 35.8 49.7 Zach Hyman 460.6 67.0 58.8 53.3 2.4 3.0 44.7 48.1
4 on 5
Player TOI CF60 CA60 CF% GF60 GA60 GF% FO% Ben Smith 66.3 12.7 95.0 11.8 0.0 6.3 0.0 56.0 Connor Brown 46.9 11.5 119.1 8.8 2.6 6.4 28.6 37.0 Matt Martin 25.3 11.9 68.9 14.7 0.0 4.8 0.0 22.2 Nikita Soshnikov 2.4 24.8 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA Peter Holland 30.9 7.8 71.8 9.8 0.0 3.9 0.0 44.0 Zach Hyman 80.4 14.9 93.3 13.8 0.0 5.2 0.0 47.6
Head to Head: Holland and Smith
Even Strength
Player TOI CF60 CA60 CF% GF60 GA60 GF% FO% Ben Smith 316.7 54.7 62.8 46.6 1.9 2.5 42.5 52.2 Peter Holland 789.3 57.7 53.9 51.7 1.3 2.3 35.8 49.7
4 on 5
Player TOI CF60 CA60 CF% GF60 GA60 GF% FO% Ben Smith 66.3 12.7 95.0 11.8 0.0 6.3 0.0 56.0 Peter Holland 30.9 7.8 71.8 9.8 0.0 3.9 0.0 44.0
Nik the Trik said:If it's the former I'd really question the point of squeezing every last minute of efficiency out of this group regardless. If it's the latter then I still think what you're doing there, mistakenly to my way of thinking, is valuing "freshness" over having your best players out there. We should be expecting our top two lines to play nearer to 20/18 eventually as those are ice times that hockey players have established pretty well they can play and still be effective throughout a season(Babcock's greatest success came with his best forwards playing 21 and 22 minutes a night).
So if you're going 20/18 with your top two lines then you have 22 minutes a night to divide between your bottom six. Assuming you still want a very good third line it's hard to imagine a team could ever be constructed as so you wouldn't have a clear preference as to what to favour with your third line and so you'd lean to splitting those 22 minutes more of the 14/8 variety than you would 11/11 or thereabouts. When it comes to resource allocation I think you'd have a tough time making the case that it's of primary importance to not have a significant drop-off between your 3rd and 4th lines vs. having better top end talent.
Nik the Trik said:Again that raises the question of whether or not you're talking about this year or in the future. If it's this year, again, the question then becomes how much we should want the team to push for every possible point.
If it's in the future though I think you've highlighted my point. If the near future sees a team that looks something like this:
Leipsic-Kadri-Nylander
JVR-Matthews-Marner
Soshnikov-Bozak-Kapanen
Hyman-Holland-Brown
Then the question isn't how much should that 4th line play vs. our current 4th line, it's how much should that 4th line play vs. the other lines on the team.
Likewise, in that situation the more general point I'm talking about rears its head again. Should we be making room for PKers like Brown or Hyman vs. the other potentially more skilled players the Leafs could on their 4th line? Obviously yes, the team needs a PK. So in the absence of really good top 6 forwards who are also top flight PKers(which I think you'd grant are a rare breed) a team should probably be prepared to sacrifice some skill on the 4th line for the flexibility of not prioritizing skill over all else.
Again, in the specific case of this year's team you're right that because of the uneven distribution of top end talent as the team tries to ease rookies into the lineup they have the opportunity to get a little more skill out of their 4th line than a team might normally have. The question then becomes if that's the difference between, say, 76 and 84 or 80 and 88 points if those are points we should really be on about Babcock wasting.
Coco-puffs said:That's great and all... Holland had been terrible on the PK in his limited time this year. Maybe he deserved a longer rope based on his performance last year, but Babcock also had practices and the preseason to observe if he wasn't doing the job he wanted that aren't contained in your stats. You can pull up all the stats you want from last year, Holland wasn't performing THIS YEAR on the PK. And your 4th line center should be one of your better penalty killers unless you have Patrice Bergeron in your lineup.
herman said:Coco-puffs said:That's great and all... Holland had been terrible on the PK in his limited time this year. Maybe he deserved a longer rope based on his performance last year, but Babcock also had practices and the preseason to observe if he wasn't doing the job he wanted that aren't contained in your stats. You can pull up all the stats you want from last year, Holland wasn't performing THIS YEAR on the PK. And your 4th line center should be one of your better penalty killers unless you have Patrice Bergeron in your lineup.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm sensing some aggression/frustration here? Sorry if I put you off in anyway; I was just trying to lay out the numbers with a bit more sample size. I know we both want what's best for the team and we simply have differing views.
I'm of the mind that Holland's stats are a bit tanked by only being on the ice in the early goings of this season when the defense and goaltending was in the dumps. I don't subscribe to the 4th line center having to be the best PKer. Best PKer should be whoever can play the PK game the best (dogged retrieval, speed). 4th C should be whoever can help truck the puck into the offensive zone with regularity, with the least scoring upside of the four Cs.
Coco-puffs said:Sorry for the impression that I was frustrated with you or being aggressive. Not my intention at all nor how I'm feeling about you or anyone on the board. I just have a difference of opinion from you and believe it or not its not a "I don't like fancystats" view. I just think 5-on-5 Corsi and Fenwick are somewhat overrated. I think other metrics need to be developed that give a better picture of a players impact.
herman said:This is a very good point re: deployment of minutes that I had not considered. There's a part of me that thinks having those hungry 10-min players on the fourth line who will go through walls just to get more minutes, and who can still generate good chances (Sosh, Hyman) gives the coach a good safety net if any of the top-9 falters on a game by game basis.