2016-17 Centennial Leafs General Team Discussion
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herman
Well-known member
Words that I tried to put together during the off season are starting to appear more frequently in the Leafs blogosphere with better coherence.
http://theleafsnation.com/2016/11/24/fourth-lines-third-pairs-and-the-extra-2
Dreger (ha) has mentioned on the air that the Leafs are shopping Holland and looking for a shutdown defenseman. *weeps*
I recently got into listening to podcasts too (like last week, because I'm slow), and this one jumped out at me: https://soundcloud.com/leafs-geeks/episode-26-declaring-war-with-garret-hohl
I think it was around the 30-40 min mark where they talked about the 4th lines and how overlooked they were; playing 10ish min a night is still 17% of a game, which is about 14 games over the course of a season. There is a market inefficiency there that can be exploited, playing a more skilled 4th line that can overmatch the usual grind line.
Another note from that podcast is on 4th line playstyle. Mixing in a sole skilled forward one a line of can't-stickhandlers is a waste. Soshnikov is being wasted on the 4th line. The Martin signing semi-locks us into him on the LW, and he could have been replaced with the far cheaper Rich Clune, or far more skilled Any Marlie.
Soshnikov - Holland - Griffith >>> Martin - Smith - Soshnikov
http://theleafsnation.com/2016/11/24/fourth-lines-third-pairs-and-the-extra-2
Dreger (ha) has mentioned on the air that the Leafs are shopping Holland and looking for a shutdown defenseman. *weeps*
I recently got into listening to podcasts too (like last week, because I'm slow), and this one jumped out at me: https://soundcloud.com/leafs-geeks/episode-26-declaring-war-with-garret-hohl
I think it was around the 30-40 min mark where they talked about the 4th lines and how overlooked they were; playing 10ish min a night is still 17% of a game, which is about 14 games over the course of a season. There is a market inefficiency there that can be exploited, playing a more skilled 4th line that can overmatch the usual grind line.
Another note from that podcast is on 4th line playstyle. Mixing in a sole skilled forward one a line of can't-stickhandlers is a waste. Soshnikov is being wasted on the 4th line. The Martin signing semi-locks us into him on the LW, and he could have been replaced with the far cheaper Rich Clune, or far more skilled Any Marlie.
Soshnikov - Holland - Griffith >>> Martin - Smith - Soshnikov
Kin
New member
herman said:
I really question the application of that in any practical sense. For starters, it seems to carry with it the assumption that 4th lines play other 4th lines when your opponent is going to try to get their best line against your 4th and vice-versa whenever possible. Another issue is that teams often include their penalty killers on their 4th lines so replacing them with skill can leave them with a deficiency there.
Regardless, there's a larger problem there which is that no matter what by definition your 4th line is going to be your least good line and any minutes you're giving it is largely to be when your other lines are tired. If you have a really effective 4th line they're eventually going to become your 3rd line and upwards.
Otherwise the "market inefficiency" is the amount of points that a team's 10-12th highest skilled forwards can score in 10 minutes or so(and often in unfavourable matchups) vs. the number of points a marginally less skilled group could score in the same time while sacrificing lineup flexibility. The idea that that number is going to be high enough to make a real difference in a team's fortunes seems like something without much argumentative weight.
herman
Well-known member
Thanks for taking the time to help me hone my thoughts.
These are really good points, especially in light of the way 4th lines are usually played. You're absolutely right in that other teams will be throwing their top scorers out to take advantage of the 4th line.
What I'm advocating for (not that I'm speaking for the other similar advocates at PPP, TLN, MLHS, LGP) is rolling out a higher skilled '4th line' and playing systematically differently to take advantage of the talent bump. So while that's not exactly what I said above, it's just a logical extension of having more skill in the lineup.
You touched on a couple of points like, if the 4th line is so good, it's not the 4th line anymore, and 4th line is just there to kill time to give your better lines a rest. If you can play a line that is close to, or equal in skill to a 3rd line, minutes can be balanced out better. The Leafs play a skating game, and balancing minutes is the way Babcock ensures fresher legs over the course of the season. Right now, we're about 18/17/15/10 ish? It could be 17/16/14/13, or 18/15/14/13. Just like how the line numbers don't really matter in the top 9, they shouldn't really matter that much in the bottom 6.
With regards to reducing team flexibility because we'd be shelving PK specialists, I've already rambled about this at length in the Leaf context. Our best PK forwards are not our 4th liners and 3rd pairing guys. It's Connor Brown and Zach Hyman; hard working players with more scoring touch than Ben Smith and Matt Martin. Having Holland in the lineup actually increases flexibility because he can center a different line, or play serviceable top-6 wing if necessary. Soshnikov, Hyman, Brown are the types of players that can fit in anywhere up and down the lineup and still generate chances. Guys like Martin and Smith are blocking us from bringing in better players for our top 9, like Leipsic or maybe Leivo, when we could play a 4th like Soshnikov - Holland - Hyman for 12-14 minutes easily.
As for the defense, Hunwik and Polak at the same time is just not good. Knowing that defensemen take 200-300 games to get their timing etc. down, this would have been the perfect year to roll out Marincin/Corrado to let them build up those minutes while the team expectations were light.
Nik the Trik said:
These are really good points, especially in light of the way 4th lines are usually played. You're absolutely right in that other teams will be throwing their top scorers out to take advantage of the 4th line.
What I'm advocating for (not that I'm speaking for the other similar advocates at PPP, TLN, MLHS, LGP) is rolling out a higher skilled '4th line' and playing systematically differently to take advantage of the talent bump. So while that's not exactly what I said above, it's just a logical extension of having more skill in the lineup.
You touched on a couple of points like, if the 4th line is so good, it's not the 4th line anymore, and 4th line is just there to kill time to give your better lines a rest. If you can play a line that is close to, or equal in skill to a 3rd line, minutes can be balanced out better. The Leafs play a skating game, and balancing minutes is the way Babcock ensures fresher legs over the course of the season. Right now, we're about 18/17/15/10 ish? It could be 17/16/14/13, or 18/15/14/13. Just like how the line numbers don't really matter in the top 9, they shouldn't really matter that much in the bottom 6.
With regards to reducing team flexibility because we'd be shelving PK specialists, I've already rambled about this at length in the Leaf context. Our best PK forwards are not our 4th liners and 3rd pairing guys. It's Connor Brown and Zach Hyman; hard working players with more scoring touch than Ben Smith and Matt Martin. Having Holland in the lineup actually increases flexibility because he can center a different line, or play serviceable top-6 wing if necessary. Soshnikov, Hyman, Brown are the types of players that can fit in anywhere up and down the lineup and still generate chances. Guys like Martin and Smith are blocking us from bringing in better players for our top 9, like Leipsic or maybe Leivo, when we could play a 4th like Soshnikov - Holland - Hyman for 12-14 minutes easily.
As for the defense, Hunwik and Polak at the same time is just not good. Knowing that defensemen take 200-300 games to get their timing etc. down, this would have been the perfect year to roll out Marincin/Corrado to let them build up those minutes while the team expectations were light.
herman
Well-known member
Some pull quotes from the reddit thread I just found on this article:
This comment charts the deeper possession stats comparing Holland and Smith: https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/5epp2b/luszczyszyn_fourth_lines_third_pairs_and_the/daei37t/
This comment charts the deeper possession stats comparing Holland and Smith: https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/5epp2b/luszczyszyn_fourth_lines_third_pairs_and_the/daei37t/
Gardiner not getting any PK time since Ron Wilson is a mystery that I'll quite frankly never understand.
Kin
New member
herman said:
Depending on whether we're just specifically referring to this year in particular or talking about team building in the general I would disagree with this for two different reasons.
If it's the former I'd really question the point of squeezing every last minute of efficiency out of this group regardless. If it's the latter then I still think what you're doing there, mistakenly to my way of thinking, is valuing "freshness" over having your best players out there. We should be expecting our top two lines to play nearer to 20/18 eventually as those are ice times that hockey players have established pretty well they can play and still be effective throughout a season(Babcock's greatest success came with his best forwards playing 21 and 22 minutes a night).
So if you're going 20/18 with your top two lines then you have 22 minutes a night to divide between your bottom six. Assuming you still want a very good third line it's hard to imagine a team could ever be constructed as so you wouldn't have a clear preference as to what to favour with your third line and so you'd lean to splitting those 22 minutes more of the 14/8 variety than you would 11/11 or thereabouts. When it comes to resource allocation I think you'd have a tough time making the case that it's of primary importance to not have a significant drop-off between your 3rd and 4th lines vs. having better top end talent.
herman said:
Again that raises the question of whether or not you're talking about this year or in the future. If it's this year, again, the question then becomes how much we should want the team to push for every possible point.
If it's in the future though I think you've highlighted my point. If the near future sees a team that looks something like this:
Leipsic-Kadri-Nylander
JVR-Matthews-Marner
Soshnikov-Bozak-Kapanen
Hyman-Holland-Brown
Then the question isn't how much should that 4th line play vs. our current 4th line, it's how much should that 4th line play vs. the other lines on the team.
Likewise, in that situation the more general point I'm talking about rears its head again. Should we be making room for PKers like Brown or Hyman vs. the other potentially more skilled players the Leafs could on their 4th line? Obviously yes, the team needs a PK. So in the absence of really good top 6 forwards who are also top flight PKers(which I think you'd grant are a rare breed) a team should probably be prepared to sacrifice some skill on the 4th line for the flexibility of not prioritizing skill over all else.
Again, in the specific case of this year's team you're right that because of the uneven distribution of top end talent as the team tries to ease rookies into the lineup they have the opportunity to get a little more skill out of their 4th line than a team might normally have. The question then becomes if that's the difference between, say, 76 and 84 or 80 and 88 points if those are points we should really be on about Babcock wasting.
Coco-puffs
New member
Nik the Trik said:
A lot to digest in your post Nik, but I generally agree with most of it. However, you won't see Brown on the 4th line again. Babcock came out and said as much today:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Babcock: "We like Brown to play against the best players." Praises his competitiveness.</p>— James Mirtle (@mirtle) <a href="https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/802201843275354112">25 November 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Mirtle:
Babcock: "We like Brown to play against the best players." Praises his competitiveness.
Also, where is Komarov?
Coco-puffs
New member
herman said:
I bet if Holland had performed as well as he did last year on the Penalty Kill Ben Smith would not have been plucked from waivers. Holland's stats this year (yes, I know small sample size, but clearly Babcock was not happy with him and the numbers show why):
All stats short-handed:
Holland
GA/60 11.01
CA/60 143.12
Smith
GA/60 6.71
CA/60 112.14
Btw, since you like to harp on Martin so much:
Martin
GA/60 5.34
CA/60 80.06 (best of the Leafs forwards, not including Bozak's 1 min 26 seconds of SH icetime)
BTW Hunwick looks terrible: numbers are Holland-esqe on the PK. Me thinks Babcock gave him an A and feels like he can't take him out of the lineup. Maybe they are just hoping to showcase him for a trade, but he's not worth much at this point IMO.
If you want to play Polak ahead of Corrado, sure, go ahead Mike. But Hunwick ahead of Marincin is the one that bothers me. Marincin has played 41 mins short handed so far this year.... ZERO goals against. His GF% shorthanded right now is 100%!!!
Kin
New member
Coco-puffs said:
Like I said, that hypothetical lineup was just something that may be the case a few years out if our younger players develop. Babcock likes Brown right now but I wouldn't write him in pen for the top 9 a few years out.
Coco-puffs said:
I didn't include Komarov for a few reasons. One, his contract is up in a couple of years and he's a questionable re-sign. Two, I wanted to show a sort of all-skill lineup and the problems with it. 2016 NHL all-star or not, Komarov isn't super skilled.
Third, and this is maybe my least formed thought on the subject, I think there's another issue with an all-skill lineup which relates to the bugaboo of intangibles. Keeping in mind that forwards aren't just top 6 or bottom 6 or top 9 or 4th line there's also the issue of PP time. I wonder if maybe a team full of players who are of a fairly similar make-up would by averages then be more likely to have conflicts arise over the various decisions that would be made about who gets more ice time than who or who is getting PP time or not.
Say what you want about Martin or Smith, I take it they realize that if they pop a couple of goals one night and Nylander is on a cold streak they know they're not getting bumped up to the first line. But if your 4th line is made of young skilled forwards than I think you might raise the risk of finding guys who aren't overly thrilled with being relegated to those 10-12 minute nights.
Coco-puffs
New member
[/quote]Nik the Trik said:
I think the only way he isn't a top 9 forward on this team a few years out is if he's injured long term or gets traded. But, we can't predict the future so that just a difference of opinion we have on him at this stage.
However, If I'm predicting the future, our top nine in two years is:
x - Matthews - Marner
x - Kadri - Brown (shutdown line)
x - Nylander - Kapanen (sheltered skill line- ie, the Bozak line today)
where x is probably a mixture of Hyman plus whoever works out from Leipsic, Rychel, Johnsson, and longer shots in Korshkov or Grundstrom. Maybe JvR sticks around if none of those prospects show enough over the next year and a half.
On Soshnikov, because I know lots of people would like to see him move up the lineup: I think our fourth line in 2 years is Martin - Gauthier - Sosh. I like his energy and he has skill, but I still think he's an energy player who's role is on the 4th line and moves up when there is an injury.
herman
Well-known member
Numbers from corsica.hockey, score/venue/zone adjusted, between 2015-2017.
Even Strength
4 on 5
Head to Head: Holland and Smith
Even Strength
4 on 5
Even Strength
| Player | TOI | CF60 | CA60 | CF% | GF60 | GA60 | GF% | FO% | |||||||||
| Ben Smith | 316.7 | 54.7 | 62.8 | 46.6 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 42.5 | 52.2 | |||||||||
| Connor Brown | 298.5 | 61.8 | 60.7 | 50.4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 50.1 | 48.1 | |||||||||
| Matt Martin | 172.3 | 53.1 | 57.6 | 48.0 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 47.1 | 50.6 | |||||||||
| Nikita Soshnikov | 240.2 | 59.8 | 60.8 | 49.6 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 37.0 | 48.3 | |||||||||
| Peter Holland | 789.3 | 57.7 | 53.9 | 51.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 35.8 | 49.7 | |||||||||
| Zach Hyman | 460.6 | 67.0 | 58.8 | 53.3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 44.7 | 48.1 |
4 on 5
| Player | TOI | CF60 | CA60 | CF% | GF60 | GA60 | GF% | FO% | |||||||||
| Ben Smith | 66.3 | 12.7 | 95.0 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 56.0 | |||||||||
| Connor Brown | 46.9 | 11.5 | 119.1 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 6.4 | 28.6 | 37.0 | |||||||||
| Matt Martin | 25.3 | 11.9 | 68.9 | 14.7 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 22.2 | |||||||||
| Nikita Soshnikov | 2.4 | 24.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | NA | NA | |||||||||
| Peter Holland | 30.9 | 7.8 | 71.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 44.0 | |||||||||
| Zach Hyman | 80.4 | 14.9 | 93.3 | 13.8 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 47.6 |
Head to Head: Holland and Smith
Even Strength
| Player | TOI | CF60 | CA60 | CF% | GF60 | GA60 | GF% | FO% | |||||||||
| Ben Smith | 316.7 | 54.7 | 62.8 | 46.6 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 42.5 | 52.2 | |||||||||
| Peter Holland | 789.3 | 57.7 | 53.9 | 51.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 35.8 | 49.7 |
4 on 5
| Player | TOI | CF60 | CA60 | CF% | GF60 | GA60 | GF% | FO% | |||||||||
| Ben Smith | 66.3 | 12.7 | 95.0 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 56.0 | |||||||||
| Peter Holland | 30.9 | 7.8 | 71.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 44.0 |
Coco-puffs
New member
herman said:
That's great and all... Holland had been terrible on the PK in his limited time this year. Maybe he deserved a longer rope based on his performance last year, but Babcock also had practices and the preseason to observe if he wasn't doing the job he wanted that aren't contained in your stats. You can pull up all the stats you want from last year, Holland wasn't performing THIS YEAR on the PK. And your 4th line center should be one of your better penalty killers unless you have Patrice Bergeron in your lineup.
herman
Well-known member
Nik the Trik said:
This is a very good point re: deployment of minutes that I had not considered. There's a part of me that thinks having those hungry 10-min players on the fourth line who will go through walls just to get more minutes, and who can still generate good chances (Sosh, Hyman) gives the coach a good safety net if any of the top-9 falters on a game by game basis.
Nik the Trik said:
Again, these are things I need to consider. My outlook on this year is more along the lines of play the youth and take whatever comes. Running an older, less skilled 4th line ran counter to that. I don't think playing more skill on the 4th line will necessarily mean significantly more points this year, but getting into the practice of playing that way, and maximizing that margin when the stakes don't matter is part of the development of the team.
herman
Well-known member
Coco-puffs said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm sensing some aggression/frustration here? Sorry if I put you off in anyway; I was just trying to lay out the numbers with a bit more sample size. I know we both want what's best for the team and we simply have differing views.
I'm of the mind that Holland's stats are a bit tanked by only being on the ice in the early goings of this season when the defense and goaltending was in the dumps. I don't subscribe to the 4th line center having to be the best PKer. Best PKer should be whoever can play the PK game the best (dogged retrieval, speed). 4th C should be whoever can help truck the puck into the offensive zone with regularity, with the least scoring upside of the four Cs.
Coco-puffs
New member
herman said:
Sorry for the impression that I was frustrated with you or being aggressive. Not my intention at all nor how I'm feeling about you or anyone on the board. I just have a difference of opinion from you and believe it or not its not a "I don't like fancystats" view. I just think 5-on-5 Corsi and Fenwick are somewhat overrated. I think other metrics need to be developed that give a better picture of a players impact.
For instance: I'm not a fan of Hunwick and Polak on the ice together as much as you are, BUT, just looking at their Corsi undervalues the impact they actually have. Yes, they don't drive possession like Gardiner and Carrick do, but, when Gardiner and Carrick eventually lose the puck (and they don't have it 45% of the time according to Corsi) they still have a job to do in terms of containing the threat and eventually getting the puck back.
Some stats to throw at you (all 5-on-5 unadjusted from this season):
Gardiner CA/60 55.41 FA/60 42.81 SA/60 31.14 GA/60 2.78
Carrick CA/60 53.41 FA/60 40.15 SA/60 29.55 GA/60 3.16
Hunwick CA/60 61.18 FA/60 42.41 SA/60 29.55 GA/60 2.43
Polak CA/60 65.38 FA/60 48.76 SA/60 34.05 GA/60 2.45
Take a look at the last column. Why do Hunwick and Polak, despite being our shittiest "possession" defensemen, have GA/60 rates that are much better than the rest of our defenders? (Gardiner is 3rd, the rest are all above 3.0 and Marincin is sitting at an ugly 3.92)
In Hunwick's case he may allow 6 more shot attempts than Gardiner over 60 minutes, but less of them hit the net. Good positioning? Forcing shots from further out? Luck? Well, luck does have a bit to play into it as his PDO is 101.9 but Carrick and Gardiner also sit above 101.
In Polak's case, his PDO is below 100, so its not necessarily luck that makes his GA/60 much lower than the rest of the defensemen. I think he does a pretty good job of keeping shots from the outside and boxing out his man in front so the goalie can see shots.
Furthermore, Gardiner and Carrick get much more favorable offensive zone starts compared to the other pairings. Babcock leans much more on the other four defensemen for defensive zone draws and I'm sure that hurts their possession stats.
Anyways, that was a step away from our discussion of Holland vs Smith. If we had more forwards who could handle PK, especially ones who could win a draw on the right side, I'd much rather have Holland in the lineup over Ben Smith as well.
herman
Well-known member
Coco-puffs said:
Ah. My sensitivity settings were too high, and I thought I might have done you wrong. Glad to know that's not the case.
I didn't think you were 'fancystats' averse, btw, and I appreciate your different point of view.
The new stat that's gaining some traction is xGF, xGA, which tries to take more context into consideration. Per the podcast I linked earlier, it's still quite nascent and there are two contending versions being tracked at the moment (corsica and DTM About Heart).
Kin
New member
herman said:
I agree in the sense that, ideally, what you'd do when putting a lineup together would be to take your 12 most talented forwards(or 4 most talented centers + 8 wingers) and within that group there'd be enough versatility to put together whatever you might need whether it's a checking line or a couple of PK units or good faceoff guys or whatever.
Ultimately though NHL coaches will tend to work in sub-optimal situations and try to cobble together those things while sacrificing a little bit on the low end. I think the idea of going all out on skill and worrying about everything else later is an interesting one that could yield dividends but that's more an interesting theoretical than a definite area ripe for exploitation.