2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs Summer Edition

[herman]

I do think it isn't unreasonable to look at Tavares as maybe the worst contract the Leafs have.  He's a really good player BUT he's 11M on the cap and he arguable isn't a top 10 player at his position.  His contract certainly takes more of a bite with the cap freeze.

Ooh, this is fun:
Per NaturalStatTrick over the last two regular seasons only measuring listed centres, John Tavares led the league in all-situations individual xG/60 at 1.28; his goals/60 actually exceeded that at 1.57. Matthews was 5th in ixG/60 at 1.19 but 1st in the league at G/60 at 1.85(!!). Yeah, xG has some inherent biases but it's probably the closest measure of which individual player puts pucks in the net.

Toronto is the only team with two centres in the top 5 for both metrics (ixG/60, G/60).

I think I agree Tavares is not top 10 (more like 12-15), but when combined with Matthews in tandem, there's significant gravity that both players are drawing off each other. I don't think either player gets to this level if they were on separate teams. I don't think we're better off running Matthews/Kadri/Brassard or whoever down the middle. I think they let you get cheaper 3rd wingers per line for the duration of their contracts. Tavares was still basically a point per game playing some mix of injured, sleep-deprived, and in mourning.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I do think it isn't unreasonable to look at Tavares as maybe the worst contract the Leafs have.  He's a really good player BUT he's 11M on the cap and he arguable isn't a top 10 player at his position.  His contract certainly takes more of a bite with the cap freeze.

Ooh, this is fun:
Per NaturalStatTrick over the last two regular seasons only measuring listed centres, John Tavares led the league in all-situations individual xG/60 at 1.28; his goals/60 actually exceeded that at 1.57. Matthews was 5th in ixG/60 at 1.19 but 1st in the league at G/60 at 1.85(!!). Yeah, xG has some inherent biases but it's probably the closest measure of which individual player puts pucks in the net.

Toronto is the only team with two centres in the top 5 for both metrics (ixG/60, G/60).

I think I agree Tavares is not top 10 (more like 12-15), but when combined with Matthews in tandem, there's significant gravity that both players are drawing off each other. I don't think either player gets to this level if they were on separate teams. I don't think we're better off running Matthews/Kadri/Brassard or whoever down the middle. I think they let you get cheaper 3rd wingers per line for the duration of their contracts. Tavares was still basically a point per game playing some mix of injured, sleep-deprived, and in mourning.

Stats to back it up. I have no issue with JT and his contract. He was still close to a point a game in what some considered an off year.

 

[Zee]

A) Was at a price that, relative to league salaries, Tavares has never justified with his play

B) Set a salary structure for the team that probably hurt them in the 3 RFA negotiations

C) Bolstered a position where the Leafs were arguably at their strongest

All correct. The Leafs and the fans seemed to go fall head over heals in love with Tavares. Rightly so, as he is a great player. But the signing shouldn't have happened. Not at that cost. I'm not saying that the team is losing because of him. But it certainly threw a wrench into the rebuild.

I didn't like the signing at the time, was never big on Johnny T. and at the price, Whew.  I guess they felt they had to make the statement that "this is the new Leafs" especially after not enticing Stamkos enough.

Maybe I'm mis-remembering, but I don't recall anyone that wasn't big on the Johnny T signing at the time.  At least not on this board.  I seem to recall Gord Miller saying he thought it was a mistake, but other than that I thought it was universally praised at the time?

 

[L K]

I do think it isn't unreasonable to look at Tavares as maybe the worst contract the Leafs have.  He's a really good player BUT he's 11M on the cap and he arguable isn't a top 10 player at his position.  His contract certainly takes more of a bite with the cap freeze.

Ooh, this is fun:
Per NaturalStatTrick over the last two regular seasons only measuring listed centres, John Tavares led the league in all-situations individual xG/60 at 1.28; his goals/60 actually exceeded that at 1.57. Matthews was 5th in ixG/60 at 1.19 but 1st in the league at G/60 at 1.85(!!). Yeah, xG has some inherent biases but it's probably the closest measure of which individual player puts pucks in the net.

Toronto is the only team with two centres in the top 5 for both metrics (ixG/60, G/60).

I think I agree Tavares is not top 10 (more like 12-15), but when combined with Matthews in tandem, there's significant gravity that both players are drawing off each other. I don't think either player gets to this level if they were on separate teams. I don't think we're better off running Matthews/Kadri/Brassard or whoever down the middle. I think they let you get cheaper 3rd wingers per line for the duration of their contracts. Tavares was still basically a point per game playing some mix of injured, sleep-deprived, and in mourning.

Stats to back it up. I have no issue with JT and his contract. He was still close to a point a game in what some considered an off year.

While we can call this an off year for John, he's also been close to PPG in non-off years.  At 29 I'm not really expecting him to suddenly become a 100+ point player.  He's a 40 goal 80-90 point player.  He's responsible defensively. He does what is asked of him.  We just probably aren't going to see significant growth in his game.  I'd like to see him penalty kill this year...one to get a guy who doesn't go 40% on faceoffs and two to get better value out of an 11M contract to get him an extra 2 minutes or so of icetime to bump him up over 20 a game.

 

[herman]

While we can call this an off year for John, he's also been close to PPG in non-off years.  At 29 I'm not really expecting him to suddenly become a 100+ point player.  He's a 40 goal 80-90 point player.  He's responsible defensively. He does what is asked of him.  We just probably aren't going to see significant growth in his game.  I'd like to see him penalty kill this year...one to get a guy who doesn't go 40% on faceoffs and two to get better value out of an 11M contract to get him an extra 2 minutes or so of icetime to bump him up over 20 a game.

His previous seasons with the Islanders involved him having to do everything, so PPG but not much more, is kind of a team-effect; as is his PPG off-year getting to watch Nylander's 30G+ season first hand (rising tide). There's a long history of elevating his wingers, which costs on the cap but is something you need from your top-paid players. 11M at the time of signing was high -- all UFA signings from the top shelf tend to be by nature -- but there was projected to be a big tv deal coming down the pipeline.

Statistical metrics aside, I think there is team value in having a veteran tone-setter that isn't doing it from the bottom-six, especially with all the Leafs star/firepower generally concentrated in the 22-24 age group. Like, I loved Kessel and how fun he was to watch on the ice, but a physically gifted hockey savant is not really the best player-leader to eke out the potential of less gifted players in the lineup. The Malhotra pickup speaks volumes about what they've been trying to nurture in the Leafs dressing room (as did the Marleau signing previously). Tavares is the front office's appointed benchmark for the Big Three to match and supercede (they will), as is Muzzin for the defense group.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I do think it isn't unreasonable to look at Tavares as maybe the worst contract the Leafs have.  He's a really good player BUT he's 11M on the cap and he arguable isn't a top 10 player at his position.  His contract certainly takes more of a bite with the cap freeze.

Ooh, this is fun:
Per NaturalStatTrick over the last two regular seasons only measuring listed centres, John Tavares led the league in all-situations individual xG/60 at 1.28; his goals/60 actually exceeded that at 1.57. Matthews was 5th in ixG/60 at 1.19 but 1st in the league at G/60 at 1.85(!!). Yeah, xG has some inherent biases but it's probably the closest measure of which individual player puts pucks in the net.

Toronto is the only team with two centres in the top 5 for both metrics (ixG/60, G/60).

I think I agree Tavares is not top 10 (more like 12-15), but when combined with Matthews in tandem, there's significant gravity that both players are drawing off each other. I don't think either player gets to this level if they were on separate teams. I don't think we're better off running Matthews/Kadri/Brassard or whoever down the middle. I think they let you get cheaper 3rd wingers per line for the duration of their contracts. Tavares was still basically a point per game playing some mix of injured, sleep-deprived, and in mourning.

Stats to back it up. I have no issue with JT and his contract. He was still close to a point a game in what some considered an off year.

While we can call this an off year for John, he's also been close to PPG in non-off years.  At 29 I'm not really expecting him to suddenly become a 100+ point player.  He's a 40 goal 80-90 point player.  He's responsible defensively. He does what is asked of him.  We just probably aren't going to see significant growth in his game.  I'd like to see him penalty kill this year...one to get a guy who doesn't go 40% on faceoffs and two to get better value out of an 11M contract to get him an extra 2 minutes or so of icetime to bump him up over 20 a game.

Yup. I think both him and Matthews should give the PK a go. Both are very good in the dot also.

 

[dappleganger]

I do think it isn't unreasonable to look at Tavares as maybe the worst contract the Leafs have.  He's a really good player BUT he's 11M on the cap and he arguable isn't a top 10 player at his position.  His contract certainly takes more of a bite with the cap freeze.

Ooh, this is fun:
Per NaturalStatTrick over the last two regular seasons only measuring listed centres, John Tavares led the league in all-situations individual xG/60 at 1.28; his goals/60 actually exceeded that at 1.57. Matthews was 5th in ixG/60 at 1.19 but 1st in the league at G/60 at 1.85(!!). Yeah, xG has some inherent biases but it's probably the closest measure of which individual player puts pucks in the net.

Toronto is the only team with two centres in the top 5 for both metrics (ixG/60, G/60).

I think I agree Tavares is not top 10 (more like 12-15), but when combined with Matthews in tandem, there's significant gravity that both players are drawing off each other. I don't think either player gets to this level if they were on separate teams. I don't think we're better off running Matthews/Kadri/Brassard or whoever down the middle. I think they let you get cheaper 3rd wingers per line for the duration of their contracts. Tavares was still basically a point per game playing some mix of injured, sleep-deprived, and in mourning.

Stats to back it up. I have no issue with JT and his contract. He was still close to a point a game in what some considered an off year.

I was going to say, first year as a Leaf he led all Centers in goals. I'm not sure what more you want out of him.

 

[Zee]

So the draft is Oct 6-7 and UFA starts Oct 9th.  We're 14 days away before stuff really starts to happen.  I can imagine the NHL wants teams to not do anything while the final is ongoing so as not to distract from their show, can't wait until the cup is awarded and the fireworks begin.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So the draft is Oct 6-7 and UFA starts Oct 9th.  We're 14 days away before stuff really starts to happen.  I can imagine the NHL wants teams to not do anything while the final is ongoing so as not to distract from their show, can't wait until the cup is awarded and the fireworks begin.

First buyout window opens this Friday too.

 

[Zee]

So the draft is Oct 6-7 and UFA starts Oct 9th.  We're 14 days away before stuff really starts to happen.  I can imagine the NHL wants teams to not do anything while the final is ongoing so as not to distract from their show, can't wait until the cup is awarded and the fireworks begin.

First buyout window opens this Friday too.

Hold me. 

 

[herman]

Hmm... Lundqvist
https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1307787541689643008

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Probably the most efficient way you could fit that other guy into our cap system.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Probably the most efficient way you could fit that other guy into our cap system.

That other guy?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Probably the most efficient way you could fit that other guy into our cap system.

That other guy?

The one we've spent the last 4 days spitballing ideas about how we'd fit him into our cap.

 

[bustaheims]

Hmm... Lundqvist

I'd be interested in seeing similar charts, but just for the last 3 seasons or so . . . you know, a relevant time frame.

 

[herman]

Hmm... Lundqvist

I'd be interested in seeing similar charts, but just for the last 3 seasons or so . . . you know, a relevant time frame.

Ask Micah; I think it's still in the refining phase. But what a career!

 

[herman]

Probably the most efficient way you could fit that other guy into our cap system.

That other guy?

The one we've spent the last 4 days spitballing ideas about how we'd fit him into our cap.

Trade Andersen for picks and maybe depth forward on the cheap. Sign freshly bought out Lundqvist UFA to a two-year 2M to tandem with Campbell. If healthy, the King is guaranteed 40+ games with a defense that is slightly better than NYRs.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If healthy, the King is guaranteed 40+ games with a defense that is slightly better than NYRs.

Toronto's defence was much better than NYRs even just this past season without Pietro.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Probably the most efficient way you could fit that other guy into our cap system.

That other guy?

The one we've spent the last 4 days spitballing ideas about how we'd fit him into our cap.

Trade Andersen for picks and maybe depth forward on the cheap. Sign freshly bought out Lundqvist UFA to a two-year 2M to tandem with Campbell. If healthy, the King is guaranteed 40+ games with a defense that is slightly better than NYRs.

Um big fat no. The King is dead..lol. Who would take on Flower at 3.5 for 2 years?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Um big fat no. The King is dead..lol. Who would take on Flower at 3.5 for 2 years?

You'd consider Fleury but not Lundqvist? They had the same save percentage despite one playing on the worst defensive team in the league and one playing on one of the best.