2020-2021 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[Chris]

Strange year for Marner. Yeah he piled up points at a pretty good rate but he looked off a lot of the time. Fumbled a lot of pucks, giveaways, bad passes. I don't follow the advanced stats very much so I don't know what those show or how they compare to other seasons. But in simpler terms, visually he just didn't appear to be driving play as effectively as in previous years.

On the other hand, he is really good on the PK, is willing to sacrifice his body to block shots and plays goalie when necessary. Even uses his tiny body along the boards at times (more than Nylander I think).

 

[Highlander]

Marner definitely needs to add some muscle to the top of his frame, he was bounced around pretty good in that series. 

 

[herman]

I am mostly reacting to whoever is in Marner's camp pushing the story that he needed a Matthews contract to feel respected and then immediately felt like it was a heavy burden that affected his play.

I like Marner. I think we can work around his contract, mildly overpaid that it might be. Best caliber of player to overpay if there's going to be any. He'd look like a frickin' hero in this market if he quietly took 9.3M AAV over 7 yrs instead of using using media leverage and currying offersheets to crowbar in more millions. Sure, use what you can to get what you want, but at the end of the day, people are going to read into how you go about your business the way they want to, and Marner's camp does not look good.

He just sucked in the series because they took away what he was good at (passing to better shooters) and he had nothing else left to offer but turnovers; I'm bothered that his main takeaway from that is to shoot more in the future, rather than leaning into his other strengths and taking the puck to dangerous ice (lateral agility, slipperyness, puck handling).

I don't fully trust his points accrued since the PP runs through him and usually ends up with a secondary apple for passing into a set play executed usually by some combination of Tavares/Matthews/Nylander. They're going to have to figure out a better way to use Marner there other than trying to seam pass to stationary targets. Integrating timed, concerted movement into the attack is really all it needs.

The other thing that sort of rankles is that stupid internal comparison to the other RW that held out for a better team offer than 5M. I can easily see Nylander doing decently with any set of top-9 wingers (non-Big 4) on the second line (Johnsson-Nylander-Hyman). I can't see any configuration of Marner with non-Big 4 players, where he is the best player on his line, actually driving play.

 

[herman]

On the other hand, he is really good on the PK, is willing to sacrifice his body to block shots and plays goalie when necessary. Even uses his tiny body along the boards at times (more than Nylander I think).

Nylander is one of our most effective players along the boards (not in necessarily in the DZ, but definitely everywhere else). It isn't just with takeaways, but also where Marner struggled this year in gaining the zone and then keeping the puck long enough to make a play (he likes cutting to the middle--good!-- but plays the puck pretty far from his body and got stripped regularly--not good!), Nylander has always excelled at shaking off checks while maintaining the puck in possession.
https://twitter.com/rahef_issa/status/1283503926323675136

Making it look easy and getting results >> Looking like you're trying hard but not getting anything done

 

[Hobbes]

Marner definitely needs to add some muscle to the top of his frame, he was bounced around pretty good in that series.

I also wonder if he doesn't need to have some of his ice time cut back. He's doing his normal 5-on-5 shifts plus PP and PK so he was frequently well over 20 minutes TOI. That's a lot for anyone, and probably even harder for a smaller/lighter guy.

This might seem crazy but...maybe he needs to be on the PP2 unit getting the shorter (garbage) time. Put Matthews and Willy on either side (Willy's a much more dangerous shooting threat for them to worry about) and let JT and Hyman (or Johnson or Kappy or even Richardson or whoever)  do bumper and net-front. I suspect that wouldn't really hurt the success rate very much since right now everyone knows Marner isn't a scoring threat with the puck on his stick.

 

[Hobbes]

Making it look easy and getting results >> Looking like you're trying hard but not getting anything done

Even better is doing that consistently in every zone.

 

[herman]

Making it look easy and getting results >> Looking like you're trying hard but not getting anything done

Even better is doing that consistently in every zone.

Name one good defensive winger on the Leafs The Leafs don't use their wings to win DZ battles; their system lets the puck go deep into the corners or behind the net and they try to spring out to the swinging centre in the slot. High risk, high reward system (tough on Freddie when they whiff). Wingers push up to spread out the attackers as they switch to defense.

I also maintain that wingers blocking shots from the point cause more problems than it solves.

 

[Kin]

I like Marner. I think we can work around his contract, mildly overpaid that it might be. Best caliber of player to overpay if there's going to be any. He'd look like a frickin' hero in this market if he quietly took 9.3M AAV over 7 yrs instead of using using media leverage and currying offersheets to crowbar in more millions. Sure, use what you can to get what you want, but at the end of the day, people are going to read into how you go about your business the way they want to, and Marner's camp does not look good.

Honestly, that just reads like more tired "If a GM negotiates a low salary he's a genius, if a player negotiates a high salary he's a selfish jerk" horsecrap that pro management stooges have repeated since professional sports began. Dubas could have held firm. He didn't. If you don't like the deal, take it up with your boyking who signed it.

I don't fully trust his points accrued since the PP runs through him and usually ends up with a secondary apple for passing into a set play executed usually by some combination of Tavares/Matthews/Nylander.

Marner had 10 secondary assists on the PP last year. Matthews had 8. Tavares had 5. His secondary assist % is high but fairly in line with most good set-up guys.

 

[dappleganger]

Mitch Marner, more points than Brayden Point in 7 less games.

 

[Kin]

I suspect that wouldn't really hurt the success rate very much since right now everyone knows Marner isn't a scoring threat with the puck on his stick.

He scored 26 goals last year.

 

[bustaheims]

Marner definitely needs to add some muscle to the top of his frame, he was bounced around pretty good in that series.

He'd be much better off adding that muscle to the bottom half of his frame - it would help make him more stable/strong on his feet, and is less likely to have a negative impact on his skating. Adding muscle up top without adding more below will actually make it easier for opponents to bounce him around - he'd become more top heavy and, therefore, less stable.

 

[Frank E]

I like Marner. I think we can work around his contract, mildly overpaid that it might be. Best caliber of player to overpay if there's going to be any. He'd look like a frickin' hero in this market if he quietly took 9.3M AAV over 7 yrs instead of using using media leverage and currying offersheets to crowbar in more millions. Sure, use what you can to get what you want, but at the end of the day, people are going to read into how you go about your business the way they want to, and Marner's camp does not look good.

Honestly, that just reads like more tired "If a GM negotiates a low salary he's a genius, if a player negotiates a high salary he's a selfish jerk" horsecrap that pro management stooges have repeated since professional sports began. Dubas could have held firm. He didn't. If you don't like the deal, take it up with your boyking who signed it.

Well, they both signed it, right?

And herman can speak for himself, but I read what he's saying is that it's a little ridiculous to use all  of the leverage to get an inflated salary, and then a couple of months later suggest that this inflated salary is stressing him out.

 

[herman]

I like Marner. I think we can work around his contract, mildly overpaid that it might be. Best caliber of player to overpay if there's going to be any. He'd look like a frickin' hero in this market if he quietly took 9.3M AAV over 7 yrs instead of using using media leverage and currying offersheets to crowbar in more millions. Sure, use what you can to get what you want, but at the end of the day, people are going to read into how you go about your business the way they want to, and Marner's camp does not look good.

Honestly, that just reads like more tired "If a GM negotiates a low salary he's a genius, if a player negotiates a high salary he's a selfish jerk" horsecrap that pro management stooges have repeated since professional sports began. Dubas could have held firm. He didn't. If you don't like the deal, take it up with your boyking who signed it.

I don?t think anyone really wants to relitigate this thing, so I?ll largely let it lie as no one is going to change their minds based on anything we say. Frank outlined what I struggled to articulate.

I do think if Marner?s camp didn?t say anything at all leading up to this contract, the perception would be a) Dubas is an idiot b) wow the team must really believe in Marner. But that?s very much not what happened. Shanahan apparently had to get really involved to make sure no one sat through training camp.

https://twitter.com/Account4hockey/status/1152279992656699392

I think if Marner?s camp resolves to say absolutely nothing, Mitch?s work will speak for itself and the contract will be forgotten. He sucked and was injured and put up a 90+ pt pace. The Leafs need him to just play without this noise.

Y?know, like that other guy that is still being hounded by trade rumours even after lazily scoring 31+2 goals.

 

[Kin]

Well, they both signed it, right?

Marner, ultimately, can only ask for a certain salary. The decision to actually give it to him is the team's.

And herman can speak for himself, but I read what he's saying is that it's a little ridiculous to use all  of the leverage to get an inflated salary, and then a couple of months later suggest that this inflated salary is stressing him out.

I'm not going to speak for Marner but I'm going to assume that it's not the salary itself that Marner's feeling the weight of but the expectations that come along with it. In which case, no, it's not ridiculous for anyone, let alone a young person, to find themselves in a situation they maybe weren't prepared for despite thinking they could handle it easily going in. Especially when those stresses are the realities of the downside of the Toronto media environment for hockey players. It's not ideal for the team if Marner feels negatively impacted by those expectations but to act like you can't understand how it might happen says more about the people pretending to be that naive than it does Marner.

 

[Hobbes]

I suspect that wouldn't really hurt the success rate very much since right now everyone knows Marner isn't a scoring threat with the puck on his stick.

He scored 26 goals last year.

Not sure where that 26 comes from?

I'm talking about his PP half-wall threat. In 2019-2020 he scored a total of 6 PPG (I didn't go and look them up to see how many were actually shots from "his spot" vs banging home a rebound or something of that nature). He scored 10 other goals at even strength. He added 0 goals of any sort during the play-in round.

The Leafs as a whole scored 45 goals with the man advantage so Marner's 6 is disproportionately low compared to his usage. As a set-up guy he's great, of course, so I'm not suggesting that he doesn't have value. I was simply thinking of my "he's logging too many total minutes" premise and thinking of ways to reduce it. Obviously taking him off the PK would do that but I get the sense he (and the coaching staff) like him doing that. The other way of pulling his minutes back a little would be reducing his PP time and my point was that perhaps Nylander could handle Marner's role and present more of a scoring threat in doing so.

Name one good defensive winger on the Leafs The Leafs don't use their wings to win DZ battles; their system lets the puck go deep into the corners or behind the net and they try to spring out to the swinging centre in the slot. High risk, high reward system (tough on Freddie when they whiff). Wingers push up to spread out the attackers as they switch to defense.

I also maintain that wingers blocking shots from the point cause more problems than it solves.

The F3 is supposed to do that initially and sometimes that was (or should have been) Willy. I agree that generally the Leafs' system doesn't call for the winger to do a lot of board work in the D zone but there were a lot of stretches early in the season where he was guilty of fly-bys and half-hearted efforts. After Keefe benched him for a period and a half in December he seemed to get the message and was significantly better in the 2nd half of the season and once more during the play-in round. So yes, I guess that was a bit of an unfair shot at 2nd-half Willy.

I guess the statistical math says the rate at which blocking shots causes problems is less than the rate at which it prevents them. I don't really have an opinion on it other than we sure have lost a lot of man games due to injury from blocking shots over the last 5 years.

 

[Kin]

I don?t think anyone really wants to relitigate this thing,

If "this thing" is Marner's contract I'm not relitigating it as I'm not trying to convince you he signed for a number that would get the analytics guys to break out the heavy duty kneepads on their way to Dubas' next appearance at the Sloan conference. Nor is anyone arguing that Marner had the year we all wanted him to.

What I'm taking issue with is your new owner-friendly stance on player conduct when it comes to negotiations where Marner "held the team hostage" by negotiating in the media while carving out an exception for Nylander who, I guess, was negotiating the right way for sitting out for half a season.

 

[Kin]

Not sure where that 26 comes from?

That was the number of goals he scored in 2018-2019. I suppose I should be using "last year" to now refer to the 19-20 season but I figured it would have been clear if I kept using "this year" to refer to 19-20 and last year for 2018-2019.

Anyways, he scored 23 even strength goals a year ago which I figure makes him at least passable at scoring goals with the puck on his stick but as you've clarified that you mean his goal scoring ability on the PP specifically I agree he's not really being used in a role where he's going to score a lot of goals there. That said, being as it was a generally pretty effective power play I'm not sure I'd be laser focused on changing things there.

 

[Hobbes]

Not sure where that 26 comes from?

That was the number of goals he scored in 2018-2019. I suppose I should be using "last year" to now refer to the 19-20 season but I figured it would have been clear if I kept using "this year" to refer to 19-20 and last year for 2018-2019.

Anyways, he scored 23 even strength goals a year ago which I figure makes him at least passable at scoring goals with the puck on his stick but as you've clarified that you mean his goal scoring ability on the PP specifically I agree he's not really being used in a role where he's going to score a lot of goals there. That said, being as it was a generally pretty effective power play I'm not sure I'd be laser focused on changing things there.

Ah..I see.

For what it's worth his previous season's goals weren't scored from that half-wall spot or from any sort of shooting accuracy threat. Here's his 2018-19 goalscoring heat map which is pretty consistent with his career map. It's largely from point blank range where he's very deadly. I certainly don't view him as the same sort of shot/scoring threat from outside the dots in the way that Matthews and Nylander are.

The Leafs' PP fell off a lot in the '19-20 season (17th in the league in scoring chances under Keefe vs #1 the previous season where the to 4 were still doing split PP time) and was lackluster during the play-in round (2-for-13) so a bit of a shake-up there wouldn't hurt.

Maybe just being another year older and no contract negotiations happening pre-season will give Mitch a nice bounce-back year all by itself and no other changes are needed.

 

[Kin]

The Leafs' PP fell off a lot in the '19-20 season (17th in the league in scoring chances under Keefe vs #1 the previous season where the to 4 were still doing split PP time) and was lackluster during the play-in round (2-for-13) so a bit of a shake-up there wouldn't hurt.

I admit I'm not fully enmeshed in the advanced metrics of power play theory but just at a read it feels like scoring chances is not the ideal way to judge a PP's success.

 

[Bates]

Mitch Marner, more points than Brayden Point in 7 less games.

And it only cost the Leafs $4 million more.