Armchair GM 2018-2019

[herman]

Crazy idea:

Step 1.
Rent Taylor Hall at the deadline for some pretty good NHL-ready youngsters (Johnsson, Brown, 1st round pick) to help the Devils shepherd Hischier/Bratt/Butcher (I'd also LMAO if all it cost was Zaitsev one-for-one). Honestly not sure what it'd cost, but we've got cost controlled assets at the right age range for their budget team. We can handle the cap hit with all the space we've banked with Nylander out.

Step 2.
Hall - Matthews - Nylander

Step 3.
Stanley Cup

Step 4.
Trade Hall at the draft to recoup the spend to hire him as a mercenary in his prime. Maybe he wants to go home to Calgary to ride out his UFA platform season.

 

[jdh1]

Crazy idea:

Step 1.
Rent Taylor Hall at the deadline for some pretty good NHL-ready youngsters (Johnsson, Brown, 1st round pick) to help the Devils shepherd Hischier/Bratt/Butcher (I'd also LMAO if all it cost was Zaitsev one-for-one). Honestly not sure what it'd cost, but we've got cost controlled assets at the right age range for their budget team. We can handle the cap hit with all the space we've banked with Nylander out.

Step 2.
Hall - Matthews - Nylander

Step 3.
Stanley Cup

Step 4.
Trade Hall at the draft to recoup the spend to hire him as a mercenary in his prime. Maybe he wants to go home to Calgary to ride out his UFA platform season.

  More offence ?

 

[Bender]

Crazy idea:

Step 1.
Rent Taylor Hall at the deadline for some pretty good NHL-ready youngsters (Johnsson, Brown, 1st round pick) to help the Devils shepherd Hischier/Bratt/Butcher (I'd also LMAO if all it cost was Zaitsev one-for-one). Honestly not sure what it'd cost, but we've got cost controlled assets at the right age range for their budget team. We can handle the cap hit with all the space we've banked with Nylander out.

Step 2.
Hall - Matthews - Nylander

Step 3.
Stanley Cup

Step 4.
Trade Hall at the draft to recoup the spend to hire him as a mercenary in his prime. Maybe he wants to go home to Calgary to ride out his UFA platform season.

  More offence ?

Does it matter if you consistently outscore the other guy?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

More offence ?

Good idea, we should get Panarin as a rental too.

 

[herman]

He is now the only defenseman I am willing to trade for.

https://twitter.com/hockeyfights/status/1070535767208783872

 

[cabber24]

He is now the only defenseman I am willing to trade for.

https://twitter.com/hockeyfights/status/1070535767208783872

Realistically, his teammate Bouwmeester would be a massive upgrade on Hainsey.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Realistically, his teammate Bouwmeester would be a massive upgrade on Hainsey.

Not so sure that's true actually with the season Bouwmeester is having right now.

 

[princedpw]

This is a great armchair GM job of demonstrating how next year's team might look:

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/182459

I think that is just about as accurate a job as one could do except it's a little too close to the cap.  To give more space, trading Brown is the thing to do IMHO.  We can't afford 2.1 million on the 4th line as much as he is a useful utility piece/PKer.  Bring in a rookie or UFA making 750K and then you've got the ~1 million space you need for when injuries strike and you need to bring someone up.

It's impossible to predict exactly what Matthews and Marner will but the guesses seem realistic to me (11.5 and 8.5).  Likewise, there is a lot of uncertainty around Kapanen and Johnsson.  With Kapanen, I think Dubas can hold the line.  If Kapanen tries to pull a Nylander, if I were Dubas, I'd just let him sit for the year.  On the other hand, if ever there was a time to use an offer sheet, I think Kapanen might be the perfect guy to target.  If July 1 rolls around and all three of Matthews, Marner and Kapanen aren't under contract then the cost uncertainty of what it will take to get Matthews and Marner under wraps might cause the Leafs to have to let go of Kapanen if forced into it by a well-timed offer sheet.  I think the compensation:

$2,029,660 - $4,059,322 1 Second Round Pick
$4,059,323 - $6,088,980 1 First Round Pick, 1 Third Round Pick

would be well worth it (certainly the 2nd round pick and perhaps the 1st and 3rd for a playoff team).

[Aside:  I'm not worried about Matthews or Marner offer sheets because it just doesn't seem possible to build a team when paying a guy a max salary (which is more-or-less what it would take to pry a Matthews, say, away from the Leafs and even then I bet they match) and also giving up your next 4 first round picks.  I just don't see how that can work.  Arizona won't come out on top by paying Matthews 15 million a year and also losing for the next decade which is what would happen.  And it wouldn't be any fun for Matthews either I'd bet.]

I also like this lineup because you can see that if we could get rid of Marleau then it seems there might barely be enough room to retain Gardiner.  I wouldn't be surprised if Gardiner could get $7 million on the UFA market but perhaps he would settle for Marleau's $6 with the Leafs.  I might prefer the right-handed version of Gardiner, but I don't know how to get that ...

 

[herman]

I'm not afraid of offer sheets for this group of players because they like it here and they're treated fairly, if not very well, and it's a team on the cusp of picking up the Cup. That's the best defense against offer sheets.

Our entire 3rd pair/4th line could be ~6-7M (around 8% of next year's cap):
Marchment - Lindholm - Moore
Marincin - Holl

As suggested earlier, one-year bridges for Johnsson and Kapanen to get clear of Marleau's deal should do the trick, knowing that they'd get sheltered scoring usage with Kadri to build up a performance portfolio. We can let Gardiner walk if he needs more than 6M. We can move Zaitsev but we might have to take some money back.

 

[Bates]

A Matthews offer sheet is a real concern if he makes it to July. Even more concerning is if It's massive money for only 3 years. We would be hurt by both term and money to match.

 

[bustaheims]

A Matthews offer sheet is a real concern if he makes it to July. Even more concerning is if It's massive money for only 3 years. We would be hurt by both term and money to match.

It's only a concern if Matthews has any actual interest in leaving Toronto. If not, teams can offer him the max, and it won't matter.

 

[bustaheims]

Realistically, his teammate Bouwmeester would be a massive upgrade on Hainsey.

Not so sure that's true actually with the season Bouwmeester is having right now.

Yeah. None of the pending UFAs on the trade market are all that appealing right now.

 

[louisstamos]

Realistically, his teammate Bouwmeester would be a massive upgrade on Hainsey.

Not so sure that's true actually with the season Bouwmeester is having right now.

Yeah. None of the pending UFAs on the trade market are all that appealing right now.

I had a look at the 2020 UFAs because the 2019 ones were so unappealing, and the one that stuck out to me was Pietrangelo.  It depends on a lot of factors - does St.Louis decide to blow it up and rebuild?  Are they willing to trade him away with another year left on his deal?  Are they willing to eat some of his salary and/or take salary back?

If so, if the Leafs are decidedly "going for it" I would probably probably pay a king's ransom for 2 playoffs runs with Pietrangelo.

 

[Bates]

A Matthews offer sheet is a real concern if he makes it to July. Even more concerning is if It's massive money for only 3 years. We would be hurt by both term and money to match.

It's only a concern if Matthews has any actual interest in leaving Toronto. If not, teams can offer him the max, and it won't matter.

Of course but as of now there is little knowledge of it???

 

[bustaheims]

Of course but as of now there is little knowledge of it???

If he legitimately wanted out, we'd know. Also, considering how rarely offer sheets actually get signed, it's really not a concern at all.

 

[Bates]

Of course but as of now there is little knowledge of it???

If he legitimately wanted out, we'd know. Also, considering how rarely offer sheets actually get signed, it's really not a concern at all.

There are numerous levels between I love it here and I hate it here. I don't know Matthews but think It's entirely possible he might welcome a chance to get to the US and out of the Canadian fishbowl.  It's just as possible he loves every minute of being a Leaf. In a 3rd option a 3 year $16 million per year contract just might appeal to him as well. In the end I prefer we never see July with him available,

 

[Bender]

Of course but as of now there is little knowledge of it???

If he legitimately wanted out, we'd know. Also, considering how rarely offer sheets actually get signed, it's really not a concern at all.

There are numerous levels between I love it here and I hate it here. I don't know Matthews but think It's entirely possible he might welcome a chance to get to the US and out of the Canadian fishbowl.  It's just as possible he loves every minute of being a Leaf. In a 3rd option a 3 year $16 million per year contract just might appeal to him as well. In the end I prefer we never see July with him available,

Matthews isn't an idiot. He wants to win and the likelihood of anyone better than us signing him is low. He ain't signing with the Kings for example.

 

[Zee]

Of course but as of now there is little knowledge of it???

If he legitimately wanted out, we'd know. Also, considering how rarely offer sheets actually get signed, it's really not a concern at all.

There are numerous levels between I love it here and I hate it here. I don't know Matthews but think It's entirely possible he might welcome a chance to get to the US and out of the Canadian fishbowl.  It's just as possible he loves every minute of being a Leaf. In a 3rd option a 3 year $16 million per year contract just might appeal to him as well. In the end I prefer we never see July with him available,

Matthews isn't an idiot. He wants to win and the likelihood of anyone better than us signing him is low. He ain't signing with the Kings for example.

All of this makes sense to my brain, however my soul will rest more easily once Matthews and Marner are signed to long term deals.  I've been a Leafs fan for far too long to expect anything but bad things to happen.

 

[Kin]

Of course but as of now there is little knowledge of it???

If he legitimately wanted out, we'd know. Also, considering how rarely offer sheets actually get signed, it's really not a concern at all.

Exactly. Until there's any sort of indication that it's something that Matthews is interested in, describing something that's never happened as a serious concern is just fearmongering.

 

[bustaheims]

There are numerous levels between I love it here and I hate it here. I don't know Matthews but think It's entirely possible he might welcome a chance to get to the US and out of the Canadian fishbowl.  It's just as possible he loves every minute of being a Leaf. In a 3rd option a 3 year $16 million per year contract just might appeal to him as well. In the end I prefer we never see July with him available,

Matthews seems to enjoy being in the limelight - at least, in terms of hockey-related stuff. I don't see him enjoying playing in a city where hockey isn't a major focus. And, really, in terms of those cities, Toronto isn't really all that different from an off-ice perspective. In any city where hockey matters, Matthews will be in a fishbowl.

As for your third option, I don't see any real scenario where Matthews signs a short-term deal like that. He's getting at least 6 years, and he's not going $16M from anyone.