Ben Smith re-signed to a 1-year deal

[Deebo]

Depends what you mean by 'consequence'... Leipsic is at about a PPG in the AHL and Leivo is coming off 10 pts in 13 games in the NHL.

I don't think any of the players I listed will amount to any more than average 3rd liners.

At a bare minimum, those two should be good assets for the team and losing either to expansion is a waste.

If they plan to protect Martin, it better be because they traded one or both of Leipsic and Leivo for value.

I can't see them getting real value for expansion eligible marginal players.

Also, If they leave Martin unprotected, then would only be able to protect one of Leivo or Leipsic leaving the other for Vegas to take. Would Vegas take Martin ahead of the other?

 

[herman]

I wouldn't protect Griffith. As mentioned up thread, the stigma of triple waivings should be shield enough. He's not critical to keep as we have redundancy, but I sure would like to keep him. His numbers aren't really PP bolstered, but he'll produce in just about any top-half deployment.

I also wouldn't protect Martin, because his contract and age and lack of production are also shield enough. I can't see Vegas, laden with 3rd/4th liners that have been in the league long enough needing a dressing room dad, or a fighter.

Barring trades, I think we should protect:
JvR, Kadri, Bozak, Komarov, Brown, Leipsic, Rychel;
allowing us to fulfill the forward requirements with Martin, Fehr, and Smith
and leaving unprotected Leivo, Griffith, Lupul (and UFAs)

 

[Kin]

I wouldn't protect Griffith. As mentioned up thread, the stigma of triple waivings should be shield enough. He's not critical to keep as we have redundancy, but I sure would like to keep him. His numbers aren't really PP bolstered, but he'll produce in just about any top-half deployment.

I also wouldn't protect Martin, because his contract and age and lack of production are also shield enough. I can't see Vegas, laden with 3rd/4th liners that have been in the league long enough needing a dressing room dad, or a fighter.

Barring trades, I think we should protect:
JvR, Kadri, Bozak, Komarov, Brown, Leipsic, Rychel;
allowing us to fulfill the forward requirements with Martin, Fehr, and Smith
and leaving unprotected Leivo, Griffith, Lupul (and UFAs)

I'm more or less the same but I'd protect Martin and expose Rychel. When it comes down to it the time to be blase about Martin being on the team was before you signed him, not one year into a four year deal where he's established himself as a popular guy on a successful(relatively) team.

Rychel, I don't think, is a good enough player that he's the guy you potentially want to show your ruthless side over.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm more or less the same but I'd protect Martin and expose Rychel. When it comes down to it the time to be blase about Martin being on the team was before you signed him, not one year into a four year deal where he's established himself as a popular guy on a successful(relatively) team.

If the team did decide to part ways with Martin they could probably get something decent for him in a trade too. I won't lose any sleep whatsoever over losing Rychel or Griffith or Leivo in the expansion draft. Leispic a little bit, but like I said I really think he'll be protected. On the defence side I'm guessing Carrick gets the 3rd protection spot over Marincin. Despite his struggles this season, I still think Marty can be a solid 3rd pairing defenceman so I'm hoping Vegas gets enough D from other teams that they overlook him.

 

[herman]

If Martin is protected/not picked up in expansion/not traded as expected, the one area that I would be willing to overspend a bit these next two seasons is on a centre that makes Martin actually effective (e.g. Brian Boyle) and shut me up.

It'd make for a pricey 4th line overall (haha, Islanders) and is the very definition of throwing money after bad money, but we're theoretically saving (literally) millions on the 1st line, and hopefully the same on the 3rd line until Martin's contract is expiring.

 

[digdug]

I agree with Carlton and Busta
This signing of Smith guarantees that Martin will be protected.

I'm guessing the last forward protected is Leipsic, and the
last dman protected is Marinicin.  (He played more minutes
in the playoffs than Carrick did).

So Vegas can pick one of the following

Fehr, Rychel, Griffith, Leivo, Carrick or Sparks

 

[Kaberle15]

I agree with Carlton and Busta
This signing of Smith guarantees that Martin will be protected.

I'm guessing the last forward protected is Leipsic, and the
last dman protected is Marinicin.  (He played more minutes
in the playoffs than Carrick did).

So Vegas can pick one of the following

Fehr, Rychel, Griffith, Leivo, Carrick or Sparks

No way they will protect Marincin over Carrick. Carrick was a top 3 regular, Marincin was not. It is that simple.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

No way they will protect Marincin over Carrick. Carrick was a top 3 regular, Marincin was not. It is that simple.

I agree that Carrick is more likely to be protected, but that's because of his age/ceiling. But I do see the argument that Babcock would value Marincin more. Yes, Carrick was in the line-up a lot more but that's largely just because of handedness. When Marincin did play he averaged just as much even-strength ice-time as Carrick did plus he was actually 2nd on the team in PK ice-time per game. Babcock even went as far as to say Marincin might be the teams best penalty killer. I mean it's a little baffling as to why he sat so much when you hear him talk like that but Babcock's gonna Babcock sometimes.

Carrick meanwhile won't ever get a regular job at killing penalties probably. He's 4th on the defence depth chart for powerplay time, and the team only gives 2 defencemen powerplay time so he's not going to be playing there ever on a regular basis. If we lose Hunwick or Hunwick's role on the team is decreased next season someone is going to have to take his PK minutes and that could definitely make Marincin a more appealing option to protect.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I agree with Carlton and Busta
This signing of Smith guarantees that Martin will be protected.

I'm guessing the last forward protected is Leipsic, and the
last dman protected is Marinicin.  (He played more minutes
in the playoffs than Carrick did).

So Vegas can pick one of the following

Fehr, Rychel, Griffith, Leivo, Carrick or Sparks

No way they will protect Marincin over Carrick. Carrick was a top 3 regular, Marincin was not. It is that simple.

I'm not sure it is that simple. Marincin kills penalties (Carrick doesn't kill penalties or play on the PP), and is 6'4" compared to Carrick's 5'10". I realize that isn't everything, but those are traits - size, special teams - that Babcock seems to favor.

 

[Coco-puffs]

No way they will protect Marincin over Carrick. Carrick was a top 3 regular, Marincin was not. It is that simple.

I agree that Carrick is more likely to be protected, but that's because of his age/ceiling. But I do see the argument that Babcock would value Marincin more. Yes, Carrick was in the line-up a lot more but that's largely just because of handedness. When Marincin did play he averaged just as much even-strength ice-time as Carrick did plus he was actually 2nd on the team in PK ice-time per game. Babcock even went as far as to say Marincin might be the teams best penalty killer. I mean it's a little baffling as to why he sat so much when you hear him talk like that but Babcock's gonna Babcock sometimes.

Carrick meanwhile won't ever get a regular job at killing penalties probably. He's 4th on the defence depth chart for powerplay time, and the team only gives 2 defencemen powerplay time so he's not going to be playing there ever on a regular basis. If we lose Hunwick or Hunwick's role on the team is decreased next season someone is going to have to take his PK minutes and that could definitely make Marincin a more appealing option to protect.

BGBS - That's a mnemonic we need to use around here. 
BGBS #1.  Playing defensemen on their strong side as much as humanly possible meant that Marincin had to outplay Hunwick to get a spot in the lineup.  Carrick had to outplay just one out of a group that included Corrado, Marchenko, and Polak.  Carrick had an easier path to a spot, and developed some chemistry with Jake that helped him.

So I wouldn't look so much into who played in more games as to whom Babcock prefers.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Marincin protected over Carrick.

However, in terms of handed-ness depth for next year on NHL contracts we are currently at:

Gardiner - Rielly - Marincin - Dermott - Nielsen - Valiev
Zaitsev - Carrick - Marchenko - Holl

Based on that list, I'd much rather lose Marincin to Vegas than Carrick.  Especially with the list of UFA RHD being Shattenkirk, Franson, and a bunch of players I'd rather not talk about.  Management might see the same thing- a huge hole if they lose Carrick over Marincin.

 

[Frank E]

No way they will protect Marincin over Carrick. Carrick was a top 3 regular, Marincin was not. It is that simple.

I agree that Carrick is more likely to be protected, but that's because of his age/ceiling. But I do see the argument that Babcock would value Marincin more. Yes, Carrick was in the line-up a lot more but that's largely just because of handedness. When Marincin did play he averaged just as much even-strength ice-time as Carrick did plus he was actually 2nd on the team in PK ice-time per game. Babcock even went as far as to say Marincin might be the teams best penalty killer. I mean it's a little baffling as to why he sat so much when you hear him talk like that but Babcock's gonna Babcock sometimes.

Carrick meanwhile won't ever get a regular job at killing penalties probably. He's 4th on the defence depth chart for powerplay time, and the team only gives 2 defencemen powerplay time so he's not going to be playing there ever on a regular basis. If we lose Hunwick or Hunwick's role on the team is decreased next season someone is going to have to take his PK minutes and that could definitely make Marincin a more appealing option to protect.

BGBS - That's a mnemonic we need to use around here. 
BGBS #1.  Playing defensemen on their strong side as much as humanly possible meant that Marincin had to outplay Hunwick to get a spot in the lineup.  Carrick had to outplay just one out of a group that included Corrado, Marchenko, and Polak.  Carrick had an easier path to a spot, and developed some chemistry with Jake that helped him.

So I wouldn't look so much into who played in more games as to whom Babcock prefers.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Marincin protected over Carrick.

However, in terms of handed-ness depth for next year on NHL contracts we are currently at:

Gardiner - Rielly - Marincin - Dermott - Nielsen - Valiev
Zaitsev - Carrick - Marchenko - Holl

Based on that list, I'd much rather lose Marincin to Vegas than Carrick.  Especially with the list of UFA RHD being Shattenkirk, Franson, and a bunch of players I'd rather not talk about.  Management might see the same thing- a huge hole if they lose Carrick over Marincin.

I'm no big Carrick fan...he's OK...but I'd have to think that Marincin is more easily replaced on the UFA market than Carrick is.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm no big Carrick fan...he's OK...but I'd have to think that Marincin is more easily replaced on the UFA market than Carrick is.

I was hoping Carrick would have a breakout year this season, but I really don't think that happened. We sometimes talk about him as playing in the top-4 but he basically played the exact same minutes Hunwick and Polak did at even-strength and as already discussed didn't get any special teams time. So you can definitely make the case that he was actually the teams #6 defenceman this season. I do think he still has some room to grow but I'm not really counting on him to ever become a top-4 anymore.

As for who the easiest to replace would be, well there's already a defenceman out there familiar with the team who has practically begged the Leafs to sign him in the media a little bit ago.

 

[Frank E]

I'm no big Carrick fan...he's OK...but I'd have to think that Marincin is more easily replaced on the UFA market than Carrick is.

I was hoping Carrick would have a breakout year this season, but I really don't think that happened. We sometimes talk about him as playing in the top-4 but he basically played the exact same minutes Hunwick and Polak did at even-strength and as already discussed didn't get any special teams time. So you can definitely make the case that he was actually the teams #6 defenceman this season. I do think he still has some room to grow but I'm not really counting on him to ever become a top-4 anymore.

As for who the easiest to replace would be, well there's already a defenceman out there familiar with the team who has practically begged the Leafs to sign him in the media a little bit ago.

Just to add to this...Since they've now got $5m in long-term Rielly, $4.05 long-term'ish in Gardiner, and now $4.5 in long term Zaitsev, you have to think that if they're going to bring in a heavy #1 guy, it's going to be Carrick's ice time that's going backwards.  The bottom 2 will likely be the PK guys, and if Carrick isn't a PKer, than I have to think he's the one that's out once they find a top-pairing guy.  And I'm assuming that they're looking to add a top pairing guy.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

If Carrick can continue to improve I think he'd be a very good bottom pairing guy with top-four potential, he is still very green for an NHL dman, there is no reason to think he can't continue to get better.

Marincin doesn't have that kind of ceiling, in my opinion. He'll never be better than a bottom pairing penalty killer with a penchant for a brain fart.

 

[herman]

So I was mulling this last week: Boyle makes the forth line pretty palatable. But he is on the wrong side of 30 and sounds like he's looking for one last ride.

What does everyone think of re-upping Colin Greening as the 4th line option? I liked him best of the three sens salary dumps. At the very least, a two-way deal at a more reasonable price, as I hear he has been the Marlies' Gary Roberts.

 

[bustaheims]

So I was mulling this last week: Boyle makes the forth line pretty palatable. But he is on the wrong side of 30 and sounds like he's looking for one last ride.

What does everyone think of re-upping Colin Greening as the 4th line option? I liked him best of the three sens salary dumps. At the very least, a two-way deal at a more reasonable price, as I hear he has been the Marlies' Gary Roberts.

I'd be happy to keep Greening around as a depth/13th forward type. Sign him for the max bury-able contract (a little over $1M per for 17/18). I'd also be open to holding on to Boyle on a 2 or 3 year deal at $2.5M per or less.

 

[gunnar36]

I agree with Carlton and Busta
This signing of Smith guarantees that Martin will be protected.

I'm guessing the last forward protected is Leipsic, and the
last dman protected is Marinicin.  (He played more minutes
in the playoffs than Carrick did).

So Vegas can pick one of the following

Fehr, Rychel, Griffith, Leivo, Carrick or Sparks

No way they will protect Marincin over Carrick. Carrick was a top 3 regular, Marincin was not. It is that simple.

100% agree here.  Carriick had a great season as a 22 yr old, has a lot more upside and possesses a physical element to his game.  He seem to wear down a bit at the end of season, but who knows he may of been dealing with injuries or just not used to the grind of full season yet.