Highlander
Active member
LK that is not good enough Lou should be "Supreme Godhead of Hockey Ops" for eternityL K said:
Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
- Thread starter CarltonTheBear
- Start date
Frank E
Active member
herman said:
I'm not sure Dubas has the experience yet to deal with the very experienced agents dealing with 8 figure deals...the Leafs really haven't been through that process with the current crew.
If Dubas knows what's good for him, he might want to hang around Lou a little longer and grow into the job...I'm not sure that Colorado has the people that would mentor him nearly as well.
But I was young once too, and I thought I knew more than I did...so I don't blame him for accepting the flattering that is an interview request...assuming that he did want to talk to Colorado.
Frank E
Active member
L K said:
You're right...and my comment wasn't really Hunter > Dubas...it was more a comment about why Dubas might not be as ready for the big chair as some may want him to be.
But, again, you're right that Hunter really doesn't have that kind of experience either. I think I might want Lou around for another year or so after this contract.
Frank E
Active member
herman said:
I have to think there's a lot more to the job than answering trade scenario phone calls though...really, this is a billion dollar company with some pretty important steps to take over the next few years, given their performance this year. There's a lot of expectations here now in Toronto.
This really isn't something I'd be eager to put in the lap of a 30 year old without a ton of support.
I'm not sure how old you are herman, but it wasn't that long ago that I was 30 years old, and I'd make different decisions today than I did then.
EDIT: This ain't Arizona.
herman said:
I,m thinking that Hunter has about 20 years of more hockey experience than Dubas,played in the NHL ,I think with Montreal as well,maybe even under Bowman,s coaching.He's been in hockey a long time,seems to know talent.
However saying all that Dubas might be the man in the long run.
bustaheims
Active member
jdh1 said:
History has provided many examples that show that having played the game professionally does not provide any real advantage or insight when it comes to coaching or managing a team. There's been many more former players that were failures than successes.
herman
Well-known member
Frank E said:
Honestly, I agree with all of that in general for 30 year olds (I'm in that demographic, btw -- could you tell by the pop culture references?), but I've seen it work and I've seen older management appreciate the new viewpoints of a humble young'un's suggestions.
I'd also say Dubas is probably an exception. He is remarkably even keeled, open to all the information, he has operated both sides of the old school and new school and has a knack for unifying the two. That last point is where I put more eggs in the Dubas basket. I like that he draws inspiration constantly from other sports management (baseball, basketball, both several steps in stats and management ahead of hockey) and has a good network of connections in those leagues. I resonate with his philosophy of work, finding sustainable advantage, and developing with evidence-based research instead of just what every hockey team has ever done in the past.
I don't think Dubas would be unsupported. Pretty much everyone else on staff, under his purview and ancillary to hockey operations has been doing this for awhile and he's the kind of manager that welcomes feedback and support and always pushes the credit to the staff and players.
Hunter, much quieter, does a lot of this too. He also welcomes opposing views to reach the optimal solution. He has the conviction and wherewithal to stand up to Babcock's pressure on personnel. I don't think he'd be a bad option.
Peter D.
Moderator
herman said:
Admittedly, I don't have much use for advanced stats, which is a big part of what Dubas is known for, so that takes the lustre off of him for me. I also prefer Hunter's talent evaluation abilities. Dubas seems like a good complementary piece to do the grunt work in terms of working the phones and laying the ground work on trades and contracts. But when it comes to pulling the final trigger on a deal or having the final say on the draft floor, I'd rather Hunter be the one calling the shots.
bustaheims
Active member
Peter D. said:
For me, the talent evaluation ability is a big reason why I'd prefer to have Hunter remain head of scouting. That's where those talents will have the strongest long-term impact. Evaluating players that are already in the NHL is a much more straightforward task than evaluating whether or not teenagers will turn into quality NHLers.
Peter D. said:
What I find interesting when it comes to Tim Hunters talent evaluation is what happened in last years draft. It will be interesting to see how that class pans out. I'm just not sure how much say he had in drafting the over-agers, or if it was his idea to begin with.
bustaheims said:
Yeah, I was going to say this same thing too. I'm not saying that Hunter would be as bad of a GM, but JFJ was widely know for his great "talent evaluation abilities" too prior to becoming the Leafs GM.
Peter D.
Moderator
CarltonTheBear said:
These are fair points. And maybe Hunter just may in fact prefer to keep it as is.
But on the flipside, I don't see what gives Dubas the distinct advantage either, or he'd be any better than Hunter. I don't want to say I'm underwhelmed with him, but he hasn't really stood out. I also get the sense that it's Shanny, Lou, Hunter...then Dubas. Which is a main reason why I think he'd even consider leaving the Leafs.
One thing that I thought was kind of interesting throughout the season was that some of the criticism of the Leafs management team from last offseason never really seemed to get brought up again. Lets rewind about a year or so from now:
-The Leafs draft strategy seemed to target older and/or bigger players as opposed to 2015's which put a clear emphasis on skill and speed
-The Leafs dipped into free agency by signing players like Matt Martin and Roman Polak
-The Leafs dealt a 1st round draft pick for immediate help in the form of a starting goaltender
According to a segment of fans, these moves seemed to signal a shift in the managements philosophy. A shift away from the (let's call it) analytics approach that the group seemed to be using in the past couple of offseasons. This was also of course Lou's first full offseason with the club, so the shift was largely seen as being something he dictated. Of course, once the season started and things appeared to be going better than we expected (and by that I mean Matthews/Nylander/Marner were much better in their rookie seasons than most expected) that talk seemed to die down. But moves like picking up Smith and Boyle and not unloading any contracts at the deadline for picks all seemed to fall in line with this new 'Lou' philosophy.
Now with this talk about Dubas potentially leaving we can add another aspect of this shift. When Lou first came on board he publicly stated that Dubas was essentially the GM-in-waiting for the club. The whispers are that over time Lou became more impressed with Hunter than Dubas and Kyle started to fall out of favour. We can potentially draw parallels between how Lou viewed those two and that shift in the teams philosophy that I outlined above.
And that's kind of what worries me the most about all of this. All of this really makes it seem like we've gone from a team that was championing the analytical approach and a new, forward thinking way of building hockey teams to a more traditional philosophy. I fell in love with the vision that Shanahan brought forth in 2014 that largely included Dubas and his way of looking at the game. I'm not saying that a more traditional philosophy can't make this group a Stanley Cup winning team, and I'm not saying that Lou/Hunter are completely abandoning analytics. But I can't help but think the original 'Shanaplan' has been hijacked a little bit.
-The Leafs draft strategy seemed to target older and/or bigger players as opposed to 2015's which put a clear emphasis on skill and speed
-The Leafs dipped into free agency by signing players like Matt Martin and Roman Polak
-The Leafs dealt a 1st round draft pick for immediate help in the form of a starting goaltender
According to a segment of fans, these moves seemed to signal a shift in the managements philosophy. A shift away from the (let's call it) analytics approach that the group seemed to be using in the past couple of offseasons. This was also of course Lou's first full offseason with the club, so the shift was largely seen as being something he dictated. Of course, once the season started and things appeared to be going better than we expected (and by that I mean Matthews/Nylander/Marner were much better in their rookie seasons than most expected) that talk seemed to die down. But moves like picking up Smith and Boyle and not unloading any contracts at the deadline for picks all seemed to fall in line with this new 'Lou' philosophy.
Now with this talk about Dubas potentially leaving we can add another aspect of this shift. When Lou first came on board he publicly stated that Dubas was essentially the GM-in-waiting for the club. The whispers are that over time Lou became more impressed with Hunter than Dubas and Kyle started to fall out of favour. We can potentially draw parallels between how Lou viewed those two and that shift in the teams philosophy that I outlined above.
And that's kind of what worries me the most about all of this. All of this really makes it seem like we've gone from a team that was championing the analytical approach and a new, forward thinking way of building hockey teams to a more traditional philosophy. I fell in love with the vision that Shanahan brought forth in 2014 that largely included Dubas and his way of looking at the game. I'm not saying that a more traditional philosophy can't make this group a Stanley Cup winning team, and I'm not saying that Lou/Hunter are completely abandoning analytics. But I can't help but think the original 'Shanaplan' has been hijacked a little bit.
Kin
New member
CarltonTheBear said:
I would just like to point out that I mention the first one there all the time. Also, as soon as the season ended I started a whole thread about the third. Also, the stupid facial hair stuff.
I was never on board with the Lou hiring. It always smacked of overreacting to criticisms of a lack of experience and the "Don't worry, Dubas will just wait around until Lou decides to leave" stuff never made sense.
CarltonTheBear said:
I don't know if taking a strictly analytical approach is a surefire way to win either. Florida by and large did this, and it seemed to crater their team. Injuries played a part in their demise for sure, but it seemed that they didn't have the same mojo as the year before.
Ultimately it's probably best to have someone in place who uses these things as a tool to perform the evaluation of the team, but doesn't fall in love with them to the point where it's dictating moves. I think that for the most part that describes what Dubas did in Sault Ste. Marie.
When they start talking about adding more "intangibles" to the team, that's where I think the problems will start.
Nik the Trik said:
Fair enough. I shouldn't have said "never really seemed to get brought up". Heck, I myself brought up the draft thing in regards to Girard at least a dozen times throughout the season. The talk just seemed to die down quite a bit.
Nik the Trik said:
I was actually pretty optimistic about Lou at first, so I hope people don't think I've been against him since the beginning. But I (naively, I guess) felt like he wouldn't be able to change the direction of the team as much as I think he has. I also remember saying that he absolutely shouldn't be sticking around for more than 2 seasons. That's all that would have been needed from him. Although I guess even if he did step down right now it still appears as though his influence would mean Hunter would be the one getting promoted.
Kin
New member
CarltonTheBear said:
For me it was never about being "against" him so much as it was that when he got hired we went from having Dubas saying really smart and insightful things in the media to hearing a lot of the old-timey "conventional wisdom" and Vince Lombardi-esque rah-rah nonsense that probably makes columnists happy but doesn't really reflect well on what had seemed to be a really forward thinking group.
Significantly Insignificant said:
Lots of managers have "cratered" their teams using the traditional approach too. It all depends on having the right person guiding the team. In the case of Florida, they decided to pick Tom Rowe to fill that role. I never really knew that much about him, but he has a long background as a NHL player and minor league coach, but seemed to have little-to-no front office experience at any level. So that was definitely a strange move by their part. Although like you alluded to as well, a combination of injuries and their 15/16 success being partially percentage-driven played a role in that groups failure as well.
But for years, going back to his OHL days, Dubas has shown that he could very likely be the right person to lead an analytical approach. Which yes, while I call it that, of course is not a team that makes every decision based solely on numbers from a spreadsheet. Traditional scouting methods and getting to know a player personally will always play a role too. And it's also about a new way of viewing how the game is playing and being the first to spot new trends that can help ultimately win hockey games. That's what Dubas did in the Soo. And prior to Lou putting his stamp on the team that's what he appeared to be doing with the Leafs.