Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas

[CarltonTheBear]

Is Rowe in the community or not?  If he uses analytics, but doesn't understand them, or if he uses them and does think they are the be all and the end all, does that revoke his community card?  I have no idea if Tom Rowe is in the analytics community.

What evidence is there that Rowe made all his decisions based solely on possession numbers?

 

[rdowdall]

Is Rowe in the community or not?  If he uses analytics, but doesn't understand them, or if he uses them and does think they are the be all and the end all, does that revoke his community card?  I have no idea if Tom Rowe is in the analytics community.

What evidence is there that Rowe made all his decisions based solely on possession numbers?

Just rumours I heard on the radio.  No evidence.  What evidence do you have the community as a whole, meaning a majority hates the term be all and the end all?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Just rumours I heard on the radio.  No evidence.  What evidence do you have the community as a whole, meaning a majority hates the term be all and the end all?

I never said they hate the term itself. They hate it when it's being used in a strawman argument against analytics. The analytical process isn't just looking at possession numbers and following them blindly. I'm going to go back to 1 post earlier today where you made two separate statements to sum up my final thoughts:

I don't know if taking a strictly analytical approach [strictly looking at possesion numbers] is a surefire way to win either.

Great. You just took a stand against an argument that nobody is making. Nobody thinks doing this will lead to a winning club. Tom Rowe and the Panthers didn't think doing that would lead to their club winning. They had a pretty diverse analytics crew there that looked at things way beyond simple possession numbers.

Ultimately it's probably best to have someone in place who uses these things as a tool to perform the evaluation of the team, but doesn't fall in love with them to the point where it's dictating moves.  I think that for the most part that describes what Dubas did in Sault Ste. Marie.

Yeah. THIS is what analytics people think you should do. THIS is what the "analytical approach" means. This is what Dubas did in the Soo.

I think you seem to generally see the value in using analytics as a tool but you have this weird misconception of how analytics people think hockey teams should be built. You're more on their side than you realize I think.

 

[Kin]

So the problem is my use of the term  "analytical approach".  I had meant this as strictly looking at possesion numbers.  Analytical approach in that statement meant using advanced stats solely as they relate to possession numbers.  Which is what was rumoured Rowe did in the offseason.  Looking only at possesion numbers, and not the other aspects of what a player can bring, doesn't seem destined to build a winner over any other way.

I mean, I can't speak to whatever rumours you heard but I'm pretty confident in saying that the Panthers didn't run their team strictly by any one metric. Regardless, it's still a bit of a moot point as nobody is making the case for Dubas as a manager because they think that all he'll do is run the team according to relatively simple possession metrics.

Using numbers badly, as I think everyone would agree is the case if a team only used one particular set of number to drive every decision they make, still isn't an indictment of the general concept.

Whether that was the main reason they stumbled through the season is up for debate.  I don't think that the decisions Rowe made paid off the way he had hoped.  If it was all just the injuries, then he probably made the right moves last offseason. 

Why the Panthers were worse is probably the result of a number of factors. Injuries, age catching up with some guys, the fact that last year's Panthers punched a little above their weight...it doesn't have to be any one thing but regardless, I think we can rule out them improving their defense as a reason for their downfall. 

The simplification comes from my use of the term analytics to only refer to possession numbers.  In this case I think they are a useful tool for a GM to use, but shouldn't always be used the be all and the end all when it comes to evaluating their team.

Which, again, is a position taken by nobody. Not advocates for Dubas and certainly not Dubas himself.

 

[jdh1]

I,m thinking that Hunter has about 20 years of more hockey experience than Dubas,played in the NHL ,I think with Montreal as well,maybe even under Bowman,s coaching.He's been in hockey a long time,seems to know talent.

However saying all that Dubas might be the man in the long run.

History has provided many examples that show that having played the game professionally does not provide any real advantage or insight when it comes to coaching or managing a team. There's been many more former players that were failures than successes.

Really  Ok  Lets give Dubas the job.

 

[rdowdall]

Just rumours I heard on the radio.  No evidence.  What evidence do you have the community as a whole, meaning a majority hates the term be all and the end all?

I never said they hate the term itself. They hate it when it's being used in a strawman argument against analytics. The analytical process isn't just looking at possession numbers and following them blindly. I'm going to go back to 1 post earlier today where you made two separate statements to sum up my final thoughts:

I don't know if taking a strictly analytical approach [strictly looking at possesion numbers] is a surefire way to win either.

Great. You just took a stand against an argument that nobody is making. Nobody thinks doing this will lead to a winning club. Tom Rowe and the Panthers didn't think doing that would lead to their club winning. They had a pretty diverse analytics crew there that looked at things way beyond simple possession numbers.

Ultimately it's probably best to have someone in place who uses these things as a tool to perform the evaluation of the team, but doesn't fall in love with them to the point where it's dictating moves.  I think that for the most part that describes what Dubas did in Sault Ste. Marie.

Yeah. THIS is what analytics people think you should do. THIS is what the "analytical approach" means. This is what Dubas did in the Soo.

I think you seem to generally see the value in using analytics as a tool but you have this weird misconception of how analytics people think hockey teams should be built. You're more on their side than you realize I think.

I'm saying you can't fall in love with one specific way of analyzing a team. 

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/florida-panthers-remove-gm-title-from-dale-tallon-but-dont-worry-hes-ok-with-it

From the article:

""I like his professionalism and his hard work," Tallon said. "He's old school in some ways and contemporary in others."
Which brings us to the most compelling question surrounding the South Florida Shake-Up: How big will analytics be in the Panthers' future? After all, that's where Joyce and Werier made their bones. According to Rowe, it will be a factor, but not the only measurement. Live scouting, advanced stats and video scouting will work together to make evaluations and there will still be a place in the Florida dressing room for guys who bring intangibles (Shawn Thornton and Willie Mitchell being recent examples) more than they do great possession numbers."

The reason that paragraph is important is that there were rumours that Rowe was building the team completely around possession metrics.  That if you comprised a team that had strong possession numbers that the team would in turn be a strong possession team.  The above paragraph sounds that it was added to put minds at ease.  The reason I find this interesting is that they include advanced stats in the paragraph, and later possession metrics specifically.

This rumour was reiterated by Maguire on the team 1200 in early November when the Panthers struggled.  I can't find the actual podcast, but I remember him stating that he had heard that the team lead by Rowe had constructed the team with a very high weight attached to possession metrics.  Now Maguire is old school, and doesn't like the "analytics" community.  He often sites signings as being "analytics" signings and he does make a point of bringing of signings that aren't all that good because of this. 

I disagree with Maguires sentiments on analytics, but I also think that it's foolish to construct a team based on one set of stats.  The stats themselves don't happen in a vacuum.  You can't put together a team entirely comprised of high possession players because that might place some of them in roles where they aren't able to achieve the same possession statistics.  It's kind of like how the Rangers tried to construct teams of superstars pre-cap, and those teams wouldn't achieve all that much.

 

[herman]

I'm saying you can't fall in love with one specific way of analyzing a team. 

I'm not sure anyone was arguing for this here.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://www.fanragsports.com/news/friedman-believe-window-closed-avalanche-dubas/

Sportsnet?s Elliotte Friedman had reported on the window earlier in the week, but the Insider revealed his latest update on the situation during a radio hit on Calgary?s Sportsnet 960 on Friday morning.

?This is a weird story,? began Friedman. ?There?s been a lot of twists and turns here?

?First of all, I think it?s over. That whatever window was there since I reported it ? and one of the things I said on Tuesday when I mentioned it is I?m not exactly sure when it stands. Sometimes when you actually go to air with something or write something it brings even more clarity, and that?s the case here.

?I believe the window is closed. I don?t think he?ll be going. And I believe that Toronto closed the window. That initially they were willing to let him go, and then they weren?t. And so I think that?s kind of where it stands here.

?It?s an interesting situation. There was some pushback from Colorado at the beginning in saying that it wasn?t accurate and it didn?t happen. And I think that it?s possible that there were people in Colorado who didn?t know that it had happened.

?But there was definitely contact. There was permission given. And for whatever reason ? and only Toronto knows, and you?ve got a better chance of getting the nuclear codes than probably this information out of Toronto ? but I think Toronto revoked permission and I don?t think he?s going.?

I'd like to think Shanahan read my posts here and that set him straight.

 

[Zee]

https://www.fanragsports.com/news/friedman-believe-window-closed-avalanche-dubas/

Sportsnet?s Elliotte Friedman had reported on the window earlier in the week, but the Insider revealed his latest update on the situation during a radio hit on Calgary?s Sportsnet 960 on Friday morning.

?This is a weird story,? began Friedman. ?There?s been a lot of twists and turns here?

?First of all, I think it?s over. That whatever window was there since I reported it ? and one of the things I said on Tuesday when I mentioned it is I?m not exactly sure when it stands. Sometimes when you actually go to air with something or write something it brings even more clarity, and that?s the case here.

?I believe the window is closed. I don?t think he?ll be going. And I believe that Toronto closed the window. That initially they were willing to let him go, and then they weren?t. And so I think that?s kind of where it stands here.

?It?s an interesting situation. There was some pushback from Colorado at the beginning in saying that it wasn?t accurate and it didn?t happen. And I think that it?s possible that there were people in Colorado who didn?t know that it had happened.

?But there was definitely contact. There was permission given. And for whatever reason ? and only Toronto knows, and you?ve got a better chance of getting the nuclear codes than probably this information out of Toronto ? but I think Toronto revoked permission and I don?t think he?s going.?

I'd like to think Shanahan read my posts here and that set him straight.

Or Friedman is totally off base with his inside info.  He obviously didn't get the info from the Leafs side, so he's going by whatever was told to him by some source close to Colorado.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Or Friedman is totally off base with his inside info.  He obviously didn't get the info from the Leafs side, so he's going by whatever was told to him by some source close to Colorado.

Friedman's not really one to go out with information he isn't pretty confident in. Especially since he'd have to know anything Leafs-related would blow up. It does bring up the interesting question of who leaked it to him and why.

 

[herman]

I'd like to think Shanahan read my posts here and that set him straight.

Doing the Lord (Stanley)'s work.

 

[rdowdall]

I'm saying you can't fall in love with one specific way of analyzing a team. 

I'm not sure anyone was arguing for this here.

Yeah be you see the pre.....[begin_inner_monologue] Well you've really stepped in it this time haven't you?  What are you going to do here?  Better not let them see you sweat.  It's an internet forum, how are they going to see me sweat?  They could use the webcam on your laptop.  I doubt very highly that anyone at tmlfans.ca knows how to turn on my webcam, and if they do, well then we should probably feel sorry for them if they happened to turn it on the other night.

They have a point, you are arguing something that wasn't brought up.  I know, I know, it's just that when people bring this sort of thing up, it seems to be implied that you go one route or the other.  Even one of CtB's first posts mentioned a shift from one methodology to the other, which kind of implies that you do it one way or the other.  Yeah, but then later on he talks about how you don't really do that and it's an amalgamated approach.  Yeah, I know, but I really only skimmed that post.  Really!?!? You know the problems that happen with skimming the posts.  Well it's not my fault that it takes a while to read some of these posts. 

So what's the plan here?  Almost need like a internet forum smoke bomb.  I could delete all my posts, and then wander back in and be all like "Hey, what's this about Dubas, is everything alright here?".  Well 1, they have some of your posts in some responses, and 2, they aren't going to read it in their heads like it was being said by Matthew McConaughey's voice like you just did.  They might say it in McConaughey's voice.  No, they will most assuredly not. 

We could create a "Little Bobby Tables" user and see if they are checking their database inputs properly?  You know that's not an internet smoke bomb and more of a nuclear option.  Move along to something else. 

You could draw a diagram, outlining your position.  Okay, right brain, when I need your opinion, I'll get some charcoal and parchment paper, okay?  Great, now my right side of the brain is crying.  I'll have to fix that later. 

Okay, what do I do here?  Call someone Hitler or a Nazi.  Well Goodwin's Law does state that it will throw the forum off topic, but I don't think we should rely on that here, and it's kind of apparent what you are trying to do.  You need to come up with something better, something more relevant for today.  Something that will still throw the forum off topic but not be apparent.....[end_inner_monologue]...lusion that making that sort of statement falls in line with something that Trump would say.  [begin_inner_monologue]  Okay, I think that went well.  No one noticed a thing.  Now I need to find where I left my parchment paper. [end_inner_monologue]

 

[herman]

;D

Heroic Shrimp posted this but it got wiped by the website move.

https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/868509996526575617
www.twitter.com/mirtle/status/868509996526575617

Friedman's 30 Thoughts elaborates further as to what happened with the story.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-future-hold-dubas-leafs/

Buried in both is the note that Dubas signed a three year deal in 2014, and this situation was resolved with an unannounced contract extension and insinuations that Shanahan is the reason for this despite the front office tension and apparent exile of Dubas.

My guess, based on these reports, is that Dubas was courted by Colorado's search committee and got clearance from Toronto to interview Dubas for the GM slot. Following the interview (probably a month or two ago), Dubas came back with the result (an offer?) and indicated to Shanahan he plans to accept the position given how his role here has been swept under the rug. Shanahan pitched a counter offer that renewed Toronto's commitment to Dubas (maybe in conjunction with adjusting the Brain Trust's skewed dynamic) and they plan to make the announcement following the drafts, on the eve of Free Agency.

 

[Kin]

My guess, based on these reports, is that Dubas was courted by Colorado's search committee and got clearance from Toronto to interview Dubas for the GM slot. Following the interview (probably a month or two ago), Dubas came back with the result (an offer?) and indicated to Shanahan he plans to accept the position given how his role here has been swept under the rug. Shanahan pitched a counter offer that renewed Toronto's commitment to Dubas (maybe in conjunction with adjusting the Brain Trust's skewed dynamic) and they plan to make the announcement following the drafts, on the eve of Free Agency.

That directly contradicts what Friedman reported but, well, everyone loves a game of twister.

 

[herman]

That directly contradicts what Friedman reported but, well, everyone loves a game of twister.

I wasn't trying to, but I can't tell where I did. Help?

 

[Kin]

That directly contradicts what Friedman reported but, well, everyone loves a game of twister.

I wasn't trying to, but I can't tell where I did. Help?

You don't see a contradiction between your scenario and "Toronto revoked permission"?

 

[herman]

That directly contradicts what Friedman reported but, well, everyone loves a game of twister.

I wasn't trying to, but I can't tell where I did. Help?

You don't see a contradiction between your scenario and "Toronto revoked permission"?

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/friedman-window-closed-kyle-dubas-colorado/

?But there was definitely contact. There was permission given. And for whatever reason?and only Toronto knows, and you?ve got a better chance of getting the nuclear codes than probably this information out of Toronto?but I think Toronto revoked permission and I don?t think he?s going.?

I read that as a Friedman guess, not a Friedman report.

 

[Kin]

I read that as a Friedman guess, not a Friedman report.

He's not usually someone to make "guesses" when speaking publicly but even still in conjunction with the Mirtle piece it seems pretty reasonable to maybe back that play.

 

[herman]

I read that as a Friedman guess, not a Friedman report.

He's not usually someone to make "guesses" when speaking publicly but even still in conjunction with the Mirtle piece it seems pretty reasonable to maybe back that play.

Fair enough. Mirtle does echo Friedman's read, and they both have the benefit of firsthand conversations. Logistically, I don't see how the Leafs could rescind permission without this backfiring in some Dubas-is-gone sort of way.

 

[Zee]

Amazing how much drama can be raised with no official word from anyone on the Leafs including Dubas.