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Contracts for the Big-3

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cabber24 said:
Zee said:
cabber24 said:
Frank E said:
Is this what momentum feels like?
But, but, 3,000 sources said the deal was imminent.

I blame Blundell

Dean Blundell
‏Verified account @ItsDeanBlundell
14m14 minutes ago

New Podcast coming in minutes.  Daren Millard with definitive news about Nylander and Dean has a big announcement....
D E F I N I T I V E.

Here's my definitive news: no agreement has been reached yet.
 
cabber24 said:
Dean Blundell
‏Verified account @ItsDeanBlundell
14m14 minutes ago

New Podcast coming in minutes.  Daren Millard with definitive news about Nylander and Dean has a big announcement....

Now he's exploiting the story to get people to listen to his podcast. I gotta admit, Dean is good at what he does (being shitty).
 
Nik the Trik said:
I'm not sure I see what's so misleading. Inferring that Sundin is referring to his own history with the club rather than commenting on the situation at hand?

You?d think from the headline that Sundin had some interesting opinion on the matter.
 
Did anyone listen to the troll? The podcast is posted. If one of you guys could take one for the team I would appreciate it. I do not want to feed the troll.
 
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-goalies-odds-nhl-new-equipment/

6. You can?t get through any NHL news piece (written or broadcast) without a William Nylander update. The Maple Leafs and agent Lewis Gross are trying to keep a lid on things, but the prevailing feeling is their meetings earlier this week were cordial and productive. That said, we don?t have a deal (yet). On the long term, the team wishes to keep it under $7 million. On the short term, the player isn?t interested in something at or under $20 million on a four-year contract. It?s still a grind.

7. I mentioned to another agent that if I were in Nylander?s shoes, I?d consider two or three years and bet on myself. He said he understands why the advice might be against that.

?We?re headed into another CBA negotiation,? he replied. ?You can?t be sure what?s going to happen to contracts as part of that. The term limits, the signing bonuses may be more limited than now.?

8. Also spent some time asking players what they thought about Toronto?s attempt to convince Nylander that he wouldn?t be signed and immediately traded, that he was an important part of what they want to build. After listening to their responses, I understand why this part of the negotiation is a challenge for Kyle Dubas. Players are curious about him, a young GM with different ideas running the biggest ship in the fleet. They are intrigued by his ability to pull off the John Tavares signing. But they are wary of the business decisions that must be made. As one player pointed out, ?I was traded twice by the time I was 25.? Another added he was moved around so much he decided to save his money, not buying a house until getting a longer-term deal late in his career.

?Let?s say you do trust [Dubas],? said a third. ?I could see [Nylander] wanting to, because he likes Toronto and [the GM] clearly believes in him. It?s not something you think about right now, because everything his going his way, but what happens if, for some reason, he?s no longer the decision-maker??

Thought #7 is why I think Marner and Matthews probably get theirs done during this season.
 
herman said:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-goalies-odds-nhl-new-equipment/

6. You can?t get through any NHL news piece (written or broadcast) without a William Nylander update. The Maple Leafs and agent Lewis Gross are trying to keep a lid on things, but the prevailing feeling is their meetings earlier this week were cordial and productive. That said, we don?t have a deal (yet). On the long term, the team wishes to keep it under $7 million. On the short term, the player isn?t interested in something at or under $20 million on a four-year contract. It?s still a grind.

7. I mentioned to another agent that if I were in Nylander?s shoes, I?d consider two or three years and bet on myself. He said he understands why the advice might be against that.

?We?re headed into another CBA negotiation,? he replied. ?You can?t be sure what?s going to happen to contracts as part of that. The term limits, the signing bonuses may be more limited than now.?

8. Also spent some time asking players what they thought about Toronto?s attempt to convince Nylander that he wouldn?t be signed and immediately traded, that he was an important part of what they want to build. After listening to their responses, I understand why this part of the negotiation is a challenge for Kyle Dubas. Players are curious about him, a young GM with different ideas running the biggest ship in the fleet. They are intrigued by his ability to pull off the John Tavares signing. But they are wary of the business decisions that must be made. As one player pointed out, ?I was traded twice by the time I was 25.? Another added he was moved around so much he decided to save his money, not buying a house until getting a longer-term deal late in his career.

?Let?s say you do trust [Dubas],? said a third. ?I could see [Nylander] wanting to, because he likes Toronto and [the GM] clearly believes in him. It?s not something you think about right now, because everything his going his way, but what happens if, for some reason, he?s no longer the decision-maker??

Thought #7 is why I think Marner and Matthews probably get theirs done during this season.

And it's why I guess I don't really understand how a player like Nylander wouldn't prioritize a 7- or 8-year deal for (say) $6.5.  7 x 6.5 = $45.5M.  Let's say you net half of that after taxes, agent's cut, etc.  Call it $23M.  Unless you let Jack Johnson's parents invest it for you, you are going to get over $1M a year at 5% ROI.  So after your 7 years you will have netted around $30M.  All of which cannot be affected by future GMs, the next CBA, etc.  It's locked in with respect to those variables.  The only financial/market uncertainties you are exposing yourself to are the ones we all are exposed to.

If you somehow got your 8.5x7 that's $14M gross more, $7M after taxes/fees.  That net amount is (very) roughly equal to the ROI I napkinned above over the life of the contract.  So by holding out for $8.5, you basically double your ROI. 

Which is great.  If you can get it.

The key point is, under any long-term contract scenario at the numbers being bandied about, Nylander and his family are set for life.  That kind of money is more than anyone needs to live a very comfortable life if they manage it conservatively.  And once you have that kind of money, you are essentially assured that your wealth will get bigger (assuming the global economy doesn't collapse).

Bridge deals don't let you lock that in.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
herman said:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-goalies-odds-nhl-new-equipment/

6. You can?t get through any NHL news piece (written or broadcast) without a William Nylander update. The Maple Leafs and agent Lewis Gross are trying to keep a lid on things, but the prevailing feeling is their meetings earlier this week were cordial and productive. That said, we don?t have a deal (yet). On the long term, the team wishes to keep it under $7 million. On the short term, the player isn?t interested in something at or under $20 million on a four-year contract. It?s still a grind.

7. I mentioned to another agent that if I were in Nylander?s shoes, I?d consider two or three years and bet on myself. He said he understands why the advice might be against that.

?We?re headed into another CBA negotiation,? he replied. ?You can?t be sure what?s going to happen to contracts as part of that. The term limits, the signing bonuses may be more limited than now.?

8. Also spent some time asking players what they thought about Toronto?s attempt to convince Nylander that he wouldn?t be signed and immediately traded, that he was an important part of what they want to build. After listening to their responses, I understand why this part of the negotiation is a challenge for Kyle Dubas. Players are curious about him, a young GM with different ideas running the biggest ship in the fleet. They are intrigued by his ability to pull off the John Tavares signing. But they are wary of the business decisions that must be made. As one player pointed out, ?I was traded twice by the time I was 25.? Another added he was moved around so much he decided to save his money, not buying a house until getting a longer-term deal late in his career.

?Let?s say you do trust [Dubas],? said a third. ?I could see [Nylander] wanting to, because he likes Toronto and [the GM] clearly believes in him. It?s not something you think about right now, because everything his going his way, but what happens if, for some reason, he?s no longer the decision-maker??

Thought #7 is why I think Marner and Matthews probably get theirs done during this season.

And it's why I guess I don't really understand how a player like Nylander wouldn't prioritize a 7- or 8-year deal for (say) $6.5.  7 x 6.5 = $45.5M.  Let's say you net half of that after taxes, agent's cut, etc.  Call it $23M.  Unless you let Jack Johnson's parents invest it for you, you are going to get over $1M a year at 5% ROI.  So after your 7 years you will have netted around $30M.  All of which cannot be affected by future GMs, the next CBA, etc.  It's locked in with respect to those variables.  The only financial/market uncertainties you are exposing yourself to are the ones we all are exposed to.

If you somehow got your 8.5x7 that's $14M gross more, $7M after taxes/fees.  That net amount is (very) roughly equal to the ROI I napkinned above over the life of the contract.  So by holding out for $8.5, you basically double your ROI. 

Which is great.  If you can get it.

The key point is, under any long-term contract scenario at the numbers being bandied about, Nylander and his family are set for life.  That kind of money is more than anyone needs to live a very comfortable life if they manage it conservatively.  And once you have that kind of money, you are essentially assured that your wealth will get bigger (assuming the global economy doesn't collapse).

Bridge deals don't let you lock that in.
Hey ZBBM,  unfortunately the global economy did collapse yesterday, all us poor F----s won't find out about it till Monday when we arrive at work and find the doors chained shut!
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
And it's why I guess I don't really understand how a player like Nylander wouldn't prioritize a 7- or 8-year deal for (say) $6.5.  7 x 6.5 = $45.5M.  Let's say you net half of that after taxes, agent's cut, etc.  Call it $23M.  Unless you let Jack Johnson's parents invest it for you, you are going to get over $1M a year at 5% ROI.  So after your 7 years you will have netted around $30M.  All of which cannot be affected by future GMs, the next CBA, etc.  It's locked in with respect to those variables.  The only financial/market uncertainties you are exposing yourself to are the ones we all are exposed to.

Just for what it's worth, I don't think that's strictly true. Signed deals absolutely can be affected by a new CBA, whether it's through salary rollbacks or increased escrow payments.

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
The key point is, under any long-term contract scenario at the numbers being bandied about, Nylander and his family are set for life.  That kind of money is more than anyone needs to live a very comfortable life if they manage it conservatively.  And once you have that kind of money, you are essentially assured that your wealth will get bigger (assuming the global economy doesn't collapse).

Bridge deals don't let you lock that in.

I think an important factor, as has been raised a few times here, is that Nylander's family is already set for life. His father made a lot of money in his career. Whatever future family he may have isn't set in the same way but it's asking a lot to think a 22 year old single guy is going to be making decisions based on what might ultimately be best for whatever children he may or may not have in the future.

But even beyond that I think you're only presenting one side of the coin here. Let's say there are three outcomes here(although there are way more):

Outcome 1: 7 years/6.5m AAV/45.5 million total

Outcome 2: 7 years/8m AAV/56 million total

Outcome 3: 3 years/5 million AAV/15 million total

Now, let's ignore the semantics of whether or not taking in the net 9.2 million or so Nylander would take home by your rough math in outcome 3 would effectively already set up his future family for life making the general premise moot. Realistically, how bad would things have to go for Nylander over those three years for him not to be able to sign a four year follow up deal that would pay him roughly what he'd make from Outcome 1 anyway? To equal that 45.5 million Nylander would have to be worth roughly 7.5 million in three years. A pretty moderate growth in his value. Even no growth at all would see him make 35 million over those 7 years. The idea of that 45.5 million being some sort of elusive target that he needs to lock down lest he risk some sense of financial security doesn't really hold up.

So that's what you're not taking into account. Nylander's family is almost certainly set no matter what and he's in a "Heads you win, Tails you win a little less" scenario no matter what he does.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
And it's why I guess I don't really understand how a player like Nylander wouldn't prioritize a 7- or 8-year deal for (say) $6.5.  7 x 6.5 = $45.5M.  Let's say you net half of that after taxes, agent's cut, etc.  Call it $23M.  Unless you let Jack Johnson's parents invest it for you, you are going to get over $1M a year at 5% ROI.  So after your 7 years you will have netted around $30M.

Also, I don't think this math really works. Using your 23 million estimate of his take home he's not going to make more than a million per year at 5% ROI because he's not getting paid the entirety of his contract as a lump sum. The first year 5% ROI would be 164,000 before taxes.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
And it's why I guess I don't really understand how a player like Nylander wouldn't prioritize a 7- or 8-year deal for (say) $6.5.  7 x 6.5 = $45.5M.  Let's say you net half of that after taxes, agent's cut, etc.  Call it $23M.  Unless you let Jack Johnson's parents invest it for you, you are going to get over $1M a year at 5% ROI.  So after your 7 years you will have netted around $30M.

Also, I don't think this math really works. Using your 23 million estimate of his take home he's not going to make more than a million per year at 5% ROI because he's not getting paid the entirety of his contract as a lump sum. The first year 5% ROI would be 164,000 before taxes.

Like I said, napkinned.  If it's a front-loaded deal the math is pretty close.  But more to the point, and as you say we can argue forever about what "set for life" means to any particular person, a bridge deal simply leaves a ton of money on table any way you figure it, and into that window of uncertainty comes, most threateningly, the prospect of a serious injury.

Your point about CBA rollbacks is well taken (though the mention of restrictions on signing bonuses has to be thrown into the balance there), but the capriciousness of GMs is still out there.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Like I said, napkinned.  If it's a front-loaded deal the math is pretty close.  But more to the point, and as you say we can argue forever about what "set for life" means to any particular person, a bridge deal simply leaves a ton of money on table any way you figure it, and into that window of uncertainty comes, most threateningly, the prospect of a serious injury.

I think the actual chances of the sort of injury you're talking about are remote enough that it's hard to imagine it playing a huge role in Nylander's decision making. Besides, as I've said on this subject, it can be insured against.

Leaving aside that the sort of bonus/upfront salary structure you're talking about is also something that needs to be negotiated rather than just taken as a given, I think we're just back to the reality that it's a calculated gamble on Nylander's part. The idea that it's "leaving money on the table" isn't really meaningfully true. By not taking a long term deal at that AAV Nylander is betting he'll raise his value enough over the next three years that he ultimately earns more over the seven year window.

You might think that's a bad gamble but like I said, if the person making it is already rich and the downside is they get richer still then it's the sort of thing that may entice and has proven pretty successful in the past for guys like Subban and Johansen. It's certainly not hard to imagine why a very successful 22 year old might favour self-confidence over the possibility unexpected catastrophe in his decision making.
 
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