General Leafs Talk

[pnjunction]

I hope for the best but it never happens. Expecting the worst helps turn at least some of the pain into amusement.

I think if I couldn't make some fun out of watching them fail I'd have picked up the pieces of my heart and moved on years ago.

 

[Bender]

I hope for the best but it never happens. Expecting the worst helps turn at least some of the pain into amusement.

I think if I couldn't make some fun out of watching them fail I'd have picked up the pieces of my heart and moved on years ago.

I understand, but hoping for a top 5 pick is a silver lining, which is what I'm hoping for. What I'm NOT hoping for is a 9th or 10th finish and a #12 pick. To just see that kind of "everything will be the worst case scenario" in every topic of the team in every thread it starts to get grating. Not referring to you btw.

 

[maplesyrup]

Been gone about 10 days... So, the broad strokes are; ???

1. Wilson lost the room, Carlyle can't find it.
2. Grabo's agent got the best of Burke.
3. Lupul is done.
4. The mission is now a lottery pick.
5. Ashton looks okay and for a team who was supposed to make a big last-ditch push for the playoffs, his call-up over Kadri probably means he's already further ahead?

Am I missing anything else? 

 

[Kin]

2. Grabo's agent got the best of Burke.

I wouldn't call that a consensus or even the popular opinion.

 

[maplesyrup]

2. Grabo's agent got the best of Burke.

I wouldn't call that a consensus or even the popular opinion.

I've just gone through the thread and yes, it seems pretty split in there but my feeling right now is pretty much the same now as it was when I first heard it. Ouch, Ugh, etc, etc. Anyway, if he can get 340/350 points over those 5 years, I suppose I'll be happy. I think he's capable but I don't think its a slam dunk either. Anyway, there's a thread on the signing... perhaps we should keep the discussion there.

 

[Kin]

I've just gone through the thread and yes, it seems pretty split in there but my feeling right now is pretty much the same now as it was when I first heard it. Ouch, Ugh, etc, etc.

Realistically, it was at or even a bit less than his market value would have been. As people pointed out, he was set to be the best free agent centre available.

I think people are focusing too much on the AAV and not on the total compensation. Signing a very good UFA or pending UFA to a 5 year deal is always going to come with a significant cap hit.

 

[maplesyrup]

Maybe I need more time to digest it. Either way, it's currently not sitting well with me.

 

[Zee]

First set - excellent
7-2-1

Second set
4-5-1

Third set
5-4-1

Fourth set
4-4-2

Fifth set
5-4-1

Sixth set
4-5-1

Next 10:
San Jose L
Washington L
Florida L
@Chicago L
@Montreal W
Boston  -- L
@Pittsburgh L
Philadelphia OTL
@Washington L
@Florida


1-7-1.  The 7-2-1 start seems so long ago....

Next 10
@Tampa Bay
@Ottawa
@Boston
NY Islanders
@New Jersey
NY Rangers
Carolina
Philadelphia
Buffalo
@Buffalo

Fun fact, Leafs need to go 8-4-1 over the last 13 games just to TIE last seasons 85 points.  Yes, this team is worse than last year 

 

[bustaheims]

Been gone about 10 days... So, the broad strokes are; ???

1. Wilson lost the room, Carlyle can't find it.

Neither of these really seem to be true. The team still competed hard for the most part under Wilson at the end, and didn't look like a team that had quit on their coach. They just weren't good enough. As for Carlyle - as I said before Wilson was removed, it generally takes at least 8-10 games for a new coach to begin to turn things around, and often takes an entire month. We're already seeing some of Carlyle's influence on their play, but, in reality, the full effect won't be known until next season.

2. Grabo's agent got the best of Burke.

As Nik covered, not really true.

3. Lupul is done.
4. The mission is now a lottery pick.

For us, the fans, yes.

5. Ashton looks okay and for a team who was supposed to make a big last-ditch push for the playoffs, his call-up over Kadri probably means he's already further ahead?

No. It means Ashton was the better fit for the role they needed to replace - a physical, bottom 6 guy. That's hopefully not his future role, but, it's something he's better suited for right now than Kadri is.

 

[cw]

Been gone about 10 days... So, the broad strokes are; ???

1. Wilson lost the room, Carlyle can't find it.

I think that's premature. Many coaching changes we've seen even this season take time. For the first 10 games or so, the team continues to struggle and then the new coach's changes start to take and the team starts playing better. 

Carlyle is working on the team defence. Often an effort like that takes away from the offence at the outset. I think we've seen that with their recent loss of offence. Eventually, they'll find a better balance as they get used to the new changes.

2. Grabo's agent got the best of Burke.

I'm with Nik on that.

It's a rotten market for top 6 NHL centers - they're hard to come by.  Like the last time they re-signed Grabbo, Burke was between a rock and a hard place.

5. Ashton looks okay and for a team who was supposed to make a big last-ditch push for the playoffs, his call-up over Kadri probably means he's already further ahead?

I think Ashton potentially fills a different need that Kadri cannot: a big body in the top 9 who may be better defensively and a guy who uses that size to go to the net.

 

[rdowdall]

Been gone about 10 days... So, the broad strokes are; ???

1. Wilson lost the room, Carlyle can't find it.

I think that's premature. Many coaching changes we've seen even this season take time. For the first 10 games or so, the team continues to struggle and then the new coach's changes start to take and the team starts playing better. 

Carlyle is working on the team defence. Often an effort like that takes away from the offence at the outset. I think we've seen that with their recent loss of offence. Eventually, they'll find a better balance as they get used to the new changes.

2. Grabo's agent got the best of Burke.

I'm with Nik on that.

It's a rotten market for top 6 NHL centers - they're hard to come by.  Like the last time they re-signed Grabbo, Burke was between a rock and a hard place.

5. Ashton looks okay and for a team who was supposed to make a big last-ditch push for the playoffs, his call-up over Kadri probably means he's already further ahead?

I think Ashton potentially fills a different need that Kadri cannot: a big body in the top 9 who may be better defensively and a guy who uses that size to go to the net.

Also, I think they know what they have in Kadri.  I think they wanted to get a better look at Ashton.  Colborne and Kadri are probably better served playing in meaningful games in the AHL for the next little bit than playing out the string in the NHL.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

busta and cw's posts are so eerily similar.

 

[maplesyrup]

busta and cw's posts are so eerily similar.

They sure do... Anyway, thanks for your 2 cents, lads... I've got some catching up to do.

 

[ZBBM]

Carlyle is working on the team defence. Often an effort like that takes away from the offence at the outset. I think we've seen that with their recent loss of offence. Eventually, they'll find a better balance as they get used to the new changes.

I agree with this.  All the losses have been by 1 goal except last night -- no blowouts.  It's not much, but is an indication that the defense is being tightened up.  Something Wilson never ever could really do.

 

[bustaheims]

busta and cw's posts are so eerily similar.

Enclosed is a .pdf attachment, a picture of yourself in a boat on a river. It's a river that flows in two directions. Make that three. It's a magic river. That's how. It is flowing down the eerie canal to... The Scary Door. That's eerie with two Es.

 

[bbt]

Most goals win and Leafs can't score goals....went to the game last nite and three things were frustrating as h---

1.  Leafs use of the trap....working but BORING...take a look at Minnesota and that is the hockey your going to be looking at years to come under Carlye.

2.  Cycling Down Low....Leafs are very good at it, but not a Leaf to be found in front of the net. Shot and after shot out of the strike zone....goalies seeing the puck = saves, plus only one shot on net in first 9 minutes of the 3rd period.  And by the way, Kessel needs to put "I'm Afraidy" on his back, never seen a guy shy away from the hits as much as he does, its embrassing to have Caps fans point that out as your touting what an offensive threat he is.

3.  Power Play/Offensive Point Shots....do the Leafs have anyone that can rocket from the point with at least some accuracy?  Time and again you have Phanuef firing blindly from the point, most of the time hitting a defender (of course no Leaf in front of the net either for screening or deflection).  Schenn taking stupid wrist shots from the point either 10 fee wide or three feet over the net.  That guy has absolutely no shot at ALL and you can tell he has no confidence in his slap shot as he doesn't take one.

Averaging less than 2 goals a game!  Not going to win many games here on out......

 

[Zee]

I've been doing this all season, I might as well finish this horror show up.


First set - excellent
7-2-1

Second set
4-5-1

Third set
5-4-1

Fourth set
4-4-2

Fifth set
5-4-1

Sixth set
4-5-1

Seventh set
1-8-1

Next 10
@Tampa Bay
@Ottawa
@Boston
NY Islanders
@New Jersey
NY Rangers
Carolina
Philadelphia
Buffalo
@Buffalo

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

For those interested in advanced stats, an interesting take on the Leafs season (and some admittedly bad luck during this stretch) using PDO.

http://theleafsnation.com/2012/3/14/the-toronto-maple-leafs-inevitable-regression

 

[ZBBM]

For those interested in advanced stats, an interesting take on the Leafs season (and some admittedly bad luck during this stretch) using PDO.

http://theleafsnation.com/2012/3/14/the-toronto-maple-leafs-inevitable-regression

I haven't looked into advanced stats in any detail, but the PDO mentioned here, and the stats quoted, look at first glance to me like a simple metric that doesn't tell you much more than almost every sample regresses to the mean.  Also, in the link where it is claimed that PDO is the most important hockey stat, the author justifies its use by claiming that shooting percentage is mostly "luck."  Introducing "luck" as hypothesized justification for a stat is hardly scientific.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

For those interested in advanced stats, an interesting take on the Leafs season (and some admittedly bad luck during this stretch) using PDO.

http://theleafsnation.com/2012/3/14/the-toronto-maple-leafs-inevitable-regression

I haven't looked into advanced stats in any detail, but the PDO mentioned here, and the stats quoted, look at first glance to me like a simple metric that doesn't tell you much more than almost every sample regresses to the mean.  Also, in the link where it is claimed that PDO is the most important hockey stat, the author justifies its use by claiming that shooting percentage is mostly "luck."  Introducing "luck" as hypothesized justification for a stat is hardly scientific.

Seems to make sense to me.  The league average is a PDO of 1, combining SH% and SV%, so teams with above average goalies can get above this, teams with poor goaltending can fall below it.  It's not denying the ability of individual players to be great scorers and play solid defense, it's just averaging it out.

He seemed to be right when he predicted the Leafs falling back to the 1 level, and now recently, below it.

Teams with better goalies can expect a PDO of slightly over 1 to account for the fact that their save percentage will be higher in the long run, but for Toronto, who don't have a goalie who has posted above league average save percentage throughout a good length of time, they should expect a PDO of slightly below 1, in the 98.5% to 99.5% range without getting some serious luck shooting the puck as Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul were getting earlier in the season.

...you get a statistic that is almost 100% luck. How can this be? Surely there are players or lines who are higher-percentage finishers than others and can also play adequate defense? I'm not saying there aren't but for the vast majority of NHL regulars, a high PDO in one season comes crashing down the next. And many players with high one-ice shooting percentages get them by cheating offensively, which leaves them susceptible to higher-percentage opportunities against them at the other end of the ice.