Grabovski Bought Out

[Kin]

From 2009 to 2013, at 5 on 5 Grabovski put up 1.87 points/60 (in 2870:43 minutes) compared to Bozak's 1.52 (in 2864:14 minutes) (link: here).  If you go from 2010 to 2013 it is 1.86 (in  3652:40 minutes) to 1.34 (in 3354:12 minutes) (link: here.  Even going from 2011-13, Grabovski comes out ahead (link).

*Using 5 on 5 data for the bigger sample size/most of the games are played 5 on 5*

Leaving aside the problems with points/60 as a method of measuring offensive skill if the question is still total points then A) how they play on the PP is still a factor and B) the minutes they play aren't likely to be equal. These are two players with virtually identical points per game and being as I don't think either guy is going to be playing 60 minutes a night of five of five hockey next year(although I could be wrong) how much they actually score per game they play is probably the more relevant data.

 

[Kin]

Here are some more 5-on-5 stats that compare top UFA centers this year (Grabovski, Lecavalier, Filppula, Weiss, Ribeiro, Roy, Bozak):

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2013/07/05/evaluating-top-ufa-centers-and-why-you-dont-want-bozak/

Over the last 3 seasons, Bozak finishes last in points/60, goals/60, assists/60, % of goals that the player had a point in while he was on the ice.  Of course, this is while playing with vastly superior offensive linemates to Grabbo at least.

First, I've gone into this before but I think any sort of look like that is unfairly influenced by the one particularly off year Bozak had in 2010-2011 and how much you realistically think that paints a portrait of him going forward. I don't. I don't think it's reasonable to. In just about all of the cases you're mentioning the "the past three years" are comparing three years firmly in the middle of those players careers to three years at the beginning of Bozak's where, absolutely, he had growing pains. Admittedly, Bozak started late but still the next three years of Bozak's career takes him from the age of 27 to the age of30. The other centers next three years take them from 29-32 or 33-36. Considering that from our perspective as fans it's more about the next three years and the last I think that youth should be factored in.

Secondly, there are other things to consider besides points when it comes to evaluating a player. Even if I liked points/60 I don't think it's unfair to say that Bozak, at least this year, was used in a quasi-defensive role despite being on the first line. You guys like offensive zone starts as a measure of that, well, look at Bozak's this year compared to those guys. I think that speaks to the fact that he's a slightly more versatile player than those guys and being as he's playing on a line with Kessel and maybe Lupul who aren't great defensive players I think that should be taken into account when we look at not just who was the best free agent center but also what free agent center was the best fit for the team.

Here's something I don't quite get:  Overall, over the last couple of months on these boards, the impression that I get is that Nik is arguing that Nonis did a pretty decent job this offseason, from a fan's perspective.  But at the same time, I believe I've also heard Nik say that we've got some "meh" players playing key roles.  Nik thinks*  that both Grabbo and Bozak are kind of "meh" so it doesn't matter that much which one we have.**  Aren't you upset we've locked ourselves in to a "meh" team?  Perhaps you are just banking on massive cap increases that will allow us to play a guy like Bozak on the 3rd line while sliding in, say, a top UFA center in the future?

I don't know if I'd say "meh", exactly. I would say that regardless of the options Nonis had available to him he wasn't going to walk out of this summer with anyone at the #1 center spot that people would have been genuinely thrilled with. Of the options available to him, I think Lecavalier was the guy most thought of as being closest to that and Nonis tried to sign him. So I'm not judging Nonis on his inability to fix the #1 center spot when I don't think a fix was genuinely available.

Considering that of the guys mentioned Bozak is, as mentioned, the youngest and with the exception of Roy adding each of them would have seen the Leafs locked into a relatively similar length it's not so much that I'm happy with Bozak but that I'm relatively equally satisfied with Bozak as I am had Nonis signed any of those guys. I think Bozak brings some things to the Leafs that some of the others don't like familiarity, defensive ability and face-off winning(neither of which, I suppose, you put a ton of stock in but I think you'd at least agree the latter two are more important if the team doesn't have anyone else who is good at them) that probably made him my #2 choice among centers to sign behind Lecavalier. If looked at in complete and total isolation, where nothing like fit or who the coach is or the other players on the team or things like that matter you could probably talk me into an older, more expensive Grabo, who as I mention on a purely fan level I like a ton more than Bozak, as the better option but these things don't happen in isolation.

I don't love the length or AAV of the contract and I've said before I don't like the Clarkson signing but I suppose I'm not as concerned that the Leafs are locked into those deals until it actually proves that they are. Bozak, by virtue of being the youngest and cheapest available option, also reads to me as a guy you can potentially trade provided his value doesn't do a Grabo like-nose dive after signing his contract.

See, perhaps my biggest concern is that we've got "meh" players in key roles signed for very long periods of time (5 years for Bozak, 7 for Clarkson) at very high salaries and that is going to prevent us from improving.  So not only do I think that this year's team is weak, I'm worried that we are only going to get worse as our players on long-term contracts age.  I'd much, much rather have bought a guy like Tim Connolly for 1-2 years (eg: a guy like Derek Roy this year), like Burke did, hoping he'd pan out well enough but not committing long term if he doesn't.  And I'd much, much, much rather have signed MaCarthur to a 2-year deal instead of Clarkson to a 7-year deal.  And the offseason isn't done as I don't know what is going to happen with Franson and Kadri, but I'm concerned.

Yeah, the off-season isn't done so for me, it's really just about measuring my responses. You say that I feel that Nonis did a pretty decent job this off-season and while my reaction to that would be that he really needs to be evaluated after the Franson/Kadri situations play out because those are such big parts of this off-season but if I had to give the guy a partial grade, the difference between me and some folk here I'm responding to isn't the difference between a A+ and an F, it's the difference between, I don't know, a B- or C+ given on a friendly curve of the crummy options available to him and....what appears to be people sobbing hysterically and getting ready to light themselves on fire.

Now, maybe you think that's an unfair characterization and ok but just think of this: How much have the McLaren and Orr signings been lamented? A bit, right? Largely in terms of being evidence of misplaced priorities on Nonis' part both from a time management point of view and a team building point of view. It's contributed to the cap crunch and teams don't need two enforcers and so on and so forth, right? But neither is making enough money so that they couldn't, if space needs to be cleared up, sent down to the Marlies with any real cap space being taken. One or both of them might not make the final roster and all it costs is some of Rogers' and Bell's money. People are letting pessimism, and in some cases a slavish devotion to advanced numbers that don't have kinks worked out, override common sense.

 

[Tigger]

Yeah, the fit matters and only from that perspective do I understand the choice. On a direct comparison I could sum up the difference in simple fashion as Grabbo drove his line in the past while Bozak has had the benefit of Kessel driving his but ultimately there are/were larger factors influencing the roster decisions.

On balance I like what Nonis has done so far but it's early days for him, we'll see where the team's at during training camp next year to start really building statues or coming up with handles like DieNonisDie.

 

[princedpw]

Here are some more 5-on-5 stats that compare top UFA centers this year (Grabovski, Lecavalier, Filppula, Weiss, Ribeiro, Roy, Bozak):

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2013/07/05/evaluating-top-ufa-centers-and-why-you-dont-want-bozak/

Over the last 3 seasons, Bozak finishes last in points/60, goals/60, assists/60, % of goals that the player had a point in while he was on the ice.  Of course, this is while playing with vastly superior offensive linemates to Grabbo at least.

First, I've gone into this before but I think any sort of look like that is unfairly influenced by the one particularly off year Bozak had in 2010-2011 and how much you realistically think that paints a portrait of him going forward. I don't. I don't think it's reasonable to. In just about all of the cases you're mentioning the "the past three years" are comparing three years firmly in the middle of those players careers to three years at the beginning of Bozak's where, absolutely, he had growing pains. Admittedly, Bozak started late but still the next three years of Bozak's career takes him from the age of 27 to the age of30. The other centers next three years take them from 29-32 or 33-36. Considering that from our perspective as fans it's more about the next three years and the last I think that youth should be factored in.

Secondly, there are other things to consider besides points when it comes to evaluating a player. Even if I liked points/60 I don't think it's unfair to say that Bozak, at least this year, was used in a quasi-defensive role despite being on the first line. You guys like offensive zone starts as a measure of that, well, look at Bozak's this year compared to those guys. I think that speaks to the fact that he's a slightly more versatile player than those guys and being as he's playing on a line with Kessel and maybe Lupul who aren't great defensive players I think that should be taken into account when we look at not just who was the best free agent center but also what free agent center was the best fit for the team.

Here's something I don't quite get:  Overall, over the last couple of months on these boards, the impression that I get is that Nik is arguing that Nonis did a pretty decent job this offseason, from a fan's perspective.  But at the same time, I believe I've also heard Nik say that we've got some "meh" players playing key roles.  Nik thinks*  that both Grabbo and Bozak are kind of "meh" so it doesn't matter that much which one we have.**  Aren't you upset we've locked ourselves in to a "meh" team?  Perhaps you are just banking on massive cap increases that will allow us to play a guy like Bozak on the 3rd line while sliding in, say, a top UFA center in the future?

I don't know if I'd say "meh", exactly. I would say that regardless of the options Nonis had available to him he wasn't going to walk out of this summer with anyone at the #1 center spot that people would have been genuinely thrilled with. Of the options available to him, I think Lecavalier was the guy most thought of as being closest to that and Nonis tried to sign him. So I'm not judging Nonis on his inability to fix the #1 center spot when I don't think a fix was genuinely available.

Considering that of the guys mentioned Bozak is, as mentioned, the youngest and with the exception of Roy adding each of them would have seen the Leafs locked into a relatively similar length it's not so much that I'm happy with Bozak but that I'm relatively equally satisfied with Bozak as I am had Nonis signed any of those guys. I think Bozak brings some things to the Leafs that some of the others don't like familiarity, defensive ability and face-off winning(neither of which, I suppose, you put a ton of stock in but I think you'd at least agree the latter two are more important if the team doesn't have anyone else who is good at them) that probably made him my #2 choice among centers to sign behind Lecavalier. If looked at in complete and total isolation, where nothing like fit or who the coach is or the other players on the team or things like that matter you could probably talk me into an older, more expensive Grabo, who as I mention on a purely fan level I like a ton more than Bozak, as the better option but these things don't happen in isolation.

I don't love the length or AAV of the contract and I've said before I don't like the Clarkson signing but I suppose I'm not as concerned that the Leafs are locked into those deals until it actually proves that they are. Bozak, by virtue of being the youngest and cheapest available option, also reads to me as a guy you can potentially trade provided his value doesn't do a Grabo like-nose dive after signing his contract.

See, perhaps my biggest concern is that we've got "meh" players in key roles signed for very long periods of time (5 years for Bozak, 7 for Clarkson) at very high salaries and that is going to prevent us from improving.  So not only do I think that this year's team is weak, I'm worried that we are only going to get worse as our players on long-term contracts age.  I'd much, much rather have bought a guy like Tim Connolly for 1-2 years (eg: a guy like Derek Roy this year), like Burke did, hoping he'd pan out well enough but not committing long term if he doesn't.  And I'd much, much, much rather have signed MaCarthur to a 2-year deal instead of Clarkson to a 7-year deal.  And the offseason isn't done as I don't know what is going to happen with Franson and Kadri, but I'm concerned.

Yeah, the off-season isn't done so for me, it's really just about measuring my responses. You say that I feel that Nonis did a pretty decent job this off-season and while my reaction to that would be that he really needs to be evaluated after the Franson/Kadri situations play out because those are such big parts of this off-season but if I had to give the guy a partial grade, the difference between me and some folk here I'm responding to isn't the difference between a A+ and an F, it's the difference between, I don't know, a B- or C+ given on a friendly curve of the crummy options available to him and....what appears to be people sobbing hysterically and getting ready to light themselves on fire.

Now, maybe you think that's an unfair characterization and ok but just think of this: How much have the McLaren and Orr signings been lamented? A bit, right? Largely in terms of being evidence of misplaced priorities on Nonis' part both from a time management point of view and a team building point of view. It's contributed to the cap crunch and teams don't need two enforcers and so on and so forth, right? But neither is making enough money so that they couldn't, if space needs to be cleared up, sent down to the Marlies with any real cap space being taken. One or both of them might not make the final roster and all it costs is some of Rogers' and Bell's money. People are letting pessimism, and in some cases a slavish devotion to advanced numbers that don't have kinks worked out, override common sense.

Ok.  I do agree with multiple things:

-- Lupul and Kessel are probably the two worst defensive players on the team and playing with them probably hurt Bozak's defensive ratings.

-- The financial impact of Orr/Mclaren is effectively nil ($500K at most total).  It's Bozak/Clarkson/Bolland/Bernier/Kadri/Franson that is generating the cap pressure.  It would be nice if Carlyle played Tim Brent-style guys on the 4th line instead of fighters but it probably doesn't make too much of a difference since they play so little.  (Still, it bugs me.)

Some disagreement:

-- I agree there were no true 1st-line center options but Nonis had the option of keeping Grabbo and waiting a year to see if he rebounded playing with Kessel.  They could buy him out next year if it flops. I see it as a bonus if Grabbo's salary was too high for them to have gone out and bought Clarkson and were forced in to another option.

-- There are a lot of different ways to slice Bozak vs. Grabbo statistically.  Cumulatively, all the analyses I've seen (over different time periods, accounting for quality of linemates and how players do with and without various linemates and adjusting for offensive and defensive zone starts, etc) comes out significantly in Grabbo's favour.  I don't give Bozak much credit for his faceoff success because if it mattered much, its effect would show up in suppression of shots against or increase in shots for, which is a disaster for Bozak. However, I'm totally fine with agreeing to disagree on Bozak vs. Grabbo.  Neither one of us will convince the other.  No worries.

 

[Kin]

Ok.  I do agree with multiple things:

-- Lupul and Kessel are probably the two worst defensive players on the team and playing with them probably hurt Bozak's defensive ratings.

Sure although I'd add that I don't think they have really good measurements of defense available. Jay McClement's numbers alone from last year should tell you that.

-- The financial impact of Orr/Mclaren is effectively nil ($500K at most total).  It's Bozak/Clarkson/Bolland/Bernier/Kadri/Franson that is generating the cap pressure.  It would be nice if Carlyle played Tim Brent-style guys on the 4th line instead of fighters but it probably doesn't make too much of a difference since they play so little.  (Still, it bugs me.)

Agreed, although they still might. McLaren/Orr being signed, as I mentioned, does not mean they'll be playing every night for the Leafs.

Some disagreement:

-- I agree there were no true 1st-line center options but Nonis had the option of keeping Grabbo and waiting a year to see if he rebounded playing with Kessel.  They could buy him out next year if it flops. I see it as a bonus if Grabbo's salary was too high for them to have gone out and bought Clarkson and were forced in to another option.

1) If they were determined to sign Clarkson, I don't think Bozak vs. Grabo makes a difference. I think they'd just have bought out Liles.
2) I don't really see this as a disagreement as I absolutely agree that this was an option. The issue, and we've gone over this before, is that taking that option is not as simple as saying "Grabo yay, Bozak nay". Keeping Grabo around has considerations beyond who is the better player.

-- There are a lot of different ways to slice Bozak vs. Grabbo statistically.  Cumulatively, all the analyses I've seen (over different time periods, accounting for quality of linemates and how players do with and without various linemates and adjusting for offensive and defensive zone starts, etc) comes out significantly in Grabbo's favour...However, I'm totally fine with agreeing to disagree on Bozak vs. Grabbo.  Neither one of us will convince the other.  No worries.

Considering that I said that, in isolation, you could probably talk me into Grabo as the better option I don't think that needs to be reduced to "agree to disagree" unless you're either coming from the position that Grabovski is essentially a superstar compared to Bozak being a complete and total impediment to the team's success or you're coming from the position that these decisions can be made in isolation with absolutely no thought given to other factors beyond straight up "who is the better offensive player". Given that I don't think you would take either position, I don't think the difference between us on that issue is as wide as you're making it out to be.

I don't give Bozak much credit for his faceoff success because if it mattered much, its effect would show up in suppression of shots against or increase in shots for, which is a disaster for Bozak.

Edited to add: Sorry, I just want to focus on this and forgive me if we've covered this before. Ignore for a second the sort of very basic common sense "With 20 seconds to go, up by/down by 1 and the other team's best face-off guy out there it is very important to have someone who is not a trainwreck offensively and good at winning face-offs" but doesn't the idea that face-off wins needing to have a significant impact on either suppression of shots against/increase in shots for, have a kind of a significant flaw? I mean, the face-off is a measurement of what the center does to start the play. How the play develops from that point, leading to shots for or against, has the least to do with the center of the five guys on the ice. I mean...he doesn't win the face-off to himself.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

-- I agree there were no true 1st-line center options but Nonis had the option of keeping Grabbo and waiting a year to see if he rebounded playing with Kessel.  They could buy him out next year if it flops. I see it as a bonus if Grabbo's salary was too high for them to have gone out and bought Clarkson and were forced in to another option.

And then you're stuck with no centerman. I mean, I'm assuming you're saying they should of kept Grabovski and let Bozak walk.

I'm of the belief that Grabovski has a very similar year to this past year if he stayed with the Leafs. I just don't think Carlyle liked him(right or wrong).

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I mean, I like Grabovski despite the screw loose.

But let's be honest, he was passed on the depth chart by Kadri and his place on the team had all but evapourated.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

-- I agree there were no true 1st-line center options but Nonis had the option of keeping Grabbo and waiting a year to see if he rebounded playing with Kessel.  They could buy him out next year if it flops. I see it as a bonus if Grabbo's salary was too high for them to have gone out and bought Clarkson and were forced in to another option.

And then you're stuck with no centerman.

Kadri?

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Shouldn't the argument also take into account their respective salaries?

Bozak is due $4.2M while Grabbo was due $5.5M. Bozak was coming off the better season and is younger (and may also be key in re-signing Kessel, though that's a bit speculative). So is Grabbo worth an extra 1.3M? Last year he definitely wasn't.

I like Grabbo and all, but the contract was a mistake. Is he worth the 3M contract that he signed in Washington? Absolutely. $5.5M as the #2 or 3 behind Bozak, Kadri or a potential #1 in the next couple UFA classes (bumping him to #3)? Absolutely not. The problem is he isn't a #1C, had a very bad year compared to his salary, and if a better option came about, his contract wasn't so easy to deal (not to mention a chronic health issue).

Bozak as a 40-55pt player is easily movable @ 4.2M in the future IMO should the need arise. He's also the perfect #3C should the team ever find a suitable 1-2.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

-- I agree there were no true 1st-line center options but Nonis had the option of keeping Grabbo and waiting a year to see if he rebounded playing with Kessel.  They could buy him out next year if it flops. I see it as a bonus if Grabbo's salary was too high for them to have gone out and bought Clarkson and were forced in to another option.

And then you're stuck with no centerman.

Kadri?

Shhhh I was into the swirly pops!

 

[mr grieves]

Bozak as a 40-55pt player is easily movable @ 4.2M in the future IMO should the need arise. He's also the perfect #3C should the team ever find a suitable 1-2.

Well, more like 50 so far. But isn't that about what Matt Stajan was when he signed a smaller contract? Not many think that's moveable for much worth having.

And since Bozak's basically never played 3rd line minutes in the NHL, I'm not sure how you can be so certain that he's a 'perfect' #3C.

 

[Kin]

Well, more like 50 so far. But isn't that about what Matt Stajan was when he signed a smaller contract? Not many think that's moveable for much worth having.

Yes. That's what Matt Stajan was when he signed that deal. The reason it's not moveable now is because he hasn't maintained that level of production, not because a 50 point centre making 3 million dollars has no value. Stajan producing at that level was clearly moveable because he got moved. Bozak as a 50 point centre will similarly be moveable.

And since Bozak's basically never played 3rd line minutes in the NHL, I'm not sure how you can be so certain that he's a 'perfect' #3C.

I mean, it'd be like you knew what attributes make for a good #3 centre, had watched Tyler Bozak play hockey and then saw those attributes in Tyler Bozak's performance. WHAT IS THIS MADNESS?

 

[mr grieves]

Well, more like 50 so far. But isn't that about what Matt Stajan was when he signed a smaller contract? Not many think that's moveable for much worth having.

Yes. That's what Matt Stajan was when he signed that deal. The reason it's not moveable now is because he hasn't maintained that level of production, not because a 50 point centre making 3 million dollars has no value. Stajan producing at that level was clearly moveable because he got moved. Bozak as a 50 point centre will similarly be moveable.

I was referring to the next Stajan contract -- where Calgary signed him as a not-good but cheap, and probably moveable, 40-55 point center. My point being, the players you sign saying "well, he's not what we want on our team, but we can trade him!" tend not to be the ones who deliver at the more optimistic -- or unprecedented -- end of the anticipated production range. And so not as moveable.

And since Bozak's basically never played 3rd line minutes in the NHL, I'm not sure how you can be so certain that he's a 'perfect' #3C.

I mean, it'd be like you knew what attributes make for a good #3 centre, had watched Tyler Bozak play hockey and then saw those attributes in Tyler Bozak's performance. WHAT IS THIS MADNESS?

Yeah, except I'm still not sure what attributes anyone's seen that'd suggest he's some sort of defensive stalwart. 

 

[Kin]

I was referring to the next Stajan contract -- where Calgary signed him as a not-good but cheap, and probably moveable, 40-55 point center.

Right. Which he wasn't able to maintain. The poster in question, however, mentions Bozak as a 40-55 point center and how tradeable he'll be. I think it kind of goes without saying that if someone's production falls off a cliff that they'll be harder to trade *coughGrabocough*

However given Bozak's fairly consistent production over the course of his career, his age and Carlyle's seeming dedication to keeping him on the first line that doesn't seem to be all that serious a problem. 

Yeah, except I'm still not sure what attributes anyone's seen that'd suggest he's some sort of defensive stalwart.

You've made that pretty clear.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Bozak as a 40-55pt player is easily movable @ 4.2M in the future IMO should the need arise. He's also the perfect #3C should the team ever find a suitable 1-2.

Well, more like 50 so far. But isn't that about what Matt Stajan was when he signed a smaller contract? Not many think that's moveable for much worth having.

And since Bozak's basically never played 3rd line minutes in the NHL, I'm not sure how you can be so certain that he's a 'perfect' #3C.

You're right, the 40-50 pt part are what he is as a player right now. 40 being the low end, and 50 being what he's shown (basically) in 3 out of his 4 seasons in the NHL. I'm speculating a modest 5 pt increase is not totally crazy (just as I conceded that 40 pts is also a possibility, though somewhat unlikely given how Carlyle likes to use him).

Bozak, as a 50 pt player is movable @ 4.2 per. Will we get a great player or top prospect. Unlikely. Bozak as a 60 pt player (I'm not sure of the likelihood of this ) can definitely garner a decent return. He's not some boat anchor contract that the Leafs are likely to regret and should his production drop to 40ish pts making him immovable (a la Grabbo), he's a) paid less and b) can slot in as the #3 albeit an expensive one.

Given the relative similarity between career PPG averages, I'm having a hard time figuring out why Grabbo @ 5.5M deserved another year and buying him out was a mistake while Bozak @ 4.2M should've been let go and signing him was a mistake.

EDIT: Looked at another way, Grabbo started to go the way of Matt Stajan but was still worth a shot @ much more salary, while Bozak (worse case scenario) could go the way of Matt Stajan, making him a bad choice. I don't see the logic, other than blind faith in Grabbo's abilities over Bozak (albeit a statistically negligible advantage).

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Considering Kadri and Franson still need to be signed and the Leafs have very little cap space less was keeping Grabovski over Bozak and having that extra 1.3 million on the books even an option?

 

[louisstamos]

Considering Kadri and Franson still need to be signed and the Leafs have very little cap space less was keeping Grabovski over Bozak and having that extra 1.3 million on the books even an option?

Well, the compliance buyout that was used on Grabvoski could have been used on Liles instead.  So, although you'd lose $1.3 mil on the difference between Grabovski and Bozak, it would nonetheless have given at least another $2.55 to split between Franson and Kadri.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Considering Kadri and Franson still need to be signed and the Leafs have very little cap space less was keeping Grabovski over Bozak and having that extra 1.3 million on the books even an option?

Well, the compliance buyout that was used on Grabvoski could have been used on Liles instead.  So, although you'd lose $1.3 mil on the difference between Grabovski and Bozak, it would nonetheless have given at least another $2.55 to split between Franson and Kadri.

So lose Liles and Bozak for Grabovski with the hopes he turns it around?(btw, I'm pretty sure I read that some wanted to keep that compliance incase Graboski didn't turn it around)..And, without a compliance buyout left(if they did indeed use it on Liles), the Leafs would then somehow shed Grabovski's 5.5million a year salary next year if he remained a 3rd liner with little to no upside on either side of the puck? Which IMO was inevitable as Carlyle doesn't like the way he plays(and I can't really blame him).

 

[louisstamos]

Considering Kadri and Franson still need to be signed and the Leafs have very little cap space less was keeping Grabovski over Bozak and having that extra 1.3 million on the books even an option?

Well, the compliance buyout that was used on Grabvoski could have been used on Liles instead.  So, although you'd lose $1.3 mil on the difference between Grabovski and Bozak, it would nonetheless have given at least another $2.55 to split between Franson and Kadri.

So lose Liles and Bozak for Grabovski with the hopes he turns it around?(btw, I'm pretty sure I read that some wanted to keep that compliance incase Graboski didn't turn it around)..And, without a compliance buyout left(if they did indeed use it on Liles), the Leafs would then somehow shed Grabovski's 5.5million a year salary next year if he remained a 3rd liner with little to no upside on either side of the puck? Which IMO was inevitable as Carlyle doesn't like the way he plays(and I can't really blame him).

I'm pretty sure we've circled these wagons before, so I won't go into much depth, but yeah - keep Grabovski, put him in a scoring role and hope that he turns it around.  Some players have bad years.  Getzlaf had his lowest scoring full professional season in 2011-12 - but he rebounded and had a very good season this year.

I just think that Grabovski is a better player than Bozak, and has a better track record.  I don't think a lockout shortened season where he was battling a stomach ailment is the best way to judge him.  I would have rolled into camp with Kadri, Grabbo and Bolland and have them battle it out for the #1 spot (and subsequently, the #2 spot).  If Grabbo ends up on the 3rd line again, fine, at the end of the season you look into your options with him.

That being said, I do understand the politics of hockey, and if Bozak will be the different between Phil Kessel staying or going, then having him stay may work out after all.

 

[jdh1]

My feelings on Grabovski is that,for him to be effective in his offence he needs to play a chippy somewhat aggresive style to make room for himself...and I'm not sure wether he's able to keep that up.He's taken some pretty big hits already in his last few years in the NHL.