Potvin29 said:
Nik the Trik said:
mr grieves said:
Grabo on a scoring line...
2008/09 -- 20 goals, 48 points in 78 GP
2009/10 -- 10 goals, 35 points in 59 GP
2010/11 -- 29 goals, 58 points in 81 GP
2011/12 -- 23 goals, 51 points in 74 GP
That's still not much of a basis for the question at hand. Over those four years Grabo had 192 points in 292 games, that works out to 53.9 points over an 82 game schedule. Bozak, in his three years where he was playing on the first line with consistent linemates, scored 102 points over 156 games or 53.6 points per 82 games.
When you consider that Grabo's best year, the 29 goal 58 point season, actually came in a year where he got the most ice time and PP ice time among centers on the team I'd say the basis for Grabo significantly outscoring Bozak as a #2 basically doesn't exist unless you figure Grabo's going to see top line PP time or develop a ton of chemistry with Erat and whoever.
From 2009 to 2013, at 5 on 5 Grabovski put up 1.87 points/60 (in 2870:43 minutes) compared to Bozak's 1.52 (in 2864:14 minutes) (link:
here). If you go from 2010 to 2013 it is 1.86 (in 3652:40 minutes) to 1.34 (in 3354:12 minutes) (link:
here. Even going from 2011-13, Grabovski comes out ahead (
link).
*Using 5 on 5 data for the bigger sample size/most of the games are played 5 on 5*
Here are some more 5-on-5 stats that compare top UFA centers this year (Grabovski, Lecavalier, Filppula, Weiss, Ribeiro, Roy, Bozak):
http://hockeyanalysis.com/2013/07/05/evaluating-top-ufa-centers-and-why-you-dont-want-bozak/
Over the last 3 seasons, Bozak finishes last in points/60, goals/60, assists/60, % of goals that the player had a point in while he was on the ice. Of course, this is while playing with vastly superior offensive linemates to Grabbo at least.
Here's something I don't quite get: Overall, over the last couple of months on these boards, the impression that I get is that Nik is arguing that Nonis did a pretty decent job this offseason, from a fan's perspective. But at the same time, I believe I've also heard Nik say that we've got some "meh" players playing key roles. Nik thinks* that both Grabbo and Bozak are kind of "meh" so it doesn't matter that much which one we have.** Aren't you upset we've locked ourselves in to a "meh" team? Perhaps you are just banking on massive cap increases that will allow us to play a guy like Bozak on the 3rd line while sliding in, say, a top UFA center in the future?
See, perhaps my biggest concern is that we've got "meh" players in key roles signed for very long periods of time (5 years for Bozak, 7 for Clarkson) at very high salaries and that is going to prevent us from improving. So not only do I think that this year's team is weak, I'm worried that we are only going to get worse as our players on long-term contracts age. I'd much, much rather have bought a guy like Tim Connolly for 1-2 years (eg: a guy like Derek Roy this year), like Burke did, hoping he'd pan out well enough but not committing long term if he doesn't. And I'd much, much, much rather have signed MaCarthur to a 2-year deal instead of Clarkson to a 7-year deal. And the offseason isn't done as I don't know what is going to happen with Franson and Kadri, but I'm concerned.
* Correct me if I'm wrong -- I'm not trying to put words in your mouth. I'm just curious about your opinions.
** This is compounded, of course, by the fact that I think Grabbo is far from "meh" -- all the stats guys seem to conclude that over the last 3 years he's been a top-end 2nd line center or perhaps bottom-end 1st line center. Whereas Bozak contributes like a 3rd line center that is bad at defense.
