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Jonathan Drouin requests trade

Tigger said:
I agree though I think Tampa would have to add to that, how much I'm not sure but especially so if the Leafs are taking back a bad contract to balance things out.

Yeah, they'd probably have to include a 2nd round pick or something. Drouin's value is as good or better than whatever else teams are likely to offer for JvR, but the Leafs would likely have to take Carle back to make the cap work, so they'd need something to offset that.
 
bustaheims said:
Tigger said:
I agree though I think Tampa would have to add to that, how much I'm not sure but especially so if the Leafs are taking back a bad contract to balance things out.

Yeah, they'd probably have to include a 2nd round pick or something. Drouin's value is as good or better than whatever else teams are likely to offer for JvR, but the Leafs would likely have to take Carle back to make the cap work, so they'd need something to offset that.

That pick and that Tampa player were around what I was considering ( including the little bit of barf I had thinking of watching Carle in a Leafs uniform ). Somewhere in the back of my head I don't want the Leafs to help Tampa with their cap issues, y'know, just in case.
 
Tigger said:
bustaheims said:
I could definitely see a deal with JvR and Drouin as the main pieces. I also wonder if the relationship between Shanahan and Yzerman could help grease the wheel, so to speak.

I agree though I think Tampa would have to add to that, how much I'm not sure but especially so if the Leafs are taking back a bad contract to balance things out.

I don't disagree that the Leafs could ask for that but "need"? I get the sense that if Drouin is really available Tampa will be in a pretty good position in terms of interested parties.

So are you saying that, straight up, you'd pass on Drouin/Carle for JVR?
 
Nik the Trik said:
Tigger said:
bustaheims said:
I could definitely see a deal with JvR and Drouin as the main pieces. I also wonder if the relationship between Shanahan and Yzerman could help grease the wheel, so to speak.

I agree though I think Tampa would have to add to that, how much I'm not sure but especially so if the Leafs are taking back a bad contract to balance things out.

I don't disagree that the Leafs could ask for that but "need"? I get the sense that if Drouin is really available Tampa will be in a pretty good position in terms of interested parties.

So are you saying that, straight up, you'd pass on Drouin/Carle for JVR?

I might, though I think, considering the circumstances, that JVR for Drouin alone is a bit lopsided so that's not entirely surprising. I say this admitting that I really don't know enough about Drouin to say for certain.
 
Tigger said:
I might, though I think, considering the circumstances, that JVR for Drouin alone is a bit lopsided so that's not entirely surprising. I say this admitting that I really don't know enough about Drouin to say for certain.

Huh. I'd agree it seems lopsided. I just think it might be tilted the other way.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Huh. I'd agree it seems lopsided. I just think it might be tilted the other way.

Hard to say, as there isn't a whole lot of precedent for these types of deals, but I'd disagree. The closest would be Turris to Ottawa, which isn't a perfect match, but it's pretty close (both were 3rd overall picks who asked for trades, with rather unimpressive rookie seasons - Turris was a year older, though). Ottawa gave up Rundblad (a relatively well regarded but not quite blue chip prospect at the time) and a 2nd round pick. Drouin may have slightly more value, as his ceiling is expected to be a little higher than Turris' was at the time (not drastically, though - 70-75 point player compared to a 60-65 point one). So, his value on his own is probably pretty similar.

I think sometimes we forget that prospects, no matter how highly touted, generally don't have the kind of trade value we ascribe to them (elite, freshly drafted players like McDavid excepted, of course).  Could Drouin one day be more valuable than JvR? Absolutely. In fact, for any team interested in trading for him, that's the hope. However, in terms of value on the trade market, he's not there yet.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Tigger said:
I might, though I think, considering the circumstances, that JVR for Drouin alone is a bit lopsided so that's not entirely surprising. I say this admitting that I really don't know enough about Drouin to say for certain.

Huh. I'd agree it seems lopsided. I just think it might be tilted the other way.

Yeah, I think this trade would be great for the Leafs if it's Carle/Drouin for JVR.  You have two more years of JVR after this one before he becomes a UFA and you either give him a big payday or lose him for nothing.  Drouin still on an entry level for next year and then an RFA after that, so you control him for a while.  I doubt the Leafs are contenders in 2016-17.  They could be in 2017-18 with the way parity is in this league, but you could also argue that Drouin has a good chance at catching up to him by then anyway.  Plus trading JVR now helps the Tank if that's your bag. 

Really no idea how this sits with Tampa.  Hopefully they become as desperate to move him as the Leafs moving Kessel.
 
bustaheims said:
Hard to say, as there isn't a whole lot of precedent for these types of deals, but I'd disagree. The closest would be Turris to Ottawa, which isn't a perfect match, but it's pretty close (both were 3rd overall picks who asked for trades, with rather unimpressive rookie seasons - Turris was a year older, though). Ottawa gave up Rundblad (a relatively well regarded but not quite blue chip prospect at the time) and a 2nd round pick. Drouin may have slightly more value, as his ceiling is expected to be a little higher than Turris' was at the time (not drastically, though - 70-75 point player compared to a 60-65 point one). So, his value on his own is probably pretty similar.

I think sometimes we forget that prospects, no matter how highly touted, generally don't have the kind of trade value we ascribe to them (elite, freshly drafted players like McDavid excepted, of course).  Could Drouin one day be more valuable than JvR? Absolutely. In fact, for any team interested in trading for him, that's the hope. However, in terms of value on the trade market, he's not there yet.

I don't necessarily disagree with you here aside from how impressive Drouin's season was(at 19, scoring 32 points in 70 games on the team's 3rd/4th line) I just think you're only sort of looking at one half of the equation. The other thing to consider is...what's JVR worth?

We do have slightly more precedent for that. Names that come to mind as being sort of similar are Bobby Ryan, Milan Lucic, maybe Brandon Saad and when you look at what those guys got dealt for it tends to be a good young player/prospect(Silferberg, Jones, Anisimov) a mid-late first round pick or the equivalent prospect(10th, 13th, Marko Dano) and then some additional stuff thrown into the mix like B or C level prospects.

So when you look at those packages you have to ask, would any of them let you trade into the top 5? By all accounts Boston tried like crazy to trade two of their mid-first round picks to Carolina so they could draft Hanifin. So if JVR is worth a mid first rounder and other stuff that works out to a first rounder...I still think a top five pick or equivalent prospect tends to be more highly rated. Drouin is definitely not of the McDavid variety re: prospects, but he's also not on the Niederreiter end of the scale. I think he represents the value of where he was picked pretty fairly.

When you're out there trading top 3 picks, that's how you land guys like Alexei Yashin and not so much 60 point wingers.
 
Drouin wasn't just on the 3rd/4th line last season, he spent almost as much time with Stamkos as he did with Paquette.  He seems to have been moved around a bit, but wasn't solely in the bottom 6.

Bobby Ryan returned a pretty good prospect, another prospect and a pick which ended up being top 10. 

I think teams probably value a top 5 pick more than they value Drouin right now.  I'm sure many teams look at him and say "well most elite high picks are contributing in the NHL consistently by his age" or something to that effect.

I think a big part of the difference is - if you're trading a top 5 pick, odds are your team isn't very good and you're less likely to want to trade it for an established player if you think you're still years off.  Whereas Tampa probably sees themselves as a contender right now and I don't know that Drouin, already drafted and into his pro career, should be viewed the same as simply a draft pick.  JVR and Ryan were top 3 picks too but it's not the same as dealing an undrafted pick.
 
Where a pick ends up in the draft doesn't retroactively change the value of it at the time it was dealt. Ottawa was coming off of two playoff seasons, the more recent one despite Karlsson and Anderson being hurt, so while a downward slide was certainly possible, there's really no way that Ottawa could have sold Anaheim on that pick being likely to be the #10 pick. Especially not when you consider that adding Bobby Ryan was supposed to improve the team too. So, again, a mid-first round pick, a pretty good player/prospect and then a lesser prospect.

And I think that teams would only look at Drouin in the way you describe if they think he'd been given a fair chance at contributing the way other top 3 picks had. You say he played "almost as much" with Stamkos as he did with Paquette but that still doesn't account for his time. He played the bulk of his time with significantly lesser lights and still only averaged 13 minutes a game. Despite that he was 75th in the league in points per 60 at 5 on 5(among those who played 500 minutes) and this year he was down but only to 112th. He stacks up pretty well in that regard to someone like RNH who's basically been allowed to roam free because winning is a secondary concern in Edmonton.
 
Since the first lockout 16 players have been moved out of the top 5 draft picks.

Griffin Reinhart - 3rd overall - For 16th + 33rd overall picks
Tyler Seguin - 2nd overall - With Peverley + Button for Eriksson + Morrow + Smith + Fraser
Nino Niederreiter - 5th overall - Clutterbuck + 3rd
Evander Kane - 4th overall - With Bogosian for Myers + Stafford + Armia + Lemieux + 1st
Brayden Schenn - 5th overall - With Simmonds + 2nd for Mike Richards + Bordson
Zach Bogosian - 3rd overall - With Kane for Myers + Stafford + Armia + Lemieux + 1st
Luke Schenn - 5th overall - JVR
JVR - 2nd overall - Luke Schenn
Kyle Turris - 3rd overall - Rundblad + 2nd
Thomas Hickey - 4th overall - Waiver pick up in his 4th year
Erik Johnson - 1st overall - With a 1st for Shattenkirk + Chris Stewart + 2nd
Jordan Staal - 2nd overall - Brendan Sutter + Dumoulin + 1st round pick
Phil Kessel - 5th overall - 1st + 1st + 2nd
Bobby Ryan - 2nd overall - Silferberg + Noesen + 1st
Jack Johnson - 3rd overall - With a 1st for Jeff Carter
Benoit Pouliot - 4th overall - Guillaume Latendresse

The value is pretty much all over the map though.  Guys who received the biggest payouts, Kessel, Ryan, Seguin were guys who had established themselves as elite offensive players at the time of their trades. 

I don't see how the value of Drouin could be anywhere near Bobby Ryan when Ryan had four 30 goal seasons under his belt.  Kessel was coming off a 36 goal season at the time of his trade.  Seguin was coming off 29 goals and 16 in 48 games during the lockout season.

Jonathan Drouin's value has to be far closer to Griffin Reinhart/Nino Niederreiter level than those guys.  Reinhart went for a known mid-1st round pick  and an early 2nd round pick.  Niederreiter went for a 3rd round pick and a decent 3rd liner.  If I was looking for a comparable kind of trade it would probably be something like Pittsburgh's 1st round pick + Percy.
 
Who do you think said that Drouin is worth the same as Bobby Ryan? Ryan was being held up as a comparable for JVR's value.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Who do you think said that Drouin is worth the same as Bobby Ryan? Ryan was being held up as a comparable for JVR's value.

I wasn't implying that anyone did although I have seen some people suggesting stupid packages like Drouin for Rielly or 1st + top prospect nonsense in other places.  Just laying a clear distinction between the top value guys and the lesser packages. 
 
L K said:
I wasn't implying that anyone did although I have seen some people suggesting stupid packages like Drouin for Rielly or 1st + top prospect nonsense in other places.  Just laying a clear distinction between the top value guys and the lesser packages.

I think the problem with your list is that there's really no comparing trading a 24 year old with 300+ NHL games to a 20 year old regardless of where they were drafted. Like busta said, we're pretty low on comparables for Drouin being:

A) As young as he is
B) As highly regarded as he was at his draft
C) Who's put up numbers that, at the very least I've managed to show, are intriguing if not excellent since being drafted.

Honestly, I don't think we have a good comparable.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Honestly, I don't think we have a good comparable.

Not really. Turris really is the closest, but there are some significant differences there, too - Turris had held out after his ELC expired, had been in the organization a little longer, etc. He was also highly regarded in his draft year (he was a potential 1st overall pick that year), but that was considered to be a weaker draft class.

If I had to guess, unless Drouin is traded as part of a package for an established player, the return on him is goign to be a Kapanen level prospect and a pick that's dependent on the position of the other team in the standings (late 1st or early 2nd).
 
bustaheims said:
If I had to guess, unless Drouin is traded as part of a package for an established player, the return on him is goign to be a Kapanen level prospect and a pick that's dependent on the position of the other team in the standings (late 1st or early 2nd).

I agree with that. If Tampa trades him for prospects it's pretty unlikely they'll get a prospect on his level in return. I think it's pretty unlikely that they don't look for something more immediate though.
 
Just because I was curious if my memory held up, it definitely looks like Niederreiter was a bit of an odd pick, even if he wasn't quite the reach I remember him being. TSN had him 7th, Central Scouting had him 12th among NA skaters and he scored 60 points in 65 games in his draft year on a pretty good Portland team.
 
Walsh with a bombshell:

CZNBT2cWIAYuMi_.jpg
 

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